Hi,
JF 17 is the wrong air craft for the armed forces of Pakistan. Even though it has been inducted with a great fanfare and extremely positive results---this aircraft is a little too small aircraft to do the job right when facing the likes of IAF.
On its own merit---the JF 17---for its size has one of the best overall packages available in the industry---air to air---air to ground and air to sea---.
So---in order to have balance in its air arm---Pakistan will have to purchase multiple other platforms.
We have the F16's and possibly no more F 16's----.
We need a medium strike aircraft---with the likes of a JH7B with aesa---this aircraft is like the tornado---.
Pakistan also need an air superiority type aircraft----like the J 10B----or the J 11---and then on top of that---Pakistan will be looking forward to a stealth type plane like the J 31.
Basically---PAF CANNOT be TRUSTED to buy the right type of equipment---. Like in the case of Saab aircraft----. Paf wanted all saab aircraft and Musharraf put a stop to it and got 4 or 5 chinese variants to have diversity and lines open in case of sanctions from Sweden.
Musharraf's decision proved to ve correct----the Chinese aircraft are as potent or better than the Swedish.
In a similar manner---Musharraf made the deal to buy 36 J 10's---. He knew in his heart and he knew from his experience that the JF 17 as good as it is in its class with all the paraphernalia---is not the answer to the needs of Pakistan.
Now Paf may have thought otherwise----but if you ook at the history of Paf since 1971----it is mostly of failures---bad decisions---lack of understanding the level of threat .
The thing is, people think they are still in the 70's, 90's or 2000's. That is not the case anymore. Just like for the first time, the electric strategy is planned till 2040 (along with all infrastructure components by assessing population and economic growth), the same process has been put into every department within the Pakistani government, to do projects knowing long term needs, and only do projects which can be expanded more, and internally by future governments, and will cover Pakistan's needs for 2040.
This also includes military procurements. A comprehensive defense strategy is being created to cover for all needs till the year 2025, and it will be enhanced every few years based on any new threats or emerging threats.
The Army Chief and the Air Chief were very concerned about India's defense acquisitions (when the news of Rafale came out at 126 headcount). They met with the PM and he had assured him that the defense can never be given a secondary priority. Specially when the aggressive neighbor is on and onto new stuff. The funding was an issue and its being resolved in all aspects. Remember, unlike India, Pakistan is under strict IMF's lens. So things are difficult to do, but not impossible. I'll shed some details on it below. But let's address some of the stuff from the post above:
1) JFT was never designed to compete with SU-30's or take out India's Naval Aircraft Carrier in a sortie of 4 JFT's. That's a messed up assumption. JFT was two things: One: A worst case scenario aircraft that if ALL hell breaks lose and the -16's are out of spares, sanctions still on and the economy hitting the dust.....what can "defend" Pakistan with India in a cost effective manner, and some time is bought to seize fire or raise the threshold to a level where the world powers would get involved. Obviously, to go to the negotiation table, you still need a gun, even with a few bullets left. Because if the enemy knew you had no bullets left (an air arm in this scenario), they won't negotiate.
They'll conquer you knowing there is no interceptor causing any serious loss to invading jets or ground support aircraft. So this was the purpose of the basic JFT. I know we make fun of India's LCA as Last Chance Aircraft, but that's the true designation of the JFT, in case sanctions were never lifted and the economy went underground, like a doomsday scenario for PAF's procurements.
2: JFT was a replacement for aircraft's which, like a decade ago were finally given one MFD's as upgrades. So you can imagine the rest of what those jets from 40 years ago had in them. But the replacement with JFT, is as if you replaced a 1970s purchased Mig 21 with a Mirage 2000 (without the 2005 upgrades) in IAF (comparison created for Indian readers). This is a significant upgrade and capability, and its unmatched for the price tag of $ 15 or even 25 million as 60% of it is home grown so the money stays in, vs. given to Chengdu or Shenyang.
3: Now with the JFT, you challenge anything in the air. If you have good BVR missiles and you can get a lock onto an SU-30 50-60 KM away, you can fire two missiles with gaps, knowing one will be defeated and you hope that the SU pilot, will use the TVC to beat the missile. Which means, for the second missile, it will be a cake walk kill (if you fire with the right intervals). The second missile should hit it while its recovering bled energy and can't outmaneuver the missile.
Similarly, can you take out half the IN with the JFT? NO. But can you fire say 12 supersonic anti-ship missile at their AC, and expect 1 or 2 to hit? Absolutely. What does this mean for the IN??? ....they are now being forced to park their AC 500+ nautical miles away from Pakistan, as the Pakistani EEZ is now out to about 300-400 nautical miles out. So JFT is really a great deterrent for the entire Indian Military coming toward Pakistan. It does decent ground support also.
JFT can by itself, deal with India's Mig-21's, 23, 27 and 29's, and the Mirage 2000's. SU-30 and Rafale in BVR at the RIGHT distance though. The JFT must be positioned in a way where it can come onto an SU-30's radar at the SAME time as it sees the SU, and the distance is around 70KM max, may be 80KM. So for this weapons platform to work effectively, positioning it closer to border for interception would be required.
For SU-30's, you have the Viper. Again, positioning the Viper where SU-30's bigger radar has no use, meaning they both see each other and lock onto each other at the same time......Viper can handle the SU-30's and Rafale's in BVR and in a Dog Fight, number of Vipes may be become an issue though as the numbers of Vipers would be lower. JFT will lose in a WVR with the SU and the Rafale for sure. BVR, they all have an equal chance as that depends a lot on the missile and how advanced it is.
The PAF beat the EFT many times, it can do so with the Rafale's too, as they share similar technology base. Remember, the PAF did that with all electronics working (between the EFT and the -16, as they are both NATO aircraft). Indians fought with EFT with all electronic turned off, so it was an airframe dynamic analysis competition in my books.
Now fast forward to today:
1: PN: Pakistan is becoming a growing economy, with already expanded EEZ. Which means the Navy has to be expanded to provide protection throughout its EEZ. This equals to an increase in fleet capacity two fold in the near years as it based on two serious and strategic needs:
One: a natural increase that was due a decade ago, to keep a minimum number of ships against the IN.
Second, the new economic growth which has to take place soon due to CPEC, plus add the EEZ expansion and protection of the future trade routes all the way to the strait of Homez. This has been discussed internally between the PM, the PN and the Army Chief,, more missile boats, submarines and frigates are being bought and build, the process will continue even after a second strike capability is introduced in a significant manner. The next 3-5 years will show you the result of this shift in strategy.
A part of this expansion is to include 2-3 squadrons of dedicated Naval jets. Again, my analogy for JFT as a deterrence applies here from the above post. Knowing that a large strike package can be put together, (say 20 JFT's with 2 super sonic anti-ship missiles), means any large or important ship, like the AC or the Kokatta class DDG could face a large volley of 40 anti-shipt cruise missiles (or more as 2 squadrons means 36-40 jets).
What ship, whether an AC or not, wants to face 40 super sonic cruise missiles? Or even 4-8 super sonic missiles? NONE, so the big deal ships will be pushed out WAY past the 500 mile radius as 400 nautical miles, is Pakistan's EEZ from Karachi's shore lines I believe. And in this entire area, Pakistani Navy will be present and the JFT's will fly out in naval CAP formations routinely. So you've pushed the enemy way out, and have impacted their ability to attack and achieve any serious results.
Indian talks and threats of doing a "blockade" of Karachi have disappeared recently as the EEZ's has extended. Just like the Cold Feet doctrine has seen its Cold Feet even with hundreds of thousands soldiers, heavily mechanized and strong IBG's, now see a full stop, from a 60 km Nasar!!!
2: PAF: The talk about Musharraf taking decisions on the Chinese AWACS.....is silly. If anyone here knows the real situation, please chime in. Otherwise if no one speaks up, I will gladly
. But it turned OUT to be a good decision. At the time of making this decision, it wasn't so, because it was not thought through at all.
FC-20s were all talk no money. These were discussed many times but at the end of Mushy's time, the economic downfall was very visible as soon as the US put controls on flow of the $$$$. Zardari's time, useless to discuss here.But the FC-20 were off the table and "ON" in talks but no money no honey!!!
For the future, the government is wanting to get a TOT based plane. NS and his team are like Modi,......BIG on build in Pakistan anthem which makes sense. They know what their talent can do. So expect a TOT deal with the Chinese.
Due to IMF restrictions and the global visibility AND India's slow purchase of Rafale, the Pakistanis are watching and buying time. If India was to confirm Rafale last year, a 3-4 squadron order for the FC-20 would've been given but that wasn't ideal. This delay in Rafale has opened up other doors with the Russians on SU-35 and with the Chinese on J-11D or J-16's.
So something big will come soon. The J-31 is ALSO on the cards and in terms of made in Pakistan or "assemble in Pakistan". But they are moving silently and carefully as they have IMF bitc*hing about these things and India spreading propaganda so avoid what you can and get things done.
Watch the defense budget sky rocketing starting 2017 (as many of these IMF limitations will be over by then), electric production will start, business will start to operate on 100% threshold and economy will kick off to a next level. The defense budget will hit somewhere from @ 12-15 Billion by the end of 2018. By 2020-2022, you're defense budget would be equal to that of Turkeys!!! You can count on my words!!
One thing is for sure, Pakistan is bound to be the top 15th economy in the next 15 years. You could not defend a growing economy and with a sizable enemy next door (and Afghanistan brewing the enemy-like attitude), with mere 250 BVR jets.
This number will get to around 400-450 in the next 5-6 years. 200 JFT's, all BVR-able (and with Russian missiles too, as there is a deal in the pipes on Archer, etc
), about 100 -16's (might go to 120 with 18 new block 52's provision also being used...If less number of SU-35 are bought), about 44 J-11D's or 44 SU-35's, and 40 J-11D's or 40-60 FC-20 for dedicated Naval arm. Plus whenever the J-31 deal is done and infrastructure is built in Pakistan to support assembly of this jet. Add J-31's numbers later.
So the real strategic planning has started. A failled Pakistan at this juncture of her economic growth and possibilities, isn't acceptable. And a chance for it to become a stronger, more powerful and more important country with tolerance, growth and peace for all, is the destiny.
You'll start to see the benefits of these strategies towards the end of 2017, or in the beginning of, whether its electric production, CPEC, PN's dedicated Naval squadrons, PAF's new acquisitions, etc. Till then, have faith and trust in the current system. It is doing a LOT of important things, it silly to think the system will ignore the basis of its survival, aka, the defense!!!
@Umair Nawaz @MastanKhan @HRK @AZADPAKISTAN2009 @Oscar @Windjammer @Horus : the above post might address some concerns outlined in the original analysis of this thread. Please comment as I learn new things from you guys, so knowledge sharing helps everyone.
