Kargil’s military success was converted into political defeat: Musharraf

[Shan-e-ibrahim]

Depends on the available capability to mount offensives to damage military command communication and offensive infrastructure aimed to aid in the Pakistani effort in it's conquest in kargil.

Your political leadership was is no mood to extend the war theatre.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

@MilSpec @Providence

From May 1998 till Feb 1999 India was an UN OFFICIAL Rouge state having broken
the scared NPT regime which was an article of faith for the Clinton regime

Prior to that from 1995 till 1998 we had also snubbed the CTBT and then went on to conduct the
Nuclear tests

Are you aware of the US move to sanction India under CHAPTER 7 of UN Security Council

Find out how dangerous is chapter 7 ; It is like sanctions on Iraq after Gulf war one

That was the level of HOSTILITY between India and USA

So India undertook the 1999 Bus trip to calm down the nerves in Western capitals
ALL of whom were predicting a Nuclear war between India and Pakistan

So Kargil was a GOD SEND oppurtunity for India to project itself
AS A RESPONSIBLE Nuclear power

India just could not have escalated Immediately

India would have escalated only in July if Indian Army had not been able to
evict them ; but we succeeded in our efforts

However there are reports of local conflicts on the LOC other than the Kargil sector
with Pakistan blaming India for attacking its posts

Also remember that Pakistan was still a US ally

Pakistan had been offered a HUGE package for NOT conducting Nuclear tests
but they spurned the offer

India US relations were very bad all throughout the decade of Nineties

They Infact IMPROVED after our mature Handling of Kargil

 

[MastanKhan]

It takes a lot of statesmanship and guts and foresightedness to bank on a partial support and making a calculative move. What india pulled in '71 was pure miracle. The '99 indian govt probably was bogged down by international pressure and inexperience and the hangover of the bus diplomacy !

Hi,

That was no miracle---it was due to the intentional planning of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto---. But then Pakistanis have a habbitof sticking together ( like brotherhood of islam kind of thing 0---Banglades wanted separation----so be it---.

The primary goal had been achieved----that is the creation of a state for the muslims---. If east pakstan wanted a separate house---then let it be so---it was their right and choice---. The drama of the military action by Bhutto was a fraud.

 

[Providence]

Hi,

That was no miracle---it was due to the intentional planning of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto---. But then Pakistanis have a habbitof sticking together ( like brotherhood of islam kind of thing 0---Banglades wanted separation----so be it---.

The primary goal had been achieved----that is the creation of a state for the muslims---. If east pakstan wanted a separate house---then let it be so---it was their right and choice---. The drama of the military action by Bhutto was a fraud.

Well it was. Try not to think of it as a compliment to indians but more in terms of a "miraculous escape". It's ironical though that those miraculous escapes only turn pages of history !

Also, my perspective is more from the point of tumultuous diplomatic maneuvers going on in UN rather than pakistan or india per se.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

@MilSpec

The Real MIRACLE is India surviving the decade of Nineties
without COMPROMISING on NPT and Kashmir

This is what happened in the Nineties

After the fall of Soviet Union ; India was left without an ally

And US China relations were warming

US wanted to hurt India for our Cold War support to the Soviets

And the TOOLS to Hurt India were Kashmir and NPT

Our economy was also bad

China was VERY KEEN for India being compelled to sign the CTBT
at least ; IF NOT the NPT

So US and China aligned to nuetralise Indian Nuclear programme

And BOTH were keen on Chapter 7 Sanctions on India AFTER MAY 1998

Russia and FRANCE supported India in UNSC and vetoed the resolution

 

[Providence]

@MilSpec @Providence

From May 1998 till Feb 1999 India was an UN OFFICIAL Rouge state having broken
the scared NPT regime which was an article of faith for the Clinton regime

Prior to that from 1995 till 1998 we had also snubbed the CTBT and then went on to conduct the
Nuclear tests

Are you aware of the US move to sanction India under CHAPTER 7 of UN Security Council

Find out how dangerous is chapter 7 ; It is like sanctions on Iraq after Gulf war one

That was the level of HOSTILITY between India and USA

So India undertook the 1999 Bus trip to calm down the nerves in Western capitals
ALL of whom were predicting a Nuclear war between India and Pakistan

So Kargil was a GOD SEND oppurtunity for India to project itself
AS A RESPONSIBLE Nuclear power

India just could not have escalated Immediately

India would have escalated only in July if Indian Army had not been able to
evict them ; but we succeeded in our efforts

However there are reports of local conflicts on the LOC other than the Kargil sector
with Pakistan blaming India for attacking its posts

Also remember that Pakistan was still a US ally

Pakistan had been offered a HUGE package for NOT conducting Nuclear tests
but they spurned the offer

India US relations were very bad all throughout the decade of Nineties

They Infact IMPROVED after our mature Handling of Kargil

Mature nuclear power posturing can be done by probing the borders of it's definition as well. Just saying..
I am not too aware of the politics of the tests and sanctions etc so can't comment on them.

 

[toxic_pus]

Hi,

That was no miracle---it was due to the intentional planning of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto---. But then Pakistanis have a habbitof sticking together ( like brotherhood of islam kind of thing 0---Banglades wanted separation----so be it---.

The primary goal had been achieved----that is the creation of a state for the muslims---. If east pakstan wanted a separate house---then let it be so---it was their right and choice---. The drama of the military action by Bhutto was a fraud.

Can you please elaborate on this 'intentional planning'. Are you saying that West Pakistan always wanted East Pakistan to separate and everything was a ruse to lure India into doing the dirty job for Pakistan?

 

[Stephen Cohen]

Mature nuclear power posturing can be done by probing the borders

We did have localised clashes on the LOC both during and even after the Kargil war

That is Infantry ; artilerry and special forces were involved

But an invasion across the International border was Not possible given the state of
India's relations with USA and Pakistan still being an US ally

I am not too aware of the politics of the tests and sanctions etc so can't comment on them.

We in India had a tough time worrying about sanctions since our economy was
dependent on US capital flows

But Kargil and India's Peaceful and mature response helped a lot in removing the stigma
form us that of a being a rouge state

Pakistan was the bad guy after Kargil

 

[Guynextdoor2]

No kidding! After all, Kargil happened when Vajpayee was in Lahore for the peace drama!

It's quite literally like inviting your neighbor for dinner and catching him by the throat when he least expected it!

And they say 'Hindus are manipulative'

 

[Providence]

We did have localised clashes on the LOC both during and even after the Kargil war

That is Infantry ; artilerry and special forces were involved

Dude I wrote probing the borders of the definition of the phrase "mature nuclear power". I was not talking about literal borders LOL

 

[Stephen Cohen]

No kidding! After all, Kargil happened when Vajpayee was in Lahore for the peace drama!

It's quite literally like inviting your neighbor for dinner and catching him by the throat when he least expected it!

General Musharraf was AGAINST the Bus diplomacy

Infact he did NOT even meet Vajpayee

We should have ANTICIPATED Pakistan Army's actions given the fact that General Musharraf
was against the Bus diplomacy ; that is our mistake

 

[Providence]

General Musharraf was AGAINST the Bus diplomacy

Infact he did NOT even meet Vajpayee

We should have ANTICIPATED Pakistan Army's actions given the fact that General Musharraf
was against the Bus diplomacy ; that is our mistake

No that's called random kite flying. Rather it's the Intelligence which failed horribly.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

Dude I wrote probing the borders of the definition of the phrase "mature nuclear power"

Having violated the NPT and CTBT ; we HAD enough on our plate to deal with

There was NO scope for any misadventure

But US CIA gave the report that Both Pakistan and India were mating their
Nuclear warheads with Missiles and fighters in case
the conflict escalated

Since Pakistan had INITIATED the Kargil conflict ; the ONUS was on them to de escalate

Rather it's the Intelligence which failed horribly.

That is also true but we should have anticipated PA's moves
given the fact that Kargil sector was the ONLY UNMANNED sector on the LOC ; on both sides
because of the terrain

 

[Bang Galore]

You use the word "naive" and then post this?

Indian response especially from the BJP leadership of not crossing the LOC came from the overwhelming right wing baggage, along with lack of experience of being in power. And yes, India could have done what it needed to, it was in a better relative position than that of 1971 and "1965" Without counting the Su30K's, handful of Mig29's that you refer to still matched your entire fleet of f16's numbers and conveniently outgunned them back in the day, along with another 55 Mirages, 134 Jaguars, 200 Mig21, 55 Mig23 and about a 100 Mig27M's.
the lucky hit you got from the chinese manpad was because of a low level sortie and lack of intel. the only way 21's/23's/and 27 at their service ceilings are easy to hit with manpad if being countered by flying carpet mujhhideens...

So in all, my view is that Indian military and civilian leadership failed by not inflicting the maximum potential damage on Pakistan during the conflict, when Pakistan was clearly the aggressor. The broad level escalation wasn't that different from the massive escalation as a response for Brastacks and searchlight, when IA did not localize in akhnoor, they should not have done the same in Kargil. Pakistan was indeed successful or the first three months to ring in credible doubts about the nature of ingress in kargil, that is where India failed, it should have called the bluff from ay one and countered in Punjab and Rajhasthan.

You have to realise that the government had lost a vote of confidence in Parliament & was effectively in till the elections as a caretaker government. While that is no legal bar, a certain amount of restraint automatically follows. Having said that, a wider war was considered & was thought of as inevitable because of the difficulty the army had to vacate the positions taken by Pakistan. a decision to that effect was taken by the top leadership, only to be held back because Tololing point 5140(I think) was taken on that day itself. The Pakistani positions then started falling continuously after that and that pretty much ended the idea of a wider war.

Not sure whether this is commonly known here but Naik & Mishra, the back channel diplomats for Sharif & Vajpayee had almost decided at one point that Sharif was going to come to India (I believe it was on his way to China) and announce a withdrawal along with fresh negotiations on Kashmir thereby giving Pakistan an honourable exit and some reward for their efforts and would have allowed the Pakistanis to claim a victory of sorts. However as the positions on the ground changed and international diplomatic support to India increased, a decision was taken that there was no reason to indulge the Pakistanis & Sharif. The news of the proposed meeting was leaked to the media deliberately & then called off. India then pressed forward its military & diplomatic advantage and pretty much made sure that when the withdrawal came, neither Sharif nor Musharraf had even a fig leaf to cover their essential bits.

 

[MilSpec]

You have to realise that the government had lost a vote of confidence in Parliament & was effectively in till the elections as a caretaker government. While that is no legal bar, a certain amount of restraint automatically follows. Having said that, a wider war was considered & was thought of as inevitable because of the difficulty the army had to vacate the positions taken by Pakistan. a decision to that effect was taken by the top leadership, only to be held back because Tololing point 5140(I think) was taken on that day itself. The Pakistani positions then started falling continuously after that and that pretty much ended the idea of a wider war.

Not sure whether this is commonly known here but Naik & Mishra, the back channel diplomats for Sharif & Vajpayee had almost decided at one point that Sharif was going to come to India (I believe it was on his way to China) and announce a withdrawal along with fresh negotiations on Kashmir thereby giving Pakistan an honourable exit and some reward for their efforts and would have allowed the Pakistanis to claim a victory of sorts. However as the positions on the ground changed and international diplomatic support to India increased, a decision was taken that there was no reason to indulge the Pakistanis & Sharif. The news of the proposed meeting was leaked to the media deliberately & then called off. India then pressed forward its military & diplomatic advantage and pretty much made sure that when the withdrawal came, neither Sharif nor Musharraf had even a fig leaf to cover their essential bits.

Military leadership was caught off guard, and in the haste of recovering the positions along AGPL, it did not focus of the bigger picture.

Imagine 65, chips at hand were even fewer, and it could have easily played it along Akhnoor and areas effected, afterall it had in Rann Of kutch a few months earlier, but it didn't.

There are multiple ways of assessing the constrains on both the military and the political leadership, both decision makers wanted a swift, low cost, low intensity conflict. and that is what they did. Outcome was favorable to India, but there pakistan did not feel the sting which could have been the case if some hands were played differently. But then that's just my opinion