Lt. Gen (R) Tariq Khan speaks

[FuturePAF]

The remaining 70% of the manpower is hired from civil service and the general population and provides more continuity.

I have never bought on to the hype created by internet fans of ISI being 1, 2 or 3 or any other rank. It's just a manpower intensive outfit which isn't omnipotent or omnipresent. It has its share of goofs, idiots and intelligent personnel. It has more than its share of failures and those too spectacular ones, along with victories of strategic nature. So mixed bag, nothing out of this world.

Any indication that the past year’s events make civilians less inclined / weary to join or support/assist, locally or overseas? Some people may have feelings of disenfranchisement or disenchantment which may limit the pool of civilian talent.

It a trend in the US military, so I wonder if the past year’s event have create a similar recruiting climate. Sure the numbers will be there, but will they get the best possible talent. This at a time the Indian diaspora is stepping up their influence globally, the Pakistani diaspora may want feel they should be stepping back, burnout out watching this drama.

You can just look at the idealism in America with JFK and then the effect his assassination/removal from the political scene had on the generation, that wanted to serve the nation and work within the system.

IK is the Pakistani equivalent of Kennedy. At the very least the American system has elements of predictability, fixed election dates for example, to motivate the young to strive again. Many may not want to serve if they feel they will be cast aside once they give it there all, and aren’t useful anymore.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Any indication that the past year’s events make civilians less inclined / weary to join or support/assist, locally or overseas? Some people may have feelings of disenfranchisement or disenchantment which may limit the pool of civilian talent.

It a trend in the US military, so I wonder if the past year’s event have create a similar recruiting climate. Sure the numbers will be there, but will they get the best possible talent. This at a time the Indian diaspora is stepping up if influence, the Pakistani diaspora may want feel they should he stepping back.

Let me give you the possible consequence of the past 13 months. By crushing the aspirations of pakistans growing middle class establishment has chosen it's side. 90 percent of the officers end up retiring as middle class citizens with the future of their children in this same country. Unlike the generals they don't have the luxury to settle themselves and their kids abroad.

And no you won't get someone like General Tariq or Haroon promoted to COAS. This didn't happen in the last 25 years and it sure as hell won't happen now. PDM has Establishment by the balls and will appoint the Next COAS of their own choosing and there will be many like Asim Muneer ready to sell their souls. And this time they have gone after both serving and retired army officers and their families. Just think of the implications of all this and consider the possibilities and you can see whereI am going.

 

[FuturePAF]

Let me give you the possible consequence of the past 13 months. By crushing the aspirations of pakistans growing middle class establishment has chosen it's side. 90 percent of the officers end up retiring as middle class citizens with the future of their children in this same country. Unlike the generals they don't have the luxury to settle themselves and their kids abroad.

And no you won't get someone like General Tariq or Haroon promoted to COAS. This didn't happen in the last 25 years and it sure as hell won't happen now. PDM has Establishment by the balls and will appoint the Next COAS of their own choosing and there will be many like Asim Muneer ready to sell their souls. And this time they have gone after both serving and retired army officers and their families. Just think of the implications of all this and consider the possibilities and you can see what I am going.

Them as well, but I meant the civilians. I think more and more civilians will try to stay clear of any involvement. Look at the break down of elements of American society after the Kennedy assassination, after the idealism was built up under him; “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country”.

 

[nahtanbob]

For those who have not read "Pakistan - A Hard Country" by Anatol Lieven, I highly encourage you all to do. In the book he argues that our clan/biradri/tribal systems trumps our nationalism as a nation. Meaning that the lowest common denominator is not the country, rather the giraeen next to us and his/her equivalent in other ethnicities that we have.

India has more divisions than Pakistan. It is a lot better in certain aspects

 

[nahtanbob]

Any indication that the past year’s events make civilians less inclined / weary to join or support/assist, locally or overseas? Some people may have feelings of disenfranchisement or disenchantment which may limit the pool of civilian talent.

It a trend in the US military, so I wonder if the past year’s event have create a similar recruiting climate. Sure the numbers will be there, but will they get the best possible talent. This at a time the Indian diaspora is stepping up their influence globally, the Pakistani diaspora may want feel they should be stepping back, burnout out watching this drama.

You can just look at the idealism in America with JFK and then the effect his assassination/removal from the political scene had on the generation, that wanted to serve the nation and work within the system.

IK is the Pakistani equivalent of Kennedy. At the very least the American system has elements of predictability, fixed election dates for example, to motivate the young to strive again. Many may not want to serve if they feel they will be cast aside once they give it there all, and aren’t useful anymore.

Imran Khan or no - the Pakistani economy is in trouble. Nothing changes it

Pakistani elite has tried all tricks in the bag to compete with India and enrich themselves. You have exhausted the goodwill & coffers from the West, Gulf Arabs and China. All the adventures in Afghanistan have little to show for.

the only long term choice is development of human resources which takes decades for results to show up

 

[The Accountant]

It does not matter, they came through the vote of the public at that time. Once in office, the public needs to find whatever means to hold them accountable.


That video is at least 2-3 years old and the officer in question was arrested and fired from his police job but it had nothing to do with any of the recent political issues. As I have said before, sift through the propaganda because it is being done by both sides to mislead and generate sympathy for own and hate for the other side.

There was another one showing "torture of PTI workers" at the hands of the army when in reality it is a video of the SSG cadres beating up trainees during Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape (SERE) training.

This is not to say our police and Rangers have not roughed up people, but rape and "rapes" are serious claims.

The video of multiple bullet injuries snd multiple dead shot in the head shiwed on twitter were also propaganda ?

 

[FuturePAF]

Imran Khan or no - the Pakistani economy is in trouble. Nothing changes it

Pakistani elite has tried all tricks in the bag to compete with India and enrich themselves. You have exhausted the goodwill & coffers from the West, Gulf Arabs and China. All the adventures in Afghanistan have little to show for.

the only long term choice is development of human resources which takes decades for results to show up

And that requires attracting the most talented people to maximize development. Talent that is looking at the exits, with those already abroad incredibly reluctant to send funds or give back their expertise. There is ample human capital developed over generations, domestically and abroad that can jumpstart the economy with the right framework. Many countries have done it, from worse positions, but equally countries with all the advantages (US in the 60s, for example) have failed to reach their own full potential (as envisioned in LBJ’s great society program), with the disillusionment in the wake of events like the Kennedy assassination. Countries can go both ways, stealing victory from the jaws of defeat or defeat from the jaws of victory, depending on the relationship between the people and the elite.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661470499694673920

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Them as well, but I meant the civilians. I think more and more civilians will try to stay clear of any involvement. Look at the break down of elements of American society after the Kennedy assassination, after the idealism was built up under him; “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country”.

Awaam is gonna get more involved than ever before but you would see a more militant middle class more akin like MQM than PTI. Awaam is not speaking out due to the tyranny that the state is showing. State will fight amongst itself soon enough and it will give space to the Middle class to mobilize again.

 

[blain2]

The video of multiple bullet injuries snd multiple dead shot in the head shiwed on twitter were also propaganda ?

What has that got to do with the misleading rumors of rapes?

 

[FuturePAF]

Awaam is gonna get more involved than ever before but you would see a more militant middle class more akin like MQM than PTI. Awaam is not speaking out due to the tyranny that the state is showing. State will fight amongst itself soon enough and it will give space to the Middle class to mobilize again.

I disagree, people will get cynical and transactional. PTI is on the way to be crushed and the old order is about to be restored, not that the oligarchy ever left.

I watched the following video; I have been watching his videos for some time to see all sides of the problem, and his arguments seem to hold water.

The majority of PTI MNA are “lotas”. People with their own constituents, where the only real democracy exists in Pakistan, and where people stick with the person that gives them the best deal from the system. These career politicians will join whomever is the next leader, and IK will just become a chapter in Pakistan history books.

As I said in an earlier post, in America, the idealistic baby boomers of the 60’s became the money oriented people of the 80s. Equally after the events of 1989 in Tinanamen, China, the people accepted a new social contract. The Chinese people accepted that they will not speak politically if the government improves their standard of living. By and large, equally the same in the US, and come to think of it the same in India, with the BJP.

The only unifying demand left for the Pakistani people will be to ask now is for an improvement of their standard of living, because the facade has gone fallen away.

The diaspora will stop thinking with their hearts, and will only think with their heads. Dollars and cents. That is what they have been told they are, and these events have allowed them to step back and realize that is the only role they will be allowed to play. So be it.

I was going to write a whole article that for the sake of Pakistan, the best option, IMHO, would be to let IK run for the presidency and let the MNAs side with whomever they may, allowing democracy to play out, while restoring some of the people’s confidence in the state, So that the nation can focus on the economic problems, water crisis, lack of HDI, effects of the floods, etc. attract investment from the diaspora and others, … but whats the point.

And before anyone says this is a crybaby feeling of disengagement because “our” party isn’t winning, should realize that more people were engaged and offered to be brought in to contribute, and have a role. Now the system has cast aside many of the people, and the people are going to follow suite in response.

 

[blain2]

India has more divisions than Pakistan. It is a lot better in certain aspects

Each country is different. Pakistan's fault lines are different than India's. Where Pakistan has 6 or so major ethnicities and India over 50, it took only 3 for Yugoslavia to not work well and split up (not suggesting the same for either Pakistan or India). So the issue is not how many or how few, its the internal dynamic within and between the people from different ethnicities, clans, tribes etc. etc.

 

[blain2]

I disagree, people will get cynical and transactional. PTI is on the way to be crushed and the old order is about to be restored, not that the oligarchy ever left.

I watched the following video; I have been watching his videos for some time to see all sides of the problem, and his arguments seem to hold water.

The majority of PTI MNA are “lotas”. People with their own constituents, where the only real democracy exists in Pakistan, and where people stick with the person that gives them the best deal from the system. These career politicians will join whomever is the next leader, and IK will just become a chapter in Pakistan history books.

As I said in an earlier post, in America, the idealistic baby boomers of the 60’s became the money oriented people of the 80s. Equally after the events of 1989 in Tinanamen, China, the people accepted a new social contract. The Chinese people accepted that they will not speak politically if the government improves their standard of living. By and large, equally the same in the US, and come to think of it the same in India, with the BJP.

The only struggle the Pakistani people will ask now demand is an improvement of their standard of living.

The diaspora will stop thinking with their hearts, and will only think with their heads. Dollars and cents. That is what they have been told they are, and these events have allowed them to step back and realize that is the only role they will be allowed to play. So be it.

I was going to write a whole article that for the sake of Pakistan, the best option, IMHO, would be to let IK run for the presidency and let the MNAs side with whomever they may, allowing democracy to play out, while restoring some of the people’s confidence in the state, So that the nation can focus on the economic problems, water crisis, lack of HDI, effects of the floods, etc. attract investment from the diaspora and others, … but what the point.

Good post, but listen, Pakistani diaspora will NEVER stop thinking about the country with their hearts.

You all should keep in mind that a large proportion of what was called the "silent majority" supported Musharraf as well. That too came to pass and many people were sad, dejected with the unrealized potential. Eventually through the ups and downs, IK came along. So there is ALWAYS hope for betterment. If BD/India/SL can move ahead with less than perfect democracies, so can Pakistan. If China, Burma can make headway being totalitarian or hybrid, so can Pakistan.

So for anyone who thinks either Imran Khan or the next "amazing" leader will fix Pakistan entirely, that is a fallacy. Pakistan's example is like that of a pre-pubescent with bad skin/acne. Only over time will the skin clear off all the acne etc.

Second, as I have mentioned before, in politics nothing is ever forever. If IK is persona non-grata currently in the corridors of power, that cannot stay this way forever. At this time, he may have to take a step back and evaluate the landscape. The establishment too is not like Iraq's Saddam Hussain who rules for 30 years and his likes and dislikes don't change. If you all recall, it was Gen Bajwa who reconciled with NS et-al despite being publicly attacked by the latter and his daughter. Similarly, Asim Munir or one of his successors may think that bringing IK back into the fold makes sense.

This is not to suggest that I am good with a general making such calls when it is not his job, but I am reflecting the reality of our hybrid system of governance.

 

[FuturePAF]

Good post, but listen, Pakistani diaspora will NEVER stop thinking about the country with their hearts.

You all should keep in mind that a large proportion of what was called the "silent majority" supported Musharraf as well. That too came to pass and many people were sad, dejected with the unrealized potential. Eventually through the ups and downs, IK came along. So there is ALWAYS hope for betterment. If BD/India/SL can move ahead with less than perfect democracies, so can Pakistan. If China, Burma can make headway being totalitarian or hybrid, so can Pakistan.

So for anyone who thinks either Imran Khan or the next "amazing" leader will fix Pakistan entirely, that is a fallacy. Pakistan's example is like that of a pre-pubescent with bad skin/acne. Only over time will the skin clear off all the acne etc.

Second, as I have mentioned before, in politics nothing is ever forever. If IK is persona non-grata currently in the corridors of power, that cannot stay this way forever. At this time, he may have to take a step back and evaluate the landscape. The establishment too is not like Iraq's Saddam Hussain who rules for 30 years and his likes and dislikes don't change. If you all recall, it was Gen Bajwa who reconciled with NS et-al despite being publicly attacked by the latter and his daughter. Similarly, Asim Munir or one of his successors may think that bringing IK back into the fold makes sense.

This is not to suggest that I am good with a general making such calls when it is not his job, but I am reflecting the reality of our hybrid system of governance.

The current generation will re-engage, with time, sure. It’s a matter of the heart.

But their children, especially those that grew up abroad will more than likely not, if they can help it. The children of the diaspora or even those that have the means to leave will double down on keeping their money, and career trajectories abroad.

Will they even send remittances, once their parents pass away? Doubtful, as the cost of living increases abroad, and the rest of the world is raising the professionalism of its governance and investment climate. Investment funding is getting scare, so keeping money in they’re adopted countries make more financial sense.

This population can’t be taken for granted. Even those living in Pakistan can invest abroad, so it’s not just the diaspora. Investing in the Textile industry of Bangladesh or in businesses in Dubai, up to now, will only accelerate. I’m sure Saudis will try to attract FDI into NEOM, so the diaspora there will also have more reliable options. Can you blame the diaspora for looking elsewhere?

No one thinks Pakistan has rule of law, why do people think business and property contracts will be honored in Pakistan?

All this when Pakistan needs to raise $74 a billion to pay back loans over the next 3 years. Will the most capable or well off stay to pay this debt or increasing flee abroad like Greeks, after the 2008 crisis, knowing at least a decade of austerity will be imposed with no upside/reforms.

 

[Olympus81]

If you all recall, it was Gen Bajwa who reconciled with NS et-al despite being publicly attacked by the latter and his daughter. Similarly, Asim Munir or one of his successors may think that bringing IK back into the fold makes sense.

Don’t you think this is what exactly what’s wrong. The ability of the good old General to be the king maker.

I would argue IK might be irrelevant, but the seeds of an idea that the Generals influence is inversely proportional to Pakistan’s betterment is where the crux is.

 

[blain2]

Don’t you think this is what exactly what’s wrong. The ability of the good old General to be the king maker.

I would argue IK might be irrelevant, but the seeds of an idea that the Generals influence is inversely proportional to Pakistan’s betterment is where the crux is.

"This is not to suggest that I am good with a general making such calls when it is not his job, but I am reflecting the reality of our hybrid system of governance."