By this time, everyone must be very clear that
PM Modi is a master of foreign policy. So we should not doubt his intent behind the scheduled Mongolian visit. India and Mongolia have been
strategic partners for decades, Mongolia has a lot of
Uranium (just like Canada), also the
geographical position and the
history of Mongolia increase its diplomatic importance many folds. Let me explain in bullets:
- The Ongoing Defence Cooperation Agreement: The renewal of defence cooperation agreement in 2011 gives a boost to India’s disguised policy of engaging with the neighbors of China in a more discreet manner. The efforts to deepen its defence and strategic relations with Mongolia, a North East Asian country, is considered significant especially since Mongolia was considered a close ally of Russia during the Cold War days and Mongolia-China relations were not considered to be very cordial.China and Mongolia had historical animosity because of Mongolianinvasions to China in the previous millennium and in the recent decades because of territorial disputes. India will simply attain a foothold in the northern neighbor of China. India-Mongolia defence relations can also be described on similar footing to China–Myanmar or China–Pakistandefence relations, which has been a cause of much concern in Indian strategic circles.
The ‘Third Neighbour’ Approach of Mongolia’s Diplomacy:
The third neighbor policy is a facet of foreign relations of Mongolia referring to its
building relationships with countries other than Russia and China. India's featured importantly in the “third neighbour” policy. Since the establishing of relations in the 1955, 30 agreements have been signed between the two nations that build upon historical and cultural relations that existed between the two nations. At the political level, relations were good with the
Mongolian President Mr. T Elbegdorg’s
visiting New Delhi in 2009 and Former-President
Patil’s visiting Ulaanbaatar in 2011. In 2009, the meeting between the two countries resulted in joint declaration which emphasised the broadening of cooperation between the two countries. Mongolian democratic institutions have strengthened over the past decade and this is seen as a key value that Mongolia share with India.
Trade Relations with Mongolia:
Trade between the two countries have been constrained due to the lack of infrastructure in Mongolia . Bilateral trade has grown only from 20 million in 2008 to 46.7 million in 2011.
Uranium exploration is being keenly pursued by Jindal steel after acquiring 2 exploration licenses. Other resources include
gold, copper and iron ore that are present in vast quantities in Mongolia. This mining boom in the country is the key reason behind the high growth rates being experienced in the country. Analysts expect Mongolia economic growth rate to rise from 13% last year to 15% this year, which is the
highest growth rate in the world. The country has 170 billion tons of coal, 205 million tons of petroleum and 68 thousand tons of uranium reserves. Relations between the two countries are likely to be underpinned by economic cooperation led by the mining industry in the coming years.
Historical Importance of Mongolia:
Modi is known for relating different countries to India on historical and cultural grounds and this time it will be a lot more easy. The historical and cultural ties between the two countries have been well documented for centuries. It was driven initially by
Buddhism, then through the
Silk Route and then through ties with
China and Tibet. Post 1955 India and Mongolia have had an active diplomatic engagement, this was particularly highlighted in 1972 when
Mongolia co-sponsored with India and Bhutan a UN resolution for the recognition of
Bangladesh at the cost of their relations with Pakistan. Mongolia’s successful transition to democracy during the 1990’s has been described by India as exemplary.
Modi's Policy on Nukes & Clean Energy:
Other areas of cooperation include the nuclear and defence sectors. Recently, the two countries inked an agreement for the peaceful use of
nuclear energy and arrangements were made for nuclear physicists from Mongolia to study in India. There also exist vast potential for the development of renewable energy especially
wind and solar energy.Though there exist vast potential for solar and wind energy in Mongolia, the presence of
outdated technology presents a significant challenge. Further imperative have been given to hydroelectricity and nuclear but to a lesser extent because of the environmental impacts of large hydro projects and the lack of technical knowhow for the exploitation of their
vast Uranium reserves. In this regard India is likely to be an important partner considering their experience with nuclear energy.
CONSIDERING DEFENSE STRATEGY
ONE OF THE REASON MAY BE SIMILAR TO 'STRING OF PEARLS STRATEGY OF CHINA'.
SINCE ELECTIONS, MODI IS MOSTLY TRAVELLING TO COUNTRIES WHICH HAVE SOMETHING TO DO (VERY IMPORTANT) WITH CHINA(EXCEPT EUROPE AS OTHER THINGS ALSO MATTERS).
SO THIS SEEMS TO BE INDIAN VERSION OF STRING OF PEARLS
NORTH OF CHINA=> RUSSIA, MONGOLIA
EAST OF CHINA=> PRESENCE OF INDIAN NAVY IN SOUTH CHINA SEA AND GOOD RELATIONS WITH JAPAN,S.KOREA,VIETNAM
SOUTH OF CHINA=> INDIA, NEPAL ,BHUTAN(BOTH DEPENDENT ON INDIA)
WEST OF CHINA=> AFGANISTAN(FRIEND OF INDIA), KAZAKISTAN (INDIAN AIR FORCE HAS BASE THERE)
These are just flux of the situation and something were done behind the curtain and should remain behind the curtain.
