India has informed Pakistan that it has not engaged in any sort of troop build-up along the frontier
In response to the ‘deadline’ set by India and the threats from Sonia Gandhi and Pranab Mukherjee, Pakistan had gone on a diplomatic counter-offensive, briefing world powers and countries in the region on the deteriorating relations with India and the steps taken by it to address Indian concerns. Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir met ambassadors of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — the US, Britain , China , France and Russia . He also met ambassadors of Italy , Japan , Germany , Saudi Arabia , Iran and Turkey soon after returning from France where he had gone for annual bilateral consultations. However, his most crucial meeting was with Indian High Commissioner Satyabrata Pal at the Foreign Office when he said that India should defuse tension.
Mr Pal was accompanied by his deputy Manpreet Vohra. The Indian side was categorically told that any ‘surgical strikes’ would be considered a declaration of war. India was urged to respond to Pakistan ’s proposal for joint investigation into the Mumbai attacks.
According to sources, the Indian diplomats looked sombre when they came out of the meeting.
As things stand, the possibility of war has been averted for now in which is being seen as a massive diplomatic victory for Pakistan.
This of course does not mean that we should let our guard down. In addition to the diplomatic counter-offensive, it was Pakistan Army’s seriousness that put India on the backfoot.
Once the realization set in that any further attempts to enter Pakistan Airspace will be punished severely by the PAF, the Indians had gone to plan B, with Mullen asking for a guarantee that PAF will not respond to Indian surgical strikes.
General Kiyani is said to have responded with showing Mullen a photograph of an IAF Mirage-2000 locked by Pakistan Air Forces’ F-16 taken on December 13th. ‘Next time, we’ll bring it down’, Mullen was told.
To make sure the message was loud and clear, Pakistan Air Force jets started patrolling the skies in hot mode and a red-alert was issued througout the country.
Failing to get that guarantee, the chance of an Indian strike was reduced significantly. For them it was never about a full war. A few surgical strikes on pre-agreed locations would have been enough to relieve some of the pressure the Indian Government faces domestically. Pakistan Army on the other hand made it clear that any action from India would be taken as a declaration of war, and the response would be swift and decisive.
India faces humiliation now on the diplomatic front having failed to achieve anything from this standoff.
In its attempts to isolate Pakistan by building what it saw as a definitive case, it is India that stands alone on the diplomatic front and is left with begging the Iranians and Chinese to put pressure on Pakistan.
We can now expect an intense and sustained terrorism campaign in Pakistani cities in an attempt to destabilize the country along ethnic / sectarian lines - New Delhi’s time-tested method.
On the diplomatic front India will be lobbying hard to have the ISI (and Pakistan Army) declared as terrorist organisations.
We can also not rule out another false flag attack in the next few weeks.
Pakistan needs to stay united.
Its not over yet.