No I don't see war in the near term either. This is all just hypotheticals.
I imagine satellite imagery would detect a buildup in advance of the invasion, its hard to hide something like that.
indeed, sats or on the ground spies would certainly pick up any major build up. however, bases cant just be picked up and moved during times of tension and possible war, surely base defences would be boosted but how much would that help? afterall within the first island chain basically all recent chinese weapons can reach you. of course the US can certainly take the losses, then in time, come back with much more forces. but the point here isnt whether the US military as a whole is more powerful. it most certainly is, and a long war certainly favors the US at this point. the point is to limited or eliminate the option of fast responses then quickly take ground, leaving the US with essentially two choices, accept the fact already established, or go into a very costly possibly nuclear war. just for the record, im not in favor or preemptively strike any american bases if war breaks out, you can plan for the logical, but sometimes emotions take over, especially if you are surprise attacked.
Those bases essentially mean immediately available assets. If China doesn't attack them, the US has immediate options while its carriers are sailing to the destination (lets assume the carriers are not near there.)
It is quite a pickle, which is why China's best generals are constantly working on the plans, and why our best American generals are trying to keep it that way.
yes, the bases allow immediate responses, hence exactly why the PLA wants those gone first, if possible. carriers based near the area also allow an immediate option. which is also why you see china put so much effort to improve tracking, surveillance(via space and drones) and asbm such as the df-21 and df-26.
the chinese assets are very much a work in progress, how well china can find those carriers in a vast ocean and strike at them is up for debate, but the very fact that df-21 and df-26 exists, presents a grave threat and may make the US admirals much more cautious than they would have been overwise, which of course benefits the PLA. these kinds of problems for thte Us only gets worst as the years go by.
Also I wouldn't just look at casualties when it comes to war weariness, but time as well. thousands of casualties in a relatively short period of 2 weeks to 1 month can potentially galvanize the US rather than wear it down. The story is what matters, not the death count. This sort of invasion is a rather easy story to craft, assuming Taiwan doesn't just fold.
If Taiwan immediately folds, than there was nothing the US could do anyways given the Taiwanese themselves weren't willing to fight, and that is what this is predicated on. This sapping of Taiwanese will is the best bet strategy.
no one assumes the ROC will just fold, they will attempt to hold out but they simply do not have the manpower, the fire power nor the space to do so for any significant amount of time, they may not even have the public support to fight a long war. i had previously said, how fast the PLA can take over taiwan is an open question, but they are getting more and more capable at achieving that faster and faster.
in addition i agree about the casualties, hence im not exactly in favor of any preemptive strike if it came down to it. nonetheless, i do see why other are in favor. the US may be galvanized, however the preemptive strike buys precious time in the probably most important moment of the fight, the actual invasion of taiwan island. once the islands is secured, the fight ahead for the US will be much harder than if they joined while taiwan was still in ROC hands. essentially the question for the chinese leadership if war breaks out is if they think the US will attempt to rush to taiwan's defence immediately. if they think the US won't hesitate then striking the bases and possibly the carrier as a first move is wise, otherwise, of course let the american politicians debate while they establish facts on the ground, its much easier for the US to accept the situation if they haven't actually gotten attacked.
Given that the majority of US forces would be naval and maritime, 10000 casualties would pretty much necessitate sinking a carrier as well
indeed, hence df-21 and df-26, and of course if the US hesitated and the chinese has taken over most if not all of the island then many, many thousands of men will be needed, casualties from such an operation will certainly be in tens of thousands at a minimuim. the chinese essentially wants to ask the americans, "how many lives are you willing to bet on this, because im willing to bet millions of mine", whoever wants it more will probably get it since no one wants a nuclear war. that said, china of course would like an intact taiwan than a burnt-to-a-crisp one.
As you noted, China can start the war alone, but it can't end it alone.
indeed, but do keep in mind that taiwan is THE most important issue for the PRC except the mainland itself. im of the opinion that it is the single area that china is willing to risk nuclear war over, save the mainland itself. so is the US willing to go that far? that question pretty much decides whether the US will get involved in any significant way. and also note that war doesnt happen in a vacuum, all these studies somehow assume china is invading just because, idk they're evil commies or something. if war happens its because taiwan has either declared independence or has started a nuclear program. well known red lines that the US will have certainly tried to prevent the ROC from crossing, and if they have done so they they've defied the US as well.
I should have specified, China selling its dollar reserves would be the least of either side's worries.
I don't believe the dollar would 'crash' (whatever that means in this context). Decline in value? possibly, maybe other countries or the US would just buy it back up. but there would be no financial apocalypse when people care more about creating weapons to fight the Chinese.
A purpose tends to do wonders for an economy.
agreed, the dollars reserves are not a weapon. people always assumes somehow that china can crash the US economy with its reserves, that's simply not how the modern world works. i bet unless an actual general war happens, China and the US will still at least maintain a facade of a functioning relationship. but the world market will certainly tank, simply at the news that US and Chinese forces may shoot at one another.
