Japan's economy to grind to a halt in 2nd quarter: JPMorgan

[Spectre]

I am in the camp that Abe should have started this early on as well. My guess is that he delayed long enough to secure the agreement(s) with ally party, Komeito, in order to secure a victory in the Diet regarding the Collective Self Defense Mandate. The union between LDP and Komeito was necessary to pass the bill. Plus, Abe had to delay long enough to sort out an agreement with Kuroda and other key members of the BOJ to agree with his QE late last year.

Again, i credit this to the shrewd politicking of Abe Sensei. All this while touring the world to boost Japanese image abroad and to reinforce our interests and pledges in South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Pacific States, South America, European Union, NATO, United States and South America, Africa.

In the end, my friend @Spectre --- its about leveraging your resources. Abe did this, and had to consider all factors.

Next: Passing the TPP.

I hope Abe is successful, there are lot of lobbies working against him. TPP and collective self defense are essential for safeguarding long term Japanese interests.

 

[Aepsilons]

I hope Abe is successful, there are lot of lobbies working against him. TPP and collective self defense are essential for safeguarding long term Japanese interests.

Yes, there are.

 

[grand]

Flawed economics.

The debt which is simply savings of Japanese people is increasingly being invested in countries like India at 10-13% p.a. interest rates.India with it's close to 500 Billion USD reserves will never default so in effect the lending is risk free. A return of 10-13% with zero risk would then go into paying interest to Japanese savings which commands a considerable less interest.

Japanese infrastructure is developed, there is no need for enormous govt spending in building supply side capacities like China has been doing. Hence the Govt Spending inside Japan can be lower and can be invested overseas.

i dont know what you are talking about.

japan's problem is overborrowing and overspending. the government should cut spending and borrowing. but doing the right thing will be unpopular with the voters and is political suicide. what abe is doing is "lets print more money, lets borrow more money, lets spend more money, " to solve an overspending, overborrowing problem. to put it simply, abe's policy is to give an heroin addict more heroin instead of wene off the drugs. the addict will be high for a while but worse off than before.

im not very optimistic india in the foreseeable future. it is running twin deficit. the economy will face a lot of problems going forward.

 

[Spectre]

i dont know what you are talking about.

japan's problem is overborrowing and overspending. the government should cut spending and borrowing. but doing the right thing will be unpopular with the voters and is political suicide. what abe is doing is "lets print more money, lets borrow more money, lets spend more money, " to solve an overspending, overborrowing problem. to put it simply, abe's policy is to give an heroin addict more heroin instead of wene off the drugs. the addict will be high for a while but worse off than before.

im not very optimistic india in the foreseeable future. it is running twin deficit. the economy will face a lot of problems going forward.

If you don't know what I am talking about then I would leave it at that. I just hope the person i addressed my post to understands it.

Your point about over borrowing, over spending and easing is correct but in a most rudimentary way. The devil is in the details

1. Who is Japan borrowing from?
2. Where is the money being spend and in what proportions

Once you answer these two questions maybe you would understand my prior post

The drug addict analogy is frankly over used. I hope people would stop using pop-economics terms they have read about in some articles and understand it doesn't apply in every situation.

 

[grand]

If you don't know what I am talking about then I would leave it at that. I just hope the person i addressed my post to understands it.

Your point about over borrowing, over spending and easing is correct but in a most rudimentary way. The devil is in the details

1. Who is Japan borrowing from?
2. Where is the money being spend and in what proportions

Once you answer these two questions maybe you would understand my prior post

The drug addict analogy is frankly over used. I hope people would using pop-economics terms and understand it doesn't apply in every situation.

not borrow from foreigners doesnt make everything ok. money doesnt come out of thin air, it has to come from somewhere. public spending is where the money is going mostly. granted japan is still one of the largest creditors, the result is the same. though as i said, japan is in better position than the us.

whatever you say, money printing has never worked in history. it fails every time.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

I see a lot of Schadenfreude here among Chinese members.

It is a fact that China has a per capita income significantly lower than that of Japan. Also, Japanese companies are still very good at some core technologies. Sony and Sharp are among best at LCD Panels and Image Sensors. Japan has exceptional robotics firms.

There is no use comparing China with Japan.

China is bigger than 10 Japans, and have almost always been. It has always been far more diverse, more cosmopolitan, more accepting of other cultures.

What China should focus on is competing with Japan and all other countries in per capita terms, and learn from their mistakes. Japan is literally dieing, and its population will continue to decrease. Of course it is capable of reversing that by population injection via Immigration. But China, with its large scale, will not have that luxury. And Chinese demographics are really bad!

 

[Audio]

@Nihonjin1051

This thread is a price for your worrisome posts in Chinese related economy threads. Gotta love the thought process that goes into this. One of the reasons i still frequent this place.

 

[Aepsilons]

@Nihonjin1051

This thread is a price for your worrisome posts in Chinese related economy threads. Gotta love the thought process that goes into this. One of the reasons i still frequent this place.

LOL!

I noticed that, it was a 'payback' by our lovely Zhongguoren friends. ^__^

 

[sword1947]

Japan's economy is growing at 3.9% just this 1st quarter, and its mobilizing even further, stronger for 2nd quarter.

I think I'm okay with Japan, as an advanced and super-developed country with the average Japanese earning well above $37k (USD) ---- and the nation growing at a healthy 3.9% rate.

Not bad. Not bad at all for a nation of over 128 million.

Addendum: As a super developed nation, Japan's target growth rate of at least 1.5 to 2 % per annum is benchmark.

Other under-developed nations should take note. And before they even talk about us, at least hit our per capita level and development status.

At least when Japan hit the bubble , our GDP per capita was one of the highest in the world, as well as the Japanese economy one of the largest. This has remained the reality even now.

we talk about your second quarter.

 

[Economic superpower]

Sure, Japan can pretend it is still relevant. And everyone can pretend to believe it.

 

[TaiShang]

we talk about your second quarter.

Definitely not a pretty picture. What is worse, probably, is that Mr. Abe may not have much policy leverage. As I said, it is rock and he hard place. Nonetheless, Japan has the advantage of being an already advanced economy. So, social repercussions won't easily be noticed. For developing countries, the impact might be noticed more quickly.

 

[Aepsilons]

Yoiish

 

[TaiShang]

Good at times, not so good at times.

Japan June flash manufacturing PMI falls as new orders dip - Business Insider

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturing activity contracted slightly in June as new orders fell and output growth slowed in a sign the economy may have lost some momentum.

The Markit/JMMA flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 49.9 in June from a final 50.9 in May.



Read more: Japan June flash manufacturing PMI falls as new orders dip - Business Insider

 

[powastick]

Could trigger another stock market sell off this monday.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Sure, Japan can pretend it is still relevant. And everyone can pretend to believe it.

Japan is the third largest economy on Earth.

It is among the top 5 trading nations, and has quite a bit of world renowned companies.

It is still the 3rd/4th largest patent filer in the world.

Its home grown scientists win Nobles.

Apart from China and Korea, it largely has good relations with all countries.

It has the third largest R&D budget in the world.

It is still the only Asian (non-resource based) country that has made it in the rich league. A member of G7.

The sophistication of its technology base is also very very high.

What do you mean by Japan is not relevant?

Or for you, apart from China and US everyone is irrelevant?