Mark Carney Becomes Canada's New Liberal Leader: What’s Next

[HaiderAfan]

The Liberal Party of Canada is picking Mark Carney as the new leader, succeeding Justin Trudeau as the new Prime Minister. Carney, previously governor of the Bank of Canada, was elected as leader on March 9, two months after Trudeau said he would not seek another term under pressure from mounting concerns over the economy and worsening trade tensions with the United States.

Carney steps in as Canada approaches a federal election, set for October 20, though it could come sooner. Relations between Canada and the US have also soured since President Donald Trump imposed heavy tariffs on Canadian exports.

Carney’s Leadership Victory​

Carney trounced former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, MP Karina Gould and businessman Frank Baylis in the leadership race. But he is not currently in Parliament and has never held any elected office.

In Canada’s parliamentary system, it is not necessary for a prime minister to be an elected MP, but they do need to command that confidence of the House of Commons. As the Liberals govern as a minority, Carney will certainly have to adopt a somewhat tenuous political position when/if he leads.

Trudeau’s Resignation Process​

Trudeau, who has served since 2015, said in January he would resign as Liberal leader and prime minister after electing a successor. As a result of Carney’s election as leader, Trudeau must now formally resign by sitting down with the governor general, the formal representative of Canada’s head of state.

Before Carney can be sworn in as prime minister, the governor general has to accept Trudeau’s resignation. Trudeau has also not given a specific date for stepping down but said last week that he is looking forward to the transition “in the coming days or week.”

The Next Steps for Carney as Prime Minister​

Carney will be charged with forming a government once he is formally appointed. According to reports, preparations for transition have already started. Governing: A cabinet must be assembled, and Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc are expected to play leading roles in a Carney administration.

As the head of a minority government, Carney will have to garner parliamentary backing for his policies. The Conservative Party, the Bloc Québécois, and to a lesser extent, the NDP, oppose the current minority Liberal government, and in a slim minority, the opposition parties have signaled they will challenge the government at the first opportunity, which may well lead to an early election.

Entering the House of Commons​

Carney’s No. 1 priority will be getting elected to the House of Commons. It is not required, but being an elected MP would cement his legitimacy as prime minister. If that happens, he can either run for that seat in a by-election — a contest to fill a vacant seat — or wait to face voters in the next general election.

Political analysts say the decision on whether to hold a by-election to fill the seat of Ó Ríordain ahead of the next general election, estimated to take place in 2025, or to wait and call early general election reflects polling data and internal party strategy. Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s tariffs have Liberal support soaring, a red wave in the forecast, and some experts say an early election is an eventuality.

The Danger of a No-Confidence Vote​

An election could be as far away as October 2025 if elections in 2023 and 2024 didn’t make business that came before Carney’s government a concern for Canada’s opposition parties, which only need to pass a no-confidence vote to force an election. Parliament is suspended since Trudeau’s resignation announcement, with lawmakers returning March 24. The Conservatives and Bloc Québécois have both already signalled they plan to challenge the Liberals at every opportunity.

A successful no-confidence vote would force the Liberals into an election campaign. Until then, Carney’s government would operate as a caretaker, running essential services but abstaining from any major policy moves.

Dangers of An Unelected Prime Minister​

Carney as an unelected leader faces more scrutiny. He is not subject to parliamentary rules on the financial holdings and conflicts of interest disclosure, fuelling calls from the opposition MPs for him to "volunteer" to adhere to the rules.

There also are security concerns about Carney’s access to sensitive government information. In a statement to Global News, Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner accused Carney of receiving briefings on US tariffs while Parliament remained suspended, saying it was “unacceptable” for an “unelected leader” to be privy to privileged information.

Now to cement his place and deflect further criticism, Carney will also have to win a seat in Parliament quickly and he must erode public support for both, as well as negotiate the complexity of the political landscape between now and the next election.

What’s Next?​

It’s unclear what Canada’s political future will look like with Carney running the Liberal Party. His does ensuring economic challenges, US trade tensions and timing of the next federal election. However, a parliamentary seat, via by-election or general vote, will be critical if Carney is to guide Canada into its next chapter.