Miftah Ismael under-reported new foreign debt by at least $7 Billion in the budget 2022-23 document.

[Zowais]

Idiot ultra pro max I believe.

They are. But its not their idiocy making them do all this. Its committing treason. They have put lives of 230 million people on risk by bringing us this close to default.

@JamD I'm just making a 'political analysis' here, but it really seems like this PDM gov't is torpedoing the PML and PPPs' ability to contest in the next elections. It's as if every manner of 'corrupt politician' caricature is coming alive in this relatively short period.

I'm just thinking aloud here, but had the PTI been able to complete its term under these conditions, I think it would have sputtered into the next elections on an unfavourable footing. But now, the situation is making the PTI look strong, no? I feel the situation is setting itself up for another PTI term, potentially a majority government.

Note, I'm just observing here, no horse in this race except for the racetrack itself (Pakistan).

In your analysis, you are assuming its PDM doing all this, , which is incorrect assumption.
They have boots, courts, ECP and every part of state machinery behind them.
Challenging US open in public means, there's nothing left for IK/PTI living within system. So expecting anything good coming out of elections for PTI, is not realistic expectation.

 

[JamD]

I am not sure if you are following Pakistani politics but after well coordinated & collective media black out of events of April 10, May 23 & May 25; the consensus is that bad PTI performance that was broadcasted every night from 7:00 PM to 11:00 pm for past 3 yers, was directed from Boys in Pindi.

Boys in Pindi should have not called Shukat Tareen at HQ in Aabpara to SEEK HELP for economic situation if they really thought that PTI's economic performance was dismal. Three of five people called for help at Aabpara served under PTI.

The report published by Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22 earlier in June 2022 clears up all the misconception about poor performance of PTI. Here are few snippets , snippets & snippets if you do not want to read complete REPORT .

@Bilal Khan (Quwa)

First of all let's not call your opinion consensus. I won't do it either. It is opinion. Take it or leave it.

I have no intention of being ISPR and defending the army's actions. You can ask them why they called Shaukat Tarin. I frankly don't care. I only care about Pakistan's economy.

My opinion of PTI's economic progress is in fact based on the economic survey since this is the closest thing to facts. Keep in mind that alot of numbers grow every year simply because of inflation. You are welcome to read previous ESPs and not just this one. Yes there are some geniune successes like exports but the main headline is that we went for an expansionary budget when we couldn't afford it and without solving most of Pakistan's structural issues. Growth of 6% driven by consumption like everytime in the last 40 years is nothing to write home about. Furthermore further supporting Pakistans horrible real estate bubble/addiction was also very bad for us. Do you honestly believe that the crises that Pakistan is in right now started right after vote of no confidence? think about it logically and apolitically.

 

[alphapak]

This Showbaaz government reminds of Mr Bean, they don't have a clue. lol

 

[Crimson Blue]

I have no intention of being ISPR and defending the army's actions. You can ask them why they called Shaukat Tarin. I frankly don't care. I only care about Pakistan's economy.

You brought up the name & poor performance of Shaukat Tarin in your post on the last page so I thought you might be concerned about his real performance. But now if you do not care about him anymore after reading my response, then that's ok too.

If you want to compere previous ESPs, we can do that all day.

Previous govt. collected PKR 3800 billion by the end of their 5 years. PTI collected PKR 6000 billion by Shaukat Tarin at the end of 4 years without increasing any single tax significantly. This increase cannot be explained by normal consumption.

Agriculture growth was only 0.9% in 2017 & 3.83% in 2018 at the end of their 5th year. It was 4.4% in 2021 which is their 4th year. And remember these are growth numbers from last year and not absolute numbers.

Cotton production increased more than 60% in 2021-22 where it overall shrank in 5 years ending 2018.

Large Scale Manufacturing growth was 6.24% by the end of 5 years in 2018 when it grew by 10.4% by the end of their 4th year.


You may also recall that GoP was receiving US aid of $1.8 billion annually till 2018 which helped their finances. And PML(N) took over in 2013 when overall fiscal situation was much better than in July 2018.

Also an additional PKR 400 billion was spent to provide health insurance (Health Services expansion) to more than 50% of population during 2021-22 which you cannot be compare with any other period in last 75 years.

Foreign reserve of $16 billion was left in SBP in March 2022 as compared to $9 billion left in July 2018. Here, I am not including the foreign reserves held by private banks.

 

[JamD]

You brought up the name & poor performance of Shaukat Tarin in your post on the last page so I thought you might be concerned about his real performance. But now if you do not care about him anymore after reading my response, then that's ok too.

No I am directly blaming Shaukat Tarin's management for the economic problems. It's not that "I don't care about him anymore after reading your response." Aisa response dia apnay main hakka bakka rehgaya lol. Grow up man.

If you want to compere previous ESPs, we can do that all day.

Previous govt. collected PKR 3800 billion by the end of their 5 years. PTI collected PKR 6000 billion by Shaukat Tarin at the end of 4 years without increasing any single tax significantly. This increase cannot be explained by normal consumption.

Agriculture growth was only 0.9% in 2017 & 3.83% in 2018 at the end of their 5th year. It was 4.4% in 2021 which is their 4th year. And remember these are growth numbers from last year and not absolute numbers.

Cotton production increased more than 60% in 2021-22 where it overall shrank in 5 years ending 2018.

Large Scale Manufacturing growth was 6.24% by the end of 5 years in 2018 when it grew by 10.4% by the end of their 4th year.


You may also recall that GoP was receiving US aid of $1.8 billion annually till 2018 which helped their finances. And PML(N) took over in 2013 when overall fiscal situation was much better than in July 2018.

Also an additional PKR 400 billion was spent to provide health insurance (Health Services expansion) to more than 50% of population during 2021-22 which you cannot be compare with any other period in last 75 years.

Foreign reserve of $16 billion was left in SBP in March 2022 as compared to $9 billion left in July 2018. Here, I am not including the foreign reserves held by private banks.

You seem to be doing this:

expecting me to defend PMLN somehow lol.

All governments can and do make their numbers good by doing the following:
1. Using PKR figures - this is especially useful because USD vs PKR has done a 100% increase from 2015 so any number can look doubled but it actually isn't doubled.
2. Using percentages - 0.0001 to 0.0002 is a 100% increase. Looks impressive as a percentage but with a low base it's really nothing.
And you can see evidence of this if you look at previous ESPs. Every ESP seems to suggest Pakistan is doing great. But why is Pakistan then not doing great? How do you solve that disconnect?

Just like you are cherry picking and dressing up figures for PTI, someone will do the same for PMLN. Please don't expect me to do that because to me PMLN and PTI are not so different. Both didn't do structural reforms and led Pakistan on a consumption driven growth spurt. Both financed growth using an unsustainable amount of loans - PTI was a particularly bad offender in this regard (those reserves you are bragging about isn't money earned from exports obviously). We've seen this cycle of reserves so many times. PTI did good by unpegging the rupee from the dollar - this was one of the reasons for pressure on our reserves. But then PTI also became the Ishaq Dar of petrol just before leaving - basically doing the same thing to the exchange rate just with petrol prices. So you see is hamam main sab nangay hain.

Both did some good things but mostly just "let the system run" and were victims of short-term politics-based policies. The bottom line and undeniable fact is that growth lead to CAD crises just like in the past 30 years. No amount of mental gymnastics can change that. PTI was more of the same in my opinion. Still awaiting actual tabdeeli.

 

[VCheng]

All governments can and do make their numbers good by doing the following:
1. Using PKR figures - this is especially useful because USD vs PKR has done a 100% increase from 2015 so any number can look doubled but it actually isn't doubled.
2. Using percentages - 0.0001 to 0.0002 is a 100% increase. Looks impressive as a percentage but with a low base it's really nothing.

And it works every time!

Both did some good things but mostly just "let the system run" and were victims of short-term politics-based policies. The bottom line and undeniable fact is that growth lead to CAD crises just like in the past 30 years. No amount of mental gymnastics can change that. PTI was more of the same in my opinion. Still awaiting actual tabdeeli.

The same system endures, only the figureheads change when needed.

 

[Crimson Blue]

Both did some good things but mostly just "let the system run" and were victims of short-term politics-based policies. The bottom line and undeniable fact is that growth lead to CAD crises just like in the past 30 years. No amount of mental gymnastics can change that. PTI was more of the same in my opinion. Still awaiting actual tabdeeli.

I was thinking of replying to your post but after reading this paragraph, I'd rather not.

I'd just say if you believe that parties are more of the same then let All Political Parties (PDM) navigate through a tough economic situation. Similar to the one they have left back in 2018 and see how well do they perform now as compared to PTI.

I'll check back in March 2023 to see how well did PDM do?

 

[VCheng]

I'll check back in March 2023 to see how well did PDM do?

That would be the correct thing to do here.

 

[Gripen9]

@JamD I'm just making a 'political analysis' here, but it really seems like this PDM gov't is torpedoing the PML and PPPs' ability to contest in the next elections. It's as if every manner of 'corrupt politician' caricature is coming alive in this relatively short period.

I'm just thinking aloud here, but had the PTI been able to complete its term under these conditions, I think it would have sputtered into the next elections on an unfavourable footing. But now, the situation is making the PTI look strong, no? I feel the situation is setting itself up for another PTI term, potentially a majority government.

Note, I'm just observing here, no horse in this race except for the racetrack itself (Pakistan).

If they had let PTI complete its term, it would have been very unpopular due to the skyrocketing inflation. As the numbers have come out tells us that PTI did a stellar job during and after covid to atleast fix some basic issues with the economy to put it at 6% growth trajectory. But that message would have gotten lost with the average man who is being crushed by inflation.

However, I don't think PTI will be able to come to power due to massive rigging by these chors propped up by you know who.

 

[Crimson Blue]

However, I don't think PTI will be able to come to power due to massive rigging by these chors propped up by you know who.

That is not relevant at this time.
If fiscal data trend coming out from May/June 2022 continues, then everyone in Pakistan should brace for an impact.
You would definitely want PDM to continue till September 2023.

 

[Gripen9]

That is not relevant at this time.
If fiscal data trend coming out from May/June 2022 continues, then everyone in Pakistan should brace for an impact.
You would definitely want PDM to continue till September 2023.

The damage they will to overall country by that time will be irreparable.

 

[Crimson Blue]

The damage they will to overall country by that time will be irreparable.

Well 'Mulk Ke Thekedar' would take care of any damage as per their logic; they can install anyone at PM house and economy would run all the same.

For rest of us, this is a time for all the parties in PDM to prove if they can perform at least as good as PTI did from 2018-2022 under tough economic circumstances. You know, many believe that economic performance of PTI was just the same as of others. Lets see if all other parties which are in power now can tame the inflation and produce just average economic numbers that PTI produced under tough economic times.

PDM can also do 6% GDP growth while increasing exports by 20% during this fiscal year, it shouldn't be a problem at all. I'll check back in March 2023.

 

[maithil]

How does such stunts help ? These "mistakes" make official statistics from Pakistan Govt less credible for international organizations.

 

[SD 10]

How does such stunts help ? These "mistakes" make official statistics from Pakistan Govt less credible for international organizations.

you think someone cares about credibility in all this shitshow.

 

[crankthatskunk]

Well if you miss out $ 7 billion , deliberately I must add, it means only onething, you are trying to fool people.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536710694103662600

This is not the first time, Dar the criminal, used private companies to park Pakistan's national debt and foreign borrowing outside the budget. This is the same try by Miftah, to present a rossier picture than the reality.