Very interesting question. In fact in the question you ask lies the future of Pakistan. Read this thread.
BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) kicks off Pakistan has to make simple choice.
What do we want looking over the horizon?
1. Look East -
Towards SAARC and join India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka etc and aim for some type of economic union with open borders much like European Community.
2. Look West -
Towards Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia and move forward with China providing the economic impetus towards some sort of Central Asia economic block.
For me it is no brainer. I want us to go for No.2 without any reservations. I would make the "
look West" the policy and work all out
relentlessly towards this goal over 30 year timescale. This policy would require some major changes. Reaching long term objectives requires patience and sacrifice. Ask the Chinese.
First I would like us to accomodate Afghanistan. We are much larger then Afghanistan. We have to treat it as our smaller brother. We must give all Afghan refugees Pak citizenship. The idea is to weld Afghanistan socially, culturally and economically to us.
Second we must focus on western half of Pakistan and accomodate whatever greivances people have there. With the help of Chinese we must develop CPEC at the earliest. We can get the eastern route going very soon but with additional effort we must build up the western route through K-Pk and Balochistan which would also link in with Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Although we can bypass Afghanistan but if we link in Afghanistan we can really take off with this project. The thing is this entire region is blighted with old rivalries. However so was UK, France, Germany in Europe that they killed each other in 10 of millions and look at them today. USA and it's huge economic power provided the umbrella under which this could be done. I believe China can do the same in this region as it's economy goes from strength to strength.
Here are some interesting facts. In history Pakistan has been for long periods connected to and part of Central Asia. In fact for many centuries Pakistan was a satrapy of Persia. Of course at other times we were part of eastern based empires. What I am saying is we have a choice today. I want us to think big and look high over the petty politics. Below 490 BC click to enlarge.
In the Map above of Persian Achaemenid Empire the satrapies in modern Pakistan are listed as following:-
Sindh - Hindush ( India)
Balochistan - Gedrosia
K-Pk - Arachosia/Gandhara
Punjab - Sattagydia
You can see how modern
Iran,
Afghanistan ( Bactria )
Uzbekistan ( Sogdiane )
Turkmenistan ( Khormasia)
Kazakistan ( Amyrgoi) and
Pakistan ( Gedrosia/Hindush/Arachosia/Gandhara ) were all united under one rule. Also Buddhism was introduced from
Gandhara in Pakistan along the
Silk route ( modern
KKH ) into
Chinese Sinkiang during the Kushan period and from there moved east into China proper.
In fact it was the British that cut us off from Central Asia. The Durand line effectively cut us off and with the Russians moving into Central Asia this region got it's own version of the Iron Curtain. Do not forget before that Islam had moved east from this area including the mighty Moguls. Therefore today if we have the vision we can over three decades move towards a Central Asian trading block. Now with Chinese economic engine we have historic oppurtunity to move forward and in doing so reconnect with our past history. Just look at some simple facts.
Distances ( Miles ) from Islamabad, PK to:-
Kabul, Afghan - 240
Dushanbe, Tajik - 420
Kashgar, China - 420
Tashkent, Uzbek - 550
Alma Aty, Kazak - 820
Ashgabat, Turkmen - 850
Tehran, Iran - 1,200
For comparison
Delhi, India - 450
Mumbai, India - 1,000
Kolkatta, India - 1,250
Dhaka, Bang; - 1,300
These distances are straight and of course it also depends which points you use as referance nevertheless I hope this gives idea of what we are talking about. What is apparent these areas are actually far closer then many places in India. We have been cut off from them by the British and Russians creating a Iron Curtian. Also no investment was made in last 200 years in any linkages with these areas. In addition there was no people to people contact or movement which had been there in the preceding centuries like for example.
Consider some effects of the divide created by Russians and British. In old days you could catch a train from Peshawar to Dhaka or Kolkatta some 1,300 miles away yet you could not catch a train 100 miles west to Kabul, 300 miles west to Dushanbe or 500 miles west to Tashkent never mind Tehran in Iran at 1,200 miles which is same as Kolkatta in India. This was effect of British building the railways to create linkages within their empire.
Now with Chinese help and CPEC we have historic oppurtunity to undo the divisions created by the Europeans. With Chinese setting up of AIIB ( Asian infrastructure investment bank ) and Chinese push to build Silk Roads to connect this part of the world so as to have access to the sea and as a way to trade with this region I think over 30 years we could have expressways and railways linking this area with all export trade moving south to either Cha Bahar in Iran or Gwadar/Karachi in Pakistan. As China turns into hyperpower that would create such economic imperatives and would creat synergies in this region for the betterment of all. We have to grab this chance and look beyond the stupid parochial politics of Pakistan. Pragmatism has to be the abiding policy.
Now there is another way we can go. What we can't do is have one leg here and another one there. The other way is turn our back on the west. In this scenario we look east and toward India. If this is what want and I think people here will not be surprised to find out that I am against this 'Look East' policy but if Pakistan wants this than I would ask what was 1947 all about?
We already had a ready made SAARC thanks to the British. So why did we disunite in 1947 and now want to unite? That is why SAARC annoys me. You don't break a cup on purpose and bust yourselve joining it again? Nevertheless if Pakistan in 2015 does want this than I would suggest we go for it with heart and soul. We should focus and go work relentlessly.
It begins with making peace with India. Open the border to trade and people. Sign a joint defence pact with India and set up a South Asian vesion of NATO. Pak, India, Bang;, Nepal, Sri Lanka armed forces unite under one 'SATO' like NATO. This would give us peace dividend and we could cut defence expenditure by 60% with saving going into education, poverty reduction and housing.
Ask for and get SAT help in controlling the wild western border. Over time integrate into the old British India working toward pulling in Burma/Myanmar in the log run as it was in British India.
Eitheir we have to have clear, concise plan and focuss. The worse thing is this ambigous one leg here and another leg there. Talk of ummah, be members of OIC, talk of Islamic brotherhood with Iran or Afghanistan, talk of friendship deeper then sea about China then also be a member of SAARC then also cry about Bangladesh. In reality have nothing. Go for one 100% ....
That is what we have to decide. In past history we have been at diffeant times connected to eithier the west or east. Once we decide in principle it is imperative that we go for it 100% ...
West or
East we have to decide ...
