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J-31 possibly being tested & evaluated in Pakistan

I agree with your assertion that PAF might be interested in J20 in small numbers to counter the Rafale. I also agree that 3rd or 4th FLYING protoype of J31 will mean some interest from some party most likely PLAAF/PLAN which in turn will make the project much more palatable to other parties. However J31 remains a risk unless the Chinese Air force/Navy is willing to absorb the development costs which will not happen unless they are buying it. There is a suggestion that it takes 150 planes for the parent company to recover its develoment costs which is why unless there is commitment from the PLAAF/PLAN this plane will not go anywhere.
I do not think the Chinese will knowingly fleece the PAF but they will not absorb the development costs unless there is benefit in it. This is plain simple business rule.
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If PAF ever get J-20s then their main role will not be engaging enemy fighter in sky, instead they will be tasked to destroy them on ground deep inside enemy territory, because that is where J-20 beat it rivals.

Once the new engines are ready, we will be able to make a more informed opinion.

Project Azm is not even a paper plane today. And it's not going to be ready until 2035-40 anyway, if they go it alone. Let's talk about it after the engineering phase starts.

PAF's only viable option today that can match the Rafale F4 and PAK FA's timeframe is the J-31.



The way I see it, the PAF will jointly develop a new export aircraft with the Chinese on the lines of the JF-17. So we will see the CAC designing and developing a new aircraft for PAF's specific requirement and this aircraft will be bought in sufficiently large numbers to make it viable, 100+, and will include joint ownership and production in Pakistan.

Bold part of your post shows you don't know how PAF works on its projects.
 
If PAF ever get J-20s then their main role will not be engaging enemy fighter in sky, instead they will be tasked to destroy them on ground deep inside enemy territory, because that is where J-20 beat it rivals.
What is the general consensus here about J20's air superiority capabilities? I'm just a little curious because most people on Chinese forums don't regard the J20 as a ground attacking platform.
 
What is the general consensus here about J20's air superiority capabilities? I'm just a little curious because most people on Chinese forums don't regard the J20 as a ground attacking platform.

Its big plane with big radar, greater range and capability to carry more weapons then its rivals, it can also carry larger weapons allowing long air or ground engagement reach, it will be able to perform area air defense or longer duration CAP.

Rafale is a 4th gen aircraft that can be countered with 4th generation aircraft. IAF missed the boat with the PAKFA and now has nowhere to go. Maybe Uncle Sam will show pity and throw some F-16s. But other than this, its a dead-end for India, other than gold-plated Raffles that are not worth the money.

At best the Rafale is 10% better than the Block 52. Nothing here that needs countering. 18 Block 52 is enough - force numbers comparison wise to deal with 36 odd Raffles. With the AESA equiped JF-17s coming online from 2019, PAF will easily be able to deal with anything IAF throws at it, and more. More and better updated AWACs, and the force posture between the two sides remains the same.

Now, if PAF can get a Chinese 5th gen - perhaps something from CAC - that would mean the advantage shifts to the PAF. Right now the balance is reasonably even, and will likely stay so for the forseeable future.

Can anyone tell which bird J-20 design team beat in competition to become Chinese equivalent of F-22?

Also AZM will get inputs from CAC most possibly because PAF is deeply connected with them since long.
 
Its big plane with big radar, greater range and capability to carry more weapons then its rivals, it can also carry larger weapons allowing long air or ground engagement reach, it will be able to perform area air defense or longer duration CAP.



Can anyone tell which bird J-20 design team beat in competition to become Chinese equivalent of F-22?

Also AZM will get inputs from CAC most possibly because PAF is deeply connected with them since long.

There was a design by SAC that competed with CAC. It looked like a stealthy, monster-flanker.
 
Can you share images of that bird?

I can't find it just now but perhaps a Chinese poster can help. There are pages and pages about it on Chinese forums such as SDF and CDF.
 
So has the engineering phase started?

Quoted year for the project is 2025. PAC is part of the military, owned and run by PAF they don´t have to advertise anything and will likely not release any details till absolutely necessary or near completion. This is very unique as PAF is the only if not one of the few air forces which makes its own aircraft, in most cases the manufacturer is either state owned separate entity or private/public sector.

Secrecy has been a growing trend with Pakistani procurement s, in most cases even foreign manufacturers keep quiet and we find out only when its near induction for eg SAAB in its releases often doesn´t announce country for equipment sales to Pakistan on request of buyer.

Project Azm is not just a single stealth aircraft, it involves a MALE UCAV, smart munition programs, creation of facilities, a aviation city and human resources required for sustainable long term aviation development all of these have been initiated. What we know are from ACM interviews. The MALE UAV and some smart munitions are expected to be near completion. So far what we know about the Azm stealth jet is China will provide assistance for airframe since they have extensive testing and development facilities as per a ACM interview. We don´t know whether it is a new design or a JV. So far most likely indicators for a 2025 timeline support a JV where J-31 is customized for Pakistani needs and avionics integration is handled locally.

J-31 itself is on hold because of a new powerplant that would be available in mid 2019. Both RD-93MA and a improved WS-13 will be ready next year and both engines are roughly the same with two way exchange of assistance between Russia and China. Prototype #3 is expected to have a lot of changes and increase in size is a possibility too.

The reason why Pakistan is not straight out buying from China this time is it wants greater control over component sourcing in the longer run. AZM will form PAFs spear head and as such will be a quality fighter. China has been a very reliable partner but western sources are often reluctant to share their products for integration. With Azm PAF wants to be able to easily integrate western components locally and manage future upgrades same way.

So its just wait and see at the moment.


http://pakchinanews.pk/pakistan-collaborating-china-next-gen-fighter/
Pakistan Collaborating With China On Next-Gen Fighter
7 months ago

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In the inaugural session of AirTech ’17, a conference being held at Air University in Islamabad, the PakistanAir Force (PAF) Chief of Air Staff (CAS) Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman stated that China is supporting Pakistan’s efforts to develop a next-generation fighter, a satellite program and a manned space mission.

“Pakistan is engaged with Chinese experts in manufacturing the next generation aircraft”, Aman told the audience, adding, “China is also providing technical assistance for launching the satellite programme.”


Under “Project Azm” the PAF is seeking to develop its own 5th generation fighter. Besides having a system to support its future requirements, Project Azm is envisaged to steer Pakistan towards greater autonomy in domestically sourcing big-ticket defence systems and expanding Pakistan’s aviation industry.

Having formally launched Project Azm in July, ACM Aman provided additional details of the project, such as 60% of its workforce comprising of civilians and that “it will take five years to initiate the production” of the aircraft (Dawn News).


Under Project Azm, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex’s (PAC) Aviation Design Institute (AvDI) was tasked to develop a medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). ACM Aman outlined that the AvDI MALE UAV will also be produced in 18 months.

Reiterating upon his prior statements of building Pakistan’s domestic industrial base and reducing its need for foreign suppliers, ACM Aman reportedly told the audience at AirTech ’17 that the PAF will source the bulk of its weapon systems from Pakistan by 2020.

In addition to Project Azm, the CAS revealed that China was also assisting Pakistan in space development.


Besides assisting Pakistan in satellite development – e.g. the Pakistan Remote Sensing Satellite (PRSS-1) earth-observation satellite due to launch in March 2018 – ACM Aman announced that China will assist in sending Pakistani astronauts into space in the next two years.

Notes & Comments:

Regarding the CAS’ statement of the Project Azm 5th generation fighter (FGF) entering production in five years, it is unclear if the CAS was referring to serial production or the production of a prototype. However, the notion of PAC collaborating with China on the program was to be expected following the relationship built as a result of the JF-17 Thunder program, which is the mainstay fighter of the PAF fighter fleet.

In its July piece discussing the launch of Project Azm and the Kamra Aviation City initiative, Quwa stated:

In some respects, the PAF’s messaging regarding the FGF, AvDI and the Kamra Aviation City seems to point towards an original design effort. However, unless the PAF wants to repeat the arrangement in place for the JF-17 (such as China being responsible for engine integration and testing or manufacturing JF-17 prototypes), it would need to make capital investment in aviation development infrastructure in Pakistan. Besides cost, time will also be required to build requisite human resources … to undertake the continual development work.

Although the Kamra Aviation City has ambitious goals, Pakistan will likely seek overseas support, and this would be a factor in any originally designed fighter. Given the political and economic realities, Pakistan’s principal partner in this endeavour would be China.

Pakistan could accelerate its process by essentially procuring the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) FC-31 off-the-shelf with a deep level of transfer-of-technology for local production and customization. In 2016, SAC began testing the second FC-31 prototype, which exhibits numerous changes to the original FC-31’s design, such as revised vertical stabilizers and forward fuselage. The FC-31 is being designed with the export market in mind. In 2015, the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) committed to bringing the FC-31 to full operational capability (FOC) by 2024. This would be a risk-averse avenue, one that could see the PAF acquire a potent strike and maritime-capable solution through the 2020s.

The alternate scenario would be for PAC to continue its ties with Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC) and to co-develop another FGF design. While this would come later than the FC-31, the PAF could steer it as a long-term solution for replacing the JF-17 from the 2030s (the oldest JF-17s will be 20 years of age by then) and organically build design, research and development (R&D) capacities with China’s support. The PAF’s decision to establish AvDI – an entity specializing in aerospace design and development work – indicates a willingness to embrace an original design program instead of acquiring the FC-31 off-the-shelf.

The other aspect that could suggest an original design is Pakistan’s aspiration to export big-ticket defence items, including combat aircraft. While a capital-heavy investment, commissioning a new program would see Pakistan own (like it does with the JF-17) workshare and a portion of the profit of third-party sales. It would be premature to dismiss the possibility of AVIC allowing Pakistan to join the FC-31 as a partner if it compensates AVIC for some of the development cost. However, the original development route will see the state’s expenditure feed Pakistan’s own design and R&D efforts, which would help with maturation in the effort and generate a valuable intellectual property for use in Project Azm and future programs.

Regarding the AvDI UAV, it is worth noting that Pakistan has not availed existing off-the-shelf options such as the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) CH-5 and/or CH-4, Turkish Aerospace Industries’ (TAI) Anka or CAC Wing Loong. The PAF has not released its required parameters for MALE UAVs, but existing off-the-shelf options occupy a diverse range of capabilities. The TAI Anka, CASC CH-4 and CASC CH-5 have payload capacities of 200 kg, 345 kg and 1,200 kg, respectively.

From cost management, risk mitigation, design evolution (based on Pakistan’s prior UAV development efforts) and technology (e.g. propulsion) access standpoints, one could plausibly expect the AvDI UAV to mirror the specifications of the TAI Anka and CASC CH-4. In fact, the Pakistani armed forces have refrained from importing the Anka and CH-4, despite both being offered and noticeable upgrades over existing UAV-based surveillance and targeted-strike assets in the Falco and CH-3A-based Burraq, respectively. Pakistan could be intending to acquire analogous capabilities domestically through the AvDI MALE UAV.

Source & Credit: Quwa.org
 
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Having formally launched Project Azm in July, ACM Aman provided additional details of the project, such as 60% of its workforce comprising of civilians and that “it will take five years to initiate the production” of the aircraft (Dawn News).

This is the part I would focus on if it's referring to the fighter jet. So the engineering phase is 5 years away if this is a brand new design. If he is talking about the J-31, then the engineering phase is already on-going.
 
Quoted year for the project is 2025. PAC is part of the military, owned and run by PAF they don´t have to advertise anything and will likely not release any details till absolutely necessary or near completion. This is very unique as PAF is the only if not one of the few air forces which makes its own aircraft, in most cases the manufacturer is either state owned separate entity or private/public sector.

Secrecy has been a growing trend with Pakistani procurement s, in most cases even foreign manufacturers keep quiet and we find out only when its near induction for eg SAAB in its releases often doesn´t announce country for equipment sales to Pakistan on request of buyer.

Project Azm is not just a single stealth aircraft, it involves a MALE UCAV, smart munition programs, creation of facilities, a aviation city and human resources required for sustainable long term aviation development all of these have been initiated. What we know are from ACM interviews. The MALE UAV and some smart munitions are expected to be near completion. So far what we know about the Azm stealth jet is China will provide assistance for airframe since they have extensive testing and development facilities as per a ACM interview. We don´t know whether it is a new design or a JV. So far most likely indicators for a 2025 timeline support a JV where J-31 is customized for Pakistani needs and avionics integration is handled locally.

J-31 itself is on hold because of a new powerplant that would be available in mid 2019. Both RD-93MA and a improved WS-13 will be ready next year and both engines are roughly the same with two way exchange of assistance between Russia and China. Prototype #3 is expected to have a lot of changes and increase in size is a possibility too.

The reason why Pakistan is not straight out buying from China this time is it wants greater control over component sourcing in the longer run. AZM will form PAFs spear head and as such will be a quality fighter. China has been a very reliable partner but western sources are often reluctant to share their products for integration. With Azm PAF wants to be able to easily integrate western components locally and manage future upgrades same way.

So its just wait and see at the moment.


http://pakchinanews.pk/pakistan-collaborating-china-next-gen-fighter/
Pakistan Collaborating With China On Next-Gen Fighter
7 months ago

FacebookTwitterWhatsAppWeChatGoogle+

In the inaugural session of AirTech ’17, a conference being held at Air University in Islamabad, the PakistanAir Force (PAF) Chief of Air Staff (CAS) Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman stated that China is supporting Pakistan’s efforts to develop a next-generation fighter, a satellite program and a manned space mission.

“Pakistan is engaged with Chinese experts in manufacturing the next generation aircraft”, Aman told the audience, adding, “China is also providing technical assistance for launching the satellite programme.”


Under “Project Azm” the PAF is seeking to develop its own 5th generation fighter. Besides having a system to support its future requirements, Project Azm is envisaged to steer Pakistan towards greater autonomy in domestically sourcing big-ticket defence systems and expanding Pakistan’s aviation industry.

Having formally launched Project Azm in July, ACM Aman provided additional details of the project, such as 60% of its workforce comprising of civilians and that “it will take five years to initiate the production” of the aircraft (Dawn News).


Under Project Azm, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex’s (PAC) Aviation Design Institute (AvDI) was tasked to develop a medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). ACM Aman outlined that the AvDI MALE UAV will also be produced in 18 months.

Reiterating upon his prior statements of building Pakistan’s domestic industrial base and reducing its need for foreign suppliers, ACM Aman reportedly told the audience at AirTech ’17 that the PAF will source the bulk of its weapon systems from Pakistan by 2020.

In addition to Project Azm, the CAS revealed that China was also assisting Pakistan in space development.


Besides assisting Pakistan in satellite development – e.g. the Pakistan Remote Sensing Satellite (PRSS-1) earth-observation satellite due to launch in March 2018 – ACM Aman announced that China will assist in sending Pakistani astronauts into space in the next two years.

Notes & Comments:

Regarding the CAS’ statement of the Project Azm 5th generation fighter (FGF) entering production in five years, it is unclear if the CAS was referring to serial production or the production of a prototype. However, the notion of PAC collaborating with China on the program was to be expected following the relationship built as a result of the JF-17 Thunder program, which is the mainstay fighter of the PAF fighter fleet.

In its July piece discussing the launch of Project Azm and the Kamra Aviation City initiative, Quwa stated:

In some respects, the PAF’s messaging regarding the FGF, AvDI and the Kamra Aviation City seems to point towards an original design effort. However, unless the PAF wants to repeat the arrangement in place for the JF-17 (such as China being responsible for engine integration and testing or manufacturing JF-17 prototypes), it would need to make capital investment in aviation development infrastructure in Pakistan. Besides cost, time will also be required to build requisite human resources … to undertake the continual development work.

Although the Kamra Aviation City has ambitious goals, Pakistan will likely seek overseas support, and this would be a factor in any originally designed fighter. Given the political and economic realities, Pakistan’s principal partner in this endeavour would be China.

Pakistan could accelerate its process by essentially procuring the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) FC-31 off-the-shelf with a deep level of transfer-of-technology for local production and customization. In 2016, SAC began testing the second FC-31 prototype, which exhibits numerous changes to the original FC-31’s design, such as revised vertical stabilizers and forward fuselage. The FC-31 is being designed with the export market in mind. In 2015, the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) committed to bringing the FC-31 to full operational capability (FOC) by 2024. This would be a risk-averse avenue, one that could see the PAF acquire a potent strike and maritime-capable solution through the 2020s.

The alternate scenario would be for PAC to continue its ties with Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC) and to co-develop another FGF design. While this would come later than the FC-31, the PAF could steer it as a long-term solution for replacing the JF-17 from the 2030s (the oldest JF-17s will be 20 years of age by then) and organically build design, research and development (R&D) capacities with China’s support. The PAF’s decision to establish AvDI – an entity specializing in aerospace design and development work – indicates a willingness to embrace an original design program instead of acquiring the FC-31 off-the-shelf.

The other aspect that could suggest an original design is Pakistan’s aspiration to export big-ticket defence items, including combat aircraft. While a capital-heavy investment, commissioning a new program would see Pakistan own (like it does with the JF-17) workshare and a portion of the profit of third-party sales. It would be premature to dismiss the possibility of AVIC allowing Pakistan to join the FC-31 as a partner if it compensates AVIC for some of the development cost. However, the original development route will see the state’s expenditure feed Pakistan’s own design and R&D efforts, which would help with maturation in the effort and generate a valuable intellectual property for use in Project Azm and future programs.

Regarding the AvDI UAV, it is worth noting that Pakistan has not availed existing off-the-shelf options such as the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) CH-5 and/or CH-4, Turkish Aerospace Industries’ (TAI) Anka or CAC Wing Loong. The PAF has not released its required parameters for MALE UAVs, but existing off-the-shelf options occupy a diverse range of capabilities. The TAI Anka, CASC CH-4 and CASC CH-5 have payload capacities of 200 kg, 345 kg and 1,200 kg, respectively.

From cost management, risk mitigation, design evolution (based on Pakistan’s prior UAV development efforts) and technology (e.g. propulsion) access standpoints, one could plausibly expect the AvDI UAV to mirror the specifications of the TAI Anka and CASC CH-4. In fact, the Pakistani armed forces have refrained from importing the Anka and CH-4, despite both being offered and noticeable upgrades over existing UAV-based surveillance and targeted-strike assets in the Falco and CH-3A-based Burraq, respectively. Pakistan could be intending to acquire analogous capabilities domestically through the AvDI MALE UAV.

Source & Credit: Quwa.org
its time army and navy follows the same ...army should be able to produce tanks, helicopters, artillery guns, drones, a standarad short/medium SAM across all three services by itself
it need to go and do JV with china, turkey, south africa, ukrain and poland to get this done..there are plenty of opturnities, yes money is the issue but in the long run it will be cheaper
 
This is the part I would focus on if it's referring to the fighter jet. So the engineering phase is 5 years away if this is a brand new design. If he is talking about the J-31, then the engineering phase is already on-going.
No, project already started be it J-31 or a new design and you don't jump into things like these, it would have been in planning/designing years before announced by PAF. 2025 is when it will be ready and it has to be by that time as 2025 is also the final retirement time for all Mirages. Coincidentally the J-31 will achieve FOC in 2024 according to SAC.
 
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No, project already started be it J-31 or a new design and you don't jump into things like these, it would have been in planning/designing years before announced by PAF. 2025 is when it will be ready and it has to be by that time as 2025 is also the final retirement time for all Mirages. Coincidentally the J-31 will achieve FOC in 2024 according to SAC.

If the PAF says it will be in serial production in 2025, then it should at least start flying this year.

Anyway, this project looks like it will replace the F-16s after 2030-35. The Mirages can be replaced by the JF-17 Block 3.
 
This is the part I would focus on if it's referring to the fighter jet. So the engineering phase is 5 years away if this is a brand new design. If he is talking about the J-31, then the engineering phase is already on-going.
Ofz he is talking about customized version of J31 ... We don't have design capability ,,, WHat we will be doing is indeginization of avionics and sub-system for capacity building ...
 
So has the engineering phase started?

You will know when its necessary to show what they are doing, JFT route is possible but AZM is not going to be backbone bird, it will be primary front line fighter so PAF may not disclose much about it, as many times in history they have followed that path.
 

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