Alright - since people
@kursed had pointed out that the original scenario seemed rigged to give the LRSAMs an advantage. I just reran it with a few minor adjustments.
The doctrine for the Indian side was that it was to go weapons free as soon as the first strike was hit(H-4 hit on Narian or Naushera).
So the Mirage strike force was tasked to take a different route westward but otherwise the same altitude profile. Launching from the south west rather than a southern approach. The H-4 guidance aircraft too follow this approach and all made it back ok with decent internal fuel remaining.
The F-16 escort package too was tasked to fly at 2000ft all the way to the border.
The interesting aspect of this approach was that while with the original approach the simulated Indian aircraft would redirect and focus on the strike group, here they seemed to have no clue and happily loitered away.
View attachment 796456
The REK group with JF-17s too was not bothered inbound and by this time the trigger made ROE hostile pursuit for the Indian side but they were unable to bother the strike package instead starting a spat with the JF-17 escort.
View attachment 796457
Now at this time the S-400 at Adampur(elevation 800ft) was ROE free to engage all targets not positively identified as friendly and yet not a single missile left the ground. I took over and deliberately tried to get it to fire at everything and it would not fire. (FYI I had set the skill level for both LRSAMs as average so no inequality).
This same S-400 that was pumping out missile after missile at the F-16 flight at 20000ft was unable to make a meow at 2000ft???
It did manage to launch 1 missile finally at a F-16 but that went stupid after heading towards the north east. Was overall SA for the Indian side a factor?
BECAUSE - getting a targeting solution on something flying 50km closer at 15000ft is easier than something flying either same area at 2000ft or further out.
Oddly, as the computer(and not humans) were controlling both sides - the Indian M2Ks do try to engage the JF-17s and also the H-4 weapons again. This triggers the F-16s on the Pakistani side to start lobbing AMRAAMS even from 2000ft. The loft as they do and 7 AIM-120s vs 4 MKIs is not good math of which only one manages to make an AMRAAM dodger.
View attachment 796458
Now for basically shits and giggles I gave the Sihala based HQ-9 ROE free and it started pumping out missiles at the Mirages even as they ran towards Srinagar(
does the Hq-9 loft??) and even with evasive maneuvering those mirages were brought down.
Finally, I let Alpha-1 with his Mig-21 get airborne and as soon as he crossed over Gulmarg heading towards sunset peak at minimum altitude(
which in this case was 9000ft) trying to ambush the F-16 flight he had Aim-120s and HQ-9s launched at him. Frankly they could have launched the entire squadron and it would not have survived what was on the other side.
View attachment 796459
So, takeaways.
Unless the S-400 is placed closer(
putting it under risk from even A-100 MBRL attacks) take off to low level flight is very doable and if lessons from the Iranians are taken on refueling at low level then the PAF should be ok to operate and perform decent SEAD operations too.
The HQ-9 placed at Sihala at 1500 ft which had SA from the SAAB and other assets is a freaking monster making anything but low level and NOE airspace over IOK a death zone. And this simulation was designed by western sources using their estimates and "bias".