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Member of President Bashar Al Assad’s inner circle defects

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July 7, 2012

General’s defection reveals cracks in Syria regime

Conflict turning into civil war drawn along communal lines

The first defection of a member of President Bashar Al Assad’s inner circle highlights the growing isolation of the Alawite-dominated regime as the United Nations considers next steps to usher in a transitional government.

Syrian Brigadier-General Manaf Tlas, a Sunni, was a confidant of Al Assad, who is Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite sect. His defection was announced in Paris by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius at a Friends of Syria meeting in Paris.

The decision by a Sunni regime insider to abandon Al Assad “underscores the very real worry that this war is turning into a civil war drawn along religious, communal lines,” said Joshua Landis, director of the Middle East programme at the University of Oklahoma in Norman, in response to e-mailed questions.

“If that happens, the regime will fall apart,” Landis said. “The Alawites cannot rule Syria alone.”

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An uprising that began peacefully 16 months ago and evolved into a deadly confrontation has caused the international community to reconsider its strategy over how to persuade Al Assad, whose family has held power for four decades, to leave. Syrian forces battled with rebels in Aleppo in the north of the country as they sought to reassert control over the region, the UK- based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said in an e-mailed statement. They also were conducting raids in Daraa province, the group said.

Childhood friends

More than 70 per cent of Syria’s population is Sunni and Al Assad and his ruling minority depend on the loyalty of Sunni officers.

Tlas, formerly a commander in the elite Republican Guard, is the son of ex-Defence Minister Mustapha Tlas and was a childhood friend of Al Assad. Before leaving the country, he headed Brigade 105 in the Revolutionary Guard, according to the pro-government website Syria Steps.

Tlas urged other soldiers, regardless of their rank, to “quit this bad track,” according to a letter to his troops with his signature, reported by Agence France Presse, which couldn’t verify the letter’s authenticity.

The rising violence in Syria, even with the presence of 300 UN military observers, will play a role in what the UN Security Council — where Russia has used its veto to shield Al Assad —will do next.

In a 25-page report, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recommends a reduction in the number of monitors in Syria, and having the smaller mission based in Damascus, to encourage a political dialogue. The UN monitors’ three-month mission expires July 20.

The drawback to this option is that “popular opinion may misinterpret intensified advocacy at the central level as privileging government prerogatives, while reducing access to opposition groups outside the capital,” Ban’s report said.

The Security Council will vote next week on a resolution based on Ban’s recommendations.

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July 6, 2012

Diplomats press Al Assad as top Syrian general defects

Syrian Brigadier General Manaf Tlass abandoned Al Assad's regime, Western official says

The United States and its international partners called on Friday for global sanctions against Bashar Al Assad's regime, seeking to step up the pressure after the defection of a top general dealt a major blow to the Syrian leader.

Washington urged countries around the world to pressure Russia and China into forcing Al Assad to leave power.

A Western official told The Associated Press that Syrian Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass had abandoned Assad's regime. Tlass was a member of the elite Republican Guards and a son of a former defense minister. The official wasn't authorized to divulge the information and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Tlass' whereabouts were unclear. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and other opposition websites claimed he had fled to Turkey, while other reports said he came to Paris, where he has a sister and where diplomats from around the world gathered Friday for a conference to bolster the Syrian opposition and pressure Al Assad.

The new defection is the highest profile departure from the Al Assad regime in 16 months of brutal government crackdowns and civil war. The Paris conference buzzed with talk about the departure.

A member of Syria's opposition National Council, Hassem Hashimi, told the AP in Paris that Tlass has defected, describing him as a powerful figure in the Assad regime. "The defection of Tlass will encourage a lot of similar people to defect as well," he said.

Also in Paris, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton joined senior officials from about 100 other countries to win wider support for a Syrian transition plan unveiled last week by UN mediator Kofi Annan. Joined by America's allies, she called for "real and immediate consequences for non-compliance, including sanctions," against the Al Assad regime.
But with neither Moscow nor Beijing in attendance, much remained dependent on persuading the two reluctant UN veto-wielding powers to force Assad into abiding by a cease-fire and the transition strategy. Clinton urged governments around the world to direct their pressure toward Russia and China, as well.

"What can every nation and group represented here do?" Clinton asked. "I ask you to reach out to Russia and China, and to not only urge but demand that they get off the sidelines and begin to support the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people."

"I don't think Russia and China believe they are paying any price at all — nothing at all — for standing up on behalf of the Assad regime," she added.

"The only way that will change is if every nation represented here directly and urgently makes it clear that Russia and China will pay a price. Because they are holding up progress, blockading it. That is no longer tolerable."

Frustrated by the difficult international diplomacy, Syria's fractured and frustrated opposition is seeking quick military actions instead.

"We're sick of meetings and deadlines. We want action on the ground," said activist Osama Kayal in the northern city of Khan Sheikhoun, which has been under Syrian army fire for days. He spoke via Skype from a nearby village.

International diplomats at the Paris conference also urged the Syrian opposition to unite.

Hashimi, general secretary of the opposition Syrian National Council, said in Paris he hoped to see a "tough stand" by diplomats, and a no-fly zone to prevent military forces "flying over defected soldiers and civilians and bombarding them."

But military intervention is not on the immediate horizon. U.S. officials say they are focusing on economic pressure, and the Obama administration says it won't intervene militarily or provide weapons to the Syrian rebels for what it considers to be an already too-militarized conflict. Any international mandate for military intervention would almost certainly be blocked by Russia and Moscow in the UN Security Council.

US officials say a UN resolution could be introduced next week, but one that only seeks further economic pressure on Assad's government. Even the chances for that action are unclear, with Russia and China effectively watering down Annan's blueprint for transition at a conference in Geneva last weekend. It granted Assad veto over any interim government candidate he opposes. The opposition gained the same power.

Activists say more than 14,000 people have been killed since the revolt began. Tlass was one of the most important Sunni figures in Syria's Alawite-dominated regime.

As the son of longtime Defence Minister Mustafa Tlass, he was a member of the Syrian Baath Party aristocracy, part of a privileged class that flourished under the Al Assad dynasty.

His father and Al Assad's father, Hafez, had been intimate friends since their days in the Syrian military academy in Homs and became close after they were posted in Cairo in the late 1950s when Egypt and Syria merged into the United Arab Republic — a union that lasted three years.

After Hafez Assad rose to power in the early 1970s, Mustafa Tlass became defense minister and the Syrian president's most trusted lieutenant.

When Hafez died of a heart attack in 2000, Tlass helped engineer Bashar's succession to the presidency and guided the inexperienced young doctor. Tlass was the chief figure in a coterie of old regime figures that critics blamed for reining in moves to liberalize the Syrian regime.


Syrian Brigadier-General Manaf Tlas is seen in Damascus in a handout photograph taken with a mobile phone on February 21, 2011. Manaf Tlas, a family friend of President Bashar Al Assad and head of a unit of his elite Republican Guard, has fled Syria for France and has information about the regime that could help its opponents, the Syrian rebel army said on Friday.

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In this 2002 photo, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, centre, with Syrian Defence Minister Mustafa Tlass, right, and Hassan Turkmany, Chief of Staff. A top general who has abandoned President Bashar Al Assad's regime was a longtime friend from Syria's most powerful Sunni family. Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass was a commander in the powerful Republican Guard and the son of former defence minister Mustafa Tlass

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gulfnews : Diplomats press Al Assad as top Syrian general defects
 
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We ain't seen nothin yet, Just wait until Iran gets into a war. I'm thinking that their Air Force and Navy will defect "en masse", probably most of their regular army will do the same, leaving the Revolutionary Guard to go down with the radical Mullahs. (Just MHO, of course)
 
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