pumkinduke
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Modi-Amit Shah duo has completely changed the game in J and K
The conviction of seven army officers in the
Machil (Kupwara) fake encounter case of 2010
in Jammu and Kashmir should be seen as one
of a piece in the BJP's gameplan where it is
changing the game itself in this strife-torn
state. The conviction has forced Chief Minister
Omar Obdullah to acknowledge it as a
"watershed" event, and the chances are it will
impact sentiments in the state ahead of
assembly elections due this month and the next.
With a series of moves that began some time in
December 2013, Narendra Modi has quietly
shifted the chatter on Jammu & Kashmir away
from mere separatism to development and
peace. Separatism is not about to decline
suddenly, but the buzz around the state is
changing quietly. The links to the nation are
being reforged. Modi has probably been to J&K
more than to any other states after being
election, even choosing to spend Diwali day in
the Muslim-dominated valley.
Enthused by the party's terrific showing in the
Lok Sabha polls, when it emerged as J&K's
biggest party in terms of popular vote and won
three of the six seats (Jammu, Udhampur and
Ladakh), the BJP has changed its gameplan
from merely seeing itself as a Jammu-based
Hindu party to one that could well lead or be
part of the next government. It is taking the
fight to the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley.
Early indications of the BJP's intentions in J&K
were given by Amit Shah when he was elected
BJP president in August. He talked not just of
doing well in J&K, but winning. He had said:
"The conditions in Jammu & Kashmir are very
sad and the current government is running an
establishment filled with corruption. It is not
only the responsibility of state BJP activists but
every activist in every state to ensure that the
BJP wins there. Both the political families of the
state have misused the money meant for progress ".
The PDP has been seen as softer on the BJP
than the NC, but by attacking both Shah was
essentially saying the BJP's has set its sights
very high in the state.
In the 87-seat assembly, elections to which are
due in five phases starting from 25 November,
the halfway mark is 44. But after initially
targeting Mission 44, the party has now upped
its sights to Mission 50. This is typical Modi – a
man who believes in setting stretch targets to
motivate the cadre. In the Lok Sabha election,
once the opinion polls started showing a shift in
mood towards the BJP, the original target of
272+ was moved up to 300+ – with the party
ending up somewhere in-between at 282.
Mission 50, of course, is not achievable without
the BJP making an entry in the Kashmir Valley,
which has 46 of the 87 seats. The rest of the
seats are in Jammu (37), where the BJP expects
to sweep, and Ladakh (four).
If the BJP has to have a snowball's chance in
hell of becoming the largest party in the J&K
assembly, it will have to win Jammu and
Ladakh clear, and make inroads in the Valley
where it has never once won a seat. Or it will
have to get allies from among the smaller
Muslim parties.
The BJP is thus not only changing the
gameplan, but the game itself by playing its
cards smartly.
The first part of the gameplan unfolded in
December 2013, when Modi visited the state for
the Lok Sabha campaign, where he openly
called for a debate on article 370. He did not
specifically say article 370, which allows J&K a
special status, needs to go, but asked if it had
served any useful purpose. The "secular”
commentariat criticised the statement as a
traditional BJP ploy to pander to the Jammu
Hindu votebank, but with hindsight we can see
where it fits in. It is part of the BJP's larger
goal of integrating J&K into the mainstream by
subsuming state politics into its national
gameplan. Till Modi entered the picture, J&K
elections have always been about pandering to
local sentiment, especially anti-India
sentiment. By raising the BJP's political profile
in J&K, Modi has thrown a challenge to
Kashmiris in the Valley to look at the world
beyond their pond.
By openly talking about being a part of the next
government, the BJP has flung the gauntlet at
the regional parties and the separatists. Both
the National Conference and the PDP,
traditional rivals in the valley, are now fighting
to gain traction for a significant share of the
Muslim vote – only to find the BJP also making
a pitch for it. Even more significant, by
throwing hints about a possible Hindu chief
minister for J&K, the BJP has forced the
separatists to rethink too: they now know that if
their boycott succeeds, they may actually be
helping the BJP. A substantial vote boycott
means seats will be won on low polling. This
has revived hopes among the smaller Muslim
parties that they too can win seats on the basis
of a thin vote, especially if the Pandits thrown
out of the valley are also able to vote. The
Election Commission is ensuring this will
happen.
This is why the BJP is making overtures to the
smaller parties and individuals with some
credibility to either join the party, or be ready
for post-poll alliances. It is fielding Hina Bhat, a
dentist by profession, in Amira Kadal in the
valley who will benefit from a thin Pandit vote
and presumably a small Muslim vote too. And
despite the obvious threat to her life from
separatists, she is selling a vision of smart
cities and expressway, says this Reuters ground
report.
A few days ago, the BJP scored another small
perceptional gain when it got Sajjad Gani Lone
to meet Modi and he came out singing the
latter's praises. Lone is quoted as saying after
the meeting: "The PM is a great human being. I
was pleasantly surprised with his down-to-
earth personality, his vision about bringing in
investments into the state,” adding, "I could not
make out whether I am talking to the PM or my
elder brother.” (Read a Niticentral report here ).
Lone, who was once firmly in the separatist
camp, has avoided contesting elections after his
father, head of the People's Conference, was
assassinated by terrorists in 2002. Sajjad's
party is now contesting 12 seats in Kupwara
and Handwara and has not ruled out a post-poll
alliance with BJP.
But even as the BJP is leaving no stone
unturned to get potential allies in the Valley, it
has pushed through subtle shifts in policy that
send out a softer message of change to the
estranged population in the valley, where the
security forces and the army are often seen as
enemies of the people.
In the recent floods, Modi dived in headlong by
taking ownership of the rescue efforts through
the army. The separatists were seen as boorish
spoilers who tried telling suffering people that
they should not take the help of the army.
Thousands of lives were saved by the army,
and the average Kashmiri Muslim knows that.
More significantly, we have seen the army take
ownership of some of the killings that alienated
the Valley from India.
In the Badgam incident of 3 November, two
Kashmiri youths wee killed by a trigger-happy
army unit which feared that they may be
terrorists. But within days, the army apologised
for its mistake and promised a quick probe and
action. "We take responsibility for the death of
the two boys in Kashmir,” the chief of the
army's northern command, DS Hooda, told the
media.
This has seldom happened in the past where
the army would tell its own version of the
incident and stick to it.
Today (13 November), the army announced the
conviction of seven armymen, including two
officers, involved in a 2010 fake encounter in
Machil in Kupwara district. They get life
imprisonment, and their service benefits stand
suspended.
The impact of this judgment in the Valley
cannot be understated. Chief Minister Omar
Abdullah was forced to tweet approval. "This is
a watershed moment. No one in Kashmir ever
believed that justice would be done in such
cases.”
Quite clearly, Narendra Modi has changed the
game in Jammu & Kashmir where the moral
ground is slipping from under the separatists
and the dynasts. From Omar Abdullah to the
PDP's Mehbooba Mufti, all are forced to
acknowledge the change and fight for their
political spaces.
This also brings dangers: Pakistan-based
separatists will obviously try to step up the
violence in the run-up – and during – the five-
phase elections.
The security forces will clearly have to be on
guard. But even if the terrorists strike it will
mean the same thing: the ground is slipping
under them.
J&K is on the cusp of hope – like the rest of
India.
The conviction of seven army officers in the
Machil (Kupwara) fake encounter case of 2010
in Jammu and Kashmir should be seen as one
of a piece in the BJP's gameplan where it is
changing the game itself in this strife-torn
state. The conviction has forced Chief Minister
Omar Obdullah to acknowledge it as a
"watershed" event, and the chances are it will
impact sentiments in the state ahead of
assembly elections due this month and the next.
With a series of moves that began some time in
December 2013, Narendra Modi has quietly
shifted the chatter on Jammu & Kashmir away
from mere separatism to development and
peace. Separatism is not about to decline
suddenly, but the buzz around the state is
changing quietly. The links to the nation are
being reforged. Modi has probably been to J&K
more than to any other states after being
election, even choosing to spend Diwali day in
the Muslim-dominated valley.
Enthused by the party's terrific showing in the
Lok Sabha polls, when it emerged as J&K's
biggest party in terms of popular vote and won
three of the six seats (Jammu, Udhampur and
Ladakh), the BJP has changed its gameplan
from merely seeing itself as a Jammu-based
Hindu party to one that could well lead or be
part of the next government. It is taking the
fight to the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley.
Early indications of the BJP's intentions in J&K
were given by Amit Shah when he was elected
BJP president in August. He talked not just of
doing well in J&K, but winning. He had said:
"The conditions in Jammu & Kashmir are very
sad and the current government is running an
establishment filled with corruption. It is not
only the responsibility of state BJP activists but
every activist in every state to ensure that the
BJP wins there. Both the political families of the
state have misused the money meant for progress ".
The PDP has been seen as softer on the BJP
than the NC, but by attacking both Shah was
essentially saying the BJP's has set its sights
very high in the state.
In the 87-seat assembly, elections to which are
due in five phases starting from 25 November,
the halfway mark is 44. But after initially
targeting Mission 44, the party has now upped
its sights to Mission 50. This is typical Modi – a
man who believes in setting stretch targets to
motivate the cadre. In the Lok Sabha election,
once the opinion polls started showing a shift in
mood towards the BJP, the original target of
272+ was moved up to 300+ – with the party
ending up somewhere in-between at 282.
Mission 50, of course, is not achievable without
the BJP making an entry in the Kashmir Valley,
which has 46 of the 87 seats. The rest of the
seats are in Jammu (37), where the BJP expects
to sweep, and Ladakh (four).
If the BJP has to have a snowball's chance in
hell of becoming the largest party in the J&K
assembly, it will have to win Jammu and
Ladakh clear, and make inroads in the Valley
where it has never once won a seat. Or it will
have to get allies from among the smaller
Muslim parties.
The BJP is thus not only changing the
gameplan, but the game itself by playing its
cards smartly.
The first part of the gameplan unfolded in
December 2013, when Modi visited the state for
the Lok Sabha campaign, where he openly
called for a debate on article 370. He did not
specifically say article 370, which allows J&K a
special status, needs to go, but asked if it had
served any useful purpose. The "secular”
commentariat criticised the statement as a
traditional BJP ploy to pander to the Jammu
Hindu votebank, but with hindsight we can see
where it fits in. It is part of the BJP's larger
goal of integrating J&K into the mainstream by
subsuming state politics into its national
gameplan. Till Modi entered the picture, J&K
elections have always been about pandering to
local sentiment, especially anti-India
sentiment. By raising the BJP's political profile
in J&K, Modi has thrown a challenge to
Kashmiris in the Valley to look at the world
beyond their pond.
By openly talking about being a part of the next
government, the BJP has flung the gauntlet at
the regional parties and the separatists. Both
the National Conference and the PDP,
traditional rivals in the valley, are now fighting
to gain traction for a significant share of the
Muslim vote – only to find the BJP also making
a pitch for it. Even more significant, by
throwing hints about a possible Hindu chief
minister for J&K, the BJP has forced the
separatists to rethink too: they now know that if
their boycott succeeds, they may actually be
helping the BJP. A substantial vote boycott
means seats will be won on low polling. This
has revived hopes among the smaller Muslim
parties that they too can win seats on the basis
of a thin vote, especially if the Pandits thrown
out of the valley are also able to vote. The
Election Commission is ensuring this will
happen.
This is why the BJP is making overtures to the
smaller parties and individuals with some
credibility to either join the party, or be ready
for post-poll alliances. It is fielding Hina Bhat, a
dentist by profession, in Amira Kadal in the
valley who will benefit from a thin Pandit vote
and presumably a small Muslim vote too. And
despite the obvious threat to her life from
separatists, she is selling a vision of smart
cities and expressway, says this Reuters ground
report.
A few days ago, the BJP scored another small
perceptional gain when it got Sajjad Gani Lone
to meet Modi and he came out singing the
latter's praises. Lone is quoted as saying after
the meeting: "The PM is a great human being. I
was pleasantly surprised with his down-to-
earth personality, his vision about bringing in
investments into the state,” adding, "I could not
make out whether I am talking to the PM or my
elder brother.” (Read a Niticentral report here ).
Lone, who was once firmly in the separatist
camp, has avoided contesting elections after his
father, head of the People's Conference, was
assassinated by terrorists in 2002. Sajjad's
party is now contesting 12 seats in Kupwara
and Handwara and has not ruled out a post-poll
alliance with BJP.
But even as the BJP is leaving no stone
unturned to get potential allies in the Valley, it
has pushed through subtle shifts in policy that
send out a softer message of change to the
estranged population in the valley, where the
security forces and the army are often seen as
enemies of the people.
In the recent floods, Modi dived in headlong by
taking ownership of the rescue efforts through
the army. The separatists were seen as boorish
spoilers who tried telling suffering people that
they should not take the help of the army.
Thousands of lives were saved by the army,
and the average Kashmiri Muslim knows that.
More significantly, we have seen the army take
ownership of some of the killings that alienated
the Valley from India.
In the Badgam incident of 3 November, two
Kashmiri youths wee killed by a trigger-happy
army unit which feared that they may be
terrorists. But within days, the army apologised
for its mistake and promised a quick probe and
action. "We take responsibility for the death of
the two boys in Kashmir,” the chief of the
army's northern command, DS Hooda, told the
media.
This has seldom happened in the past where
the army would tell its own version of the
incident and stick to it.
Today (13 November), the army announced the
conviction of seven armymen, including two
officers, involved in a 2010 fake encounter in
Machil in Kupwara district. They get life
imprisonment, and their service benefits stand
suspended.
The impact of this judgment in the Valley
cannot be understated. Chief Minister Omar
Abdullah was forced to tweet approval. "This is
a watershed moment. No one in Kashmir ever
believed that justice would be done in such
cases.”
Quite clearly, Narendra Modi has changed the
game in Jammu & Kashmir where the moral
ground is slipping from under the separatists
and the dynasts. From Omar Abdullah to the
PDP's Mehbooba Mufti, all are forced to
acknowledge the change and fight for their
political spaces.
This also brings dangers: Pakistan-based
separatists will obviously try to step up the
violence in the run-up – and during – the five-
phase elections.
The security forces will clearly have to be on
guard. But even if the terrorists strike it will
mean the same thing: the ground is slipping
under them.
J&K is on the cusp of hope – like the rest of
India.
. Don't give these ideas to Pakistanis. For the record I have met a number of Pakistanis expressing such desires (MQM type, Christians etc.). No joke here
