Modi's 'Mad Dog Posture' - Credible threat or a populist farce?

[Star Wars]

You're right, we had very little input on the matter. Apart from a few "red carpet welcomes" on his trips to China, we had no real way of ensuring his victory. Just a few hints here and there.

Of course, nobody wondered "Why the Hell is China giving Modi a red carpet welcome if he isn't even the leader of India yet?"

Luckily people don't tend to think too much about that, like why a leader of a state/province is getting a welcome that is reserved for a head of state? Isn't that strange?

Not at all, Chinese saw the writing on the wall far before any western analyst could . It does make you wonder how far the co-operation goes .

 

[Phoenix89]

How should Pakistan calculate Modi's 'Mad Dog Posture' ?

As we're at it, he's trying to fan jingoism among his electorate during polls. Bashing Pakistan with 'trigger diplomacy' has worked historically well. Just start a flame war accusing Pakistan of imaginary border violations and supporting Kashmiris...the next thing you'll know is that those who can't even have a palmful of boiled rice and thin dal too would pick up their unwashed dhotis and get high on jingoism.

That is all understood. He is a mass murderer who's comfy with a bloodbath, he is an Islamophobic nutbag and a product of Hindutva ideology which seeks a mythical kingdom he plans to rule while riding a cow.

On the other hand are his real world limitations. He runs the only country in the world geographically locked between two nuclear armed enemies which are allied to each other. A weakening economy, a limit on the use of conventional military force and an almost complete string of pearls.

The question is...if Modi's policy towards Pakistan is going to earn him any more cookies than jingoistic hoo ha and populist votes?

If he commits aggression against Pakistan, either covertly or overtly...what should be our response to restrain him?

What does this mean for China and its interests in Pakistan and the region?

Thoughts?

"locked between two nuclear armed enemies"

Funny how you always bring nuclear bomb in almost everthing, this doesnt work buddy. Paksitan doest have balls to use that, infact in current senario no one can do that.

Chill, don't take that bomb so seriously. Lagta hai jaise tum logo ka jinna marna sab uss bomb pe depend karta hai.

 

[waz]

There have been many other "tough" leaders, they come and go.

We have plenty of our own issues. Apart from the border issue (which happens now and then) we haven't seen much else from him.

 

[MarkovChain]

Modi is an easy target because of his nationalistic background, his belief in Hindutva (a common cultural identity for Indians) and of course, the Gujarat riots. On the flip side, he comes with a proven track record of development and ability to act more like a CEO than a prime minister in getting work done. Any Indian, Hindu or Muslim, would rate his performance in the first 6 months as nothing short of spectacular. He's reduced bureaucracy, introduced measures to improve efficiency of operations, eliminated unnecessary subsidies and strengthened strategic ties with certain countries. These will eventually translate into improved growth and standard of living and were long over due.

With regard to his policy on Pakistan and China, consider the below :-

1) Tough stance acts as a deterrence:
Nations will not go to war. Nuclear countries particularly will not go to war with one another. Skirmishes are a simply a question of mind games. China is militarily stronger than us - but will not unnecessarily engage with us in random skirmishes if they see the cost of skirmish to be greater than the benefit derived from it. China I'm sure will do the same to India if it tries to engage. This indirectly instills natural levels of discipline and leads quicker diplomatic resolution on the border matter.

2) Exploiting Pakistan's internal weakness:
Every country would put pressure on its rivals when given the opportunity. While India has no objective of invading Pakistan - given the history of relationship, why would we not attack Pakistan's weakness? Sharif is being accused of vote rigging, Imran Khan is being backed by their army for a coup, they are engaged in the north and with Iran. Instability is good for your rival!

3) Militant threat
Any Pakistani who refutes this is living in denial. Pakistan is the training camp for most Islamic militants. ISI trains them and there is enough evidence for it. We don't want them in India - thank you.

4) Terrorists have no place in international diplomacy
Pakistan holding talks with an organization considered a terrorist group by India is ludicrous. No nation will succumb to the demands of the terrorists. Kashmir is the internal matter of India and Pakistan - not random terrorist organization that engage in guerrilla warfare - who will eventually be eliminated anyway.

The position he is in is not different to Putin or Merkel, Israeli/Japanese ministers - who are all known for their nationalistic hard line stance, considered mad by segments of the world - but things are working for them.

If the US, or Russia or China or Germany were in our position, they would do the same Modi does. It's the best strategy forward.

 

[Storm Force]

Modi is much smarter than any tin pot military dictator in our region.

He will entice fdi by engaging USA and China and japan.

With Pakistan I suspect iron fist atitude over Kashmir saichen and loc.

 

[TankMan]

"locked between two nuclear armed enemies"

Finny how you always bring nuclear bomb in almost everthing, this doesnt work buddy. Paksitan doest have balls to use that, infact in current senario no one can do that.

Chill, don't take that bomb so seriously. Lagta hai jaise tum logo ka jinna marna sab uss bomb pe depend karta hai.

Obviously you have no idea how nuclear deterrence works. It's not about balls. It's about being crazy enough to turn south Asia into a nuclear wasteland. The whole world should be thankful that Pakistan isn't as crazy as Modi. Pakistan will only use the nuke if it is threatened with complete destruction or if it is certain that India is unable to retaliate. During the Cold War, even the US and USSR didn't ''have balls''. We'd all be dead if they did.

Chill, don't take that bomb so seriously.

You should take it really seriously.


The thing about Modi is that he might actually start believing all his brainless bravado. He obviously underestimates Pakistan and overestimates India's strength, however, he is good when it comes to leadership and politics.

Pakistan should play it really, really carefully, like they're doing right now. Proportionately counter the border firing, use international channels to ensure India's narrative isn't taken too seriously and Pakistan is not isolated and do not try anything stupid (like ''jaw breaking response''). That will make sure India will not be able to gain the political or strategic upper hand on Pakistan.

 

[Sugarcane]

Tell me, what is the foundation of the Indian Union? Answer: "Unity in Diversity".
Now what better way to break that foundation, than to have Indians elect a mass murderer of Muslims to be their leader? That is what you call breaking the foundations.

Electing or praising mass murderer is not big issue as it's not new thing in India, you shouldn't forget that Indra & Rajiv killed more Sikhs than Modi killed Muslims. Difference is that under Modi the extreme right winger is enjoying full freedom and became more powerful, so they will push their agendas. How Modi manage them will have long lasting effect on India.

 

[Kompromat]

How do you calculate a posture?

Its a military term. If you don't understand it, please refrain from quoting.

 

[jaunty]

Its a military term. If you don't understand it, please refrain from quoting.

I am always ready to learn new things. Any source of the "military term"? I tried to google it, did not return anything--military or non military.

 

[Sugarcane]

I am always ready to learn new things. Any source of the "military term"? I tried to google it, did not return anything--military or non military.

Urban Dictionary: mad dog

 

[jaunty]

Urban Dictionary: mad dog

I was asking something else.

 

[Kompromat]

I think improved Sino-Pakistani cooperation is one vital aspect of this puzzle. I believe 1962 was a huge wasted opportunity (due to the pro-US policies of Ayub Khan), but was certainly not the last opportunity.

Unfortunately most of that coordination is happening behind closed doors, so can't be a part of our discussion.

Modi is going to make the same mistake that Nehru did, of overstretching himself. The question is, when Modi inevitably makes that one big mistake (Forward policy 2.0), will we be there to catch him? And how will we deal with the aftermath.



Modi's tendencies are directed at Indian Muslims, he has no such leverage over Chinese or Pakistani citizens, and both countries are very much able to pay him back in kind. As we have seen during the last Pakistan-India border incident over the LOC, with Modi declaring "We taught them a lesson"... only for artillery fire to resume the next day.

In fact we have seen Modi fall flat on his face (what we call 仆街 in Cantonese) twice already. First with the so-called "Chinese incursion" during Xi Jinping's visit to India, which India tried to pass off as some disconnect between the CPC and the PLA, which any Chinese person knows is pure BS. Xi Jinping has consolidated his power base in the CPC and the PLA to an extent that has not been seen in the last few decades, just check for the name Xu Caihou to see an example.

The second was with his claim to have "taught a lesson" to Pakistan, only to have firing resume the next day. He is stretching the limits of his capabilities, and when he finds out that returning India to 8%+ growth is impossible, he will have to find another way to consolidate his political capital. This could turn into a Hitler-like (or Modi-like) situation, and we know how that turned out.

Luckily for us, China and Pakistan combined are vastly more powerful than India, by multiple times. Modi's foolishness could turn into a huge opportunity to solve the border issue, once and for all.

War is of course the worst case scenario, but Indian policy may leave us with no choice, like it did with the Forward Policy. And we must be prepared for a repeat of the same.

Click to play

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152555445862663

 

[Abingdonboy]

So you were not curious that a Chinese nationalist like myself, and a Pakistani nationalist like Horus, were both supporting Modi?

Based on the false perceptions the (and international) media in your respective nations like to spin. Modi was absolved of any wrong doing involving the 2002 riots by the highest court in India- the Supreme Court. All this "mass murderer" nonsense is nothing but a cheap attempt to make mud stick to a nationalist whose message of development and growth during elections saw him win with an unprecedented mandate.

For nations like Pakistan the reasons to fear Modi are vast. China has no need to fear him, he will boost trade many fold with you and likely work together on many regional and global issues as long as China doesn't back India into a corner.

 

[arp2041]

Modi has CERTAINLY done something right in these 4 months................

Last time Pakistanis Used to ABUSE an Indian PM was Mrs. Gandhi & you don't have to be a GENIUS to guess WHY!!

 

[Kompromat]

I am always ready to learn new things. Any source of the "military term"? I tried to google it, did not return anything--military or non military.

First you'd have to have a good understanding of this.

Threat Matrix (database) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Modi has CERTAINLY done something right in these 4 months................

Last time Pakistanis Used to ABUSE an Indian PM was Mrs. Gandhi & you don't have to be a GENIUS to guess WHY!!

He has certainly proven that he is an untrustworthy demagogue.