Japan’s fear of China

[Suika]

Why even bother seriously responding to this doofus. HE IS NOT JAPANESE.

This is him, literally.

To other places? My friend, China is also going through this stage, so we know the USA after WW2 and 1980s-Japan . With a lot of money in hand, and need to find a way out.

If a fool with good credit is willing to lend at the interest rate of 3.5% before the sharp appreciation of CNY, we are also willing to lend him all the money.

安倍亲自到中国来宣布：日本停止对中国的官方援助，持续40年的ODA正式结束。你知道这事吗？ - 日记

10月25号，日本首相安倍晋三抵达北京，这是日本首相时隔7年第一次正式访华。 安倍此次访华的目的之一就是宣布日本政府不再援助中国，ODA终止！ 很多天朝子民们听到这一消息，一脸懵逼 “日本啥时候援助过中国？ODA又是什么鬼？” “不援助就不援助呗？谁稀罕！” “好像最近这几年，一直都是中国在帮助日本的GDP增长吧！” …… 还有不少天朝子民，对ODA早有了解，会心一笑 “日本确实帮了我们不少忙，应...

m.douban.com

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So contrary to the why you guys here are talking down the benefit of the Japanese ODA to China, the article itself seems quite balanced, one paragraph listing the projects completed with the ODA, another pointing out that the vast majority of loans is tax revenue from Japanese national people, and another pointing out that the loans where in the end beneficial for China for its low interest long term payment plan. About the 2008 part, it said only part of the loan stopped as in type. But that only financial and technical remained afterwards. But isn't financial the primary form of loan anyway? So saying "it stopped in 2008" seems like a total exaggeration. Also your point about "1985 being the biggest year of ODA sending" and your whole theory with "weak yen at first to strong yen later meaning making repayment very difficult" is no where hinted in the article. You guys are being totally unfair in your assertions about the ODA program that even the Chinese article doesn't match such negativity about it.

 

[MH.Yang]

So contrary to the why you guys here are talking down the benefit of the Japanese ODA to China, the article itself seems quite balanced, one paragraph listing the projects completed with the ODA, another pointing out that the vast majority of loans is tax revenue from Japanese national people, and another pointing out that the loans where in the end beneficial for China for its low interest long term payment plan. About the 2008 part, it said only part of the loan stopped as in type. But that only financial and technical remained afterwards. But isn't financial the primary form of loan anyway? So saying "it stopped in 2008" seems like a total exaggeration. Also your point about "1985 being the biggest year of ODA sending" and your whole theory with "weak yen at first to strong yen later meaning making repayment very difficult" is no where hinted in the article. You guys are being totally unfair in your assertions about the ODA program that even the Chinese article doesn't match such negativity about it.

It is the ability of the Chinese people to use loans to complete some projects. Doesn't mean ODA is not a trap. You can lend the same amount to India. What do you think they can do?

The chart you sent has the US dollar data of 1985. You can know the answer by calculating the change of exchange rate.

 

[Suika]

Do you mean that the Japanese govt did not expect that < Plaza Accord > would lead to a significant appreciation of the yen? Or do you mean that < Plaza Accord > is an agreement reached between the USA and Japan in a very short time, and the two countries did not have a long time communicate&negotiate privately before sign?

The Plaza accord is over emphasized. Yes, I do think it was used by the US to knock a growing Japan on the head to slow down its growth. But some degree of a knock on the head was not unreasonable. The yen was much weaker than the dollar upon entering the 1980s despite Japan having reached top tier technology capability in a number of fields. Japanese companies were making huge gains on the US market and that came at the expense of many US companies. Japanese products had high quality that made them competitive but the low yen also gave the Japanese products a cost advantage in the US market. It was high time for the Japanese yen's strength to reflect Japanese achievement in technology.

The Plaza Accord gets blamed for causing the Japan bubble crash. But the Plaza Accord was signed in 1985. Look at the Nikkei stock Market? Did it crash as a result of the signing? No it didn't. Despite all business and such could expect the yen to strengthen, the Nikkei market kept climbing. The Yen's strength surged from about 255 to one dollar in 1985 to about 135 to one dollar by 1988. Did such a strengthening impact the Nikkei market? No, it didn't, the market still kept climbing. What were these Japanese investing in? If the super strong yen was supposed to spell doom for the Japanese economy then shouldn't business sentiment sink low? And isn't the consequence of low business sentiment is the crashing of a stock market? The Nikkei shouldn't have kept rising but it did. So the Japanese have some of their own fault in it with over investment I think. The crash did not happen until January 1990. Well such a drastic change in the yen's strength over the course of just 3 years from 1985 to 1988 probably laid some issues to emerge later down the road but still it probably could have been handled better.

Finally some other points about why the Japanese economy stagnated for the rest of the 1990s and 2000s.

One reason is that Japanese GDP per capita reached well into high class by the early 1990s so GDP per capita can'T be expected to increase so much anymore. But also the population of Japan had also reached its max point. It was 125 million in 1990 and just 2 million more for 127 million in year 2000. It crawled to 128 million but then went back down to 127 million and then to 126 million now. In contrast, look at the US population in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020... (1990) 250 million, (2000) 280 million, (2010) 309 million, (2020) 331 million. Population is a big factor for GDP and the US as a high income country saw a rather massive increase of population while Japan's population size did not really increase in the same time period.

Another reason is because behind Japan came other countries rising that did the same thing to Japanese companies that Japanese companies did to the US companies; low wage meaning cheaper product.Emerging South Korea under cut much of what was Japanese sphere because South Korea was still a developing economy and undercut Japanese products in electronics, ship building, and to a lesser extent cars. During the 1980s, Japanese companies didn't have low wage competition.

It is the ability of the Chinese people to use loans to complete some projects. Doesn't mean ODA is not a trap. You can lend the same amount to India. What do you think they can do?

The chart you sent has the US dollar data of 1985. You can know the answer by calculating the change of exchange rate.

The bulk of the ODA was sent when the yen was already strong.

 

[Foinikas]

Amerikajin desu ga, ima made 10 nenkan kurai nihon ni sundeimasu.
アメリカ人ですが、今まで10年間くらい日本に住んでいます。

Sugoi,sugoi!

 

[Leishangthem]

The Plaza accord is over emphasized. Yes, I do think it was used by the US to knock a growing Japan on the head to slow down its growth. But some degree of a knock on the head was not unreasonable. The yen was much weaker than the dollar upon entering the 1980s despite Japan having reached top tier technology capability in a number of fields. Japanese companies were making huge gains on the US market and that came at the expense of many US companies. Japanese products had high quality that made them competitive but the low yen also gave the Japanese products a cost advantage in the US market. It was high time for the Japanese yen's strength to reflect Japanese achievement in technology.

The Plaza Accord gets blamed for causing the Japan bubble crash. But the Plaza Accord was signed in 1985. Look at the Nikkei stock Market? Did it crash as a result of the signing? No it didn't. Despite all business and such could expect the yen to strengthen, the Nikkei market kept climbing. The Yen's strength surged from about 255 to one dollar in 1985 to about 135 to one dollar by 1988. Did such a strengthening impact the Nikkei market? No, it didn't, the market still kept climbing. What were these Japanese investing in? If the super strong yen was supposed to spell doom for the Japanese economy then shouldn't business sentiment sink low? And isn't the consequence of low business sentiment is the crashing of a stock market? The Nikkei shouldn't have kept rising but it did. So the Japanese have some of their own fault in it with over investment I think. The crash did not happen until January 1990. Well such a drastic change in the yen's strength over the course of just 3 years from 1985 to 1988 probably laid some issues to emerge later down the road but still it probably could have been handled better.

Finally some other points about why the Japanese economy stagnated for the rest of the 1990s and 2000s.

One reason is that Japanese GDP per capita reached well into high class by the early 1990s so GDP per capita can'T be expected to increase so much anymore. But also the population of Japan had also reached its max point. It was 125 million in 1990 and just 2 million more for 127 million in year 2000. It crawled to 128 million but then went back down to 127 million and then to 126 million now. In contrast, look at the US population in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020... (1990) 250 million, (2000) 280 million, (2010) 309 million, (2020) 331 million. Population is a big factor for GDP and the US as a high income country saw a rather massive increase of population while Japan's population size did not really increase in the same time period.

Another reason is because behind Japan came other countries rising that did the same thing to Japanese companies that Japanese companies did to the US companies; low wage meaning cheaper product.Emerging South Korea under cut much of what was Japanese sphere because South Korea was still a developing economy and undercut Japanese products in electronics, ship building, and to a lesser extent cars. During the 1980s, Japanese companies didn't have low wage competition.


The bulk of the ODA was sent when the yen was already strong.

plaza accord fckd up Japanese economy,american shills are so desperate to vindicate US wrecking japanese economy and justifying nukes experiment on civilians.

Reminds me of this lol:
View attachment 783093

He only mentioned fact-based evidence,you and fellow atrocity propagandist have nothing but personal attack and trolling against that.

 

[REhorror]

I think Japan used to fear China when Abe was in charge, now with PM Fumio Kishida on the helm, it's been a little different.

 

[Stranagor]

So a fucking weaboo. **** my life man if he was actually Japanese I’d have enough respect to debate with him, knowing that he’s just some basement weaboo creep, my skin just crawls being in the same room with these losers.

Exactly. Not a creature to take seriously.