So I saw an interesting article about KPK 7% growth rate in 3 years time period
What do you guys think of it?
PESHAWAR: The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government’s goal to achieve seven per cent growth rate or above within three years does not even seem to be a remote possibility due to its incapacity, according to officials.
The government’s failure to achieve the goal appears to be imminent because it has not been able to undertake a single policy measure that could enable it to head towards the direction it set under its current annual development programme’s mission statement, according to official development planners.
“How will they achieve the seven per cent growth rate target? There should have been a comprehensive development policy that should provide the action plan to achieve the goals,” said a planner.
He said the seven per cent growth rate was just a figure like ‘any figure’ that did not necessarily mean much for the government to achieve.
However, the opening page of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s annual development programme for the current financial year, which contains the provincial government’s mission statement, does contain an actionable plan envisaged to achieve the targeted goal of achieving the growth rate.
“This growth will be led by private sector and supported by a lean and efficient public sector providing quality services, business-friendly compliance and regulatory regime and considerably reduced cost of doing business in the province,” contains one of the points mentioned to achieve the growth.
“The aim is to create internationally competitive firms and markets.”
Instead of heading to have a ‘lean and efficient public sector’, the provincial government is set to add more than 10,000 new jobs to its portfolio this fiscal, which would increase its staff strength to nearly 400,000.
Similarly, instead of taking measures to reduce the businessmen’s ‘cost of doing business’ in the province, the government has been looking from the sidelines as the costs have further jacked up further in the province due to reasons some of which were the results of its making and others were beyond its domain to control.
The over three months long road blockade of Nato supplies to and from Afghanistan in Peshawar by Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf’s workers caused losses to local businessmen, rendering thousands workers and self-employed entrepreneurs out of job.
Similarly, the surge in terrorist attacks in Peshawar has added to the businessmen’s overhead charges as industrialists and business houses have to spend money every month on personal security.
The cost of doing business is set to go further up as the provincial government has introduced an ordinance under which the police department has been empowered to declare any place (industry/shop/CNG station/petrol pump, etc) sensitive and vulnerable.
Upon being declared sensitive and vulnerable the owners/managements of these places would be required to undertake the recommended security measures, which might range from installing CCTV cameras to procure walkthrough gates, which would further jack up the businessmen’s costs.
However, official planners cite other reasons for the government’s likely inability to achieve the seven per cent growth rate target.
“The province, rather none of the provinces, has the mechanism to measure the annual growth rate,” said a senior planner.
He said the country lacked the mechanism to determine growth rate recorded separately by each of the four federating units.
The Economic Survey of Pakistan, an annual document prepared and released at the federal level, said the official, did not give a clear picture of economic performance at the provincial level because the document, he added, did not reflect the provinces’ economic data in detail.
Another official, holding important position, said if Khyber Pakhtunkhwa managed to measure its growth rate and the province’s growth rate turned out to be negative, it would not come as a surprise.
“You have to take your rate of inflation into account,” he said.
“As per the federal government’s figure, the rate of inflation is at eight per cent, so even if Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has four per cent growth rate, at present, its actual growth rate stands to be in the negative due to the higher inflation rate, which erodes actual growth.”
The official, however, said the province was not likely to have a growth rate in the plus domain.
He based his argument on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s deteriorating industrial base and the flight of capital it recorded during the past six to seven years due to militancy. An official of the planning and development department said the creation of economic activities depended on the construction activities in the provincial public sector.
As the government undertook construction projects in different parts of the province under its ADP, added the official, it created business opportunities for some 40 sub-industrial sectors associated with the construction sector.
“This year the pace of construction works has also been slow as compared to the previous years because the provincial government’s ADP has been fraught with slow execution due to its policy of bringing consultants from the private sector to monitor contractors’ work,” said the official.
He said the policy might benefit in the longer run, but it had disturbed the economic cycle this year.
So, if the province did not have the mechanism to measure its annual growth rate then why did the provincial government select to project the target of achieving seven per cent growth rate in its current ADP?
The answer to this question came from a senior economic wizard from the province.
“When you reflect a high-end target, you end up achieving something,” said the official, “so even if we do not get seven per cent growth in three years we might achieve three to five per cent at the end."
7pc growth rate target is overambitious - DAWN.COM
What do you guys think of it?
PESHAWAR: The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government’s goal to achieve seven per cent growth rate or above within three years does not even seem to be a remote possibility due to its incapacity, according to officials.
The government’s failure to achieve the goal appears to be imminent because it has not been able to undertake a single policy measure that could enable it to head towards the direction it set under its current annual development programme’s mission statement, according to official development planners.
“How will they achieve the seven per cent growth rate target? There should have been a comprehensive development policy that should provide the action plan to achieve the goals,” said a planner.
He said the seven per cent growth rate was just a figure like ‘any figure’ that did not necessarily mean much for the government to achieve.
However, the opening page of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s annual development programme for the current financial year, which contains the provincial government’s mission statement, does contain an actionable plan envisaged to achieve the targeted goal of achieving the growth rate.
“This growth will be led by private sector and supported by a lean and efficient public sector providing quality services, business-friendly compliance and regulatory regime and considerably reduced cost of doing business in the province,” contains one of the points mentioned to achieve the growth.
“The aim is to create internationally competitive firms and markets.”
Instead of heading to have a ‘lean and efficient public sector’, the provincial government is set to add more than 10,000 new jobs to its portfolio this fiscal, which would increase its staff strength to nearly 400,000.
Similarly, instead of taking measures to reduce the businessmen’s ‘cost of doing business’ in the province, the government has been looking from the sidelines as the costs have further jacked up further in the province due to reasons some of which were the results of its making and others were beyond its domain to control.
The over three months long road blockade of Nato supplies to and from Afghanistan in Peshawar by Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf’s workers caused losses to local businessmen, rendering thousands workers and self-employed entrepreneurs out of job.
Similarly, the surge in terrorist attacks in Peshawar has added to the businessmen’s overhead charges as industrialists and business houses have to spend money every month on personal security.
The cost of doing business is set to go further up as the provincial government has introduced an ordinance under which the police department has been empowered to declare any place (industry/shop/CNG station/petrol pump, etc) sensitive and vulnerable.
Upon being declared sensitive and vulnerable the owners/managements of these places would be required to undertake the recommended security measures, which might range from installing CCTV cameras to procure walkthrough gates, which would further jack up the businessmen’s costs.
However, official planners cite other reasons for the government’s likely inability to achieve the seven per cent growth rate target.
“The province, rather none of the provinces, has the mechanism to measure the annual growth rate,” said a senior planner.
He said the country lacked the mechanism to determine growth rate recorded separately by each of the four federating units.
The Economic Survey of Pakistan, an annual document prepared and released at the federal level, said the official, did not give a clear picture of economic performance at the provincial level because the document, he added, did not reflect the provinces’ economic data in detail.
Another official, holding important position, said if Khyber Pakhtunkhwa managed to measure its growth rate and the province’s growth rate turned out to be negative, it would not come as a surprise.
“You have to take your rate of inflation into account,” he said.
“As per the federal government’s figure, the rate of inflation is at eight per cent, so even if Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has four per cent growth rate, at present, its actual growth rate stands to be in the negative due to the higher inflation rate, which erodes actual growth.”
The official, however, said the province was not likely to have a growth rate in the plus domain.
He based his argument on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s deteriorating industrial base and the flight of capital it recorded during the past six to seven years due to militancy. An official of the planning and development department said the creation of economic activities depended on the construction activities in the provincial public sector.
As the government undertook construction projects in different parts of the province under its ADP, added the official, it created business opportunities for some 40 sub-industrial sectors associated with the construction sector.
“This year the pace of construction works has also been slow as compared to the previous years because the provincial government’s ADP has been fraught with slow execution due to its policy of bringing consultants from the private sector to monitor contractors’ work,” said the official.
He said the policy might benefit in the longer run, but it had disturbed the economic cycle this year.
So, if the province did not have the mechanism to measure its annual growth rate then why did the provincial government select to project the target of achieving seven per cent growth rate in its current ADP?
The answer to this question came from a senior economic wizard from the province.
“When you reflect a high-end target, you end up achieving something,” said the official, “so even if we do not get seven per cent growth in three years we might achieve three to five per cent at the end."
7pc growth rate target is overambitious - DAWN.COM
