niaz
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I found an article in Dawn which says what I said in my post a few days ago in a much better way.
The next round By Cyril Almeida
Friday, 27 Mar, 2009 | 07:07 AM PST If things continue as they have done so far, Nawaz Sharif will turn into a living martyr - AP/File photo. THE Thing is, while the opposition wasnt in a position to force Zardari to keep his word the last time, this time the president wont be able to wriggle away so easily.
By now Nawaz Sharifs game plan has become clear. He wants three things from the PPP in the next round of political give-and-take (a game which may soon have to be renamed Zardari gives, Sharif takes): his and his brothers disqualification reversed; his government back in Punjab; and the CoD-inspired structural changes at the centre.
The first two Sharif wont be too worried about. With CJ Iftikhar back in the saddle, Musharraf-era convictions are likely to come under closer scrutiny than ever before. In any case, the Sharifs are simply too high-profile to roam around Punjab and not be allowed back into electoral politics. With every day that theyre shut out they edge closer to that delight of all politicians: becoming living martyrs.
And with the clock winding down on governors rule, there is still no sign of a PPPPML-Q union in the province. Again, even if the good ol Punjab guvnor manages to pull it off, Punjab belongs to Sharif any government in the province without his party would immediately be on death watch.
So, three constitutional amendment is what Sharif needs the most because only then will four become possible in the next round: going for power in Islamabad. But what Sharif wants the most right now is also the most difficult to wrest from Zardari. Hence, Sharif is playing a conciliatory hand for now.
Its not hard to see why Sharif needs Zardari to agree to unlock the constitutional cabinet and rearrange the pieces inside. Strong as Sharifs hand may be with the electorate, Zardari has placed himself in a constitutionally impregnable position until September 2013. There is simply no obvious way to oust the president; his legal impregnability may be even more solid than his physical security, which is at near-phobic levels.
So if Sharif cant oust the president, then he needs to at least defang him. Else a Sharif government at the centre would be dead on arrival. Imagine the scenario. A PML-N cabinet taking oath from a president whose party they have just ousted from power and a government serving at the pleasure of a 58(2)(b)-empowered president. Besides, all the key powers of appointment would lie with the president, rendering a PML-N government impotent in important areas.
So sift through Sharifs statements in recent days and youll find he has shrewdly centred his partys agenda in the post-judges restoration phase on a new principle: righting the imbalance of power between parliament and the president.
Its almost genius Sharif is manoeuvring the government into doing his dirty work for him, again. He first managed it when he got Zardari to agree to remove Musharraf. Anyone who believes Musharrafs ouster was Zardaris idea need only look at the goings-on in Punjab. Zardari has pursued what was essentially Musharrafs plan: an understanding between the PML-Q and the PPP. How much easier would that have been had the Q-Leagues patron still been around? The second occasion was of course CJ Iftikhars restoration. Now its time for the third. Sharifs strategy will be the same: evince no interest in controlling the levers of the state; hold up his clean hands to his base; ratchet up the pressure on the PPP by reminding it of its CoD commitment; and threaten street agitation as a wounded, principled interlocutor if Zardari doesnt capitulate.
Zardaris likely response? Stonewalling. He may hope that the Supreme Court withdraws from the politics of the Sharifs disqualification and leaves it to parliament to sort out the mess. In which case a quid pro quo between Zardari and Sharif may take centre stage: an incremental legislative and constitutional package that brings the Sharifs back into the electoral fold but leaves Zardaris powers mostly untouched.
Even otherwise, Zardari may gamble that sandbagged as he would be by Sharif, demands for subtle constitutional changes simply wont energise the people enough to come out on the streets.
Would Zardari succeed? Unlikely. Its advantage Sharif. Summer is approaching, and Punjab will be roiled by blackouts. Elsewhere, the Americans are determined to expand their drone strikes inside Pakistan, a deeply unpopular move that will infuriate the people. Sharif could simply bait-and-switch, pushing the governments back to the wall by championing populist causes and then allowing behind-the-scenes pressure to work its magic and bring down the political temperature by working out a compromise. Game Sharif.
The question for the rest of us though is, would it be good if Sharif succeeds, even if only for personal motives? Yes.
Two things matter. One, the constitution as it stands post-17th Amendment is designed for a strongman. It has no support among the politicians, expediency aside for the party whose man is in the presidency at any given time. As such it will always be a fount of instability and a source of constant distraction for the polity. It must go.
The second reason is tactical. The country is slipping towards a generation or more of a deeply fragmented electorate. Give the devil his due, Zardari has managed to cobble together a relatively strong majority in the National Assembly and the Senate. It falls short of a two-thirds majority, but with the support of the PMLs, both the N-League and the Q-League, constitutional change is within grasp.
The next configuration in parliament may not be so amenable to a two-thirds majority on any issue. More likely will be coalition governments with smaller majorities and bickering partners and with oppositions going for the kill from day one. In that environment, the presently much-reviled powers of the president will be highly prized for they will circumvent a rabid, noisome parliament.
So we should wish Sharif well in getting Zardari to cave. But not because he is a hero. Far from it. Simply that Sharifs self-interest today may be good for the interests of the rest of us tomorrow.
cyril.a@gmail.com
http://www.defence.pk/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=338129
The next round By Cyril Almeida
Friday, 27 Mar, 2009 | 07:07 AM PST If things continue as they have done so far, Nawaz Sharif will turn into a living martyr - AP/File photo. THE Thing is, while the opposition wasnt in a position to force Zardari to keep his word the last time, this time the president wont be able to wriggle away so easily.
By now Nawaz Sharifs game plan has become clear. He wants three things from the PPP in the next round of political give-and-take (a game which may soon have to be renamed Zardari gives, Sharif takes): his and his brothers disqualification reversed; his government back in Punjab; and the CoD-inspired structural changes at the centre.
The first two Sharif wont be too worried about. With CJ Iftikhar back in the saddle, Musharraf-era convictions are likely to come under closer scrutiny than ever before. In any case, the Sharifs are simply too high-profile to roam around Punjab and not be allowed back into electoral politics. With every day that theyre shut out they edge closer to that delight of all politicians: becoming living martyrs.
And with the clock winding down on governors rule, there is still no sign of a PPPPML-Q union in the province. Again, even if the good ol Punjab guvnor manages to pull it off, Punjab belongs to Sharif any government in the province without his party would immediately be on death watch.
So, three constitutional amendment is what Sharif needs the most because only then will four become possible in the next round: going for power in Islamabad. But what Sharif wants the most right now is also the most difficult to wrest from Zardari. Hence, Sharif is playing a conciliatory hand for now.
Its not hard to see why Sharif needs Zardari to agree to unlock the constitutional cabinet and rearrange the pieces inside. Strong as Sharifs hand may be with the electorate, Zardari has placed himself in a constitutionally impregnable position until September 2013. There is simply no obvious way to oust the president; his legal impregnability may be even more solid than his physical security, which is at near-phobic levels.
So if Sharif cant oust the president, then he needs to at least defang him. Else a Sharif government at the centre would be dead on arrival. Imagine the scenario. A PML-N cabinet taking oath from a president whose party they have just ousted from power and a government serving at the pleasure of a 58(2)(b)-empowered president. Besides, all the key powers of appointment would lie with the president, rendering a PML-N government impotent in important areas.
So sift through Sharifs statements in recent days and youll find he has shrewdly centred his partys agenda in the post-judges restoration phase on a new principle: righting the imbalance of power between parliament and the president.
Its almost genius Sharif is manoeuvring the government into doing his dirty work for him, again. He first managed it when he got Zardari to agree to remove Musharraf. Anyone who believes Musharrafs ouster was Zardaris idea need only look at the goings-on in Punjab. Zardari has pursued what was essentially Musharrafs plan: an understanding between the PML-Q and the PPP. How much easier would that have been had the Q-Leagues patron still been around? The second occasion was of course CJ Iftikhars restoration. Now its time for the third. Sharifs strategy will be the same: evince no interest in controlling the levers of the state; hold up his clean hands to his base; ratchet up the pressure on the PPP by reminding it of its CoD commitment; and threaten street agitation as a wounded, principled interlocutor if Zardari doesnt capitulate.
Zardaris likely response? Stonewalling. He may hope that the Supreme Court withdraws from the politics of the Sharifs disqualification and leaves it to parliament to sort out the mess. In which case a quid pro quo between Zardari and Sharif may take centre stage: an incremental legislative and constitutional package that brings the Sharifs back into the electoral fold but leaves Zardaris powers mostly untouched.
Even otherwise, Zardari may gamble that sandbagged as he would be by Sharif, demands for subtle constitutional changes simply wont energise the people enough to come out on the streets.
Would Zardari succeed? Unlikely. Its advantage Sharif. Summer is approaching, and Punjab will be roiled by blackouts. Elsewhere, the Americans are determined to expand their drone strikes inside Pakistan, a deeply unpopular move that will infuriate the people. Sharif could simply bait-and-switch, pushing the governments back to the wall by championing populist causes and then allowing behind-the-scenes pressure to work its magic and bring down the political temperature by working out a compromise. Game Sharif.
The question for the rest of us though is, would it be good if Sharif succeeds, even if only for personal motives? Yes.
Two things matter. One, the constitution as it stands post-17th Amendment is designed for a strongman. It has no support among the politicians, expediency aside for the party whose man is in the presidency at any given time. As such it will always be a fount of instability and a source of constant distraction for the polity. It must go.
The second reason is tactical. The country is slipping towards a generation or more of a deeply fragmented electorate. Give the devil his due, Zardari has managed to cobble together a relatively strong majority in the National Assembly and the Senate. It falls short of a two-thirds majority, but with the support of the PMLs, both the N-League and the Q-League, constitutional change is within grasp.
The next configuration in parliament may not be so amenable to a two-thirds majority on any issue. More likely will be coalition governments with smaller majorities and bickering partners and with oppositions going for the kill from day one. In that environment, the presently much-reviled powers of the president will be highly prized for they will circumvent a rabid, noisome parliament.
So we should wish Sharif well in getting Zardari to cave. But not because he is a hero. Far from it. Simply that Sharifs self-interest today may be good for the interests of the rest of us tomorrow.
cyril.a@gmail.com
http://www.defence.pk/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=338129
