Last Question : Attacking Iran

[Sugarcane]

your statement is evidence a military strike is futile.

That's my opinion, an Iranian member will be in better position to give statement which you can take as evidence ....

 

[lastofthepatriots]

You sure about that?? Your words discribing like you underestimating Iran military capability

If Iran had nukes, then it would act as a deterrent to any invasion.

your statement is evidence a military strike is futile.


Iran fought iraq for 8 years. i think thats pretty tough. How long has your longest war been? Your acquisition of nuclear weapons might suggest you're weaker than you look because if you were really strong why did you need nukes? I'm just hypothesizing btw. I know Pakistan is "strong",but i dunno if you guys have endurance(like Israel).

US is OP and has superiority in the air. They'll run a bombing campaign and that's about it.

 

[Pan-Islamic-Pakistan]

your statement is evidence a military strike is futile.


Iran fought iraq for 8 years. i think thats pretty tough. How long has your longest war been? Your acquisition of nuclear weapons might suggest you're weaker than you look because if you were really strong why did you need nukes? I'm just hypothesizing btw. I know Pakistan is "strong",but i dunno if you guys have endurance(like Israel).

Don’t derail thread with anti-Pakistan hate.

 

[R Wing]

Here are words by a very smart Israeli who served in their elite Air Force spec ops unit + as deputy head of the National Security Council:

"For the first time, there is direct military friction between Israel and Iran. There is now a higher probability than ever before of deterioration into an open war, which could take all kinds of different forms.”

Meaning what?

“Meaning that if Hezbollah enters the campaign, the destruction and devastation that will be inflicted on Tel Aviv and on other urban centers in Israel will be on a scale we’ve never before seen. And we have no way to stop it. We have a way to respond, but I don’t know who exactly it will console if Beirut is destroyed in the wake of Tel Aviv being destroyed. And if a war between Israel and Hezbollah is something we haven’t yet experienced, then a direct war between Israel and Iran is something I don’t want to imagine, though unfortunately, in the posts I held I did have to imagine it. The useful reference point is the Iran-Iraq war: Eight years and a million people killed.”

Isn’t Israel stronger than Iran?

“The question is how you measure strength. There’s a key term called ‘strategic depth,’ which the Iranians used not long ago, precisely in the context of this friction. A senior Iranian figure said that Israel should be careful, because it has no strategic depth. You really have to go to the basics and look at the geography, the demography and the history. Israel possesses military power, but Iran has tremendous geography, a population of 80 million and a history going back thousands of years. It’s a civilization. A onetime Canadian ambassador to Israel told me about a meeting that took place between a senior official from the Canadian Department of Global Affairs [its foreign ministry] and the Iranian ambassador to Canada. The Iranian ambassador enters, glances at the carpet in the room and says, ‘Iran is a Persian carpet that has been woven across 5,000 years; Canada is a speck of dust on that carpet.’

“There’s something megalomaniacal in the Iranians’ self-perception, and there’s a sense of historical deprivation. They feel that now, with the Arabs weak and the Middle East breaking apart, they have an opportunity to restore their standing. When they plan their strategic moves, their plans extend to Gibraltar. So it’s not by chance that until now, we were careful not to become entangled with Iran directly, and the smart policy is to go on being careful. I am concerned at what’s happening now, because I see a slackening in that regard.”

All in all, the Israeli public doesn’t appear to share your assessments. Many here feel that Israel is all-powerful and that nothing will happen.

“I disagree completely. If you remember, there was a day when Netanyahu announced a special security cabinet meeting [which turned out to be when he presented intelligence material seized in Iran].

In the hours that passed between that announcement and the declaration, whose import was, ‘Relax, it’s nothing,’ the amount of anxiety and the amount of rumors that circulated here reflected the healthy instinct of the public, which will tell you endlessly how good our situation is but understands very well that we are walking on thin ice.”

​

 

[Arminkh]

Here are words by a very smart Israeli who served in their elite Air Force spec ops unit + as deputy head of the National Security Council:

"For the first time, there is direct military friction between Israel and Iran. There is now a higher probability than ever before of deterioration into an open war, which could take all kinds of different forms.”

Meaning what?

“Meaning that if Hezbollah enters the campaign, the destruction and devastation that will be inflicted on Tel Aviv and on other urban centers in Israel will be on a scale we’ve never before seen. And we have no way to stop it. We have a way to respond, but I don’t know who exactly it will console if Beirut is destroyed in the wake of Tel Aviv being destroyed. And if a war between Israel and Hezbollah is something we haven’t yet experienced, then a direct war between Israel and Iran is something I don’t want to imagine, though unfortunately, in the posts I held I did have to imagine it. The useful reference point is the Iran-Iraq war: Eight years and a million people killed.”

Isn’t Israel stronger than Iran?

“The question is how you measure strength. There’s a key term called ‘strategic depth,’ which the Iranians used not long ago, precisely in the context of this friction. A senior Iranian figure said that Israel should be careful, because it has no strategic depth. You really have to go to the basics and look at the geography, the demography and the history. Israel possesses military power, but Iran has tremendous geography, a population of 80 million and a history going back thousands of years. It’s a civilization. A onetime Canadian ambassador to Israel told me about a meeting that took place between a senior official from the Canadian Department of Global Affairs [its foreign ministry] and the Iranian ambassador to Canada. The Iranian ambassador enters, glances at the carpet in the room and says, ‘Iran is a Persian carpet that has been woven across 5,000 years; Canada is a speck of dust on that carpet.’

“There’s something megalomaniacal in the Iranians’ self-perception, and there’s a sense of historical deprivation. They feel that now, with the Arabs weak and the Middle East breaking apart, they have an opportunity to restore their standing. When they plan their strategic moves, their plans extend to Gibraltar. So it’s not by chance that until now, we were careful not to become entangled with Iran directly, and the smart policy is to go on being careful. I am concerned at what’s happening now, because I see a slackening in that regard.”

All in all, the Israeli public doesn’t appear to share your assessments. Many here feel that Israel is all-powerful and that nothing will happen.

“I disagree completely. If you remember, there was a day when Netanyahu announced a special security cabinet meeting [which turned out to be when he presented intelligence material seized in Iran].

In the hours that passed between that announcement and the declaration, whose import was, ‘Relax, it’s nothing,’ the amount of anxiety and the amount of rumors that circulated here reflected the healthy instinct of the public, which will tell you endlessly how good our situation is but understands very well that we are walking on thin ice.”

​

It is a very interesting article that you brought up:

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east...oes-iran-really-want-to-nuke-israel-1.6244003

I suggest to everyone to read it.

 

[VEVAK]

"We judge that the introduction of nuclear weapons into the Near East would increase the dangers in an already dangerous situation and therefore not be in our interest. Israel has 12 surface-to-surface missiles delivered from France. It has set up a production line and plans by the end of 1970 to have a total force of 24–30, 10 of which are programmed for nuclear warheads." - Henry Kissinger

08-May 2018: The Trump administration withdraws from the Iran Nuclear Deal. This plays straight into the hands of anti-American hardliners in the Iranian government.

22-June 2017 UPDATE for the first time Iran has employed one of its indigenous missile designs under actual combat conditions - and the result appears to be not what was expected. This event represents one of the first times that parts of Iran's ballistic missile force usage can be observed by Western analysts. Whether this assessment can be applied to the bulk of Iran missile force remains unclear, however, perhaps some of Iran's missile capabilities with respect to weapon accuracy could be reassessed. Please see here.

While a furious effort is now underway (18-Aug 2015) by Israeli lobbying groups in the United States to scuttle the Iran deal - they are all operating on the premise that US-Israel retains the option to conduct a military attack on Iran to stop or delay an Iranian nuclear program. However, neither the ZOA, NOPAC, or Washington beltway Iran hawks - can tell anyone - what a US-Israeli attack on Iran would look like - or what outcome(s) it would produce.


Not one.

While they are free to oppose the Iran deal, one must ask the last question first; will US-Israeli military action (a war) stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon?

Iran has never been a legitimate threat to Israel's existence - as it is well known that Israel sits on a nuclear deterrent ‘Jericho ICBM force’ – which can hit any target in the Middle East (including Iran).

[Above] The 'Jericho' was started in the 1950s with assistance from Dassault.

Israeli survival has never (ever) depended on a “better” Iran nuclear deal.

Israel has ~ 100-600 nuclear weapons.

So those in the US Congress and elsewhere who oppose a negotiated deal are effectively either:

1. Totally ignorant.
2. Parroting the Israeli governments (a foreign entity) official policy of deliberate ambiguity regarding its nuclear weapons.
3. Forced to maintain a position that Iran is not a rational agent.

In all cases, this precludes these voices from being taking seriously.

Some historical contexts is warranted here. History tells us the question is not will (will) Iran retaliate for a US-Israeli attack - but simply - in what manner will Iran retaliate. The Iranians did not sit back and absorb Iraqi air strikes during the Iran-Iraq War. Iran went on the offensive within hours of the first Iraqi strikes on 22-Sept 1980, the IRIAF launched coordinated retaliatory strikes to hit Iraqi airfields near Baghdad and Basrah and includes the first (the first) successful attack on the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor on 30-Sept 1980 eight days later. This joint operation was followed eight (8) months later by Israeli jets on 06-Jun 1981. (During the first attack an Iranian RF-4E took real time photos of the reactor which were later shared with Israel as the American were supporting Iraq during the war. Iran and Israel cooperated in other areas during the war also.)

The Iranians did not target the main reactor because of radiation release concerns (prevailing winds blow east). This successful IRIAF deep-penetration strike on the Iraqi nuclear facility has been all but forgotten by Western analysts, historians, and defense press. Iran might be a lot of things - but irrational isn't one of them.

Iran has hundreds of Shahab-3 (Sejil-2) class medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) weapons, (never mind a dizzying array of other types) on mobile launchers. History instructs that mobile-missiles cannot be “taken out” by Tomahawks, cruise missile, air strikes, area-denial munitions, or Special Forces teams.



You can’t find the missile-launchers before the missiles are fired – as the high number of Iraqi SCUD launches throughout the 1991 Gulf War attests.


Iraq launched ~ 86 Scud missiles throughout the 1991 Gulf War. Serious allied attempts to find and stop Iraqi SCUD mobile-launches - would prove totally futile.

The American Patriot Missile System was widely reported (and shown) intercepting Iraqi Scud missiles over Israel during the 1991 Gulf War. Indeed, then US President George H.W Bush exalted the Patriot for this "achievement." An investigation after the war concluded that Patriot hit one (1) or - none - of the Iraqi Scud warheads. This includes a Scud that hit the barracks of a US Army detachment in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, on the night of 25-Feb, 1991. Seventeen (17) years after the war, Raytheon (builder of Patriot) literature continued to assert that Patriot missiles had destroyed Iraqi Scuds. No less than forty-two (42) Patriot missile rounds were fired at Iraqi Scuds during the war - for perhaps one (1) or zero (0) hits.

We all understand that information/disinformation control during wartime can be vital, but fraudulent industry assertions 17 years after the fact - illuminate a vastly different problem.

Raytheon has introduced PAC-3 upgrades to address the issues of 1991 while Iran has moved beyond Scud-class 'Ghauri' Mach 5 capability.

Israel-US possesses no real defense against an Iranian counter attack from hundreds of Iranian mobile-MRBM class weapons. Both the Israeli ‘Arrow’ anti-ballistic missile system the American Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system claim "successful tests" but remain unproven. Israels 'Arrow' system hit no Hezbollah rockets in 2006. ‘Iron Dome’ cannot deal with targets of nearly 1-ton traveling upwards of Mach 3, and no amount of USN Aegis SM-2/SM-3 destroyers in the Persian Gulf or Mediterranean can stop all the Shahab-3 (Sejil-2) rounds. Israel-US has tried to bolster 'Iron Dome' with Patriot interceptors - but its hopeless. No air/missile defense system is perfect. We think under actual combat conditions the probability of interception/destruction of in-flight Iranian mobile-MRBM by all US-Israeli missile defenses to be no greater than 30%. The speed of the Sejil-2 is Mach 13, while Shahab-3 is closer to Mach 7. Terminal reentry speeds are lower, but still high. Simply too many Iranian mobile-MRBMs will get though.




The exact nature of Iran's missile forces is not well understood - with a dizzying array of missile name, designation, and configuration changes. Iran's years of isolation make accurate appraisal difficult. Western military planners best assume robust Iranian capability out to at least ~ 2000 km (~ 1240 mi).







[Above/Below] Although these two systems are operated by the DPRK - this is what could be on the horizon in Iran if American and Israeli hawks continue their threats of attack. Mobile missile launchers have a proven capability (under actual combat conditions) to avoid detection until it is too late. They are effectively impossible to find and stop in time. Russia maintains a large modern mobile-ICBM force for this very reason.

This means land-based US-Israeli air power needs to be based out of reach of Iranian mobile ballistic missiles. This equates to at least ~ 2000 km (~ 1240 mi) away from Iran. Examine carefully the graphic below. Note the red and yellow zones. US/Israeli planners would do well to ponder this point. For it is pivotal.

Your mistaken and your making Israel far bigger than it is!!!!!!
Yes Israel has a strong lobby in the U.S. but so do U.S. Automobile industry, Pharmaceutical industry, Oil Industry, weapons industry,.....

Also Iran is geographically strategically located and has access to both the open seas threw the Persian Gulf where at least 1/4 of the worlds oil supply is supplied from & the Caspian Sea!

Also China new silk road will also pass through Iran which will be a vital ground shipping rout that's much faster than sea transport

Also in terms of Pipeline to India and China again Iran is vital! And with Pakistan that 40% of the world population!

Even if Israel didn't exist the U.S. would still be obsessed with Iran!

Not to mention Iran's own reserves of Oil, Gas, Gold, Copper,.....

Only a delusional person would think Iran wouldn't retaliate incase of an attack!!!!!!!!! The Iranian government will be overthrown by it's own people if they don't retaliate!! Hell even the Basij & IRGC will help overthrow any government that fails to respond!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The U.S. is not stupid they have conducted wargames and have sats and know exactly how many missile bases Iran has and they know exactly what type of mess they'll create if they attack Iran!!!!!!!!!
Iran is surrounded by U.S. puppet stats and you'd have to be delusional to think that Iran wouldn't go after every U.S. puppet leader in the region!!!!!!!!!!

U.S. is going to stick to covert actions and sanction like: Playing with Iran's currency, Reducing Iran's Oil export, conducting sabotage from pouring sault into a cities water & small reservoir to paying people to start protests to paying terrorist to enter Iran...., they'll do GPS spoofing to collide a Chinese ship into an Iranian Ship in a high traffic area, they'll conduct sabotage at offshore drilling sites, they'll mess with Iran's natural weather patterns, They'll assassinate people.....

The option available to the U.S. aren't simply War or No War!!!!!!!!!!!! And even their MAD Dog Matti's knows the War option isn't really an option for them! Because no ship will ever be safe in the Persian Gulf ever again & U.S. puppet leader wouldn't be safe in their own countries ever again!!!!!!! And US business interest across the region will never be safe again!!!!! And U.S. weapons industry will lose up to $100 Billion USD a year because the oil infrastructure of their consumers will be gone and all their money will have to go towards rebuilding them rather than buying weapons!!!!!!!
And as long as Iran's Missile program is active the U.S. is NOT going to risk going to war with Iran! And that's why Iran can NEVER give up it's Missile Program!!!
At the end of the day Iran can't even afford to exchange it's Missile Program with a fleet of 1000 armed F-35's handed over freely in exchange + removal of all sanction! let alone give them up over sanctions and other foolish U.S. actions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As for Iran and Israel neither country by themselves poses any kind of a conventional threat to the other!! Mainly because they are located 1000km from each other! We can throw conventional projectiles at each other but it's not going to really win anyone a war and at the end of the day both sides will claim victory!!!!!!

Yes Israel can Nuke Iran & only a moron would think Iran doesn't have a retaliatory option for that with 100's of missiles each dispersing 100's canisters of Bio or chemical weapons from high altitude over every major Israeli city!!!!!!!!!! Or Iran will just wait 6 month and nuke them back!!!!!!!! And if Iran is hit with WMD's then no one will blame Iran for responding in kind!!!!!!

 

[skyshadow]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news...eak-into-israeli-cybersecurity-site-1.6263629

Iranian Hackers Break Into Israeli Cybersecurity Site

دزدی که از دزد بدزده شاه دزده

 

[drmeson]

Separating warheads are very hard to intercept. I do not how many people have taken deep interest in false Saoodi claims of interceptions in Late 2017. PAC-2 has failed to intercept a single separating warhead of a modified SS-1D. What happens when faster and terminally guided MaRV comes down in higher numbers from Emad or Zolfaghar. Its relieving to know that Iranian missile improvement never ceased. While IRIAF got weaker and weaker with time, the missile power just enhanced to the level that it is now a proper deterrent. I hope IRGC has learnt lots from Yemen launches.