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Japan's Economic Growth Fizzles Out In Second Quarter

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Last Updated: August 15, 2016 07:46 (IST)

japan-economy_625x350_71463549018.jpg

Tokyo: Japan's economy stagnated in the second quarter, data showed Monday, falling below expectations and rekindling worries about the government's faltering bid to stoke a recovery.

Growth in the world's third largest economy was flat at 0.0 percent quarter-on-quarter, missing economists' predictions for a 0.2 percent expansion in the April-June period as weak exports and a fall in business spending held back activity.

On an annualised basis, the economy expanded by a slight 0.2 percent, well off expectations for 0.7 percent growth.

The economy grew 0.5 percent in the first quarter -- 1.9 percent annualised -- after a contraction in the last three months of 2015.

Monday's weak figures come as Japanese officials face growing pressure to deliver and economists increasingly write off Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's stumbling efforts to drive a recovery, dubbed Abenomics.

Recent government figures have done little to soothe those worries.

Inflation dropped for a fourth straight month in June, delivering a fresh blow to Abe's war on deflation.

Business confidence has slumped to levels last seen when Abe swept to power in late 2012 on a ticket to fire up an economy beset by years of falling prices and weak growth.

Japan's government recently announced a whopping 28 trillion yen ($276 billion) package aimed at kickstarting growth.

The fiscal package, which included infrastructure spending and efforts to raise the birthrate, was the latest in a series in recent years.

The second quarter drop in business spending comes as a sharp rally in the yen threatens corporate Japan's bottom line -- aggravating concerns about growth.

Investors tend to buy Japan's currency as a safe bet in times of turmoil or uncertainty.

But it makes its exporters less competitive overseas and hits profits at Japan Inc.

The problem was highlighted recently as many of the county's best-known firms, including Sony and Toyota, reported lower profits in the three months to June.

Spend-for-growth

Abe's plan -- a mix of massive monetary easing, government spending and red-tape slashing -- initially brought the yen down from record highs and set off a stock market rally.

But promises to cut through red tape have been slower, and Abe's plan to buoy Japan's once-booming economy have looked increasingly unrealistic.

Japan's spend-for-growth policies have set it apart from some of its rich nation counterparts, including Germany which has been reluctant to endorse them, seeing it as an ineffective way to stimulate the economy.

Abe reshuffled his cabinet in early August after easily winning upper house elections, and vowed to speed up his battle with deflation.

Key to that war is the Bank of Japan's massive monetary easing campaign, a cornerstone of Abenomics.

The central bank disappointed markets at its late July meeting when it opted to leave its 80 trillion yen annual bond-buying programme unchanged, amid worries that expanding the scheme could spark volatility in Japan's debt markets.

The BoJ also held off cutting interest rates deeper into negative territory, after banks hit back against the plan first announced in January.

Negative rates are meant to encourage lending to people and businesses by effectively charging banks to keep excess reserves in the BoJ's vaults.

But lenders have complained they are eating into their financial results.

The latest GDP results are likely to heap pressure on the BoJ to act when it meets next month, analysts said.

"Japan's economy stagnated in the second quarter," said Marcel Thieliant from research house Capital Economics.

"Adding in the deflationary impact of the stronger yen, underlying inflation should moderate further in coming months, increasing the pressure on the BoJ to provide more monetary easing."

2016/8/12 23:46:41

Flash estimate of the seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3 percent in the 19-country euro area, unchanged from the preliminary flash estimate at the end of last month, Eurostat said on Friday.

th
 
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Japan's growthstory is long over. A brief success has given the japanese establishment a massive superiority complex which has done nothing but hurt them. It is high time for Japan to embrace China's rise. A Japan-China-South Korea alliance would be most beneficial for Asia and the world in general. An EU type of free-movement in the block would help Japan fight off it's aging population. But for that Japan needs to cooperate with China and shut down american base.
 
Last edited:
Last Updated: August 15, 2016 07:46 (IST)

japan-economy_625x350_71463549018.jpg

Tokyo: Japan's economy stagnated in the second quarter, data showed Monday, falling below expectations and rekindling worries about the government's faltering bid to stoke a recovery.

Growth in the world's third largest economy was flat at 0.0 percent quarter-on-quarter, missing economists' predictions for a 0.2 percent expansion in the April-June period as weak exports and a fall in business spending held back activity.

On an annualised basis, the economy expanded by a slight 0.2 percent, well off expectations for 0.7 percent growth.

The economy grew 0.5 percent in the first quarter -- 1.9 percent annualised -- after a contraction in the last three months of 2015.

Monday's weak figures come as Japanese officials face growing pressure to deliver and economists increasingly write off Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's stumbling efforts to drive a recovery, dubbed Abenomics.

Recent government figures have done little to soothe those worries.

Inflation dropped for a fourth straight month in June, delivering a fresh blow to Abe's war on deflation.

Business confidence has slumped to levels last seen when Abe swept to power in late 2012 on a ticket to fire up an economy beset by years of falling prices and weak growth.

Japan's government recently announced a whopping 28 trillion yen ($276 billion) package aimed at kickstarting growth.

The fiscal package, which included infrastructure spending and efforts to raise the birthrate, was the latest in a series in recent years.

The second quarter drop in business spending comes as a sharp rally in the yen threatens corporate Japan's bottom line -- aggravating concerns about growth.

Investors tend to buy Japan's currency as a safe bet in times of turmoil or uncertainty.

But it makes its exporters less competitive overseas and hits profits at Japan Inc.

The problem was highlighted recently as many of the county's best-known firms, including Sony and Toyota, reported lower profits in the three months to June.

Spend-for-growth

Abe's plan -- a mix of massive monetary easing, government spending and red-tape slashing -- initially brought the yen down from record highs and set off a stock market rally.

But promises to cut through red tape have been slower, and Abe's plan to buoy Japan's once-booming economy have looked increasingly unrealistic.

Japan's spend-for-growth policies have set it apart from some of its rich nation counterparts, including Germany which has been reluctant to endorse them, seeing it as an ineffective way to stimulate the economy.

Abe reshuffled his cabinet in early August after easily winning upper house elections, and vowed to speed up his battle with deflation.

Key to that war is the Bank of Japan's massive monetary easing campaign, a cornerstone of Abenomics.

The central bank disappointed markets at its late July meeting when it opted to leave its 80 trillion yen annual bond-buying programme unchanged, amid worries that expanding the scheme could spark volatility in Japan's debt markets.

The BoJ also held off cutting interest rates deeper into negative territory, after banks hit back against the plan first announced in January.

Negative rates are meant to encourage lending to people and businesses by effectively charging banks to keep excess reserves in the BoJ's vaults.

But lenders have complained they are eating into their financial results.

The latest GDP results are likely to heap pressure on the BoJ to act when it meets next month, analysts said.

"Japan's economy stagnated in the second quarter," said Marcel Thieliant from research house Capital Economics.

"Adding in the deflationary impact of the stronger yen, underlying inflation should moderate further in coming months, increasing the pressure on the BoJ to provide more monetary easing."

2016/8/12 23:46:41

Flash estimate of the seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3 percent in the 19-country euro area, unchanged from the preliminary flash estimate at the end of last month, Eurostat said on Friday.

th

EU and the US are no different. Looks like China will continue to be the growth engine of the world.

**

Eurozone Q2 GDP growth confirmed at 0.3 pct
Source: Xinhua 2016-08-12 23:13:53


BRUSSELS, Aug. 12 (Xinhua) -- Flash estimate of the seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3 percent in the 19-country euro area, unchanged from the preliminary flash estimate at the end of last month, Eurostat said on Friday.

The figure has fallen back from 0.6 percent in the first quarter of the year while GDP of the European Union (EU) as a whole expanded by 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Germany, the largest economy in the single currency zone, revealed a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.4 percent increase, while Spain at 0.7 percent and the Netherlands at 0.6 percent.

However, France and Italy recorded zero growth.

Italy's stagnation was well below economists' forecasts of 0.2 percent growth and marked a slowdown of growth from the previous quarter at 0.3 percent.

It contributed to slowing growth for the eurozone as a whole.

Germany's statistics office said growth in Germany came mainly from higher exports and falling imports. But business investment declined with little sign to recover despite low interest rates.

Capital Economics chief European economist Jonathan Loynes had earlier forecasted the weak Italian and the French data, raised the prospect of a revising down to the eurozone GDP figure.

"Looking ahead, some survey indicators have perked up a bit so far in Q3. But with growth still likely to be sluggish in the coming quarters and inflation pressures very weak, the ECB still has more work to do," Loynes noted.

Analysts said the weaker growth was strengthening expectations that the ECB would take additional stimulus measures later this year.
 
EU and the US are no different. Looks like China will continue to be the growth engine of the world.

Germany, the largest economy in the single currency zone, revealed a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.4 percent increase, while Spain at 0.7 percent and the Netherlands at 0.6 percent.

However, France and Italy recorded zero growth.
.
Looking at these grim figures, China is better off trading with countries in SEA, South Asia, Oceania and Africa. In Africa, IIRC some countries such as Ethiopia is doing quite well.

South America is not doing well either.
 
Japanese, european and american citizens can thank their central banks for this. Bank of Japan is the biggest shareholder of 55 plus biggest jp companies. Same in eurozone and Feds in the US.

Instead of creating jobs and kickstarting the economy...these central banks have been busy creating money out of thin air and proppinng up the stockmarkets..which have no impact on ordinary citizen. Only the negative one as this 'new money' is actually debt that the citizen have to payback to the banks through taxes. In essence it is rising poverty and diminshing middle classes.

It boggels the mind to see this destructive QE cycle.

Regardless, the real growth is going to come from Asia pacific and later on from combined south asia and africa region.

Hopefully, the central banks there do not repeact the destructive money printing regimes.
 
The fiscal package, which included infrastructure spending and efforts to raise the birthrate, was the latest in a series in recent years.

@AndrewJin

Once you and Chinese Government realize how big of a mess you have made handling your demographics, you will also resort to such measures. Except they have had a poor track record of ever working.

If you are so damn against immigrants, you have all the more reason that your demographics holds up.

Japan Abe is the real fault. Japanese must kick him out of office.

Nah!

Issues of such magnitude as the whole economy are seldom affected by single individuals.

Japanese weakness is in these things:

1. Population.
It's population is shrinking

2. Already acheived stagnation
Once you are rich, it becomes very hard to grow richer; while the poor countries can easily catch up. The thing that is happening China, will be happening with India in 2030s. India will never grow at the pace of China, because we are not centrally planned. But by 2030, China will start to get anxious about Indian growth rates.

Looking at these grim figures, China is better off trading with countries in SEA, South Asia, Oceania and Africa. In Africa, IIRC some countries such as Ethiopia is doing quite well.

Lol. Growth Rates are important, but not the only thing.

US, Europe, and Japan comprise half of the world's GDP, and markets. You can't simply escape them.
 
EU and the US are no different. Looks like China will continue to be the growth engine of the world.

**

Eurozone Q2 GDP growth confirmed at 0.3 pct
Source: Xinhua 2016-08-12 23:13:53


BRUSSELS, Aug. 12 (Xinhua) -- Flash estimate of the seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3 percent in the 19-country euro area, unchanged from the preliminary flash estimate at the end of last month, Eurostat said on Friday.

The figure has fallen back from 0.6 percent in the first quarter of the year while GDP of the European Union (EU) as a whole expanded by 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Germany, the largest economy in the single currency zone, revealed a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.4 percent increase, while Spain at 0.7 percent and the Netherlands at 0.6 percent.

However, France and Italy recorded zero growth.

Italy's stagnation was well below economists' forecasts of 0.2 percent growth and marked a slowdown of growth from the previous quarter at 0.3 percent.

It contributed to slowing growth for the eurozone as a whole.

Germany's statistics office said growth in Germany came mainly from higher exports and falling imports. But business investment declined with little sign to recover despite low interest rates.

Capital Economics chief European economist Jonathan Loynes had earlier forecasted the weak Italian and the French data, raised the prospect of a revising down to the eurozone GDP figure.

"Looking ahead, some survey indicators have perked up a bit so far in Q3. But with growth still likely to be sluggish in the coming quarters and inflation pressures very weak, the ECB still has more work to do," Loynes noted.

Analysts said the weaker growth was strengthening expectations that the ECB would take additional stimulus measures later this year.


It is called the era of secular stagnation.

Why?

Because populations around the world have stopped increasing.

Through out last 400 years, productivity per capita has improved by say 1-2 percent.

But the population grew at 2-4 per cent, making up for pretty good economic growth.

But now, in developed world, the productivity may be increasing at 1 per cent, but their population is steady or declining, thus giving pause on economic growth.

Without Indians like you living in denial. We wouldnt even need to worry in 2099 about India economy threat. :lol:

Well, right now Chinese members here are eeringly similar to Japanese in 1980s.

During 1980s, Japanese were full of conceit, and ill-founded supremacy. They thought that they only had to compete against United States. They thought very low of Chinese, and considered Chinese to be doomed to poverty, that they would never be able to progress.

This is the issue with Chinese members these days.

Humans are all capable of basically equal productivity.

Indian productivity rates have been growing at around 4-5% for the last 20 years. They will continue to do so till 2030, because there is a lot of scope for catch up.
 
It is called the era of secular stagnation.

Why?

Because populations around the world have stopped increasing.

Through out last 400 years, productivity per capita has improved by say 1-2 percent.

But the population grew at 2-4 per cent, making up for pretty good economic growth.

But now, in developed world, the productivity may be increasing at 1 per cent, but their population is steady or declining, thus giving pause on economic growth.



Well, right now Chinese members here are eeringly similar to Japanese in 1980s.

During 1980s, Japanese were full of conceit, and ill-founded supremacy. They thought that they only had to compete against United States. They thought very low of Chinese, and considered Chinese to be doomed to poverty, that they would never be able to progress.

This is the issue with Chinese members these days.

Humans are all capable of basically equal productivity.

Indian productivity rates have been growing at around 4-5% for the last 20 years. They will continue to do so till 2030, because there is a lot of scope for catch up.

Comparing Japan to China is a big mistake. Indian is the worst kind. They haven even achieved anything and already thinking they have achieved alot. India will never reach the status they wanted to. Dreaming too hard and never work hard is always the motto of Indians :enjoy:
 
Comparing Japan to China is a big mistake. Indian is the worst kind. They haven even achieved anything and already thinking they have achieved alot. India will never reach the status they wanted to. Dreaming too hard and never work hard is always the motto of Indians :enjoy:

The same thing was said by the Japanese in the 80s and 90s.

You realize that China was called the "sick man of Asia"?

It was so, because China seemed to be totally incapable of progressing at that time.

Condemning a whole country to a life of mediocrity is almost always, and is certainly here, out of contempt, chauvinism, and out right ignorance.
 
The same thing was said by the Japanese in the 80s and 90s.

You realize that China was called the "sick man of Asia"?

It was so, because China seemed to be totally incapable of progressing at that time.

Condemning a whole country to a life of mediocrity is almost always, and is certainly here, out of contempt, chauvinism, and out right ignorance.

http://articles.economictimes.india...s/28389376_1_space-programme-kalam-superpower

Non of China important head figure will have such wild and overestimate prediction.

http://zeenews.india.com/news/india...western-arms-contractors-worried_1878908.html

Again! Indian over ambitions and wildful yield for world success and recognition is once again demonstrated by your media mentality which represent most of Indian craving of unrealistic ambitions.

To put it simple word, it is called bragging.

I am not generalizing Indian by just few individual or incident but over a long period of time and numerous wild article and mentality general by Indians. Especially many are head of state of India.
 
http://articles.economictimes.india...s/28389376_1_space-programme-kalam-superpower

Non of China important head figure will have such wild and overestimate prediction.

http://zeenews.india.com/news/india...western-arms-contractors-worried_1878908.html

Again! Indian over ambitions and wildful yield for world success and recognition is once again demonstrated by your media mentality which represent most of Indian craving of unrealistic ambitions.

To put it simple word, it is called bragging.

I am not generalizing Indian by just few individual or incident but over a long period of time and numerous wild article and mentality general by Indians. Especially many are head of state of India.

As I said, nations can and do change.

During Great Leap Forward, Mao said that China will overtake US in steel production in some time. Nothing happened though.

Yes, I accept that my country is very weak in policy making. But things change.

And anyways, as I said, even if the Indian Government does nothing, the people will be able to still lift themselves up at 4-5% growth rate for many decades to come.
 
Japan doesn't need economic growth.
It is already a fully developed and 100% stable nation.
 
As I said, nations can and do change.

During Great Leap Forward, Mao said that China will overtake US in steel production in some time. Nothing happened though.

Yes, I accept that my country is very weak in policy making. But things change.

And anyways, as I said, even if the Indian Government does nothing, the people will be able to still lift themselves up at 4-5% growth rate for many decades to come.
Mao never say China will be world beater superpower unlike your unrealistic Indian president with such wildful thinking. And now in 2016 a modern times, such naive thinking still persist with Indian. The amount of bragging generate by Indians on India now is unparalleled in history.

Japan doesn't need economic growth.
It is already a fully developed and 100% stable nation.

:lol: Another joker comment from Indians. Japan can continue stay there while China will move forward.

Japan used to be leaders of Asia in technology and economy but as what this fellow Indian says. Japan is lacking almost all areas behind China :enjoy:
 
Mao never say China will be world beater superpower unlike your unrealistic Indian president with such wildful thinking. And now in 2016 a modern times, such naive thinking still persist with Indian. The amount of bragging generate by Indians on India now is unparalleled in history.

Also, Mao was pretty unrealistic about everything. None of Mao era economic policies ever worked.

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Great_Leap_Forward#/Surpass_the_UK_and_US

Japan is lacking almost all areas behind China

Nah. Japan leads China in automobiles and its supply chain, in robotics, in chemicals, in cameras and sensors, in battery technology, etc.

This is the problem with Chinese fanboys these days. That they have grown blind to reality.

China only started progressing when Deng Xiaoping came in and removed blindfolds from Chinese eyes. It seems after 3 decades of success, China is trying to blindfold itself again, out of its arrogance.
 

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