Modi Should Aim to Realign Relations, Halt Russian Drift

[Zarvan]

• 
  
  Vladimir Putin with Narendra Modi

India’s relations with Russia have been so enduring and time-tested that the two countries have tended to take each other for granted. There is, however, little understanding of how their foreign policies have evolved with the passage of time. With the advent of economic liberalisation in India and the simultaneous collapse of the Soviet Union, global power equations changed, inevitably impacting their bilateral relations. Given the relentless American hostility and efforts to undermine Russia’s influence even in its immediate neighbourhood, Russia inevitably turned to China to establish a global balance of power.

In this scenario, an economically weakened Russia tried to rope India into its growing partnership with China. This was an effort doomed to fail, given China’s hostility to the aspirations of an emerging, economically vibrant India. But, throughout this period, Russia remained a reliable partner of India. It remains India’s largest and most reliable supplier of weapons and technology, in areas ranging from warships and submarines to fighter aircraft and tanks. But while India recognises Russia’s imperatives for forging a defence partnership with China, Russia has been increasingly uneasy with India diversifying its defence acquisitions, with supplies from the US, France and Israel.

Adding to Russian concerns is the fact that with India’s new emphasis on “Make In India” and involvement of the private industry in India’s defence acquisitions, they could lose out to Western companies like BAE Systems, Boeing and Lockheed, which have close ties with private industry in India. Respecting Indian sensitivities, Russia had earlier banned the transfer of RD 93 jet fighter engines from China to Pakistan. It, however, yielded to Chinese pressure a few years ago, and agreed to the transfer of these engines for Pakistan’s Chinese supplied JF 17 jet fighters.

Three other developments have raised eyebrows in New Delhi. There is firstly, the Russian readiness to join China and Pakistan in an effort designed to give the Taliban a significant say in the future of Afghanistan. Moscow has shown little regard, or understanding, about Indian concerns. Secondly, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov recently described Pakistan as Russia’s “closest partner”, while announcing, following General Raheel Sharif’s Moscow visit, that Russia had agreed to supply Pakistan with its advanced SU 35 jet fighters and MI 35 attack helicopters. Finally, there was astonishment at the spectacle of Russia making common cause with China and Pakistan, to undermine India’s bid for permanent membership of the Security Council.

It would be incorrect to assert, as some do, that these developments suggest we are seeing the beginnings of a Moscow-Beijing-Rawalpindi Axis, directed against India. Despite all its bonhomie with China, the Russians traditionally know that China has territorial and other ambitions that they cannot accommodate, or countenance. China’s decision to renege on a $450-billion energy deal with Russia was a personal setback for President Putin.

Russia continues to provide sophisticated weaponry to Vietnam, despite Chinese reservations. It has offered a partnership to develop and supply state-of-the-art fifth generation fighter aircraft to India. Also, Russia knows a cash-strapped Pakistan cannot afford to pay for expensive Russian SU 35 aircraft. Russia stood by us, after our nuclear tests. Moscow, however, should not forget that India ignored Western sanctions and calls for Russia’s isolation after its takeover of Crimea. Russia cannot also ignore that in the emerging world order, India is one power with which it doesn’t have any inherent conflict of interest.

PM Modi is scheduled to visit Moscow this year. Like him, Putin is a supreme realist. The visit should be utilised to candidly discuss where the two nations stand on regional and global security issues, including religious extremism, in the arc ranging from Pakistan and Afghanistan, through Central Asia, to Turkey. The discussions would naturally cover strategies to promote their mutually beneficial defence and energy partnership.

Modi Should Aim to Realign Relations, Halt Russian Drift -The New Indian Express

 

[trident2010]

Once the Modi is in Moscow we will see the settlement of all the hoax and hoopla.

 

[ito]

Managing Russia and US is a challenge that Modi has to do.

 

[Killswitch]

At the end of the day, Russia knows India wont betray them. They cant say the same for China or Pakistan, who they have both been in conflict with before. On top of that, the defense relationship built with India is huge in scope and the depth of trust established. Modi will iron out any issues with few problems. The Russians need friends and cannot afford to lose one of their best friends, which is India.