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Japan’s China Row May Spur GDP Fall This Quarter, JPMorgan Says

Remember, China has not officially used any sort of economic sanction against Japan yet. All these drops in Japanese business in China are due to people voluntarily boycotting Japanese products. We have the power to throw Japanese economy under the bus if we choose to, if they provoke us enough.
 
Yes China hasn't officially announced economic sanctions yet at the moment. The real trade war will have a stronger impact and they will feel it deep into their bones when that happens.
 
Japan‘s nominal GDP is likely to contract some 5% from Q3 2012 to Q2 2013.
 
Faced with a rising China, Russia's 'pivot' to Asia, and challenges with North and South Korea, Japan may need to reboot its Foreign Policy.


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S Korean President Lee Myung-bak, Chinese President and Party chief Hu Jintao and Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda


Officials in Tokyo have known for some time that Japan’s regional foreign policy needs to be revamped. The economic crisis has brought Japan’s export giants to their knees and forced the country’s economy to look at different ways of conducting business. Moreover, the nuclear crisis in Fukushima last spring further intensified Japan’s already acute energy security dilemmas. The dynamic security environment in Northeast Asia has not helped Japan’s footing either. Tokyo sees itself virtually surrounded by geopolitical challenges on all sides, including territorial disputes with China, South Korea and Russia and the consistent challenges it faces from an unpredictable regime in Pyongyang.

But all is not doom and gloom. Japan surely faces tough choices in how it conducts its foreign policy, but so do other states in the region. China needs to balance its regional ambitions with the strategic reality that primacy will not be voluntarily relinquished by Washington, Tokyo, Moscow or Seoul. South Korea also charts an uncertain course. Despite weathering the economic crisis better than Japan, South Korea is still vulnerable to the financial risks brought on by high household debt and the enhanced competition it faces since signing a series of free trade agreements. On the security front, Seoul continues to stare down a volatile cadre of military leaders in Pyongyang that have arguably accumulated even more power since Kim Jong-il’s death. Similarly, Russia, despite its “Pacific moment” this year at the Vladivostok APEC Summit, will need to considerably recalibrate its approach to the region if it wants to sufficiently benefit from its claims as an Asian superpower.

It is not too late for a proactive Japanese foreign policy in Asia. Tokyo needs to leverage the capital that it has already accrued amongst states in the region to regain some of its lost prestige.

One of the most obvious ways Japan can do this is through making the tough decisions that earmark its entry into the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). This is a move championed by industrial heavyweights such as Toyota, Toshiba and Mitsubishi, but fiercely opposed by lobbyists representing Japanese farmers who fear – with good reason – that the TPP will effectively eliminate their competitive advantage at home by ending exorbitant tariffs on agricultural imports. It may be political suicide for Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to completely abandon the farmers – especially considering it was their area that was most affected by the tsunami and earthquake last year. This caveat notwithstanding, it is imperative that Noda impress upon the agricultural block – which makes up merely 1.4% of Japan’s GDP – that the country’s economic survival is at stake.

The TPP is not an economic vaccine though. Japan’s economic engagement with Asia needs to complement this with a focus on expanding its footprint with bilateral trade agreements. Tokyo has taken a proactive approach in this area in recent years, inking Economic Partnership Agreements with India, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brunei and the Philippines. Japan must now speed-up the pace of current EPA negotiations with regional heavyweights South Korea and Australia. It remains imperative that Tokyo not lose sight of the strategic importance of the former in light of recent sparring over the disputed Dokdo/Takeshima islets.

Japan’s presence in the region’s key multilateral institutions such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) is another vehicle that should continue to drive Tokyo’s foreign policy. Japan has a perfect opportunity to articulate its role during Indonesia’s hosting of APEC next year which would allow leaders in Tokyo to leverage APEC’s temporary congruence with ASEAN and the EAS – which are also housed in Jakarta.

While Japan’s economic challenges in a dynamic Asia-Pacific are considerable, there are also significant political hurdles that its leaders can address through enhanced regional diplomacy. It has been a tough year for Japan’s security establishment, which has been ill-prepared to adequately manage its territorial disputes with China, South Korea and Russia. China has reemerged as the dominant strategic power among states in Northeast Asia. Beijing’s primacy in the region, while still at least a decade away, has only been challenged thus far by the United States. The situation is a bit more nuanced with regard to Russia and South Korea. Both countries have advanced considerably over the past decade but still suffer from a lack of strategic depth in Asia. Russia realizes that the continent is changing and it leaders know must react quickly or risk being left out. Seoul on the other hand has a security policy – focused on North Korea – which limits it ability to free up resources for a stronger economic push into Asia.

Despite these formidable challenges, both Russia and South Korea have seized the opening provided by an assertive Chinese foreign policy to pressure Japan with unprecedented measures on their territorial disputes. Essentially, both states have exploited Chinese actions for their benefit and are engaged in tacit “free riding” on the heels of Beijing. Why are Russia and South Korea taking this approach? It seems that Seoul and Moscow have made a calculated gamble that Japan will buckle or – at the very least – make concessions as a result of the overwhelming pressure from its neighbors. Good relations with Japan are too important to South Korea and Russia for them to confront Tokyo directly. As a result, both states have opted to shield their provocations under the scope of Chinese policy and the dynamic power architecture in Northeast Asia.

full story: Trouble for Tokyo: Japan's Foreign Policy Challenges - The Diplomat
 
Sorry Japan, this isn't the glory days anymore. Japan is an American guard dog in Asia. Japanese doesn't even consider themselves Asian. I am glad Japan role is diminishing. When Japan was the second largest economy, it does little in terms of integrating with their Asian neighbors.
 
Breaking news: Toyota recalls U.S. Priuses in 2.77M global recall


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Toyota's own faulty specifications led to Wednesday's recall of 670,000 older Prius hybrids in the U.S. for potentially defective steering, the automaker acknowledges.

And about 350,000 of those same Priuses also were recalled Wednesday for water pumps that could cause the cars to stall.

The steering problem "is a design-related issue -- insufficient hardness on the specification," says Brian Lyons, Toyota's spokesman for safety issues in the U.S.

The two U.S. recalls are part of larger global actions for these problems that cover nearly 2.8 million vehicles of various models.

The U.S. actions cover all second-generation Priuses built from August 2003 through Mar. 30, 2009. The latest version of Prius isn't affected, Toyota says.

Toyota says it has no reports of accidents or injuries due to the problems. But the news is embarrassing because Prius is an icon, standing for the company's technical expertise.

The Wednesday recalls come just a month after Toyota recalled 7.4 million cars globally -- including 2.5 million in the U.S. -- for power-window switches that could catch fire if incorrectly lubricated.

The actions also are an uncomfortable reminder that Toyota had to recall some 5 million cars in the U.S. beginning in 2009 -- and more than 14 million worldwide, according the Associated Press -- for sticky gas pedals and floor mats that could jam accelerators. Those recalls followed complaints and crashes, some fatal.

Toyota acknowledged back then, too, that with regard to the stick pedals that some potentially faulty accelerator pedal mechanisms were, in fact, built to its specifications. Toyota changed the design to prevent future problems.

A recall can tarnish a company's image, but isn't always a lingering problem.
"I don't necessarily see this as a negative thing," says Edmunds.com analyst Jessica Caldwell. "After 2010, we demanded Toyota be transparent and proactive in recalling vehicles and now they are -- along with most other manufacturers. In terms of perception, the long-run benefits of a commitment to safety and quality will outweigh any short term backlash."

The steering component involved in the Wednesday action, called an intermediate shaft, is supplied by two different companies. Japan-based Jtekt made the questionable shafts, though not all from that maker are faulty, Lyons says.

"One supplier built above-and-beyond, one (Jtekt) built right to the specification," he says. Normal manufacturing variations and tolerances, though typically small, mean some Jtekt units were below the already iffy Toyota specification, while others were OK.

The design has since been changed, and no current-generation Priuses -- beginning with the 2010 model year -- are affected, Lyons says,

Splines, or ridges, on the insufficiently hard steering shafts can wear and deform, causing noisy steering and in extreme situations -- such as holding the steering wheel completely to the right or left, as in a tight parking spot -- the car can feel as if it has lost steering, Lyons says.

But the shaft doesn't break, and the steering continues to work despite the defect, he says.

The steering parts all were made prior to when Toyota's top executive, Akio Toyoda -- testifying before the U.S. Congress in February 2010 in the wake of the unintended acceleration recalls -- said that the automaker had lost its way and let quality slip as it tried to get too big too fast. The company would reestablish safety as a higher priority than sales, Toyoda said then.

The separate recall Wednesday involves possibly defective water pumps on 350,000 of the Priuses also being recalled for the steering issue.

The pumps circulate water to cool the hybrid system and batteries. If the cooling fails, the "check engine" light illuminates and, in the worst cases, the entire powertrain shuts to avoid overheating the hybrid system, and the car stalls.

In the problem pumps, faulty electrical wiring can corrode, causing more resistance in the circuit, triggering the dashboard light or potentially blowing a fuse.

Owners will be officially notified by Toyota starting next month. In the steering recall, Toyota dealers will inspect the shaft and replace it if needed. The inspection and repair will take about an hour. For the cooling recall, dealers will replace the hybrid system's water pump, a job that Toyota says takes about two hours.

Approximately 350,000 of these same Prius vehicles are also being recalled to replace the electric water pump for the hybrid system.

In the hybrid system, there is an electrically driven water pump that circulates coolant through the hybrid components to provide cooling. There is a possibility that the electric motor installed in the water pump may stop functioning, leading to illumination of various warning lights in the instrument panel. In limited instances, the electric power supply circuit fuse may open, causing the hybrid system to stop while the vehicle is being driven.

Toyota dealers will replace the electric water pump for the hybrid system. The repair will take approximately two hours depending on the dealer's work schedule.

In addition to Prius, the remaining vehicles in the recalls involve models or versions of models solld overseas, including the Wish, Corolla (including Run-X, Fielder and Spacio variants), Isis, Allex and Will VS.

Toyota recalls U.S. Priuses in 2.77M global recall


This could runs into billions of dollars.
 
Remember, China has not officially used any sort of economic sanction against Japan yet. All these drops in Japanese business in China are due to people voluntarily boycotting Japanese products. We have the power to throw Japanese economy under the bus if we choose to, if they provoke us enough.

wth you on about if japanese never invested and gave your people jobs you would still be thirld world country.
 
Chinese forget how much Japan helped China by investing, to help production giving jobs to Chinese which helped China.
 
Chinese forget how much Japan helped China by investing, to help production giving jobs to Chinese which helped China.


You sound so sure on your assessment, perhaps, people would believe you more if you can back it up with some kind of numbers.
 
You sound so sure on your assessment, perhaps, people would believe you more if you can back it up with some kind of numbers.

I don't its common logic, you probably know more seeing you follow China closely, tell me how many factories Japanese companies have in China, I bet massive firms like Toyota, Panasonic, Sony etc have stores factories etc which I even heard after the boycotts which shows there's actually alot of Japanese investment.
 
wth you on about if japanese never invested and gave your people jobs you would still be thirld world country.

China was plagued by foreign invasions dumbass, China was certainly not a 3rd world country and even richer than your slums. You have no idea what those foreign countries did to China and how they ruined the country. Then there are the Japs who made a strong impact on China during the first sino-japanese and WW2. By re-establishing relations they did provide work and investment but to me it's a way to repay for the crimes and the suffering Chinese people had to go through. Should Chinese people be that grateful to them for trying to destroy China? Don't tell me the Japanese didn't had any benefit by investing into China. They have no remorse for the attrocities, can't apologize properly and want to steal the Chinese territory with the illegal purchase. What right does a Turk have to criticize Chinese hatred towards the Japanese? Why support Japan in this case is it because your country have one thing in common: GENOCIDE?
 
I don't its common logic, you probably know more seeing you follow China closely, tell me how many factories Japanese companies have in China, I bet massive firms like Toyota, Panasonic, Sony etc have stores factories etc which I even heard after the boycotts which shows there's actually alot of Japanese investment.


You made the claim that China would be a third world dump without Japanese companies' investments, so the onus is on you to show what are the impacts on their investments. You can use dollar invested or job creations by them and compare to, let say, a small city like Hong Kong. Maybe you can convert a novice like me to believe without Japan China will return to 3rd world status.
 
China was plagued by foreign invasions dumbass, China was certainly not a 3rd world country and even richer than your slums. You have no idea what those foreign countries did to China and how they ruined the country. Then there are the Japs who made a strong impact on China during the first sino-japanese and WW2. By re-establishing relations they did provide work and investment but to me it's a way to repay for the crimes and the suffering Chinese people had to go through. Should Chinese people be that grateful to them for trying to destroy China? Don't tell me the Japanese didn't had any benefit by investing into China. They have no remorse for the attrocities, can't apologize properly and want to steal the Chinese territory with the illegal purchase. What right does a Turk have to criticize Chinese hatred towards the Japanese? Why support Japan in this case is it because your country have one thing in common: GENOCIDE?

Lool let's clear somethings

1. Your quote---- China was certainly not a 3rd world country and even richer than your slums. - - - show me a slum in Turkiye? I have never seen a slum. You mixing us up with some African or poor country? I have never seen a slum myself you would know better because you must be used to it. I never said Japanese were angels of the world, they did do bad things but today they don't seem in any way aggressive people. I will write more detailed later but I wanted to say one thing which is my word - 10 years ago when China was poor i never seen any nationalists like this they was quite now getting more developed and stronger rise of nationalism if you loved your country you have to be same all the time like us. - - - - you shouldn't have let Japan do them, they are much smaller population than you even in them times plus in them days manpower was very important as there was a lot of charging bayonets etc compared to today's technology.
 

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