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Karbagh war: what will Turkey's reponse going to be?

Turkey's response will be nothing if any war starts in that region . The same is honest for Iran because there is a bigger player there and that's Mr Putin .
Don't be so sure. I think Azerbaijan doesn't need help in Karabakh war but if other powers get involved our position is clear. We are not doing these exercises for nothing. Caspian is Turkic lake.

The Puzzle of Regional Tensions: Media Perceptions of Turkish-Azerbaijani Joint Military Exercises
By: Zaur Shiriyev

(Source: today.az)

The militaries of Turkey and Azerbaijan carried out joint exercises between July 12 and 28, in the latter country’s capital of Baku and its autonomous exclave of Nakhchivan (Hurriyet Daily News, July 15). In the midst of the exercises (July 16–17), Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited Baku to discuss a range of issues at the heart of bilateral Turkish-Azerbaijani relations, and openly criticized the failure of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group to make any real progress in resolving the Karabakh conflict (Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, July 17). The central aim of Davutoglu’s visit was to discuss preparations for both the Turkey-Azerbaijan High Level Strategic Cooperation Council meetings (scheduled for November), and the planned visit to Azerbaijan by Turkish President Abdullah Gul in August.

Local media outlets have linked these latest Turkish-Azerbaijani military drills to a number of other significant regional developments. First of all, Armenian Prosecutor General Agvan Ovsepyan made territorial claims on Turkey a few days before the start of the joint Turkish-Azerbaijani exercise (Milliyet, July 13). Furthermore, as reported by Today’s Zaman on July 24, Russia is expanding its military relations with Armenia while at the same time putting pressure on Azerbaijan to join the so-called Eurasian Union. Finally, the Iranian navy has been conducting its own military exercises on the Caspian Sea during July 8¬–12. However, two of these connections drawn by the media seem tenuous; it is unlikely that the latest Turkish-Azerbaijani joint military drill was conducted in response to either Armenia’s threats about Turkish territory or Iran’s naval training exercises.

First of all, the joint military exercises were planned in advance (July 2–4, days before the start of Iran’s naval drills) as part of an inter-governmental memo on mutual understanding between Azerbaijan and Turkey, signed by high-level military officials and approved by presidential signatures. These joint exercises were among the concrete results of the “Agreement on Mutual Military Training and Education,” which the two countries signed back in August 1992, and later strengthened with additional agreements. Moreover, this month’s joint exercises were limited to one rifle brigade from the Azerbaijani Armed Forces and one Turkish detachment— and they did not test the naval capabilities of either country, unlike Iran’s July Caspian Sea exercise. Turkey and Azerbaijan have, for many years, participated in joint drills along with several other countries; for instance, at the same time as the Baku-Nakhchivan training exercises, Azerbaijani and Turkish forces participated in the “Sea Breeze 2013” naval exercise, hosted by Ukraine in the Black Sea between July 8 and 20 (The General Staff of the Republic of Turkey, July 8).

Second, joint Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises would not have been carried out as a response to Armenia’s threats. When responding to Yerevan’s unilateral provocations, Baku generally prefers to act alone. Furthermore, Azerbaijan wants to show that it has the independent military capacity to liberate its occupied territories, without needing help from its ally. Recent examples of this include the June 26 Armed Forces’ Day military parade (APA, June 26) and conducting military exercises in the neighborhood of the occupied territories, as happened in mid-May (Radio Free Europe, May 14).

Rather, the Turkish-Azerbaijani strategic alliance seeks to neutralize Armenia’s military cooperation with Russia. Baku and Ankara signed the 2010 “Agreement on Strategic Partnership and Mutual Assistance” (News.Az - Azerbaijan, Turkey sign partnership agreement just days before Yerevan and Moscow signed an agreement to extend Russia’s lease of its military bases in Armenia. The Baku-Ankara agreement prioritized security cooperation using the military, including all necessary measures within the existing framework for the purpose of mutual assistance in the event of a military attack or act of aggression against either country. But while Azerbaijan perceives its increasing security cooperation with Turkey as a means of balancing Russian-Armenian military cooperation, a discrete consequence of this strategy is that Ankara ends up balancing Moscow’s efforts in the South Caucasus. The Russian Federation retains another strategy for regional influence, however—a type of “bait balance” game, whereby Russia aids Azerbaijan in order to send a message to Armenia, subsequently pushing Yerevan into signing agreements with Moscow, thus increasing Armenia’s dependence.

Another issue to keep in mind is the history of Turkish-Azerbaijani military cooperation, which has long been institutionalized, notably bolstered by the aforementioned 2010 agreement. Under its current strategy, Baku is focusing on broadening cooperation with its closest partners, including Georgia (Civil.ge, March 28), and it is in this context that the Baku-Ankara military cooperation is especially visible, strengthening historical aspects such as joint military training drills, as well as Baku’s increased cooperation with Turkey’s much stronger defense industry.

The notion that the Turkish-Azerbaijani joint military exercises were carried out in response to sudden concurrent regional developments relies on a series of misunderstandings of the regional actors’ political agendas. First, President Vladimir Putin’s long expected, though not yet officially confirmed, visit to Baku is likely to occur next month. On the eve of this visit, it is not in Baku’s interests to increase tensions with Moscow. Just prior to the Turkish-Azerbaijani joint exercises, the president of the Russian oil company Rosneft, Igor Sechin, was in Baku (News.az, July 5), after which the news about President Putin’s possible visit was made public.

Additionally, aside from the issue of current regional tensions, it is in Baku’s interests not to antagonize Iran, even as Tehran tries to continue its “military show” in the Caspian Sea. Thus Baku’s approach is to wait and see the results of the inauguration of the newly elected President Hassan Rouhani on August 4. Rouhani’s inauguration messages to the West and the region will be key; the belief among the Azerbaijani ruling elite is that if Iran wishes to improve relations with the United States and the West, it must simultaneously establish cordial relations with Azerbaijan. Following this reasoning, Azerbaijan’s approach is to minimize tensions with both Russia and Iran. The joint military drills must be viewed within this larger regional picture, and not as simple responses to sudden flashes of tension in the South Caucasus; the chain of causality is not as simple as the local media asserts.
 
as long as erdogan in power nothing since iran hold the all energy card in their hands syria-iran-iraq-turkmenistan in all of these country iran have great influence or leverage in the gas case turkey is not in better condition than EU erdogan will play between russian and iran and this will give great influnce to iranian to both play with nato/EU and the russians
with all the support to the terrorism and you still think that erdogan has no influence on these countries.

tenths of thousands of terrorists invade Syria from turkey invaded Iraq from turkey and they keep sending terrorists group to both countries almost more than 10% of the terrorists in Iraq and Syria are turkish.

they by oil from terrorists that they steal from Iraq and Syria as a way of supporting them.

let me tell you this all the effort your erdogan do backed up by the west and arab to unstable this part of the world wont make you stronger nor saver because you are doing the wrong thing with wrong kind of people.

Bunch of lies, which is what is expected from a taqqiya (religious lie) practicing person.
Even Armenians have clearly stated the reason behind Iran support for Armenia, yet you try to say bunch of lies about "mediating".
Azerbaijan has captured hundreds of Iranian spies in the past decade which were trying to create religious goons like Hizballah, and also were attempting to bomb US and Israel embassy in Baku. But, your stupid friends failed each time, since Azerbaijani people are not like bunch of lebanese to be fooled and farsi religious extremism is not favorable in Azerbaijan and also Azerbaijan has a strong security system.
Now, stop trolling and polluting our threads for millionth time.
@rmi5 Are you azaris shiite or Sunnis.
 
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Don't be so sure. I think Azerbaijan doesn't need help in Karabakh war but if other powers get involved our position is clear. We are not doing these exercises for nothing. Caspian is Turkic lake.

I neither know the history of that region and clashes nor judge and side .

I hope you enjoy your lake .
 
with all the support to the terrorism and you still think that erdogan has no influence on these countries.

tenths of thousands of terrorists invade Syria from turkey invaded Iraq from turkey and they keep sending terrorists group to both countries almost more than 10% of the terrorists in Iraq and Syria are turkish.

they by oil from terrorists that they steal from Iraq and Syria as a way of supporting them.

let me tell you this all the effort your erdogan do backed up by the west and arab to unstable this part of the world wont make you stronger nor saver because you are doing the wrong thing with wrong kind of people.
Asena is not an Erdogan Supporter.
@rmi5 Are you azaris shiite or Sunnis.
Azerbaijanis are mostly shia, mostly secular, and the religious ones were/are more interested in more traditional shia clerics like Ayatullah Khoyi (RIP), and Shariatmadaari (RIP), and clerics like them and not interested in Vilayat Faqih, and those new bid'ah.
About taqqiya, it is not allowed when a person's live is not in danger, but these Khamenei goon practice lying whenever it suits their benefits, and think of it as taqqiya.
 
Asena is not an Erdogan Supporter.

Azerbaijanis are mostly shia, mostly secular, and the religious ones were/are more interested in more traditional shia clerics like Ayatullah Khoyi (RIP), and Shariatmadaari (RIP), and clerics like them and not interested in Vilayat Faqih, and those new bid'ah.
About taqqiya, it is not allowed when a person's live is not in danger, but these Khamenei goon practice lying whenever it suits their benefits, and think of it as taqqiya.
As long as azaris are shiite there is no worry about war between the two shiite nations as it will be unholy war we shiite suppose to make a unity for the goods of our people since the shiite states are as litte as 3 states so far.

now why there is a problem between Iran and Azerbaijan. why not both of you reach some kind of treaty or agreement, what ever you call it.it's really sad.

.By the way bro Rmi5 trust me that erdogan wont be any good to you he doesn't care about you been Turkic in origin as long as you are shiite you are the enemy.

how I'm happy to discover that Azerbaijan is Shiite may Allah bless us all.
 
As long as azaris are shiite there is no worry about war between the two shiite nations as it will be unholy war we shiite suppose to make a unity for the goods of our people since the shiite states are as litte as 3 states so far.
The fact is that Persians are backstabbers and they have already supported our enemy, Armenia, in war against us, and still support them. Persians are looking after their own benefits and do not care about Shiism or shiites. Just remember what they did against shia Hazara, and also Azerbaijanis.
now why there is a problem between Iran and Azerbaijan. why not both of you reach some kind of treaty or agreement, what ever you call it.it's really sad.
As ex-deputy of Armenian president has said, farsis are helping Azerbaijan enemies to avoid Azerbaijan influence in Azerbaijani population of Iran, and avoid Southern Azerbaijan to be separated from Iran. So, achieving any comprehensive treaty would be too optimistic.
.By the way bro Rmi5 trust me that erdogan wont be any good to you he doesn't care about you been Turkic in origin as long as you are shiite you are the enemy.
I know it very well. As long as AKP, and Erdogan is in power in turkey, I don't expect anything else from those type of people.

Malik Ashtar is right. those people are the ones that Erdogan prefers them over Iraqi Turkmens, like kurds, sunni extremists, ...
 
As ex-deputy of Armenian president has said, farsis are helping Azerbaijan enemies to avoid Azerbaijan influence in Azerbaijani population of Iran, and avoid Southern Azerbaijan to be separated from Iran. So, achieving any comprehensive treaty would be too optimistic.
BRO TALKS ALWAYS BETTER THAN BULLETS.
 
Malik Ashtar is right. those people are the ones that Erdogan prefers them over Iraqi Turkmens, like kurds, sunni extremists, ...
Mate, i didn't followed the conversation througly....I just saw his threats and responded, that's it.

Regarding
.By the way bro Rmi5 trust me that erdogan wont be any good to you he doesn't care about you been Turkic in origin as long as you are shiite you are the enemy.

Let's not dramatize bro. After each election, Azerbaijan has been always the first foreign visit of the Erdogan....not just Erdogan but every minister said many times that we have unconditioned support for Azerbaijan.

You are our real brothers and nothing or no one can change that.
 
Turkey's response is going to be symbolic. No way Turkey is going to react in a military sense, since Armenia is pretty much under the umbrella of Russia and its fellow oligarchs. Besides, with the Armenian genocide soon facing its 100-year 'birthday', Turkey is not going to risk a PR-backlash.

About Iran:

Iran is not going to involve itself militarily as well. The only casus belli is an Israeli attack on Iran from Azerbaijani soil. In such case, the IRGC would not have much problem to break Azerbaijani defenses. They will cut a hole in Azeri lines like a hot knife in butter. Iran's infantry is superior (both numerically and qualitatively) compared to Azerbaijan's infantry. The IRGC has more experience, is more determined and is battle-tested. Iran could even start an uprising in Azerbaijan by supporting Talysh and Shia-Islamist groups who are more Iran-orientated. Not even considering Iran's superior air force, its missile arsenal and naval superiority in the Caspian Sea.
 
Turkey's response is going to be symbolic. No way Turkey is going to react in a military sense, since Armenia is pretty much under the umbrella of Russia and its fellow oligarchs. Besides, with the Armenian genocide soon facing its 100-year 'birthday', Turkey is not going to risk a PR-backlash.

In simple words...that would be true...but world is not a simple place...there many things we can do without declearing war on Armenia.

About Iran:
Iran is not going to involve itself militarily as well. The only casus belli is an Israeli attack on Iran from Azerbaijani soil. In such case, the IRGC would not have much problem to break Azerbaijani defenses. They will cut a whole in Azeri lines like a hot knife in butter. Iran's infantry is superior (both numerically and qualitatively) compared to Azerbaijan's infantry. The IRGC has more experience, is more determined and is battle-tested. Iran could even start a uprising in Azerbaijan by supporting Talysh and Shia-Islamist groups who are more Iran-orientated. Not even considering Iran's superior air force, its missile arsenal and naval superiority in the Caspian Sea.

Hmm, would be true, if Turkey hadn't been.
 
In simple words...that would be true...but world is not a simple place...there many things we can do without declearing war on Armenia.

Turkey already has implemented an economic blockade on Armenia. So you have less incentives to force Armenia from continuing any possible clashes. If Turkey does involve itself, its going to be by providing ammunition, military advice and other non-game changing support to Azerbaijan. Not more than that probably.

Hmm, would be true, if Turkey hadn't been.

Turkey is not going to risk to antagonize Iran in such case. Besides, Iran has geographical advantage in any war with Turkey on Azerbaijani soil.
 

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