TeaLeavesMeditations: Possible vs. Probable - UglyTruths
By Mangus
The Wheel..... wasn't it always there?
Someone brought the Lion out of a stone block...called it sculpture!
Morality?
HumanRights?
The Right Thing?
The Ethics?
The Art?
The Civilisation?
A dead squirrel, ran over, flattened by the V8 SUV can be all of the above...and some more...
Difficult to remain unbiased when meditating on TeaLeaves, even more so when the desire is to be a BemusedObserver.... but then it is what it is!
This world of ours... this TechnoFeudalFiefdom.... needs to be observed... with detachment... only then can one, perhaps, begin to understand the totality of it... and if mind applied actively..the interconnection.
Total World GDP-2019 = $86Trillion
Total World Debt-2019 = $257Trillion
Then there is a mutch studied, less highlighted PensionBombz in EU, US, China, Japan, Indian and of course, OurLand... yeah, we do have a PensionBumb...much more powerful than our AtumBumb!
Just for example, for the curious ones, the UK, in 2015, had a pensions shortfall of $4Trillion ... and its economy is what... GDP $2.6Trillion....by 2050 the shorfall is forecasted to be $33Trillion...
A sample of the things...on this BluePlanet... anyone more interested in numbers can do the legwork and compile the global net pension shortfall picture.. NOT pretty!
Old people just refuse to die it seems..and young ones rather not breed.... Gap is natural or is it?
In this wonderland of numbers we need see the big fella in the room.... the GrandDaddyDeriviate at $1.2+Quadrillion i.e. $1200Trillion.... since, it is in asset class ...so it must be an asset to be traded around....
But How it is made? Regulated? Taxed? Tracked and Traced?
Just for perspective..... this means DaddyDeriviates are about 14 times the Entire Global GDP!
The CombinedWest (US, GCC, EU, NZ, Aus, UK, Turk, JP, SK, CD, Mexico) is more than double the Chinese GDP of $14.3 Trillion - 2019.
That is just the scope of Yuan vs. DollarSystem in terms of GDP.
And DaddyDeriviate is in $ mostly!
However, it is meaningless or rather non-enlightening if we just look at numbers and declare one thing or another....
We need to develop a proper Model to give each Vector a Weight to understand the Possibilities and Probabilities of...yet to unfold 'things'.
India with its $2.7+Trillion economy is no more superpower than tiny Singapore... this without a bias....
Singapore has more hightech export and far better integeration in GlobalTechnoFeudalHieracy with its TechnoInfrastructure than a country of 1.3+Bln... AtumbBumb or no AtumBumb... and when we apply this to OurLand...well.. TheUglyTruths... even more damning!
World is Always Ruled by TechoFeudalism:
The day a HumanBeing threw a stone to hunt or harm ... or broke a branch to extend his/her reach TechnoFeudalism was born.
The rest to this very moment is a ChainReaction!
Life is Logistics.
War is Logistics.
Economy is Logistics.
It would be accademically very satisfying to cover the tracks of the said ChainReaction... but then one would distract focus from the thesis at hand....
From the ChineseGunPower and hand held mini cannons to Musket to the newest of autmatic rifles... the innovation has been incremental and linear rather.
We, IndusValleyPeople, have been looking at steam for past 5000+yrs but it was a Britisher who thought of creating an enigne and with that gave Birth to ModernWorld. IndustrialRevolution .... from steam to combustion engine was not a DisruptiveInnovaiton but a liner one, an incremental... some might disagree...
For the First Time in Human History we had tools faster and more powerful than we ever were.... from steam-powered tractors to steam-powered cotton-weaving industry.... London in deep smog as added bonus... weaving industry in British India collapsed and with it a lot of things....
The above is just a Marker to point a certain Momentum... but how was the world we were living in in OurLand.... ?
What were we doing?
What was our Momentum?
From Morocco to Indonesia .... we were having a self contained and self-sustaining world.... horse and sword... and the peasant to feed...
European sailed out when their world became sick, poor or not self sustaining... they felt compelled to move out... not knowing that El Doradoz were waiting for them....
The need for accurate navigation compelled the innovations... better knowing of the longitutde and latitudes became necessary knowledge.... just came to trade!?
Just like OurWorld the ChineseWorld was also self-sustaining and rather well off.... without compulsion to venture out... not discarding the Voyages of that famous Chinese Muslim Sailor...gave birth to Sindbad legends/stories... but the Chinese voyages were for only trading and fulfilling couresity...without further compulsion.
Madgascar DNA is rather interesting!
The MiddleKingdom was blissfully unaware of the changing TechnoFeudalHierachy... so it went on its Historic Momentum with occasional WarLord or Two disturbing the HeavenlyOrder....until the RedCoats....
Tea and Silver for Opium... fair trade. Why not? Squirrel!
NepoleanicWars or AmericanRevolution or subsequent .... must be seen through the prism of TechnoFeudalStruggle and not just some political framework...it just retards the subject matter to glorification and platitudes....
That the Chinese Innovations made way to Europe and played an important part in triggering Industrialism in Europe is much studied subject.... and dennying it is rather sheepish at best!
Regardless, continuing the ForcedMarch .... the GunboatDiploz did open up trade with Nippon but they couldn't see far into the future that the JapaneseMind was rather intelligent!
FirstWorldWar and some mustard gas.... bascially a civil war ...and many millions dead.
But at its Heart was the TechnoFeudalism....
The War against Germany was a Planned War...with carefully created rhetoric about BabyEatingGermans or EvilGermans... or the JustWar.... but it was all about keeping the Germans boxed within Germany.... since, Germans had taken Industrialism to the whole new level and wanted to have their own colonies...
So Starving Germany by blockades or attackingits SupplyChain was a preplanned act to maintain BritishTechnoFeudalHierachy!
WorldWarTwo was just the continuation of the same TechnoFeudalHierachy war...only this time Germans had made actual Technological Disruptive Innovations....
War ended and the NewOrder came into being....
Germans caught and brought to US or USSR continued to work for the new 'employers'.... the ColdWar was TechnoFeudalWar ...a continuation of NeopolianicWars.....
V2 on London... and same V2 gave birth to 'rockets' for Sputnik or Man-on-The-Moon-One-Great-Leap-For-Mankind....
In all this thoroughly Western TechnoFeudalStruggle only Nippon was able to Challenge the TechnoFeudalHierachy of the West.... till FatBoy ended the romance for the surrendering Samurais!
The Last Major TechnoFeudalHierachyWar WW2 did give birth to most of the things we call the ModernWorld. ....
Without Enigma ...brilliant, genius Turing would have not been able to create the 'modern' computer ....CodeBreaker... or give Birth to Artifical/Machine Intelligence...
Landing on Moon or Mars...is in a way continuation of the V2 falling on London.... there has been no Redical/Disruptive Innovation in this but rather incremental one.
Even the Bomb was couresty Germans.... would be sheepish to deny...
The TechnoFeudalHierachyStruggle between the US and USSR gave birth to many things...mostly incremental... the Only Great Leap Forward in Transformation has been the Internet and Desktop.... rest is just sibbling/offshoots.
And OurWorld... smashed into pieces and made in its own image by the TechnoFeudalHierachy of the West.... Squirrel!
What is Our Net Contribution to the TechnoFeudalism in terms of innovation, knowledge, methods, process or new framework of Science of Science?
What are we?
Have we changed?
Or are we still Colonised?
And by whose consent?
Only we can Fill the Hole in OurSoul!
China vs. The CombinedWest:
Of late we have seen to and fro .... mudslinging ...claims...counter-claims... and of course, LabCreated vs Natural KhooniVirus/KillerVirus!
For us, Paks, it is rather immaterial if one or the other is true or false.
This we need to keep in mind and have total clarity. We remain the CheapBlood... TheUglyTruth!
Past Pacing:
We need to be in HongKong highrise...boardroom meeting where things were agreed between the Americans and the Chinese before the Great Opening of China!
Nixxon took the Credit but it was us Paks who created the ground conditions for such a GreatMarriage to take place.
US-China vs. USSR! Let the Game begin..... till Evil Empire of the Great Ronald Regan...Dutch.... Deng in Cowboy hat .... all Bohemians.... Love in the air!
HowdeeModi?
China had essentially agreed to be part of The CombinedWest and The CombinedWest had agreed to the let CCP be... Win-Win.
Just like in the case of Nippon what the CombinedWest didn't see was the deep NationalSubconcious and BrainPower of the Chinese who had also a Hole in the Soul .... SummerPalace in Ashes... 'foreign devils'.... telling the MiddleKingdom ... that they were the TechnoFeudalOverlords now...
Hide your Strength Bid your Time....
It was and is the ChineseNational Mission to revive the Glory of the MiddleKingdom... others can like it or not... and that they want to be seen as being Equal in TechnoFeudalHierachy....
The Chinese were willing to sell billions of T-shirts for one Boeing...but they had a Plan...even in those sweatshops ...what the same T-Shirts wearing CombinedWest called SlaveLabour....
Every FiveYearPlan was to bring China closer to catching up the TechnoFeudalHierachy of the CombinedWest....where the Chinese had benchmarked the Americans as example to follow or to beat...matter of perspective really.
The Chinese copied/stole/made themselves but each and every component was linked to a BiggerPicture.... the Equality in TechnoFeudalHierachy.
It is NOT just the Economy Stupid!
Now we can properly appreciate the predicament of the US as the Leader of the CombinedWest....
After the FatBoySlim the US could turn Nippon into Protectrate Japan... but not so with China!
5G.
If the US doesn't do everything to retard or slowdown the climb in the TechnoFeudalHierachy of China then troubles are more than just MilitaryPower.... $1.2Quardillion magnitude...and then T-Bills held by the emerging markets alone amount to at least $13+Trillion.... and with economic crimp/recession mortgauge market will bite the dust... ChainReactions....PainReactions....
The US had/has one clear NationalSecurityParadigm.... NO Regional Power that can challenge the US alone or in combination with others....
It is NOT new... it is the same Paradigm that made the US chase Spaniards all the way to Philpines... waterboarding invented there....
It is the same Paradigm which makes sure to keep German down and Russia out of Europe...
It was rather naive of the Russians to expect that NATO would just remain standing still looking pretty for pictures...
It is the same Paradigm which sees Turkiye a rather too independent Actor in the Med...and with 2023 looming.. Squirrel!?
The Chinese did something rather clever while the US was busy looking for WMDs in Iraq or Playing Hide n Seek in Caves of Kabulistan.... they started slowly to create a separate space for themselves without the US in it....
One thing is very important to know about the ChineseMind... it is NOT Impulsive...
These Chinese calculated that after a certain level the Americans will start seeing them as peer competitor and will do everything in their power to retard their further climb to TechnoFeudalHieracy...
They started to move away from buy T-Bills and thought of Creating their own bank AIIB...and all those bromancing days of BRICS.... but then the US killed the BRICS with taking out Brazil and India...SouthAfrica was never a player...
SCO kept moving...along with Putin's EurasianEconomicBlock dreams.... but without BRI...Putin could only do Crimea...and that too only once... Syria is just a shitshow... not a RealGame!
Obama's Pivot or Trump's TradeWar or Bush Jr. classifying China as competitor...all are the tunes of the same song.... the AmericanParadigm.
Freedom of Navigation Patrols.... Concert of Democracies... AsiaPacificProspertyPartnership... all are just tools/instruements of retarding the Chinese Climbe in TechnoFeudalHierachy!
The CombinedWest has no problem with Vietnam for making T-Shirts or something more...but with China there is NO Democracy or Free Press... the SameSong....which once the British did when they wanted to stunt /retard the German Climbe in the TechnoFeudalHieracy.... Squirrel!?
Don't Touch Me!
KhooniVirus is going places...killing people.... exposing who has clothes and who is naked.... To Herd Immune or Not To Herd Immune is not the question on the mind of this little Killer.
But what now....
The Chinese came out of the closet with their 2025 Plan which is a subset of 2050Plan!
Trump being an instruement of the AmericanDeepstate strated his TwitterTradeWar...the Chinese haven't played full ball yet...
BRI was/is a particualr target because this in fact is the biggest threat to the DollarSystem... alothough it is slow and longterm... a threat nevertheless...which the US cann't afford to ignore if it wished to remain the GrandDaddy of TechnoFeudalHierachy!
Now both, China and the US, are leaving less and less ground behind to engage in any form of The Game of Chicken .... ConfessionalStage is rather near....
HowdeeModi---$500Bln annual trade between the US and India is envisioned and the relocation of low end manufacturing to India..the kind Walmart/IKEA need.... but Modi has to deliver something in returm which he is finding cold feet to do so....
The occasional soundbites from the IA/INS chiefs need to be framed into the context described above....
But this time the CombinedWest is not interested in creating another Nippon or China which it has to deal with in another 30 odd years... so the strategy is going to be quite dispersing one...
This all can happen if China just sits idle and take it lying down.... and just go back to being before the Great Opening....
The way China has integerated itself in the GlobalTecnhoFeudalArchitecture it is not that a cakewalk to just cut it off...besides as the second biggest economy after the US ...it is also critical for the GlobalGDPGrowth....
A DirectConflict between the US and China will essentially be end of the BluePlanet... so I doubt they might engage in such a fancy thing....rather it is going to be good old days of the ColdWar ProxyWars....
CannonFodder abudent in Africa, NAfrica, ME and South/SouthEastAsia... more so SouthAsia...
The US shall try to engage in multi Vectored Attack... Hybridwar a la HongKong.... encouraging the SouthEastAsians for SouthChinaSea and Japan for EastChinaSea...and of course, India in AfroAsian/AfroPakOcean and Himalyas...
At the same time pressure on BabyEatingChinese in the MediaSpace of the CombinedWest will go to higher gear.... same will be countred by the ChineseStateMedia...
CPEC will come under great pressure.... with India creating pressure in the North...GB the target.
XinJiang and Tibet will be far more in the news...with positioning of the new DalaiLama as key victory point by the both antagonists...
We, Paks, are just spectators really.... since, our net role in the GlobalTechnoFeudalHierachy is about zero.... we can just make Soundbites.... we might become CannonFodder once again...
I have tried to draw attention of Paks that the creation of geographic expression what the British named India was to Keep Pakistan Down and Keep China Out...
The coming months will prove it to be true yet again....
We, as Softstate, cann't even manage our internal affairs ...how are we going to play any part in the Reshaping of the GlobalOrder.? Squirrel???
The Greatest Game is in Town and Pakistan is The Heartland!
Just food for thought....of course, there are NO free lunches.... by just equipping PAF and PNS with the latest Chinese hardware China changes the equation without loosing a single Chinese life!
When this Pandemic, man-made or Nature's Fury, is over.... we must prepare ourselves for something Ugly...if the US and China don't agree to Shape the World in their CombinedImage!
That goes on to show our net place in the GrandScheme of Things!
And for Indians.... well, the CombinedWest has become smarter overtime.... and the pressure of RealEconomy on the common Westerns is having a deeper rethinking about the valuation of the good Indians as well.... there is only so much that Whites can take...
Afterall, the ModernWorld is the Creation of the Whiteman!
We can deny it...accept it..ignore it... or learn from it.... or just become Squirrel!
Pakistan has to make a few FundamentalChoices soon... CriminalEnterprise or PakState/220mlnPaks?
Let us be prepared for being CannonFodder...just in case!
Or
ThirdActor?
Mangus
P.S. Just to avoid length....the recent OilPumpingWar and how it ended in fizzle is left out...too much detail.
