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Japan 'no longer rich country' by 2050: Think tank

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19 Apr, 2012, 01.35PM IST, AFP
Japan 'no longer rich country' by 2050: Think tank

Japan 'no longer rich country' by 2050: Think tank - The Economic Times

TOKYO: Japan could fall out of the league of developed nations by 2050 as a shrinking and greying population as well as slowing productivity make its economy contract, a think tank has warned.

The 21st Century Public Policy Institute said a dwindling workforce, caused by a chronic low birthrate, will combine with lower savings and shriveling investment to drag the once mighty economy down.

The think tank, linked to Japan's powerful Keidanren business federation, said the economy will start getting smaller at some point in the 2030s, even if productivity recovers to the average level of the world's top economies.

Japan's GDP will fall behind India in 2014 and by 2050 it will lose its economic presence "significantly", dipping to be only one sixth that of China and the United States and one third that of India, said the report.

Until it was overtaken by China last year, Japan's economy was the world's second largest.

In the most pessimistic scenario, the economy will continue contracting because of a worsening fiscal condition, with its GDP shrinking to the point where it is no longer among the the world's top economies.

The think tank said, however, the future was not necessarily doom and gloom and if policymakers could boost workforce participation by women to the same level as that of Sweden by 2040, Japan could still be the world's fourth largest economy by mid-century.

Japan sprinted up the league of world economies in the 1970s and 80s, but the bursting of the twin bubbles of stocks and property two decades ago took the wind out of its sales and it has trodden water ever since.

Years of anaemic growth and unsuccessful pump priming by successive governments have burdened Japan with public debt equivalent to twice GDP, with analysts warning only higher tax revenues or spending cuts can bridge the gap.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has worked to push through a bill to raise sales tax from the present five percent to 10 percent by 2015.

But even with this boost, the report warned, the nation's public debt could swell to nearly 600 percent of GDP by 2050 without further curative measures.

Japan's population is already declining thanks to a low birthrate and almost non-existent levels of immigration.

A government report released earlier this year predicted it could shrink to a third of its current size over the next century.
 
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Even though Japan current public debts of over 200%, the highest in the world, is mostly internal debts but I'm not overly optimistic about her longer term future without severe austerity measures and some serious readjustment plans. Her biggest problem is natural resources as the last of all her over 300 nuclear power plants will be closed by next month.

The Japanese are intelligent and determined people, I wish and believe they can tackle their difficulties and continue to thrive however long the road will be.


Japan to be without nuclear power after May 5 - The China Post
 
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Even though Japan current public debts of over 200%, the highest in the world, is mostly internal debts but I'm not overly optimistic about her longer term future without severe austerity measures and some serious readjustment plans. Her biggest problem is natural resources as the last of all her over 300 nuclear power plants will be closed by next month.

The Japanese are intelligent and determined people, I wish and believe they can tackle their difficulties and continue to thrive however long the road will be.


Japan to be without nuclear power after May 5 - The China Post

Japan is a frindly country of Bangladesh. So I also want to see them prospering more then current level.
 
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If the think tank is like any of the resident "tank things" we have here i'd take the claim with a bucketload (not a pinch) of salt. :D
 
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If the think tank is like any of the resident "tank things" we have here i'd take the claim with a bucketload (not a pinch) of salt. :D

Mr. Audio, is it ok to ask your country of origin and your ethnic origin?
 
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If the think tank is like any of the resident "tank things" we have here i'd take the claim with a bucketload (not a pinch) of salt. :D
It has more to do with deflation, aging & decreasing population than anything else but in absolute terms they won't be any worse than at the beginning of their 90's bust cycle.
 
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Tsunami did hit the common people's mind and reminded the endings of second WW and old wounds were opened once again so due to public pressure they came to this conclusion. Its sad but old wounds do open ever so often
 
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Japan should return to their warrior tradition

Japan's warrior tradition spans back 2000 years, 1800 of which were spent butchering each other. There were only 2 times Japanese ever fought foreigners. One was in 1590 which resulted in Japan's total defeat by Ming China. One was in 1890-1945 which resulted in Japan being the first country to taste nuclear warfare.
 
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well i guess japan has always been with india, when india is becoming massive economy we will side by japan and help the land of rising sun rise again.
 
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They have bring reforms to immigration policy. With current immigration policy and close mind to except out side cultural influence, things will be difficult for them in future.
 
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^Japan has a 105 IQ average, one of the highest in the world. It's very hard to find quality immigrants who can assimilate into Japanese culture and who won't drag down the Japanese average.
 
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^Japan has a 105 IQ average, one of the highest in the world. It's very hard to find quality immigrants who can assimilate into Japanese culture and who won't drag down the Japanese average.


You sound funnier than you look. LOL
 
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...hmm, what is that is supposed to mean?

Anyway, this is good post in one of the most reputable blogs out there:

The Geography Of Global Human Capital | Anatoly Karlin

average-pisa-scores-2009-world-map1.png


The dilemma is that countries that have large scale interest in immigrating to Japan are of low genetic quality, but countries that are of genetically high quality are probably already quite developed. Japan will probably just accept a terminal decline in population rather than open up.
 
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