BanglaBhoot
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BJP may not find any trouble if the AL government vows to work with BJP the same way it did with Congress
-
April 7, 2014
Nations surrounded by big neighbours often cannot deny their impact entirely. The recent territorial feud between Russia and Ukraine over the Crimean Peninsula is a glaring example of this. Bangladesh, sitting between two heavyweights – India and China – faces an intriguing challenge to balance its relationships with Beijing and Delhi. However India, which engulfs Bangladesh on three sides, has more leverage on Dhaka than any other nation has.
This is the reason why India’s general election is of great interest in Dhaka. No significant change is expected to happen if the current ruling party, Congress, returns to power. The political dynamics, however, may be shifted if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) turns out to be the victor, as the public poll forecasts.
But how will a possible BJP triumph impact Bangladesh’s national politics? India’s Congress-led coalition government openly backed Awami League’s controversial return to power for a consecutive second term. The general election of Bangladesh held earlier in January was constitutionally legitimate, yet morally flawed. Oppositions, chiefly the BNP and its like-minded allies, boycotted, what they termed, the farcical election. This resulted in an easy landslide triumph for AL as 153 seats were left uncontested.
Western nations including the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada called for an all-party election in which the people of Bangladesh could exercise their democratic rights. The drift between Delhi’s attitude and that of the West was apparent in rhetoric too. “Constitutional obligations” was Delhi’s concern, contrary to the Western countries’ “inclusive election.” This continued even after the new government took office in Dhaka.
Apparently, no previous Indian governments have come to play a role as explicit as the present one did in Bangladesh’s domestic political context. Many political analysts believe, due to Congress’s historical ties with AL, Delhi may have turned a blind eye to Bangladesh’s contentious election. This is why Bangladesh’s principal opposition BNP is counting days. According to local media, Khaleda Zia plans to visit Delhi if Narenda Modi forms the government.
She is expected to hold talks with the BJP high echelons in a bid to clarify her position and work toward a sound relationship. However, it is not certain how Modi’s government will orient vis-à-vis this. BJP is a Hindu nationalistic party whereas BNP, a center-right party, has political alliance with Bangladesh’s largest Islamist group, Jamaat-e-Islami.
Conventional wisdom suggests that BJP might not be comfortable to work with such alignment in Dhaka. Besides, Khaleda Zia’s last government, which spanned both BJP and Congress reign, experimented with a “Go East” foreign policy that was frowned upon in Delhi. Complicated by other issues, Dhaka-Delhi relations were frozen during her last term.
This is exactly where Hasina’s leverage is. The icy relations between the two neighbours thawed as she got the wheels turning with regard to some of the pressing bilateral issues, namely transit, extradition, and security. During her reign, Bangladesh managed to become India’s largest trading partner in this region. Both countries are mulling over a trans-nations electricity grid while India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Company is awarded an exploration contract off the coast of Bangladesh. In essence, Indo-Bangladesh entente is at its peak in recent history.
Yet, the future may not be as smooth as it seems now. Addressing an election rally in the province of Assam, Narendra Modi accused the Congress-led government of eliminating rhinos to accommodate Bangladeshi settlers. Although it has yet to confirm what the Modi-led government’s Bangladesh policy will be, Modi’s remarks are a matter of concern for Dhaka.
Besides, the nature of the Modi administration will be another factor. If BJP itself does well in securing more seats in the parliament, it will be in the advantageous position in crafting a foreign policy of its preference. If not, the contributing parties may significantly affect the process. The water distribution treaty of the river Teesta, for example, could not be hammered during Manmohan Singh’s state visit to Dhaka due to the opposition mounted by Mamata Banarjee. Ms Banarjee, along with other stubborn partners of a future Modi government, may thwart some of the unresolved bilateral issues from furthering. This in turn will put the Hasina government under pressure.
When this is the case, the BNP had better stop looking up to foreign blessings to achieve its political goals. Rather, it should concentrate on crafting strategies that engage the Bangladeshi people to help ameliorate democracy in Bangladesh. At the same time, the Modi administration should remain objective not to repeat the legacy of Congress: Meddling in the neighbour’s affairs.
Regardless of the party in power, Delhi requires a stable and cooperative administration in Dhaka in order to maintain the regional equilibrium of power. Taking this into account, BJP may not find any trouble if the AL government vows to work with BJP the same way it did with Congress. And this seems to be more likely than the vice versa. Nevertheless, a challenge lies ahead on how much she can gain from Delhi with regard to solving matters critical to the interests of Bangladesh. After all, a one-sided affair does not last long.
Modi-fying our strategy | Dhaka Tribune
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"At the same time, the Modi administration should remain objective not to repeat the legacy of Congress: Meddling in the neighbour’s affairs."
It is inherent in Indian foreign policy to interfere in the internal affairs of neighbors. This has been happening since at least 1947 but the last 5 years has been quite blatant at least in regard to Bangladesh. It is the nature of Indian foreign policy thinking to seek hegemony and domination over the South Asia neighborhood and there is an element of expansionism which poses a threat to all countries in the region. However, it is the assumption that as Bangladesh is surrounded on three sides by India that it has no leverage. This is totally incorrect and it is a psychological fear barrier that prevents Bangladeshis from seeing this. Bangladesh is strategically positioned to cause trouble for India if the latter acts in an aggressive or exploitative manner. At present there is a lack of courage in our foreign policy making which prevents the exploration of these issues. What Bangladesh lacks is leadership and statesmanship to tackle India in a proper manner. There is unlikely to be any tangible difference between Congress and the BJP except that in the former case the party tends to use subtlety and persuasion to achieve India's national objectives while the latter is more direct and forceful. Bangladesh should be prepared for all or any eventuality but due to a lack of competence and vision in our foreign policy and military circles we may continue to be a victim of Indian aggression and interference to the detriment of our own national interests. I have written comprehensively on all these issues in my book The India Doctrine which explains in detail Indian objectives regarding Bangladesh and South Asia and why under Modi things may get worse -
The India Doctrine (1947-2007) | Mohammad Munshi - Academia.edu
BJP may not find any trouble if the AL government vows to work with BJP the same way it did with Congress
-
April 7, 2014
Nations surrounded by big neighbours often cannot deny their impact entirely. The recent territorial feud between Russia and Ukraine over the Crimean Peninsula is a glaring example of this. Bangladesh, sitting between two heavyweights – India and China – faces an intriguing challenge to balance its relationships with Beijing and Delhi. However India, which engulfs Bangladesh on three sides, has more leverage on Dhaka than any other nation has.
This is the reason why India’s general election is of great interest in Dhaka. No significant change is expected to happen if the current ruling party, Congress, returns to power. The political dynamics, however, may be shifted if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) turns out to be the victor, as the public poll forecasts.
But how will a possible BJP triumph impact Bangladesh’s national politics? India’s Congress-led coalition government openly backed Awami League’s controversial return to power for a consecutive second term. The general election of Bangladesh held earlier in January was constitutionally legitimate, yet morally flawed. Oppositions, chiefly the BNP and its like-minded allies, boycotted, what they termed, the farcical election. This resulted in an easy landslide triumph for AL as 153 seats were left uncontested.
Western nations including the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada called for an all-party election in which the people of Bangladesh could exercise their democratic rights. The drift between Delhi’s attitude and that of the West was apparent in rhetoric too. “Constitutional obligations” was Delhi’s concern, contrary to the Western countries’ “inclusive election.” This continued even after the new government took office in Dhaka.
Apparently, no previous Indian governments have come to play a role as explicit as the present one did in Bangladesh’s domestic political context. Many political analysts believe, due to Congress’s historical ties with AL, Delhi may have turned a blind eye to Bangladesh’s contentious election. This is why Bangladesh’s principal opposition BNP is counting days. According to local media, Khaleda Zia plans to visit Delhi if Narenda Modi forms the government.
She is expected to hold talks with the BJP high echelons in a bid to clarify her position and work toward a sound relationship. However, it is not certain how Modi’s government will orient vis-à-vis this. BJP is a Hindu nationalistic party whereas BNP, a center-right party, has political alliance with Bangladesh’s largest Islamist group, Jamaat-e-Islami.
Conventional wisdom suggests that BJP might not be comfortable to work with such alignment in Dhaka. Besides, Khaleda Zia’s last government, which spanned both BJP and Congress reign, experimented with a “Go East” foreign policy that was frowned upon in Delhi. Complicated by other issues, Dhaka-Delhi relations were frozen during her last term.
This is exactly where Hasina’s leverage is. The icy relations between the two neighbours thawed as she got the wheels turning with regard to some of the pressing bilateral issues, namely transit, extradition, and security. During her reign, Bangladesh managed to become India’s largest trading partner in this region. Both countries are mulling over a trans-nations electricity grid while India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Company is awarded an exploration contract off the coast of Bangladesh. In essence, Indo-Bangladesh entente is at its peak in recent history.
Yet, the future may not be as smooth as it seems now. Addressing an election rally in the province of Assam, Narendra Modi accused the Congress-led government of eliminating rhinos to accommodate Bangladeshi settlers. Although it has yet to confirm what the Modi-led government’s Bangladesh policy will be, Modi’s remarks are a matter of concern for Dhaka.
Besides, the nature of the Modi administration will be another factor. If BJP itself does well in securing more seats in the parliament, it will be in the advantageous position in crafting a foreign policy of its preference. If not, the contributing parties may significantly affect the process. The water distribution treaty of the river Teesta, for example, could not be hammered during Manmohan Singh’s state visit to Dhaka due to the opposition mounted by Mamata Banarjee. Ms Banarjee, along with other stubborn partners of a future Modi government, may thwart some of the unresolved bilateral issues from furthering. This in turn will put the Hasina government under pressure.
When this is the case, the BNP had better stop looking up to foreign blessings to achieve its political goals. Rather, it should concentrate on crafting strategies that engage the Bangladeshi people to help ameliorate democracy in Bangladesh. At the same time, the Modi administration should remain objective not to repeat the legacy of Congress: Meddling in the neighbour’s affairs.
Regardless of the party in power, Delhi requires a stable and cooperative administration in Dhaka in order to maintain the regional equilibrium of power. Taking this into account, BJP may not find any trouble if the AL government vows to work with BJP the same way it did with Congress. And this seems to be more likely than the vice versa. Nevertheless, a challenge lies ahead on how much she can gain from Delhi with regard to solving matters critical to the interests of Bangladesh. After all, a one-sided affair does not last long.
Modi-fying our strategy | Dhaka Tribune
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"At the same time, the Modi administration should remain objective not to repeat the legacy of Congress: Meddling in the neighbour’s affairs."
It is inherent in Indian foreign policy to interfere in the internal affairs of neighbors. This has been happening since at least 1947 but the last 5 years has been quite blatant at least in regard to Bangladesh. It is the nature of Indian foreign policy thinking to seek hegemony and domination over the South Asia neighborhood and there is an element of expansionism which poses a threat to all countries in the region. However, it is the assumption that as Bangladesh is surrounded on three sides by India that it has no leverage. This is totally incorrect and it is a psychological fear barrier that prevents Bangladeshis from seeing this. Bangladesh is strategically positioned to cause trouble for India if the latter acts in an aggressive or exploitative manner. At present there is a lack of courage in our foreign policy making which prevents the exploration of these issues. What Bangladesh lacks is leadership and statesmanship to tackle India in a proper manner. There is unlikely to be any tangible difference between Congress and the BJP except that in the former case the party tends to use subtlety and persuasion to achieve India's national objectives while the latter is more direct and forceful. Bangladesh should be prepared for all or any eventuality but due to a lack of competence and vision in our foreign policy and military circles we may continue to be a victim of Indian aggression and interference to the detriment of our own national interests. I have written comprehensively on all these issues in my book The India Doctrine which explains in detail Indian objectives regarding Bangladesh and South Asia and why under Modi things may get worse -
The India Doctrine (1947-2007) | Mohammad Munshi - Academia.edu
