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JF-17 Thunder Multirole Fighter [Thread 7]

Well during late 90s and early 00, there were few local experienced hands for project FC1 & thank God for Russian who were able to resolve most of our ifs&buts and massive indecisiveness in key areas. The same ifs&buts and basically bad irky planning is persisting today. We require qualified leadership for such jobs & not defence thakaydars and commercial agents- the right man for the right job. Thesedays post-retirement i speak out my mind at meetings taking on the wolves at their faces.

Hi,

As I have stated many a times----there are not too many bright shining stars in the Paf future planning division---.
 
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Thats not hindsight but a Dejavu ... We were hit by pressler's amendment back in 80s as soon as Russia got defeated in Afghanistan ... We again got sanction on reimbursement of expenses incurred on behalf of US as soon as Taliban became weak ...

Right it down ,,, the moment Taliban got defeated or US leaves Afghanistan they will throw us like tissue paper ... You can keep on dreaming that F16s will be allowed to upgrade ...

Even if they will be allowed upgrade it will be upto the extent of ensuring that India don't get annoyed ...

Regarding RD 93, you can always get the spare engine in an expected war situation the real issue is of ammunition ... Which you can get from China ... or alternatively you can try to get an overhaul facility but in case of F16s you have no alternative ... They don't allow you to do anything to aircraft without permission ...
dont forget, promise those who keep LM funded a cushy job in US post retirement.
 
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This is not about the cost only ... f16s were not totally free ... they were reimbursement of expenses we were incurring on behalf of US ...

Didnt we opted to be bitten by same snake of sanction as it bitten us in 80s in the name of pressler amendment ... thise reimbursement could have been use in any other procurement ...

Now look where we are ... our frontline fighter is now going to be jf17 block 3 ...

A greater fighter but with no uogrades and spares in case of war is no good as compared to a medium fighter with future upgrades and no restriction at time of war ...

If cost is the criteria then fighter aircraft are expensive ... we should stop buying them at all ...
by having an aircraft common to both PAF and PLAAF, we can hope to get attrition replacement from PLAAF in case of prolonged conflict.
That can be a huge advantage.
 
is that true for Blk1 also ? specially after the rebuild ?
Well as the blk-1 are being upgraded to blk-2 standards they too will be same bcz there wont be any blk-1 any more after the up-gradation only blk-2 nd 3
 
How much did the 18 F-16, the 2nd hand RJAF F-16s and the MLU of our existing fleet cost us each? Once you have those numbers, how much does a new J-10B/C costs? Then we can do the comparison to see whether what PAF did made sense or not.

Lemme jog your memory back to 2005, when it first came out that Pakistan Air Force was going for Block-52 F-16s. How many Block-52s was Pakistan Air Force planning on getting? It was announced that Pakistan Air Force was going to order 75 Block-52s. You think Pakistan had the economic clout to go for that many Block-52s? The answer is NO! American military aid was going to subsidize the sale. After the Earthquake however, Pakistan reduce the order to just 18 Block-52s. The same way Pakistan was going to buy the 8 Block-52s from the US, before Trump decided to cut off American Military Aid to Pakistan, which was going allow Pakistan Air Force to get the 8 Block-52s at half price. After the Aid was cut off, Pakistan cancelled the planned acquisition of 8 Block-52s.

Pakistan also signed a deal with China for 8 brand new S-20 submarines, plus 4 brand new Type-054 frigates. You think Pakistan had the money for those purchases? The biggest military acquisition in the history of Sino-Pakistan Alliance, worth billions of dollars. Pakistan had no money for 8 new submarines nor the 4 new frigates. The only reason why Pakistan can afford to go for that many subs and frigates is due its strategic alliance with China. The same way Block-52s resulted due Pakistan's strategic partnership with America in the war on terror.

Countries like Pakistan rely on other methods for defense acquisitions, not everyone can just throw many at things like the Saudis, Qataris, Emiratis or Indians do. Indonesia used barter trade for its Flankers, with Russia. So this whole run around about costs, is in effect, irrelevant. Since China is Pakistan's primary ally, it's not a matter of how much money is needed for a fighter acquisition. Rather it is about the strategic planning, the absorption of technology, the capacity of the Pakistan Air Force to maintain an absorption rate of new ToT, while also have enough expertise manpower to cater it.

At present, there are some options which Pakistan Air Force may go for:

1. Buy J-10Cs in small batches to go upto 80-90 or more fighters, until the 5th Gen Stealth Fighters are inducted. Along with additional Vipers to raise the fleet size to 100 fighters. With 250 Thunders as over all production.

2. Buy more used F-16s, increasing the fleet size b/w 100-150 Vipers, and continue production of PAC to 300 Thunders. Not buying J-10Cs and waiting for Stealth Fighter to become available.

3. Keep current force projections to 200 Thunders, 76 Vipers (+15 Jordanian F-16s) and keep Mirages going for as long as possible.

4. Breakthrough in deal with Russia, buying Su-35s in batches over the course of the next decade. Replacing Mirages and F-7s. Stealth fighter would replace Vipers.

The most likely scenario from the four stated above would be Pakistan Air Force having a mix of J-10Cs, JF-17s & F-16s, consequently phasing out the oldest Mirages and F-7s. If budgetary limits are expanded based on Chinese military aid program, then it is likely that Pakistan Air Force would try and get ToT for J-10Cs.

I would say let's see what happens once the Block-llls are rolled out. Will have better idea then.
 
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Lemme jog your memory back to 2005, when it first came out that Pakistan Air Force was going for Block-52 F-16s. How many Block-52s was Pakistan Air Force planning on getting? It was announced that Pakistan Air Force was going to order 70 Block-52s. You think Pakistan had the economic clout to go for that many Block-52s? The answer is NO! American military aid was going to subsidize the sale. After the Earthquake however, Pakistan reduce the order to just 18 Block-52s. The same way Pakistan was going to buy the 8 Block-52s from the US, before Trump decided to cut off American Military Aid to Pakistan, which was going allow Pakistan Air Force to get the 8 Block-52s at half price. After the Aid was cut off, Pakistan cancelled the planned acquisition of 8 Block-52s.

Pakistan also signed a deal with China for 8 brand new S-20 submarines, plus 4 brand new Type-054 frigates. You think Pakistan had the money for those purchases? The biggest military acquisition in the history of Sino-Pakistan Alliance, worth billions of dollars. Pakistan had no money for 8 new submarines nor the 4 new frigates. The only reason why Pakistan can afford to go for that many subs and frigates is due its strategic alliance with China. The same way Block-52s resulted due Pakistan's strategic partnership with America in the war on terror.

Countries like Pakistan rely on other methods for defense acquisitions, not everyone can just throw many at things like the Saudis, Qataris, Emiratis or Indians do. Indonesia used barter trade for its Flankers, with Russia. So this whole run around about costs, is in effect, irrelevant. Since China is Pakistan's primary ally, it's not a matter of how much money is needed for a fighter acquisition. Rather it is about the strategic planning, the absorption of technology, the capacity of the Pakistan Air Force to maintain an absorption rate of new ToT, while also have enough expertise manpower to cater it.

At present, there are some options which Pakistan Air Force may go for:

1. Buy J-10Cs in small batches to go upto 80-90 or more fighters, until the 5th Gen Stealth Fighters are inducted. Along with additional Vipers to raise the fleet size to 100 fighters. With 250 Thunders as over all production.

2. Buy more used F-16s, increasing the fleet size b/w 100-150 Vipers, and continue production of PAC to 300 Thunders. Not buying J-10Cs and waiting for Stealth Fighter to become available.

3. Keep current force projections to 200 Thunders, 76 Vipers (+15 Jordanian F-16s) and keep Mirages going for as long as possible.

4. Breakthrough in deal with Russia, buying Su-35s in batches over the course of the next decade. Replacing Mirages and F-7s. Stealth fighter would replace Vipers.

The most likely scenario from the four stated above would be Pakistan Air Force having a mix of J-10Cs, JF-17s & F-16s, consequently phasing out the oldest Mirages and F-7s. If budgetary limits are expanded based on Chinese military aid program, then it is likely that Pakistan Air Force would try and get ToT for J-10Cs.

I would say let's see what happens once the Block-llls are rolled out. Will have better idea then.

#3 is the only thing that will happen. If #1 was ever going to happen, it would have happened already. #2 is not happening due to unseen sanctions (US will no longer subsidize). #4 won't happen either since (a) Pakistan doesn't have the funds and (b) Pakistan-Russia relationship is not at that level yet.
 
You are wrong and also contradicted yourself in your post.
The actual number was 36 planes not 70.
If they were being paid by US then why reduce the numbers whether we had earthquake or not?

Lemme jog your memory back to 2005, when it first came out that Pakistan Air Force was going for Block-52 F-16s. How many Block-52s was Pakistan Air Force planning on getting? It was announced that Pakistan Air Force was going to order 70 Block-52s. You think Pakistan had the economic clout to go for that many Block-52s? The answer is NO! American military aid was going to subsidize the sale. After the Earthquake however, Pakistan reduce the order to just 18 Block-52s. The same way Pakistan was going to buy the 8 Block-52s from the US, before Trump decided to cut off American Military Aid to Pakistan, which was going allow Pakistan Air Force to get the 8 Block-52s at half price. After the Aid was cut off, Pakistan cancelled the planned acquisition of 8 Block-52s.

Pakistan also signed a deal with China for 8 brand new S-20 submarines, plus 4 brand new Type-054 frigates. You think Pakistan had the money for those purchases? The biggest military acquisition in the history of Sino-Pakistan Alliance, worth billions of dollars. Pakistan had no money for 8 new submarines nor the 4 new frigates. The only reason why Pakistan can afford to go for that many subs and frigates is due its strategic alliance with China. The same way Block-52s resulted due Pakistan's strategic partnership with America in the war on terror.

Countries like Pakistan rely on other methods for defense acquisitions, not everyone can just throw many at things like the Saudis, Qataris, Emiratis or Indians do. Indonesia used barter trade for its Flankers, with Russia. So this whole run around about costs, is in effect, irrelevant. Since China is Pakistan's primary ally, it's not a matter of how much money is needed for a fighter acquisition. Rather it is about the strategic planning, the absorption of technology, the capacity of the Pakistan Air Force to maintain an absorption rate of new ToT, while also have enough expertise manpower to cater it.

At present, there are some options which Pakistan Air Force may go for:

1. Buy J-10Cs in small batches to go upto 80-90 or more fighters, until the 5th Gen Stealth Fighters are inducted. Along with additional Vipers to raise the fleet size to 100 fighters. With 250 Thunders as over all production.

2. Buy more used F-16s, increasing the fleet size b/w 100-150 Vipers, and continue production of PAC to 300 Thunders. Not buying J-10Cs and waiting for Stealth Fighter to become available.

3. Keep current force projections to 200 Thunders, 76 Vipers (+15 Jordanian F-16s) and keep Mirages going for as long as possible.

4. Breakthrough in deal with Russia, buying Su-35s in batches over the course of the next decade. Replacing Mirages and F-7s. Stealth fighter would replace Vipers.

The most likely scenario from the four stated above would be Pakistan Air Force having a mix of J-10Cs, JF-17s & F-16s, consequently phasing out the oldest Mirages and F-7s. If budgetary limits are expanded based on Chinese military aid program, then it is likely that Pakistan Air Force would try and get ToT for J-10Cs.

I would say let's see what happens once the Block-llls are rolled out. Will have better idea then.
 
You are wrong and also contradicted yourself in your post.
The actual number was 36 planes not 70.
If they were being paid by US then why reduce the numbers whether we had earthquake or not?

Any Pakistani who has been following the F-16/Pakistan saga, could not ever forget when the news first came out that US repealed the Pressler Amendment and allowed Pakistan to buy F-16s. In 2005, when the Americans bestowed the "Major Non-Nato Ally" status on Pakistan. We were given access to buy Block-52 F-16s, and Pakistan Air Force went head-on for 75 Block-52s, with the initial order of 36 under the FMS quotient.

https://m.rediff.com/news/2005/aug/13planes.htm

US also reimbursed Pakistan for the 28 F-16s it had paid for but never were delivered to Pakistan Air Force. They did it through the EDA (Excess Defense Articles) and US military aid program, under the War on Terror - MNNA status. And since the sanctions were lifted, Pakistan had access to buy F-16s from other countries which wanted to sell off surplus aircraft. It was through this mechanism, Pakistan opted for Jordanian F-16s in addition to the US EDA Vipers.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/pakistan/f-16.htm

As for why did Pakistan only order 18 Vipers, instead of 75 or 36. Well the earthquake was the main reason. Yes Pakistan Air Force was going forward with the acquisition under the US military aid. But the military aid doesn't work in the way you're assuming it does. Subsidies are incorporated into the FMS, whereby there is a 70%(US military aid) - 30% (Sovereign Funds) for example. Had there been no earthquake, the initial tranche of 36 F-16s would've been ordered under FMS, with Pakistan paying it's share under the subsidies of US military aid. And over the course of the acquisition program, which is to be kept at pace with the military budget. Would have spanned about 6-7 years, encompassing all 75 Block-52 Vipers. Reducing the order to just 18, instead of 36 (at the time), was meant to approach the acquisition on an incremental basis. Small batches meant less money to be forked out from the Sovereign Fund.
 

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