Mehsud Sacked

[mujahideen]

'Mullah Omar sacks Mehsud for fighting Pakistan Army'

OUR MONITORING DESK
TALIBAN chief Mullah Omar has removed the wanted militant leader Baitullah Mehsud as the commander of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan for fighting Pakistani army.
Asia Times Online quoted Mullah Omar as telling other Taliban commanders to turn their focus on NATO forces stationed in Afghanistan even as President Pervez Musharraf has ordered intensified military operations against the pro-Taliban militants in South Waziristan.
Mehsud, appointed by Omar as the chief of the Pakistani Taliban, was expected to provide support to the Taliban in Afghanistan, but instead directed all his fighters against Pakistani security forces. Now, Omar has sacked Mehsud for fighting against the Pakistan Army instead of with NATO forces, said the report of the Hong Kong-based online.
“The Afghan front is quiet because the Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants are heavily engaged in fighting Pakistani security forces in Waziristan. Therefore, Mullah Omar has put his foot down to reset goals for the Taliban: struggle in Afghanistan and not against Pakistan, as was being done by Baitullah Mehsud,” the report said.
It quoted intelligence sources as saying that the top Taliban cleric appointed Maulvi Faqir Muhammad as TTP chief. However, Faqir has refused to accept the post, after which the local Taliban were trying to find a replacement for Baitullah.
With the reported isolation of Baitullah, who has already been named by the government as the main suspect behind former premier Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, his loyalists are on their own to fight against the security.

The Nation

 

[JK!]

What will this actually result in on the ground if anything?

 

[mujahideen]

What will this actually result in on the ground if anything?

The only positive aspect in all this and I could be wrong is that the people of Mehsud and Mullah Omar might start fighting each other. We have seen this type of thing before where the tribes fight each other. Lets see what happens and lets hope and pray for the best.

 

[S-2]

He's drawn unwanted attention to the Taliban's critically important and long-nurtured sanctuary. Nothing comparable exists in Afghanistan. The Taliban can't afford alienating the Pakistani Pashtun tribes nor losing Quetta and their Pakistani networks of supply, arms, drug markets, and banking. Doing so would be comparable to only Zarqawi and the AQI's boneheaded defeat in al-Anbar. In fact, the twin battles of Pakistan and Afghanistan are unsustainable and NOT mirror-image conflicts. Thus, a choice seems to have been made.

If so, the best peace-feeler Omar could extend to Musharraf would be to visibly re-orient the Taliban towards the Americans in Nangahar, Paktia, and Paktika and the British, Dutch, and Canadians in Helmand/Kandahar/Uruzgan. Naturally, the Americans would welcome this development. The Canadians, Dutch, and British less so. Dramatically stepping up attacks against NATO now (despite winter-time), of course, would indirectly reveal just how important retaining these Pakistani support networks is to the Taliban.

The Taliban have chosen to contest Afghanistan and must retain their advantage of Pakistani sanctuary. Mehsud has endangered this irreplacable asset.

Some thoughts.

 

[roadrunner]

He's drawn unwanted attention to the Taliban's critically important and long-nurtured sanctuary.

Perhaps the statements are just a decoy, or perhaps just some misinformation. Either way, if Mehsud was using all his men to fight the Pakistani Army, then they couldn't be doing any fighting in Afghanistan now could they?

Though it does seem Mullah Omar, if he said this, is a bit more friendlier with the Pakistani government now, whilst Al Q have been urging attacks on the Pakistani government. That would be a welcome difference.

Nothing comparable exists in Afghanistan. The Taliban can't afford alienating the Pakistani Pashtun tribes nor losing Quetta and their Pakistani networks of supply, arms, drug markets, and banking.

You've misunderstood what the text is trying to say. When he, assuming it's true and not made up, said that the Afghan front was quiet, he obviously meant Mehsud's part of the Afghan front. It's possible Masood is contributing to the fighting in some of the border areas, but no way is he able to logistically contribute to any fighting hundreds or thousands of miles within Afghanistan. I hope you'll admit NATO would have an easy time seeing the movement of thousands of Masood's troops?

It is known fact that the Afghani resistance has increased of late with much of the South in Taliban hands, plus a sustained winter campaign by them. Ths suggests the remark (again if true), that the Afghan front is quiet (which is impossible) because Mehsud is fighting the Pakistani Army, refers to the border areas only of Pakhtia where Mehsud could be involved in some violence (in other words Mehsud's part of the Afghan front is quiet). But if you look at Pakhtia, it is only one of 7 or so districts involved in the insurgency.

If so, the best peace-feeler Omar could extend to Musharraf would be to visibly re-orient the Taliban towards the Americans in Nangahar, Paktia, and Paktika and the British, Dutch, and Canadians in Helmand/Kandahar/Uruzgan.

Do you believe that Mehsud's fighters are fighting in Helmand, Kandahar, Nangahar, Uruzgan? Yes or no.

Naturally, the Americans would welcome this development. The Canadians, Dutch, and British less so. Dramatically stepping up attacks against NATO now (despite winter-time), of course, would indirectly reveal just how important retaining these Pakistani support networks is to the Taliban.

Incorrect logic here. Taliban attacks have stepped up in the past few months against NATO in Afghanistan. If this statement is true, the Mehsud's "Taliban" have not been contributing to the rise in violence. This suggests that the violence that has occurred, and the rise of that violence must have come from within Afghanistan. It certainly did not come from Waziristan if Mehsud was using all his troops to fight the Pakistani Army.

The Taliban have chosen to contest Afghanistan and must retain their advantage of Pakistani sanctuary. Mehsud has endangered this irreplacable asset.

Some thoughts.

Mehsud never really did much in Afghanistan. The Afghanis would not let him move so many troops into Afghanistan, nor would he be able to overrun any area without the acceptance of the local population, which he would not get given the fierce rivalries of the chiefs.

In conclusion, if Mehsud was head of the Pakistani Taliban, and by Mullah's Omar's supposed own words, he has not been doing any fighting in Afghanistan, this is pretty much proof that the Pakistani Taliban have not been fighting in Afghanistan..assuming what's been said is correct.

 

[peacelover]

So from now on Omer will become Pakistan's army's close friend???

 

[S-2]

Thanks.

"You've misunderstood what the text is trying to say."

Not at all. I've appreciated the greater implications of general danger to the pakistani-based sanctuaries of the Afghan Taliban scattered along the ENTIRE length of the border. It is, after all, reasonable for Pakistan to extend it's sovereign control over the southwest as well as the western tribal areas, is it not? Just as necessary. Just not as generally understood. I'm one of those that do.

U.S. forces in the east have faced diminished levels of violence over the last year as that same violence has increased in the south of Afghanistan. Mehsud's forces will have no direct effect on battles fought in southern Afghanistan.

However, Mehsud's ability to thoroughly alienate and enflame the determination of the Pakistani gov't/army is salient. Omar clearly fears the spillover from this into attacks upon the general movement, endangering the one strategic advantage that the taliban hold- safe Pakistani sanctuary, long developed and networked. This could easily include Balochistan. Were the Pakistani Army to assert itself throughout the Baluchi area in a manner similar to recent events in SWAT, as example , NATO's main supply route would be assured while simultaneously endangering Taliban security within Baluchistan.

Omar desperately wants accord with Musharraf. You, Road Runner, seem willing to accomodate the miscreant criminal, Omar, for the sake of near-term political expediency-

"Though it does seem Mullah Omar, if he said this, is a bit more friendlier with the Pakistani government now, whilst Al Q have been urging attacks on the Pakistani government. That would be a welcome difference."

Pakistan should do everything possible to jail this thug and his twisted friends, if not kill them out-right and with extreme prejudice. You've essentially made the case for Pakistani governmental collusion and facilitation of an insurgency from within your borders against a sovereign neighboring nation. Tasty stuff there.

"...this is pretty much proof that the Pakistani Taliban have not been fighting in Afghanistan."

No. Actually it would only affirm that of late, for more compelling and immediate reasons (to include a premature and mis-guided sense of opportunity to wrest FATAland, etc. from the Pakistani gov't), Mehsud's boys have been inwardly directed. I've no doubt that they know well where and how to find Americans should they desire. The paths are reasonably well-worn. It also proves that Mehsud's nascent movement is subordinated to the Afghans. The primacy and nature of the relationship is clear. The Pakistani Taliban is expected to facilitate and propagate a safe, sympathetic, nurturing sanctuary/enclave from which forces will sortie for attacks on the government of Afghanistan and NATO.

Complicity by the Pakistani government in such an arrangement is a sadly common suspicion. It would, of course, explain much.

"This major development occurred at a time when Pakistan was reaching out with an olive branch to the Pakistani Taliban. Main commanders, including Hafiz Gul Bahadur and the main Afghan Taliban based in Pakistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani, signed peace agreements."

Deflection of taliban forces from protected sanctuaries on Pakistani soil toward Afghanistan encourages de-stabilization. I finally understand now why it makes sense thanks to you, Road Runner.

Sure...the Taliban are Pakistan's proteges- cultivated since the Soviet invasion to always assure the necessary strategic depth against India. I really didn't think that this kind of thinking could persist at the highest levels of the Pakistani government but it's entirely probable that I'm wrong. That explains a lot about this stuff concerning the ISI being the "Ministry of Taliban Affairs".

Hmmm...allies in the WoT, eh? I'd sure like to think so but something just isn't right here.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Mullah Omar needs some breathing room---It truly was stupid on part of Mesud to take on the pakistani forces. The man just could not contain within hisself---no startegy---no gamesmanship---no appreciation of the importance of the task at hand---praise brought the fox down as well---the praise from fanatic mullahs, Imran Khan, Qazi Hussain and other politicians put so much air in his head that he really thought himself to be invincible. Bad strategy, bad tacticts, bad advice. A 25 years old pakistan taliban has no clue what the priorities of the afghan taliban are.

Bad choice on the part of Mullah Omar to pick this young man to lead the taliban---he should have stuck with an afghan taliban leader who would have had his priorities staright---ie to keep the combat in afghanistan---keep the pakistani millitary away from your back---don't create too many problems for the frontier constabulary---but then all good things and terrible things need to come to an end. Some sooner than the others.

 

[S-2]

"...all good things and terrible things need to come to an end. Some sooner than the others."

The end for Omar can be permanent if so desired by the Pakistani Army.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

RR:

"Though it does seem Mullah Omar, if he said this, is a bit more friendlier with the Pakistani government now, whilst Al Q have been urging attacks on the Pakistani government. That would be a welcome difference."

I would have to agree with S-2 that "accommodating" Mullah Omar is only going to result in short term strategic gains. I see no reason to believe that Mullah Omar is anything but the leader of the "hard line Taliban" - he refused to consider negotiations and power sharing agreements with the other Afghan parties during the rise of the Taliban, and "accommodating" him will only result in the vicious cycle being repeated.

There is nothing left for Pakistan in the Taliban, save a buffer against an expansionist Afghan agenda supported and pursued by warlords with a sense of profound hate for Pakistan. On this matter, however, I would have to point at your side, S-2, as being capable of pushing for change in Afghan policy towards Pakistan (an agreement towards the finality of the Durand line) - in the manner that Inderfurth has expressed.

On the story itself, it is also entirely possible that this was a GoP plant to spread confusion within Taliban ranks and move support away from Mehsud. Either way, I hope that Pakistan does not "accomodate" Mullah Omar again.

 

[roadrunner]

Thanks.

"You've misunderstood what the text is trying to say."

Not at all. I've appreciated the greater implications of general danger to the pakistani-based sanctuaries of the Afghan Taliban scattered along the ENTIRE length of the border.

The Afghan Taliban do exist along the Afghan-Pak border, but to suggest that the Afghani Taliban all exist from within Pakistan is pretty foolish. The violence in central Afghanistan and Western Afghanistan could not take place on such a grand scale by having Pakistani-based Afghan Taliban sanctuaries only. Logistically and culturally it would be impossible to shuffle enough footsoldiers to say Musa Qala without being seen by NATO forces for example. The implication of what you say is that Pakistan should be able to spot Afghan Taliban border crossings, but trans-Afghan movement of Taliban foot soldiers may well not be spotted by NATO (despite having more sophisticated images available). Such a statement does not make much sense in fairness. How should one expect Pakistan to stop border crossings, when the US cannot stop the movement of Taliban footsoldiers in Afghanistan? (Presumes that the Taliban all eminate from the tribal areas and need to travel to their attack destination) .. Nonsensical to say the least.

Anyway, what I meant was is that you misread the words supposedly said by Mullah Omar to mean there is no fighting in Afghanistan, which you then concluded is proof that all the violence in Afghanistan is due to the "Taliban" if Mehsud in the tribal areas. I pointed out that the fighting in Afghanistan has reached its peak now, and that when he said the Afghan Front, he meant Baitullah Mehsud's area of operation. In other words, by Mullah Omar's own words, the Pakistani Taliban have not been operating in Afghanistan.

It is, after all, reasonable for Pakistan to extend it's sovereign control over the southwest as well as the western tribal areas, is it not? Just as necessary. Just not as generally understood. I'm one of those that do.

Pakistan has soverign control over the southwest and the tribal areas. Why would it need to extend anything. Pakistan wants the Durand Line implemented if you know the history of the region.

U.S. forces in the east have faced diminished levels of violence over the last year as that same violence has increased in the south of Afghanistan. Mehsud's forces will have no direct effect on battles fought in southern Afghanistan.

Right, Mehsud's forces won't reach southern, central or Western Afghanistan. They may only be able to fight in Eastern Afghanistan at most. And according to Mullah Omar he is not even fighting in Eastern Afghanistan, but is fighting in Pakistan. If you consult the map, you will find that violence in the East has not diminished recently though.

However, Mehsud's ability to thoroughly alienate and enflame the determination of the Pakistani gov't/army is salient. Omar clearly fears the spillover from this into attacks upon the general movement, endangering the one strategic advantage that the taliban hold- safe Pakistani sanctuary, long developed and networked. This could easily include Balochistan. Were the Pakistani Army to assert itself throughout the Baluchi area in a manner similar to recent events in SWAT, as example , NATO's main supply route would be assured while simultaneously endangering Taliban security within Baluchistan.

One possibility that one could not deny outright, but again this is pure speculation that can be explained in a zillion different ways. It could be exactly as Mullah Omar says in the article, that he wants to redirect the Pakistani Taliban forces into the Afghan front on the border, in Pakhtia. It could also be as you say, but there is no evidence for this, there is evidence for the redirection of forces theory, as it's in the article above. On the one hand you say that the Pakistani Army are helping the Taliban by allowing them space on Pakistani soil to mount attacks on the US in Afghanistan. On the other, the Taliban (in Pakistan) are attacking the Pakistani Army. It makes little sense if you think about it, of course the reality is that the Pakistani Taliban have nothing to do with Afghanistan, and that's why they're attacking only in Pakistan, or on the border in Pakhtia.

Omar desperately wants accord with Musharraf. You, Road Runner, seem willing to accomodate the miscreant criminal, Omar, for the sake of near-term political expediency-

"Though it does seem Mullah Omar, if he said this, is a bit more friendlier with the Pakistani government now, whilst Al Q have been urging attacks on the Pakistani government. That would be a welcome difference."

Well, I don't represent anyone's viewpoint, I just give you a neutral analysis. You seem to take everything to the personal level. Like I said before, the correct viewpoint isn't always the American viewpoint, and isn't always the Pakistani viewpoint, I'm just being neutral in this and calling it like I see it. You seem to think of it like it's a war against anything that moves. Let's not be so "gung-ho"! And mind reading isn't something I believe in.

Pakistan should do everything possible to jail this thug and his twisted friends, if not kill them out-right and with extreme prejudice. You've essentially made the case for Pakistani governmental collusion and facilitation of an insurgency from within your borders against a sovereign neighboring nation. Tasty stuff there.

I made no such case as far as I recall. I stated that it's a possibility that Mullah Omar might have come to some arrangement with the Pakistani government, but this is just a conspiracy. I could also suggest that 911 was an inside job, which is another conspiracy. You seem to take the first as fact because it suits your viewpoint. This isn't neutral analysis.

"...this is pretty much proof that the Pakistani Taliban have not been fighting in Afghanistan."

No. Actually it would only affirm that of late, for more compelling and immediate reasons (to include a premature and mis-guided sense of opportunity to wrest FATAland, etc. from the Pakistani gov't), Mehsud's boys have been inwardly directed.

Right, so the Pakistani Taliban haven't been fighting in Afghanistan according to you - Conclusion 1 to note. This suggests the Afghani Taliban have been doing all the fighting in Afghanistan.

I've no doubt that they know well where and how to find Americans should they desire. The paths are reasonably well-worn. It also proves that Mehsud's nascent movement is subordinated to the Afghans. The primacy and nature of the relationship is clear. The Pakistani Taliban is expected to facilitate and propagate a safe, sympathetic, nurturing sanctuary/enclave from which forces will sortie for attacks on the government of Afghanistan and NATO.

The suggestion here is that the Pakistani Taliban provide the sanctuary for ALL the Afghani Taliban. You can now try and explain to me how high level violence is seen in Farah province (western Afghanistan), when all the Afghani Taliban are holed up in their sanctuaries a thousand miles to the East in Pakistan along the Afghan-Pak border? If you can explain this, then explain how the US is unable to stop these Talibani from reaching their destination in Farah, when the US expects Pakistan to be able to stop the movement of the same Talibani "out of their sanctuaries" in Pakistan? Don't you think you're getting a little bit confused and carried away now?

Complicity by the Pakistani government in such an arrangement is a sadly common suspicion. It would, of course, explain much.

It's been explained how the complicity that you are thinking off is a far fetched and ignorant hypothesis..It is logistically impossible for the Afghan Taliban to be holed up in Pakistan, and move unhindered through Afghanistan to their attack destinations, as you are suggesting. If you can explain this, then you should ask why are they not stopped from moving so freely, when Pakistan is expected to stop their supposed movement across the border.

"This major development occurred at a time when Pakistan was reaching out with an olive branch to the Pakistani Taliban. Main commanders, including Hafiz Gul Bahadur and the main Afghan Taliban based in Pakistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani, signed peace agreements."

Asia times link..very poor

Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan

But Sirajuddin Haqqani is someone I've never heard of before. He sounds like small fish. He seems to have been fighiting in Waziristan, not in Afghanistan.

Deflection of taliban forces from protected sanctuaries on Pakistani soil toward Afghanistan encourages de-stabilization. I finally understand now why it makes sense thanks to you, Road Runner.

There is perhaps some Pakistani Taliban that fight in Pakhtia, but according to Mullah Omar's statement, the Pakistani Taliban have not been fighting in Pakhtia recently, instead only in Pakistan.

Sure...the Taliban are Pakistan's proteges- cultivated since the Soviet invasion to always assure the necessary strategic depth against India.

The Taliban are US, Saudi, Pakistani and Afghani proteges. The US provided the training, the military equipment to them, the Saudi funded and educated them, the Pakistanis provided them with training space, and the Afghanis were the cannon fodder.

I really didn't think that this kind of thinking could persist at the highest levels of the Pakistani government but it's entirely probable that I'm wrong. That explains a lot about this stuff concerning the ISI being the "Ministry of Taliban Affairs".

Hmmm...allies in the WoT, eh? I'd sure like to think so but something just isn't right here.

Not sure what you're on about here. You seem to be suggesting that de-stabilization is in Pakistan's interests. That's not true, but what is in Pakistan's interests is to get a more democratic government in Afghanistan that reflects the population ethnic composition of the people. To destabilize Afghanistan is not in Pakistan's interests though.

And I'm not sure why you're tsk tsking, and so on, I'm giving you a neutral non partisan analysis which you don't seem to be able to comprehend anyone would do, then wetting yourself with paranoia whenever a viewpoint doesn't seemingly fit your own. If it's the WoT you're on about, I don't really support it, but then I don't support the Muslim extremists either.

 

[roadrunner]

RR:

"Though it does seem Mullah Omar, if he said this, is a bit more friendlier with the Pakistani government now, whilst Al Q have been urging attacks on the Pakistani government. That would be a welcome difference."

I would have to agree with S-2 that "accommodating" Mullah Omar is only going to result in short term strategic gains. I see no reason to believe that Mullah Omar is anything but the leader of the "hard line Taliban" - he refused to consider negotiations and power sharing agreements with the other Afghan parties during the rise of the Taliban, and "accommodating"
him will only result in the vicious cycle being repeated.

There is nothing left for Pakistan in the Taliban, save a buffer against an expansionist Afghan agenda supported and pursued by warlords with a sense of profound hate for Pakistan. On this matter, however, I would have to point at your side, S-2, as being capable of pushing for change in Afghan policy towards Pakistan (an agreement towards the finality of the Durand line) - in the manner that Inderfurth has expressed.

On the story itself, it is also entirely possible that this was a GoP plant to spread confusion within Taliban ranks and move support away from Mehsud. Either way, I hope that Pakistan does not "accomodate" Mullah Omar again.

Read what I wrote again. There is nothing there to suggest that a realignment with the Taliban in Afghanistan would be beneficial for the Pakistani government afaik. It was simply a commentary about what may have happened, but there's a thousand other possibilities. The "welcome difference" bit is just a welcome differnce that the Taliban and Al Q have different perceptions of Pakistan which are bound to conflict eventually.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

The "welcome difference" bit is just a welcome differnce that the Taliban and Al Q have different perceptions of Pakistan which are bound to conflict eventually.

Thank you for clarifying.

 

[MastanKhan]

S-2,

Should have given us the 36 F 16's within the first few months of the assault---there would have been no headaches. Just compare it to paying $300 to sunnis in iraq---they could have paid $100 to each iraqi soldier and kept them on the retainer to build the country 5 years ago.

Now remeber---Mullah Omar was in Kandhar when u s troops captured that city---they knew he was in the town---why did they not have better planning to capture him---he is not an invisible man----he would stand out in a crown of 10 thousand people with his one eye----this guy escaped riding pillion on a 100cc yamaha motorcycle---did the u s had no assets in the air around the city---all these escapes by the top al qaeda and taliban at the same time---under similiar circumstances---looks so suspicious and intentional---have the americans lost all of it---can't they see the treachery and larceny in their own ranks---a bitter pill to swallow isn't it---if you want to do the job right---you have to do it yourself---when the things are within your frame of influence--- right time the first time when you have the oppurtunity.

 

[mujahideen]

S-2,

Should have given us the 36 F 16's within the first few months of the assault---there would have been no heaaches. Just compare it to paying $300 to sunnis in iraq---they could have paid $100 to each iraqi soldier and kept them on the retainer to build the country 5 years ago.

Now remeber---Mullah Omar was in Kandhar when u stroops captured that city---they knew he was in the town---why did they not have better planning to capture him---he is not an invisible man----he stand out in a crown of 10 thousand people with his one eye----this guy escaped riding pillion on a 100cc yamaha motorcycle---did the u s had no assets in the air around the city---all these escapes by the top al qaeda and taliban at the same time---under similiar circumstances---looks so suspicious and intentional---have the americans lost all of it---can't they see the treachery and larceny in their own ranks---a bitter pill to swallow isn't it---if you want to do the job right---you have to do it yourself---when the things are within your frame of influence--- right time the first time when you have the oppurtunity.

Well said. The Americans will never admit they were wrong and they will blame everything on Pakistan.