Areesh
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Sabse pehle tujhko he bataoonga. dont worry.
Nahi honai wala. Yeh bachodiya awam ko chai bananai k liye hoti hain
Reality main karnai k liye nahi
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Sabse pehle tujhko he bataoonga. dont worry.
Nahi honai wala. Yeh bachodiya awam ko chai bananai k liye hoti hain
Reality main karnai k liye nahi
lekin agar hua, toh sabse pehle tujhe he bathaonga
Okay
Waisai Gujarat k 56 inch walai k under to kabhi nahi hoga.
Woh UP ki fanta bottle ko try karo. Shaid woh try kar lai
chalo, tumne agree toh kiya, kisi doosre ke neeche ho sakta hai. i will take this as a win and bow out of this discussion.
Isnt that the 1000 crore questionWhat is the nuclear threshold?
Nope, the US knew our militaries better than many within our countries, they know the Indian and Pakistani conventional capabilities, nukes, Airpower and Naval, they keep a sharp eye on everything, and the US for last many years has been lobbied by Indians and also poor Judgements by Pakistani' Military/Political Leadership that keep those F-16's away from Pakistan, but geopolitics change, leadership changes, and mood of countries also change, US saw this new unpredictable/Hostile/Fascists India and its ability to push the region on the brink of war, and it doesn't go well with those in Pentagon/Decision-makers, why you think that American's did nothing when Pakistan used F-16? Why do you think America didn't say a word about F-16's being used against India? why do you think Americans in Pakistan celebrated at PAF bases? If America thinks that India has tilted the power balance way too much in its favor then the US will find a way/excuse to transfer some good stuff to Pakistan, whether Pakistan has fund's or not, for the US a stable/Allied Pakistan is important for their own presence in Afghanistan/region to keep an eye on Rising China.
You have explained well Indian doctrine vis a vis Pakistan and i have told you that what Pakistan is thinking regarding Indian doctrine. There is another thread posted by Panzerkiel regarding nuclear deterence it explains in depth how Pakistan is reading Indian doctrine and preparing for it conventionally and non conventionally. I'd suggest to read that thread. Like always, we can agree to disagree on respective doctrines of India and Pakistan.Agreed. But herein lies the problem.
Till date, the nuclear pistol arguement has worked beautifully for Pakistan. The escalation matrix has now been moved up. And this has happened in swipes at the edges, not a deep cut.
For e.g, again without getting into whether true or false and effective or not.
a. Cross border land strike.
Here, India claims to have crossed the line of control with a limited force. Again remember I am not getting into the effectiveness or reality of what happened. This messaging of openly admitting was impossible earlier. The PA could now claim, no such thing happened and everything calmed down. Both sides tom tomed their story line. But, here there was a nudge up the escalation matrix.
Most knowledgeable people will admit these small cross border skirmishes keep happening all the time. The difference was in the scale and admission.
b. Air space strike
Here, India claims to have crossed the LoC and struck across the IB. Pakistan responded the next day. Again, whether it hit target, did not hit target, did anybody die is immaterial. The escalation happened by India. The claims were made by India. Claims were made by Pakistan. Here again, there was a nudge up the escalation matrix.
c. 370.
Abrogation of article 370, basically says we don't care now for what anyone thinks or what the UN wants. This was the deep strike according to me, not the above 2. But, because it happened on this side of the LoC, nothing could be done. If the PA had mobilised for war here, it would have been a sign of intent. Or had the PA made aggressive maneouvering, on the ground not diplomatically, things would have meant something.
The above have already happened. Now let us get out of the Kashmir region. Limited armoured thrust by India into the Rajasthan desert area. India occupies barren desert and takes over few villages and stops the push and consolidates. Will this trigger a nuclear response? India pushes across the Shakargarh bulge and stops. Will this elicit a response? The answers according the Indian strategic planners is no.
Again, I say this. There is a change in the mindset of strategic planners in India. And this has nothing to do with BJP/Congress. If you read Pax Indica by Shashi Tharoor this is more evident. While he does not find faults with Indian intervention in the neighborhood, he makes a case for forwarding multi-alignment.
And I have made this argument before in another forum. India policy makers of today are post 1990 people. They have not seen or experienced the pre liberalization era. They are not chained by the non alignment policies of before. The top bureaucrats of today came in through the Punjab, Assam and Kashmir insurgency period. They have seen the might of the Indian forces in crushing these. The mid level bureaucrats have seen the opportunities of globalization and an aggressive policy in fighting for space. Across all spectrum of life in India.
These crop of policy makers are not going to be driven by idealism but hard facts. And herein lies the conundrum. In this calculation, the mad man is no longer Pakistani Army. PA is a calculating sane man, realising its own drawbacks and making calculating moves.
The folly and mistake you make, is to assume we want Pakistan to stop existing. Better the PA deal with the mad mullahs to your west, than our army. Pakistan is our buffer from the nutjobs of the Middle East. More specically the PA.
Why is that the immediate conclusion?Yes, geopolitics changes but not as easily or quickly as you think. The entrance of China into the equation has changed everything. It's now China that provides the balance of power for Pakistan, not the US. Accordingly, the US has made its shift entirely to India. Pakistan, in turn, is squarely in China's camp. CPEC is the high point of this partnership. So I'm surprised that you would mention that Pakistan would allow the US to use Afghanistan to spy on China. Especially when Pakistan is eager for the US to exit Afghanistan as well.
This "Hostile/Fascists India" you mention is only the figment of Pakistan. Nothing more. Modi has been in power for a while now and relations between India and the US are closer than ever. Indo-US relations are not affected by domestic politics.
On the points of why the US was quiet about F-16 being used in Balakot and Americans celebrating at PAF bases (whatever that means) are just superficialities and don't indicate anything.
Regardless, you haven't addressed why Pakistan has not received any F-16s, even older models. Even I admit PAF getting a handful of used F-16s won't change the balance of power much, so why is the US dragging its feet on the issue?
so why is the US dragging its feet on the issue?
Why is that the immediate conclusion?
I would present a counter argument to your post. I would say the US did not say anything for 2 reasons. At all times on 27/02 the 16s were within Pak air space and therefore technically on defensive duties. In defence anh armament can be used by the procuring nation. Sevondly the US got the bezt possible present handed to it on a golden platter in the form of 2 Indian platforms going down to the C5. Air warfare is a business to the US defence conglomerate. It does not matter who goes down as long as the US armaments secure a limited victory. This was a huge victory for the C5 so the US was externally quiet but internally chuffed to bits.Nope, the US knew our militaries better than many within our countries, they know the Indian and Pakistani conventional capabilities, nukes, Airpower and Naval, they keep a sharp eye on everything, and the US for last many years has been lobbied by Indians and also poor Judgements by Pakistani' Military/Political Leadership that keep those F-16's away from Pakistan, but geopolitics change, leadership changes, and mood of countries also change, US saw this new unpredictable/Hostile/Fascists India and its ability to push the region on the brink of war, and it doesn't go well with those in Pentagon/Decision-makers, why you think that American's did nothing when Pakistan used F-16? Why do you think America didn't say a word about F-16's being used against India? why do you think Americans in Pakistan celebrated at PAF bases? If America thinks that India has tilted the power balance way too much in its favor then the US will find a way/excuse to transfer some good stuff to Pakistan, whether Pakistan has fund's or not, for the US a stable/Allied Pakistan is important for their own presence in Afghanistan/region to keep an eye on Rising China.
I would present a counter argument to your post. I would say the US did not say anything for 2 reasons. At all times on 27/02 the 16s were within Pak air space and therefore technically on defensive duties. In defence anh armament can be used by the procuring nation. Sevondly the US got the bezt possible present handed to it on a golden platter in the form of 2 Indian platforms going down to the C5. Air warfare is a business to the US defence conglomerate. It does not matter who goes down as long as the US armaments secure a limited victory. This was a huge victory for the C5 so the US was externally quiet but internally chuffed to bits.
A
The US may have known and I agree that it knew what was going on. I would not even be surprised if the Dhotis bleeted to the US about their punitive strike and got a tacit approval. The idea(and this remains my view point) was to just lob a couple of missiles into Pak territory and claim a moral victory for the Indian media to run with. With a few trees and a crow or two it would not logically have justified Pakistan to respond as their prior experience with the spineless polity of Pakistan led them to believe people will play the media game and indulge in rhetoric rather than respond. What the US did not expect was Pak response the severity and the extent of it and the IAF ineptness. The rest was just lapped up with due pats on the back for free advertisements.I would say both of your points are valid, PAF just handed the US the biggest Marketing Pitch for AIM-9's and F-16's, while remaining within its air space PAF don't let Indians crying their hearts out to Congress about the F-16's being used against them in an aggressive way. One thing strongly believe that US did know what's going on between both India and Pakistan from 26th failed balakot strike to all the way to Abinundons captured, US satellites pretty much have picked up movements along the International border, especially when and if India was serious about Missile strikes, and Pakistan sends the message to India that if they hit 3, we will hit 6.
The US may have known and I agree that it knew what was going on. I would not even be surprised if the Dhotis bleeted to the US about their punitive strike and got a tacit approval.