Money or Strategic Interests?

[Pakistan First]

Lately, a lot of discussions about Pak-China, Pak-Russia and Pak-Turkey relationship have been derailed by Indian members of PDF, for example, in case of Pak-Russia relationship, by citing that Pakistan hasn't got the money to persuade Russia to sell it high-end military goodies like the Su-35.

I am wondering, is it money that has made Russia approach Pakistan (and Pakistan reciprocating) and offer to re-write and strengthen the relationship, OR, is it related to Russia's medium and long-terms plans in the region and beyond. If earlier, then Russia really doesn't need Pakistan at all and there was no point in Russia opening up those tightly-shut windows and doors towards Pakistan, as it did recently. If the later, then it has nothing to do with financial gains out of military sales, but has much much more to do with forming a strong group/block in the region, starting from Russia right upto Europe's entry gate, Turkey.

I am of the view that all this is a part of a much larger and grander plan and Pakistan, with it's military prowess, nuclear capability and strategic geographical location, offers to be a quintessential ally for both Russia's and China's future strategic plans in the region. Iran also is an indispensable variable in this equation and as important as Pakistan for Russia and China. Short-term monetary gains arising from military sales transactions is not the goal of either China or Russia, but forming a solid eastern block in the region which is capable of countering any US-led NATO offensive in the region, is. Once the later is achieved, the monetary gains to reap in the medium to long term will be exponentially higher than short term gains.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Russia never did closed it's doors and windows to Pakistan, The Ilyushin transporters and the Mi-17 tells a different story.

 

[Pakistan First]

Russia never did closed it's doors and windows to Pakistan, The Ilyushin transporters and the Mi-17 tells a different story.

You didn't comment on the topic. In your opinion, is it about short-term monetary gains from military transactions or a part of medium to long term strategic objectives.

 

[Skull and Bones]

You didn't comment on the topic. In your opinion, is it about short-term monetary gains from military transactions or a part of medium to long term strategic objectives.

The strategic foot hold what you've been trying to imply, even Iran has to offer the same, along with that a better economy. And Russia cannot sacrifice Indian market for the short term monetary gain. Though Pakistan will have access to Russian platforms like BMPs, Helicopters, short range air defense or even tanks.

Pakistan had a chance in the early 90s during the USSR era, they'd have gladly supplied weapons to increase strategic footage in south east asia to drive away the US influence. But, given the condition of Russian economy, they cannot afford to lose a market like India just to offer 20-30 Su-35s to Pakistan.

And during the time of sanctions, Russians were arrogant with their products, as the western doors were closed for us, now even the Russians know their position, and cannot afford to upset Indian defense ministry, as they are still in race for the prospective 35-40 billion dollars of worth of business, and not to forget their contribution in the civilian nuclear sector.

They can never get hold of strategic assets that can tilt the equation of war in Pakistan's favor. Like SSNs, Carriers, long range nuclear capable bombers, or S-400.

 

[cerberus]

as they are still in race for the prospective 35-40 billion dollars of worth of business, and not to forget their contribution in the civilian nuclear sector.

Mean while

Russia, India agree to build 2 Kudankulam nuke power units
http://in.rbth.com/economics/cooper...to-build-2-kudankulam-nuke-power-units_629833

 

[Indrajit]

You didn't comment on the topic. In your opinion, is it about short-term monetary gains from military transactions or a part of medium to long term strategic objectives.

Russia needs the money, Pakistan location offers nothing for the Russians since as has been pointed out, it is far better to do that with Iran with the added benefit of not upsetting India.

In any case, as of now, all there has been is some fairly general talk. Compare that with what the Russians are doing with India in the meantime. It would only make sense to even discuss this only when something substantial has happened between Russia & Pakistan.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Meanwhile Russian GDP decreased from it's peak of 2.2 trillion in 2013 to 1.3 trillion in 2015, and is forecasted to reach 1.6 trillion by 2020, while Indian GDP is forecasted to reach 3.1 trillion within the same time frame, and that forecast is not even considering the implementation of GST.

If our defense budget increases proportionately, we will be spending over 110 billion a year.

 

[Salahuddin Ayubi]

The Indian mindset, for obvious reasons, will remain stuck with "India will be able to arm-twist Russia out of selling strategically important military assets to Pakistan".

Russian economy is, even now, much much larger and stronger than India's. just compare the two using any easily-available online tools and you'll see.

Russia's decisions, which it has already taken, is based on long term goals.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Lately, a lot of discussions about Pak-China, Pak-Russia and Pak-Turkey relationship have been derailed by Indian members of PDF, for example, in case of Pak-Russia relationship, by citing that Pakistan hasn't got the money to persuade Russia to sell it high-end military goodies like the Su-35.

I am wondering, is it money that has made Russia approach Pakistan (and Pakistan reciprocating) and offer to re-write and strengthen the relationship, OR, is it related to Russia's medium and long-terms plans in the region and beyond. If earlier, then Russia really doesn't need Pakistan at all and there was no point in Russia opening up those tightly-shut windows and doors towards Pakistan, as it did recently. If the later, then it has nothing to do with financial gains out of military sales, but has much much more to do with forming a strong group/block in the region, starting from Russia right upto Europe's entry gate, Turkey.

I am of the view that all this is a part of a much larger and grander plan and Pakistan, with it's military prowess, nuclear capability and strategic geographical location, offers to be a quintessential ally for both Russia's and China's future strategic plans in the region. Iran also is an indispensable variable in this equation and as important as Pakistan for Russia and China. Short-term monetary gains arising from military sales transactions is not the goal of either China or Russia, but forming a solid eastern block in the region which is capable of countering any US-led NATO offensive in the region, is. Once the later is achieved, the monetary gains to reap in the medium to long term will be exponentially higher than short term gains.

You, sir, pose a valid question. Sadly this important topic will be derailed in an hour at max. The indian mob will come in hordes and nothing constructive will be done...

Sad.

However, this money business is a bit overrated. The idea that russia will only need money and only the indian empire can provide this is rather self defeating. China has put more money in Rus economy till now than all of the indian empire's purchases put together.... So point is a dead cow or horse.

Sino-Rus axis has certain strategic understandings where Chinese capital comes in when/where necessary.

Your great country is part of China's own Asian Pivot. Hence, the long term planning dictates alignment of interests. So, you will soon see greater interaction between Pak and Rus on many fronts not just arms trade..which btw is benefitial to both.

ME is being open game and Rus wants in on both Iran & GCC front. For that to happen China will be needed to pull it off. Here in is near future the new Security Gaurantor of ME...i.e. Pak. All three major powers i.e. US-EU, Rus and China will welcome such a role by Pak not to mention the GCC itself.

So, yeah money is no problem.

The problem is that your good thread will die unnecessary death at the hands of organised mob...with its heartburn and negativity.

All the best to your great country...Now it is time for Pak to finally come out of the cold and take the leadership of its designated area of responsibility.

 

[Skull and Bones]

The Indian mindset, for obvious reasons, will remain stuck with "India will be able to arm-twist Russia out of selling strategically important military assets to Pakistan".

Russian economy is, even now, much much larger and stronger than India's. just compare the two using any easily-available online tools and you'll see.

Russia's decisions, which it has already taken, is based on long term goals.

Really, what was the size of Russian economy in 2015?

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Study of Russian geography is interesting. If we look at the recent events concerning Russia, one thing is amply clear that west lead by America is trying its best to chock ingress/egress points of Russia by having their poodles in the states which form the chocking points. Allow me to explain. Please refer to the points A, B, C and D.

A. First America lead west tried to chock the upper basin of black sea by having a "regime change" in Ukraine. Ended up screwing Ukraine and with forceful annexation of Crimea peninsula. Russian response at first looked unreasonable but now it is clear why.

B. Failing in Ukraine, they tried chock the lower basin of Black sea, the Bosporus, by creating tension between Turkey and Russia. The pilot who shoot down Russian jet was a Gulenist. We all know where the strings of Gulen movement is pulled from. Failing to get any meaning mileage out of that event, they tried to have a regime change in Turkey as well.

C. From Russian eastern flanks, I dont have any credible data but I am guessing not much trade happen with outside world.

D. Its frozen sea up there.



In this current geopolitical situation, It will be extremely wise and important for Russia to have good relations with Pakistan and actively work with both China and Pakistan to integrate in CPEC. They can take China->Pakistan and off to Arabian Sea route via Gawadar as Afghanistan situation is not going to improve anytime soon.

It is in Russian own interests and I am certain they know that as well. Indian historic military relations with Russia and how that can effect Pak-Russia equation is quite frankly irrelevant.

 

[Salahuddin Ayubi]

There are numerous Economic indicators and not just one. Refer readily available online resources and then come back to discuss.

 

[Salahuddin Ayubi]

Really, what was the size of Russian economy in 2015?

India's $2T GDP is for a population of 1.4b while Russia's $1.3T GDP is for a population of 144m. Go figure.

 

[Salahuddin Ayubi]

http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/India/Russia/Economy

Use the above for comparison

 

[Salahuddin Ayubi]

You, sir, pose a valid question. Sadly this important topic will be derailed in an hour at max. The indian mob will come in hordes and nothing constructive will be done...

Sad.

However, this money business is a bit overrated. The idea that russia will only need money and only the indian empire can provide this is rather self defeating. China has put more money in Rus economy till now than all of the indian empire's purchases put together.... So point is a dead cow or horse.

Sino-Rus axis has certain strategic understandings where Chinese capital comes in when/where necessary.

Your great country is part of China's own Asian Pivot. Hence, the long term planning dictates alignment of interests. So, you will soon see greater interaction between Pak and Rus on many fronts not just arms trade..which btw is benefitial to both.

ME is being open game and Rus wants in on both Iran & GCC front. For that to happen China will be needed to pull it off. Here in is near future the new Security Gaurantor of ME...i.e. Pak. All three major powers i.e. US-EU, Rus and China will welcome such a role by Pak not to mention the GCC itself.

So, yeah money is no problem.

The problem is that your good thread will die unnecessary death at the hands of organised mob...with its heartburn and negativity.

All the best to your great country...Now it is time for Pak to finally come out of the cold and take the leadership of its designated area of responsibility.

Great post