Experts Say Pakistan-US MRAP Deal Likely To Win Approval
Sep. 23, 2014 - 04:41PM | By USMAN ANSARI
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A proposed US sale to Pakistan of 160 MaxxPro MRAP vehicles is likely to win US congressional approval even though the war against the Pakistani Taliban appears to be ending, Pakistan experts say. (US Army)
ISLAMABAD — Analysts say that a proposition to supply hundreds of mine-resistant, ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles to Pakistan is likely although the war against the Pakistani Taliban and its allies and affiliates is winding down.
The Sept. 19 notification from the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency to US lawmakers of the possible $198 million foreign military sale to Pakistan, at its government’s request, outlined a package including 160 MRAPs, spares and repair parts, and training. The deal comprises “110 MaxxPro Dash DXM, 30 MaxxPro Base DXM, 10 MaxxPro Dash DXM Ambulances, and 10 MaxxPro Recovery Vehicles with protection kits,” according to the agency’s announcement. US company Navistar Defense produces the MaxxPro vehicles.
Brian Cloughley, a former Australian defense attache to Pakistan, said this is a reasonable number.
“At 12 per infantry company, this would fit 10 companies, with others for HQ, back-up, etc. — a pretty potent force,” he said.
When the proposed deal first became public in April, it was uncertain if Congress would approve. Cloughley, who expressed surprise at the deal, believes this is now much more likely to happen.
“It wouldn’t be put forward by the Pentagon if they thought it wouldn’t get through Congress,” he said. “No sense in buying fights you’re going to lose. So they must have had some assurance from the relevant committee that there will be approval.”
Pakistan’s security forces have faced a well-documented risk from IEDs that have caused the majority of its casualties during the past decade of counter-insurgency operations in the Tribal Areas.
Analyst Haris Khan of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank said the security services’ operations have resulted in a lot of casualties attributed to IEDs and ambush tactics used by the terrorists, blaming many of these casualties on the use of regular four-wheel-drive Toyota Hilux pickup trucks to transport security personnel.
“These pickup trucks have no protection, even from 9mm ammo,” Khan said. “With this order at least they will be able to fill this gaping hole.”
This order could lead to further deliveries, Khan said, as “there is a good possibility that the Pakistani security services could receive more of these MRAP vehicles via EDA.”
Previously Pakistan attempted to find a solution by examining domestic and foreign options. Though most foreign options proved to be too costly, an agreement was negotiated in 2012 with Chinese company Poly Technologies for its CS/VP3 MRAP vehicle, which is generally similar to the MaxxPro. No deal materialized, however.
Pakistan’s state-owned Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) also sought to develop an indigenous four-wheel-drive MRAP vehicle, the Burraq. Though it has never been displayed in public, a prototype exists, and available images show it has been redesigned to increase the angle of its hulls V shape in order to increase survivability against under-vehicle explosions.
Last October, however, HIT said the Burraq was “on hold.” There has been no further news and the company has not commented on its status.
Cloughley, who has seen the Burraq, thinks it was adequate for Pakistan’s needs but has been quietly shelved.
The campaign against the Pakistani Taliban is winding down, with most terrorists either killed, captured or chased out of Pakistan.
Nevertheless, security is likely to remain troubled, and analysts said the requirement for MRAPs remains.
“It does seem a bit late in the game for the army to suddenly want MRAP vehicles, but it’s likely that negotiations have been going on for a very long time,” Cloughley said. “They will certainly be a most important force multiplier in the fight against terrorists, as IEDs are still the main battlefield threat.”
He noted they will not be operational immediately. “They will be a long time coming, and then there are a great many tactics to learn.”
Pakistan also is believed to be negotiating licensed production of the Chinese VN-1 eight-wheel-drive armored personnel carrier.
Khan said he believes that despite the MaxxPro deal, the VN1 program is likely safe as it is “fulfilling a long-overdue requirement for a wheeled [infantry fighting vehicle]. ?The VN-1 order is a planned program aimed for deployment with mechanized divisions and for fighting militants.” ■
Email: uansari@defensenews.com.