Japan offers to fund 81% of India's first bullet train worth $15 billion

[CrazyEagle9]

Delhi-Ahemdabad-Mumbai sounds better.

It is very difficult to complete a corridor in one go. Eventually it will be connected to Delhi in the future. It should be in a phase manner.

 

[Sankpal]

Mini start but good start.... bullet trains need to connect all metro cities in Indi

 

[anant_s]

Let me calculate the operational surplus this project need to generate per day.

Project cost 96000.

Japan FInance 81%=77760 crore.

Repayment to Japan due every year at 0.5% interest rate for 50 years

It is 1761.56 crore (Considering currency rate stable)

Per day operation surplus needed to repay loan to Japan= 4.83 crore.


FOr domestic repayment of 18240 corre at 9% for say 20 years.

1998 crore per year.

I.e 5.47 crore per day

So in total we need to generate Rs 10 crore surplus for first 20 years and 5 crore for next 30 years to repay the loan.

Not a very big amount. If we run 10 trains to and fro than we need a surplus of Rs 50 lakh per train trip.
We need to accommodate maximum number of people here and we may run a double decker to keep the rate in control.

Ok a bit of calculations i tried to do myself.
Here are the existing fares of air and superfast trains on Mumbai Ahmedabad sector
Air fare (economy class)

We can see average fare for anyone planning with a week to go are around INR 2,500-3,000 range. The average flight time is 1-1.15 hours, with check in times of 1 hour (Domestic flight) and another 30-45 minutes after landing, the value becomes 3 hours.

Now superfast trains (I'm using Shatabdi and Gujarat Mail, First AC Class for comparison).

So for a confirm ticket one has to pay around INR 2,000. The journey time varies from 5.30 to 8 hours.

Now comes question of feasibility.
Each car of an E5 series Shinkansen can carry 60-65 passengers. Assuming 6-7 car formation, every train would be carrying capacity of 400 passenger. With say a 90% average occupancy, each train will on an average carry about 350 passengers.
Now if the fare is kept about equal to Economy air ticket value of INR 3,000, we have a total revenue earning of INR 10,50,000.

Now if the system has to earn INR 5,00,00,000 (Five Crores a day), we will need about 50 services each day.
While it is an ambitious target, but as @Roybot has remarked, punctual services and reliability can actually attract passengers from economy class and First and Second AC travellers, especially the business travellers.

Seating Arrangement inside E6 series Shinkansen

 

[Perpendicular]

Ok a bit of calculations i tried to do myself.
Here are the existing fares of air and superfast trains on Mumbai Ahmedabad sector
Air fare (economy class)
View attachment 278974

We can see average fare for anyone planning with a week to go are around INR 2,500-3,000 range. The average flight time is 1-1.15 hours, with check in times of 1 hour (Domestic flight) and another 30-45 minutes after landing, the value becomes 3 hours.
View attachment 278976

Now superfast trains (I'm using Shatabdi and Gujarat Mail, First AC Class for comparison).View attachment 278972 View attachment 278973
So for a confirm ticket one has to pay around INR 2,000. The journey time varies from 5.30 to 8 hours.
View attachment 278975
Now comes question of feasibility.
Each car of an E5 series Shinkansen can carry 60-65 passengers. Assuming 6-7 car formation, every train would be carrying capacity of 400 passenger. With say a 90% average occupancy, each train will on an average carry about 350 passengers.
Now if the fare is kept about equal to Economy air ticket value of INR 3,000, we have a total revenue earning of INR 10,50,000.

Now if the system has to earn INR 5,00,00,000 (Five Crores a day), we will need about 50 services each day.
While it is an ambitious target, but as @Roybot has remarked, punctual services and reliability can actually attract passengers from economy class and First and Second AC travellers, especially the business travellers.

Seating Arrangement inside E6 series Shinkansen
View attachment 278979 View attachment 278980

Interesting.
For an example a ride of 2 hr from punjab to Delhi which is taking bloody 8 hr plus would definately will be a hit if priced between 3000 to 3500 Rs.

 

[anant_s]

Interesting.
For an example a ride of 2 hr from punjab to Delhi which is taking bloody 8 hr plus would definately will be a hit if priced between 3000 to 3500 Rs.

High Speed Rail Corporation of India Limited is already working on Delhi Chandigarh Amritsar route for 200-225 kph train services, so Punjab definitely is on map.

Vision 2020

The Indian Railways' VISION 2020 envisages the following on High Speed Corridors:
"India is unique and alone among the major countries of the world in not having a single high-speed rail corridor capable of running trains at speeds of over 250 kmph. High Speed corridors have played a major role in revitalization of Railways in Japan and Europe. Of late, high speed-rail networks are also getting built in China, Taiwan, and USA. Indian Railways would follow a two-pronged approach in this respect. The first approach would be to raise the speed of segregated passenger corridors on trunk routes using conventional technology to 160 to 200 kmph. The second approach would be to identify a number of intercity routes, depending on viability, and build state-of-the-art high-speed corridors for speeds up to 350 kmph through on PPP mode in partnerships with the State Governments. Partnerships with the State Governments would be crucial as real-estate development would be a key element of viability of these high-cost projects. By 2020, at least four corridors of 2000 kms would be developed and planning for 8 other corridors would be in different stages of progress."

Welcome to HSRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

India’s first bullet train corridor may be world’s cheapest high-speed service
The corridor is expected to have around 10 stations, and is supposed to cost Rs 98,000 crore.


By keeping the fares low, the bullet train will be able to steer clear of a fare war with airlines, while also retaining the existing business of higher-class railway travel.
India’s first bullet train corridor, between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, could turn out to be the cheapest high-speed train service in the world.

The Japanese team working on its feasibility study has worked out its “fare box revenue” model, according to which the bullet train fare will be just one-and-a-half times more than the AC-I fares of other trains on the same route.

According to this model, the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train fare works out to about Rs 2,800, calculated on the basis of the current AC-I train fare of Rs 1,895. Currently, trains on this route take about eight hours for the 534-km journey. The bullet train is expected to take less than two hours.
Japan’s Tohoku Shinkansen (Hayabusa trains) charges about Rs 8,000 for a 713-km ride on the Tokyo-Shin-Aomori sector. A second class ticket on China’s Jinghu High Speed Railway for the Beijing-Shanghai route costs over Rs 5,000.

In India, initial estimates a few years ago had pegged the fare for this corridor to be in the same range. Officials, however, said the latest study of the possible fare model gives a more realistic picture.

The report is likely to be submitted to the Railways Ministry in July. The Japanese team carried out a survey of people travelling on the proposed corridor, asking them how much they would like to pay for a bullet train service with a speed of about 320 kmph. Apart from the complex mathematics of the fare box revenue model, the feedback obtained from the people was also factored in while calculating the likely fare, said sources.

As per the team’s estimates, about 40,000 people are going to use the corridor every day by 2023 — when the bullet train service is expected to begin. The AC-1 fares for this sector in 2023 would serve as the reference for the bullet train fares.

The study found that pricing the tickets any higher would make the flights a more attractive option, and any lower would not support the maximum revenue generation. By keeping the fares low, the bullet train will be able to steer clear of a fare war with airlines, while also retaining the existing business of higher-class railway travel.

The corridor is expected to have around 10 stations, and is supposed to cost Rs 98,000 crore, after factoring in inflation and taxes. Work on the corridor is expected to be completed about eight years after it is commissioned.
India’s first bullet train corridor may be world’s cheapest high-speed service | The Indian Express

 

[Perpendicular]

High Speed Rail Corporation of India Limited is already working on Delhi Chandigarh Amritsar route for 200-225 kph train services, so Punjab definitely is on map.
View attachment 278984
View attachment 278986

Vision 2020

The Indian Railways' VISION 2020 envisages the following on High Speed Corridors:
"India is unique and alone among the major countries of the world in not having a single high-speed rail corridor capable of running trains at speeds of over 250 kmph. High Speed corridors have played a major role in revitalization of Railways in Japan and Europe. Of late, high speed-rail networks are also getting built in China, Taiwan, and USA. Indian Railways would follow a two-pronged approach in this respect. The first approach would be to raise the speed of segregated passenger corridors on trunk routes using conventional technology to 160 to 200 kmph. The second approach would be to identify a number of intercity routes, depending on viability, and build state-of-the-art high-speed corridors for speeds up to 350 kmph through on PPP mode in partnerships with the State Governments. Partnerships with the State Governments would be crucial as real-estate development would be a key element of viability of these high-cost projects. By 2020, at least four corridors of 2000 kms would be developed and planning for 8 other corridors would be in different stages of progress."

Welcome to HSRC

View attachment 278987

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

India’s first bullet train corridor may be world’s cheapest high-speed service
The corridor is expected to have around 10 stations, and is supposed to cost Rs 98,000 crore.


By keeping the fares low, the bullet train will be able to steer clear of a fare war with airlines, while also retaining the existing business of higher-class railway travel.
India’s first bullet train corridor, between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, could turn out to be the cheapest high-speed train service in the world.

The Japanese team working on its feasibility study has worked out its “fare box revenue” model, according to which the bullet train fare will be just one-and-a-half times more than the AC-I fares of other trains on the same route.

According to this model, the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train fare works out to about Rs 2,800, calculated on the basis of the current AC-I train fare of Rs 1,895. Currently, trains on this route take about eight hours for the 534-km journey. The bullet train is expected to take less than two hours.
Japan’s Tohoku Shinkansen (Hayabusa trains) charges about Rs 8,000 for a 713-km ride on the Tokyo-Shin-Aomori sector. A second class ticket on China’s Jinghu High Speed Railway for the Beijing-Shanghai route costs over Rs 5,000.

In India, initial estimates a few years ago had pegged the fare for this corridor to be in the same range. Officials, however, said the latest study of the possible fare model gives a more realistic picture.

The report is likely to be submitted to the Railways Ministry in July. The Japanese team carried out a survey of people travelling on the proposed corridor, asking them how much they would like to pay for a bullet train service with a speed of about 320 kmph. Apart from the complex mathematics of the fare box revenue model, the feedback obtained from the people was also factored in while calculating the likely fare, said sources.

As per the team’s estimates, about 40,000 people are going to use the corridor every day by 2023 — when the bullet train service is expected to begin. The AC-1 fares for this sector in 2023 would serve as the reference for the bullet train fares.

The study found that pricing the tickets any higher would make the flights a more attractive option, and any lower would not support the maximum revenue generation. By keeping the fares low, the bullet train will be able to steer clear of a fare war with airlines, while also retaining the existing business of higher-class railway travel.

The corridor is expected to have around 10 stations, and is supposed to cost Rs 98,000 crore, after factoring in inflation and taxes. Work on the corridor is expected to be completed about eight years after it is commissioned.
India’s first bullet train corridor may be world’s cheapest high-speed service | The Indian Express

 

[cloud_9]

If the journey is being cut short from 8 hours to 2 hours, then yes. Most of these frequent travellers are traders and businessman and time is money for them. A couple of hundred extra bucks will hardly make any difference for them. Also that was an incredibly stupid thing to say, you wouldn't like it if you were stereotyped would u.

Pardon the ignorance....will the ticket really be a couple of hundred bucks extra and how on earth is the travel duration 2 hours? Someone has already posted a ball park figure of cost maybe someone can extend the calculations a bit further considering each trainset can carry a max of 750 passengers.

Beijing <> Tianjin & Shenzhen <> Guangzhou is 50 yuan for ~130 km ,Beijing <> Shanghai is ~500 yuan for ~ 1300 km ride and those tickets are subsidised.Can we make the tickets cheaper than the Chinese ?
Lets not forget airfare is Rs 1400 to Rs.2000 from AMD <> BOM and the travel duration.

It's Modi's Jangla Bus moment!




PS: I don't mind stereotypes because there is substance to it.

 

[Roybot]

Pardon the ignorance....will the ticket really be a couple of hundred bucks extra and how on earth is the travel duration 2 hours? Someone has already posted a ball park figure of cost maybe someone can extend the calculations a bit further considering each trainset can carry a max of 750 passengers.

Beijing <> Tianjin & Shenzhen <> Guangzhou is 50 yuan for ~130 km ,Beijing <> Shanghai is ~500 yuan for ~ 1300 km ride and those tickets are subsidised.Can we make the tickets cheaper than the Chinese ?
Lets not forget airfare is Rs 1400 to Rs.2000 from AMD <> BOM and the travel duration.

It's Modi's Jangla Bus moment!




PS: I don't mind stereotypes because there is substance to it.

Try buying a return airline ticket for tomorrow on the Mumbai-Ahmadabad sector and let me know how much it costs. The 1400- 2000 figure that you quoted can only be availed if you book at least a month in advance. If you need to travel in the next couple of days, Mumbai-Ahmadabad return flight would cost you no less than Rs 8000. Mind you this sector is not meant for tourists, where you can plan your travel 2-3 months in advance. The bulk of the traffic on this sector as I mentioned earlier, will be businessman and traders who need to travel regularly and on a short notice. Thats when the slightly expensive, but quick, reliable, comfortable and sure shot high speed rail service comes into the picture.

It is a huge $15 Billion project, and has only been the green signal after proper feasibility studies were conducted by both the parties. I don't think JICA or HSRC needs random nincompoops on the internet to tell them whether this project is economically feasible or not. The project once again, was initiated by the UPA government and has nothing to do with Modi or the BJP who has one only been in power for one year, so you can shove that anti Modi vitriol.

 

[GURU DUTT]

High Speed Rail Corporation of India Limited is already working on Delhi Chandigarh Amritsar route for 200-225 kph train services, so Punjab definitely is on map.
View attachment 278984
View attachment 278986

Vision 2020

The Indian Railways' VISION 2020 envisages the following on High Speed Corridors:
"India is unique and alone among the major countries of the world in not having a single high-speed rail corridor capable of running trains at speeds of over 250 kmph. High Speed corridors have played a major role in revitalization of Railways in Japan and Europe. Of late, high speed-rail networks are also getting built in China, Taiwan, and USA. Indian Railways would follow a two-pronged approach in this respect. The first approach would be to raise the speed of segregated passenger corridors on trunk routes using conventional technology to 160 to 200 kmph. The second approach would be to identify a number of intercity routes, depending on viability, and build state-of-the-art high-speed corridors for speeds up to 350 kmph through on PPP mode in partnerships with the State Governments. Partnerships with the State Governments would be crucial as real-estate development would be a key element of viability of these high-cost projects. By 2020, at least four corridors of 2000 kms would be developed and planning for 8 other corridors would be in different stages of progress."

Welcome to HSRC

View attachment 278987

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

India’s first bullet train corridor may be world’s cheapest high-speed service
The corridor is expected to have around 10 stations, and is supposed to cost Rs 98,000 crore.


By keeping the fares low, the bullet train will be able to steer clear of a fare war with airlines, while also retaining the existing business of higher-class railway travel.
India’s first bullet train corridor, between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, could turn out to be the cheapest high-speed train service in the world.

The Japanese team working on its feasibility study has worked out its “fare box revenue” model, according to which the bullet train fare will be just one-and-a-half times more than the AC-I fares of other trains on the same route.

According to this model, the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train fare works out to about Rs 2,800, calculated on the basis of the current AC-I train fare of Rs 1,895. Currently, trains on this route take about eight hours for the 534-km journey. The bullet train is expected to take less than two hours.
Japan’s Tohoku Shinkansen (Hayabusa trains) charges about Rs 8,000 for a 713-km ride on the Tokyo-Shin-Aomori sector. A second class ticket on China’s Jinghu High Speed Railway for the Beijing-Shanghai route costs over Rs 5,000.

In India, initial estimates a few years ago had pegged the fare for this corridor to be in the same range. Officials, however, said the latest study of the possible fare model gives a more realistic picture.

The report is likely to be submitted to the Railways Ministry in July. The Japanese team carried out a survey of people travelling on the proposed corridor, asking them how much they would like to pay for a bullet train service with a speed of about 320 kmph. Apart from the complex mathematics of the fare box revenue model, the feedback obtained from the people was also factored in while calculating the likely fare, said sources.

As per the team’s estimates, about 40,000 people are going to use the corridor every day by 2023 — when the bullet train service is expected to begin. The AC-1 fares for this sector in 2023 would serve as the reference for the bullet train fares.

The study found that pricing the tickets any higher would make the flights a more attractive option, and any lower would not support the maximum revenue generation. By keeping the fares low, the bullet train will be able to steer clear of a fare war with airlines, while also retaining the existing business of higher-class railway travel.

The corridor is expected to have around 10 stations, and is supposed to cost Rs 98,000 crore, after factoring in inflation and taxes. Work on the corridor is expected to be completed about eight years after it is commissioned.
India’s first bullet train corridor may be world’s cheapest high-speed service | The Indian Express

thats not all there are few more corridoors under considration banaglore -hydrabad- amrawati

https://defence.pk/threads/japan-of...more-at-http-econ.412922/page-5#ixzz3uCCzp9pR

 

[Abingdonboy]

I am not an expert in such topic but for me the offer looks very attractive. However when I look at China, how quickly she is building its high speed lines, which is more important than Train I realize countries like India and China have something common and unique thing which is POPULATION. Longest bullet train track in Europe is in Spain and that too 500 KM, and China though late starter is building at the rate of more than that per year, HOW ??

Ya Ya I know China is rich, more developed than India, Under communist leadership, but if you check, chinese Railway is building the track, stations, and electrification on Loans from its bank. The amount is mamoth, and would make the planner's head turned dizzy that the whole project is on loan and such a high stake, but how chinese are confident is that they knew that they will find the customer who will spend money on this train between the stations, and within 15 years all debt would be returned to bank with interest. Question is why not in India---- Does it is due to lack of technology --- Nope, In modern world through the Money and watch the show. Call the tender and watch the Line from Japan, germany, china, Spain, US

You can't compare China and India in such sweeping terms, yes the populations are equally mammoth but that's about where the similarities end. One simple can't cast aside the fact that China is a communist autocracy and India is pretty much the exact opposite where any tom, d*ck or harry can come in and disrupt a project for years at will. Do some research into all major infrastructure projects going on in India or having been completed in the past decade, the number one issue every single project team will attest was their biggest hurdle is land acqusition. If you were able to take away this issue (as China is) then all these mega projects would be expeditiously completed in India too. India has the capacity in the private sector to create world class infrastructure along the lines of China.

Addtionally, the other looming difference between India and China in this regard is that China used their infrastructure expansion as form of stimulus package for their economy leading to vast amounts of over capacity and so-called "ghost" infrastructure. In India many projects are conducted under a PPP model meaning there has to financial feasibilty to such projects- there simply is no way India's model would allow for the construction of 1000s of KMs of HSR all over the country without there being a legitimate expectation of returns being made- China has no such issues.

 

[anant_s]

You can't compare China and India in such sweeping terms, yes the populations are equally mammoth but that's about where the similarities end. One simple can't cast aside the fact that China is a communist autocracy and India is pretty much the exact opposite where any tom, d*ck or harry can come in and disrupt a project for years at will. Do some research into all major infrastructure projects going on in India or having been completed in the past decade, the number one issue every single project team will attest was their biggest hurdle is land acqusition. If you were able to take away this issue (as China is) then all these mega projects would be expeditiously completed in India too. India has the capacity in the private sector to create world class infrastructure along the lines of China.

Addtionally, the other looming difference between India and China in this regard is that China used their infrastructure expansion as form of stimulus package for their economy leading to vast amounts of over capacity and so-called "ghost" infrastructure. In India many projects are conducted under a PPP model meaning there has to financial feasibilty to such projects- there simply is no way India's model would allow for the construction of 1000s of KMs of HSR all over the country without there being a legitimate expectation of returns being made- China has no such issues.

China has rapidly advanced its HST network and today it has become an effective alternate to air travel.

One more thing that is important is how China has effectively separated its heavy haul freight, allowing not only faster movement of passenger trains but also rapid movement of freight.

Compared to this, owing to years of neglect and any substantial investment, railways in India has stagnated.

It is therefore important that this momentum being built up by present government should continue and constant investments be made in track upgradation, safety, traffic separation (like DFC), improvement in rolling stock and most importantly tariff rationalization.

 

[Abingdonboy]

China has rapidly advanced its HST network and today it has become an effective alternate to air travel.
View attachment 279041

One more thing that is important is how China has effectively separated its heavy haul freight, allowing not only faster movement of passenger trains but also rapid movement of freight.
View attachment 279046
Compared to this, owing to years of neglect and any substantial investment, railways in India has stagnated.
View attachment 279047
It is therefore important that this momentum being built up by present government should continue and constant investments be made in track upgradation, safety, traffic separation (like DFC), improvement in rolling stock and most importantly tariff rationalization.

Your last paragraph says it all sir, the positive signs are there, there just needs to be more movement in this direction.


+ According to some rumours 4 more DFCs will be funded in the next Railway buget (2016)

(all in blue should be sanctioned from 2016).

 

[anant_s]

According to some rumours 4 more DFCs will be funded in the enxt Railway buget (2016)

Preliminary work on the above mentioned corridors has already begun.

http://www.dfccil.gov.in/upload/DFCCI_Annual_Report_2013_2014.pdf

 

[Abingdonboy]

Preliminary work on the above mentioned corridors has already begun.
View attachment 279050
http://www.dfccil.gov.in/upload/DFCCI_Annual_Report_2013_2014.pdf

Indeed, they are all waiting for the green-light to begun land aqusistion and actual construction work- the groundwork has been laid.

 

[Tridibans]

Because I don't speculate as far as those imaginary Bullet trains stoppages furnished by you.
Do you know proposed bullet train's confirmed stops in between for sure?
I know you don't!
Even Modi does not!

You are silent on Anand stop factor now. But you mentioned it earlier to be one of the train stop.
Now you came back with a global reply with the key word = "cluster" and tweaked your post.

Those who speculate (speculation = reasoning based on inconclusive/vague clue/confirmation) without waiting for the facts to arrive always bear the brunt and you are not a single such example on this. You speculate, you pay for it one or the other way. Whether you buy stocks and burn your fingers or say sorry to someone for such.

May you show me where was I the first one who used any unparliamentary language?
If you think I am uncivilized, hey you had an option to ignore me without coming back for more ado.
But you did not.
Go and ignore me now.

Or let me reiterate = Move on.

Because I do not like people who piss on my feet and claim its raining.
If you want to be a credible & prudent poster, please be the beer and not the foam in the glass.

Comprende amigo?
Dont reply to this post sil vous plait.

You missed a simple thing. Flights need atleast 45 mins pre checkin.... so overall total time would be more or less same.