I am talking about a disaster, if you end up with a hard landing. Brussels is not willing to provide you a Switzerland/Norway like option to stay out and yet stay in. So far, it is only a limbo. BREXIT should have been calculated carefully, taking into account, the spread of British business houses and single-market architecture which has guided Britain's trade and commerce since decades.
It will not be a hard landing, at the very least it will be a 'Canada plus plus deal' as described by Donald Tusk himself.
The European Union is ready to offer Britain a form of “Canada-plus” Brexit trade deal, Donald Tusk has said
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ers-britain-canada-brexit-trade-deal-demands/
Anything better is a bonus.
What deal? Do you really think that the British can enjoy a single market ecosystem with the Chinese, us and Japanese, which they had with the EU? China has an overwhelming dominance in terms of manufacturing and technology, India in terms of resources & market depth and Japan in terms of innovation capabilities.
Dude what is the point me engaging with you when you clearly haven't even read up? An ambitious free trade deal is in the offing once we leave, the groundwork has been agreed. It's a wait now;
China and Britain have agreed to look at the possibility of reaching a “top notch” free trade agreement after Britain leaves the European Union, China’s Commerce Ministry said on Saturday after talks with British trade minister Liam Fox.
The two countries also agreed to “actively explore the possibility of discussing a top notch free trade agreement between the two sides after Brexit”, the ministry added, without giving details.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-c...scuss-top-notch-free-trade-deal-idUKKCN1LA0IB
Obviously the UK will not be enjoying single market status with the countries you mentioned because they have no such system in place, it will be free trade agreements.
As for the countries you mentioned;
The Chinese have an edge in low end manufacturing as we no longer deal with it, but they are no way on par technologically with the UK.
India has resources in some areas like human resources, but lags behind massively in everything else. I do agree with market depth, that's to do with capacity for growth and your population.
Japan and innovation? Come again? The UK is far more innovative than Japan is and will ever be. Innovation in today's world is artificial intelligence, genetics, medical breakthroughs, computer science and high end manufacturing, all of which we lead the world in, alongside the USA.
Look at the innovation index for yourself and see where the UK is and where Japan is;
http://www.wipo.int/pressroom/en/articles/2018/article_0005.html
The UK is fourth, and is always in the top 5, Japan is 13th.
Yes, London is the world's biggest financial centre and it is a prominent trade and investment destination; but compared to the access within EU?
Think about it.
Yes I have thought about, the EU's share of world trade (GDP) is falling, countries within the EU have consumer spending far below that of the UK and so on. Yes it's important but it's relevance is declining, but it still doesn't take away the fact how attractive the UK is for business.
As for Spain, I only mentioned what has been reported by your media houses such as Guardian, BBC etc. Not that I consider Spain to be an economic powerhouse. But if they are liberalising and offering a single-market ecosystem to Toyota and Nissan and other big Japanese companies, naturally the companies would consider moving there.
Such media houses do have a bias slant but anyway, Spain's economy is consumption driven and still plagued by political issues and red tape.
Look at the 'ease of doing business index' the UK is 7th place and Spain 28th....You can look at the parameters for yourself i.e. starting a business, getting credit, dealing with construction permits, registering property, getting electricity and protecting minority investors.
http://www.doingbusiness.org/en/rankings
Oh and you may want to also look at the Forbes ranking of 'countries best for business',
yes we rank number 1.
https://www.forbes.com/best-countries-for-business/list/
No Japanese business is going there from the UK, like I said in my previous post.
Unless you end up getting an EEZ deal like Norway did, things look pretty bleak.
It will be a good deal, and with the backing of our allies things should turn out fine.
Anyway in a related development the US just threw their weight behind the UK over the clearing of derivatives after Brexit;
https://www.ft.com/content/f9ba5588-d21a-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5
One of the US’s top regulators has threatened to stop European banks from using US futures markets if the EU refuses to water down post-Brexit plans to oversee clearing houses.
Christopher Giancarlo, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said on Wednesday
that EU plans — ostensibly in response to the UK’s move to leave the EU — were “completely irresponsible” and could be met with a stern reaction from Washington. “These are blunt and strong tools,” Mr Giancarlo said, acknowledging that it could have a serious impact on global markets. “None of these options represent a course of action that I wish to pursue.”
Mr Giancarlo’s fierce warning comes as
UK authorities try to remove tensions with the EU around the issue of clearing as the UK’s departure from the bloc nears. If a resolution could not be found, he warned the CFTC could unilaterally take its own action —
including barring EU banks from using critical US infrastructure such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The CME is widely used by banks around the world to hedge their exposures to dollar swaps and US Treasuries. It could also bar US institutions from EU entities such as Deutsche Börse’s Eurex, which trades futures pegged to the prices of German government bonds.
The industry at the heart of global market stability has become a political battleground between authorities. Clearing houses are important backstops in financial markets, managing the risk if either side on a derivative transaction — a company or a bank — defaults.
The City of London is the leading global player in the trading and clearing of derivatives, including 90 per cent of euro-denominated swaps.
To compensate for the UK’s departure from the EU, Brussels wants to equip their regulators with more direct oversight of London clearers. The European Commission’s package of reforms relating to clearing houses are slowly working their way through the Brussels legislative pipeline, with member states divided over the implications of centralising oversight.
The US and UK have a common cause in resisting European plans for extensive oversight, with both sides supporting “deference” to local regulators,
with close co-operation. While no breakthrough is imminent in the negotiations, the US has increased pressure due to progress being made that has potential implications for non-EU clearing houses. The latest warnings from Washington fit a pattern of turbulent US-EU talks over the regulation of clearing houses. While both sides have threatened potentially dire consequences for markets, the disputes have typically been resolved amicably. Mr Giancarlo has long argued for the EU to rethink its plans, arguing they could also be applied to US markets. In his strongest warning so far he said the plans were “wholly unacceptable”. US market participants would be in the “completely untenable position of having to choose between violating domestic laws and regulations or violating foreign laws and regulations”, he told a derivatives conference in Chicago.
@Indus Pakistan
