Military strikes against Assad's Syria | Updates & Discussions.

[Al Bhatti]

Some are speculating Tomorrow, Thursday and also that it will be very very limited.

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August 27, 2013

Analysis: Preparing for a strike on Syria

The negotiations and considerations of taking action against Damascus

Few question that there was a major chemical attack in Syria last week that killed hundreds, and the United States and its allies have made clear that they blames the government of President Bashar Al Assad. Now, the question is how President Barack Obama and other international leaders will respond? For almost two years, Obama has avoided direct military involvement in Syria’s civil war, only escalating aid to rebel fighters in June after suspected smaller-scale chemical weapons attacks by Syrian government forces. It seems to be a case of when — rather than if — the Syrian regime will be struck.

Can the US act without a UN resolution?

Yes. The US has intervened in conflicts before without Security Council backing, most notably in the Kosovo War in 1999, and could do so again. Any strike by the US, Britain, France and others without a clear UN mandate would likely infuriate Russia, which could be expected to denounce it as illegal.

A coalition of the willing?

Legitimacy for a strike on Syria could come from a “coalition of the willing” of individual countries that support retaliation against Al Assad to demonstrate that the use of weapons of mass destruction will not be tolerated. That coalition could include Arab countries and have formal backing from Nato or other institutions.

Can the US act unilaterally?

Yes, but it is not inclined to do so. President Barack Obama has tried to distinguish himself from his predecessor, George W. Bush, on foreign policy by presenting himself as more multilateralist. He no doubt would like some kind of international legitimacy if the US attacked Syria. But the tough tone of comments on Syria by Secretary of State John Kerry and strong suggestions that US naval forces are moving into position might mean Obama will go ahead with an attack on Al Assad’s forces no matter what.

Does Obama need support of Congress?

US President Barack Obama has the authority to launch air strikes against Syria. But he has to notify lawmakers in Congress — a process which has begun, according to both sides. Who supports military intervention?

BRITAIN

Amid expectations that UK Prime Minister David Cameron will announce that parliament is to be recalled later this week to discuss the Syrian crisis, No 10 indicated that Britain and the US would not be bound by the findings of the UN weapons team which inspected the Damascus suburb hit in the chemical attack. A nuclear-power Trafalgar-class submarine, carrying Tomahawk missiles is close to the ASyrian coast, while Britian Rmilitary bases in Cyprus would also be likely used for air support.

ISRAEL

Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu said the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons must not be allowed to continue. Israel’s “finger must always be on the pulse … If necessary, it will also be on the trigger. We will always know to defend our people and our state against whoever attacks us, tries to attack us or has attacked us.”

TURKEY

Ankara has thrown its weight behind the gathering western consensus on military intervention. Speaking to the Turkish daily newspaper Milliyet, foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Turkey would consider taking part in an international coalition against the Syrian regime, even if the UN security council failed to endorse military action: “We always make it a priority to act in accord with the United Nations and the international community. If the security council does not reach a decision [to take action], we will address other possible options. These alternatives are currently being discussed by 36 to 37 countries. If a coalition emerges from these discussions, Turkey will be a part of it.”

GERMANY

German politicians across the political spectrum were urging extreme caution. The governing Christian Democrats of Chancellor Angela Merkel, insisted Germany was pressing on in pursuit of a diplomatic solution, but suggested for the first time that it might support an international military response if it was proved that Syrian government troops used chemical weapons to attack its opponents. The spokesman to Merkel, Steffen Seibert, said if UN inspectors confirmed the use of chemical weapons, Syria “must be punished”. The foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, said that if the attack was confirmed, “Germany would be among those who consider consequences to be appropriate”.

FRANCE

The French president, François Hollande, says the west “cannot not” respond to the use of chemical weapons in Syria. “Everything will be decided this week,” he told the Parisien newspaper. “We will also leave a little time for the diplomatic process, but not too much time. We cannot not react to the use of chemical weapons.” Hollande, defence minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Laurent Fabius, the foreign affairs minister, have been holding talks on Syria since the chemical attack. Hollande told Obama that France, like Britain, would be at his side if “an action of force” was decided.

Who is opposed to military intervention?

RUSSIA

Moscow on Tuesday warned a military intervention in Syria could have “catastrophic consequences” for the region and called on the international community to show “prudence” over the crisis. “Attempts to bypass the Security Council, once again to create artificial groundless excuses for a military intervention in the region are fraught with new suffering in Syria and catastrophic consequences for other countries of the Middle East and North Africa,” foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said. “We are calling on our American partners and all members of the world community to demonstrate prudence [and] strict observance of international law, especially the fundamental principles of the UN Charter,” he said in a statement.

IRAN

Iran has warned that foreign military intervention in Syria will result in a conflict that would engulf the region. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Abbas Araqchi, indicated it was equally resolved to defend Al Assad. Shi’ite Iran is Syria’s closest ally and has accused an alliance of militant Sunni Islamists, Israel and western powers of trying to use the conflict to take over the region.

HEZBOLLAH

“Everything depends on the nature, the extent and the goals of a Western strike and, for the moment, I expect nothing more than a warning strike,” said Joseph Bahout, a professor at Sciences Po in Paris and a Syria expert. “In this scenario, neither Hezbollah nor Iran will go too far. We can expect ‘lateral and indirect’ moves like aggression towards UNIFIL (the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon) or anonymous rockets against Israel, but in the end, it will not be anything new.”

Will Jordan be brought into the conflict?

Jordan will not be a “launchpad” for military intervention in Syria, a senior government official said Tuesday, as Western and Muslim army chiefs wrapped up a meeting on the conflict. “Jordan’s position has not changed. Jordanian territories will not be used as launchpad for any military action against Damascus,” the official told AFP on condition of anonymity. Amman has repeatedly called for political solution in Syria.

The role of the United Nations

The UN Security Council: In the face of a UN Security Council deadlocked on Syria, the US and its allies could seek other means of legitimising any retaliatory strike they launch against Syria’s government for last week’s alleged gas attack on civilians. The 15-nation council has been split on Syria since 2011. Russia, President Bashar Al Assad’s ally, and China have vetoed three resolutions condemning Al Assad and calling for punitive steps against his government.

The self-defence argument: Article 51 of the UN Charter speaks of “the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations.” In theory, Turkey or Israel could ask the US and its allies for “self-defence” assistance in light of the cross-border violence the two countries have faced during Syria’s two-year civil war. But Article 51, UN diplomats say, might be difficult to construe as the basis for a response to an attack that did not directly affect any of Syria’s neighbours, the US or its allies.

What is the Kosovo principle? US and European officials have cited a bombing campaign carried out by members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation in May, 1999, intended to pressure then Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to withdraw troops and militia from Kosovo. In that case, the United States bypassed the Security Council to avoid a Russian veto and got backing instead from NATO.

The ‘Uniting for Peace’ argument: There is also the “Uniting for Peace” resolution of 1950, which allows for the UN General Assembly to call an emergency session to take up matters related to international peace and security when the Security Council is deadlocked due to a disagreement between its permanent members. That resolution enabled the United States and its allies to thwart Soviet attempts to use its Security Council veto to cut off support for UN-mandated forces in the 1950-53 Korean War.

A resolution from the General Assembly: It is possible Washington could seek political support from the General Assembly in the form of a non-binding resolution to help legitimise action on Syria. While it would not carry the legal weight of a Security Council mandate, an assembly resolution could demonstrate that most of the world supports retaliation — provided Washington secured sufficient support in the 193-nation body. All General Assembly votes on Syria have had a majority of nations opposing Al Assad, though that majority narrowed in the last vote.

Timing of UN approval: The assembly option has potential. China and Russia will fulminate against any missile strikes on Syria, but they could be severely outnumbered at the UN. The General Assembly could offer political support for military action even if the Security Council is paralysed. But the assembly option might take time and it is not clear if Obama will be willing to wait if he decides to retaliate. There is also the option of an assembly approval after a strike has been carried out.

War Crimes and the Red Cross: The International Committee of the Red Cross last year described the Syrian conflict as a civil war, which means the Geneva Conventions on warfare apply. Gassing could be a war crime or even crime against humanity, UN diplomats say. The US and its allies for more than a decade have carried out military actions that they say had international mandates, which Moscow has rejected.

Analysis: Preparing for a strike on Syria | GulfNews.com

 

[shuttler]

Not looking good!

Stock market around world on a big slide!

Yes, rumour says attack on TOMORROW!

Take cover Syria! Bless you all!

 

[ALJIHAD 123]

The whole islamic world is with syria bc enemies of islam r destablising syria first it was iraq then afghanistan then libya nd now syria pakistan supports its brother syria against cia rebels we r ready for world war 3 pakistan is ready for world war 3. Bring it on america ull face the most humiliating defeat it will b harsher then iraq nd afghanistan nd america nd its puppets like israel britain nd france will also b massacred nd blowed up into pieces nd wiped out from the face of this earth. We r ready for world war 3 bring it on america pakistan is with their brother syria.

 

[Al Bhatti]

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August 27, 2013

US-led allies to hit Syria in days

The reaction of Al Assad allies will have little impact on the ground

The US and its allies will strike on Syria. The question is when and how other players would react to the strike? Dr Theodore Karasik, Director of Research and Consultancy at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), believes that the strike is imminent and should happen within the coming ten days.

“We are assuming that a punishing attack on Syria will occur shortly. These punitive strikes may be short in duration of a few days or long term, perhaps lasting up to several weeks depending on the successes and failures of the initial campaign,” Dr Karasik told Gulf News.

He said targeting is likely to be concentrated on Syria’s military infrastructure as well as chemical sites using incendiary precision-guided munitions and bombs.

“The concern, of course, regarding air strikes on Syria will be the counterstrikes by the Al Assad regime and its allies, Hezbollah and Iran. Al Assad’s military still possesses up to 50 per cent of its original SCUD missile inventory and we may see these missiles used to hit targets in neighbouring states — unless they are rendered useless as part of the coalition air attack on Syria,” he said.

He said that the rump state of Syria, as part of its counterstrike, will also likely attempt to destabilise Lebanon specifically along with other neighbours by using targeted car bombings in a continuation of what has occurred in the last two weeks..

Hezbollah along with its Iranian counterparts, Karasik said, will perhaps unleash rocket barrages against Israel as well as specific attacks against Western interests in the region and beyond.

“What will be important to watch for are two interesting and separate issues: The role of Russia, and the reaction of Al Qaeda affiliates in the Syrian battle space,” he said.

Karasik, who is the author of The Kingdom and the Kremlin strategic report said Russia, much as the Kremlin did during the Kosovo military campaign, will play the role of negotiator between the two sides. He said Al Qaeda affiliates, on the other hand, will use the punitive strikes to push forward their agenda by attacking anybody and any force in their way to achieve more strategic victories and to capture additional territory.

A final issue, he said, is the potential impact on the Free Syrian Army.

“Will the air strikes give them a tactical advantage? With the additional training and armaments from Saudi Arabia offered for the FSA to allow them an ability to make tactical gains, would the strikes work in their favour and to which extent,” he asked.

Karasik added that what is known at this stage that the Syrian chessboard, as well as the Levant, is likely to go through a dramatic change — and the coming days will hold the answer how and in what direction.

US-led allies to hit Syria in days | GulfNews.com

 

[Al Bhatti]

My view;

Had Basher did something for his people the uprising would not have started two years back.

Had Basher initially not called the protestors gangsters and did what they demanded for, the protests would have not spread to each and every corner of the country.

Had Bashar given up power during the early days of the protests, what they call as jihadists would not have entered Syria to fight along with the Syrians against Bashar.

Had he still left power after that; the coming strikes would not have happened.

 

[itaskol]

god bless Syria.
to hell FSA terroristen

 

[ALJIHAD 123]

Pakistan is with syria pakistan nd people of pakistan supports syria nd the syrian people before america israel britain nd france started plotting against syria nd therefore so called cia rebels came there was no such thing as chemical attacks or civil war in syria its the cia rebels tht r doing this in syria killing innocent civilians whether it b muslims or christians attacking infrastructure of syria blowing up pipelines etc before america plotting against syria nd cia rebels came syria was in peace nd syria was the safest nation in the region nd in the world. Pakistan will help its brother syria we r ready for world war 3

 

[SHAMK9]

I hope a lot of people die!

DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE!!!

cocaine is not good for breakfast

 

[Al Bhatti]

August 27, 2013

US strike would aim to punish Bashar Al Assad, Iran

It is to teach lesson on risks of defying West, but not try to turn tide of war

Any strike by the United States and its allies on Syria will probably aim to teach President Bashar Al Assad — and Iran — a lesson on the risks of defying the West, but not try to turn the tide of the civil war.

US and European officials say a short, sharp attack — perhaps entirely with cruise missiles — is the preferred response to what they believe is Al Assad’s responsibility for a chemical weapons attack on rebel-held areas last week.

If such a strike goes ahead, President Barack Obama’s administration will have to select its targets with extreme care as it tries to deter not only Al Assad but also Syria’s ally Iran over its nuclear programme.

“The administration has to decide what its objective is — punishment to show that there is a price and to re-establish a deterrent, or to change the balance of power in Syria,” said Dennis Ross, a top White House adviser on the Middle East until late 2011. “I suspect it will be geared towards the former.” Nato air strikes in 2011 helped to change the course of the Libyan civil war, allowing rebels to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi, but Obama is unlikely to opt for something similar in Syria.

US officials said the Pentagon has submitted a range of possible attack plans for Syria to the White House, and analysts believe the scope would be modest.

“I think it will happen but it will be minimal, just enough to show the world that we did something,” said Hayat Alvi, lecturer in Middle Eastern studies at the US Naval War College. “The broader goal is not to get the US involved too deeply — and especially not to allow any boots on the ground.” Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel said the US military is ready to act immediately should Obama order action.

The United States and its allies were strengthening their forces in the region even before hundreds of people were killed in rebel-held suburbs of Damascus last Wednesday. Syria has blamed the rebels but Washington, London and Paris say they have little doubt it was a chemical strike by Al Assad’s forces.

Without some action soon, officials worry that Al Assad will feel he can resort to chemical weapons again with impunity — a year after Obama declared their use a “red line” that, if crossed, would require strong action.

Some also fear inaction in Syria could cast doubt over other US “red lines”, encouraging Iran to pursue a nuclear programme which Tehran says is peaceful but the United States and its allies including Israel believe aims to produce weapons.

Any failure to strike Syria could also prompt Israel to take matters into its own hands by attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, causing yet more upheaval in an already highly unstable region.

Least worst option

Most officials who talked to Reuters said the possibility of allied and civilian casualties was a top consideration.

“It’s about the least worst option,” said a European defence source on condition of anonymity. “No one wants the risk of pilots being captured or killed.” Manned aircraft could still be ultimately used — Israeli jets have already raided Syrian targets on several occasions, proving it is possible.

US F-16 jets have remained in Jordan after an exercise earlier this year. The US air force could also reinforce its Turkish airbase at Incirlik while B2 long-range bombers could fly from the continental United States, unseen by Syrian radar.

Gulf and other regional allies might provide useful intelligence, Western officials said, although their direct involvement in initial strikes was seen unlikely. The main focus would be protecting them from any retaliation by Damascus.

Syria’s conventional forces still pack considerable punch, experts say, including anti-ship missiles that could hit vessels nearby in the Mediterranean and conventional rockets that could hit neighbouring countries including Israel.

Last year, Assad promised not to use chemical weapons within Syria’s borders — but explicitly threatened foreign countries if they attempted to impose outside “regime change”. Western officials believe Syria retains considerable stocks including VX gas, regarded as much more lethal than the sarin suspected to have been used in last week’s attack near Damascus.

Such worries were a major factor in Turkey and Jordan requesting US and Nato Patriot missile batteries now based along the border to shoot down enemy missiles.

US strike would aim to punish Bashar Al Assad, Iran | GulfNews.com

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August 27, 2013

Jordan says won’t be ‘launchpad’ for strikes

Amman has repeatedly called for political solution in Syria

Jordan will not be a “launchpad” for military intervention in Syria, a senior government official said on Tuesday, as Western and Muslim army chiefs wrapped up a meeting on the conflict.

“Jordan’s position has not changed. Jordanian territories will not be used as launchpad for any military action against Damascus,” the official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Amman has repeatedly called for political solution in Syria.

The official’s remarks came on the second and final day of a meeting of senior military officers to discuss the regional impact of the war in Syria.

“The outcome of this meeting on developments in Syria is not expected to be announced to the media because of the nature of the meeting,” the official said, without elaborating.

The state-run Petra news agency has quoted a military spokesman as saying the meeting comes at the invitation of Jordan’s army chief of staff Mesha’al Mohammad Al Zaban and General Lloyd Austin, head of Centcom, the US command responsible for 20 countries in the Middle East and Central Asia.

US army chief General Martin Dempsey was to take part, along with chiefs of staff from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Canada.

“Again, the meeting has been scheduled for months. Similar meetings were held before in London and Doha,” the government official said.

Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh said on Sunday the meeting “will discuss the situation and scenarios on the ground, especially after the recent dangerous developments. The army chiefs have to have comprehensive talks and examine the impact on the region.”

A drumbeat toward western retaliation against Damascus seemed to be getting louder as the United States and its allies mulled military action as they blamed President Bashar Al Assad’s regime for a suspected chemical weapons attack near Damascus last week.

The Washington Post cited senior administration officials as saying President Barack Obama was weighing limited military strikes on targets in Syria.

Many in Jordan, which is already struggling with 500,000 Syrian refugees, fear further impact from the conflict.

Prime Minister Abdullah Nsur has said that the United States is providing its ally Jordan with technical assistance against any possible chemical threat from neighbouring Syria.

http://gulfnews.com/in-focus/syria/jordan-says-won-t-be-launchpad-for-strikes-1.1224535

 

[ALJIHAD 123]

Liberation time.

Another JEW worshipping american piece of crap here r u americans born beggars or slaves tht u americans hve 2 kiss israels dirty a$$ every day including ur president foreign minister etc 2 utter absolute rubbish nd lies nd trash haan. Just attack SYRIA nd millions of iraqi hardcore fighters nd mujahideens like AL MAHDI ARMY will enter SYRIA 2 help SYRIA. U JEWS keep on living in fantasy world of hollywood wat a joke this country america is america is an israeli colony the jews run nd control america. wat a joke lol

 

[Al Bhatti]

Please merge

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...on-under-attack-asaad-used-wmd-civilians.html

 

[Panther 57]

Not a surprising outcome after how the stage was set. Asad is not wrong in saying America will face the same fate since Vietnam war. Unfortunately, this end leaves the subject country in a shambles for very long. Don't know when people purporting civilised behaviour will restrain themselves from activities, which if committed by some other country will be termed as terrorism

 

[Al Bhatti]

http://www.defence.pk/forums/middle...alert-us-begins-war-syria-early-thursday.html

Please merge

 

[Juice]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I doubt retard 123 is actually Pakistani....I don't think any Pakistani is going to be happy about the situation....but he seems to wish to provoke....same as whoever used chems.

 

[Kompromat]

All updates to be posted here.