J-10 a strategic choice for Bangladesh Air Force

[UKBengali]

I can say that until Jokowi term finishes (2024), I believe our defense budget will not exceed current budget of around 9 billion USD. And as Covid 19 become an outbreak in Indonesia and also many part of the world, that figure is even getting slashed now.

I will try to explain why our defense budget will be stagnant for the next 4-5 years.

Current government make several new policies and program in its second term. They create new welfare government program like unemployment benefit and also program like new capital building, and also lower corporate tax. Those program will surely affect the budget heavily for the next 4-5 years.

Dont forget that for the last 5 years, Indonesia is under Jokowi administration who focuses more on infrastructure and village development, those things absorb many of our budget. We can say that he focus much on economy and doesnt put too much attention on our defense. I will try to explain why the policy is like that.

What I can say is that many Indonesia strategic inside the government look our major threat is more on economy rather than anything else, particularly in relation with trade with China. We posted first trade deficit in 2012 where China imported goods as the main reason of it. So it is understandable for our current government to spend more on infrastructure to make our economy become more competitive. Lowering corporate tax is also part of the strategy.

We try to compete with China in economic sector with the goal to make our trade with China getting more balance or even scores surplus. I dont think it is wise for Indonesia to spend much budget in defense to balance China in SCS while in other hand our economy lost its competitiveness with China and import many product from that country. Our defense spending will not be sustainable in the long run if our economy is out compete by them. So we try to fix the underlying problem on our economy first before spending more on defense.

We dont know what is the strategy of the new leader after Jokowi administration finishes its final term in November 2024, but as infrastructure will relatively be quite good at that period so I can expect that new administration have more ease to use state budget for other things like defense procurement.

I think Indonesia is right to not spend more on defence and no point even trying to compete too much with China.

So Indonesian defence budget as proportion of GDP will fall if it stays constant till 2024?

As regards BD my reply was to that countrywoman of yours who again slyly attacked BD with incorrect information that BD government is not investing in defence. As everyone is able to see now, BD defence spending grew 4x in the last decade - one of the highest proportionate increases in the world. It will keep doing so, as we see with Myanmar and with India, BD is sandwiched between two hostile and unstable countries and so needs a strong military to defend itself.

Yes we have MIG 21 and MIG 29 in hundreds..... this is our strategy to win wars with numbers just like Soviets.....

Imagine Bangladesh goes for costly shiny Typhoons or Super Hornets and we blow them up on the ground itself by swarming their skies with dirt cheap 100s of MIG 21 fish beds....

Not as easy as that dude.

Typhoons can carry up to 8 air-to-air missiles.

A squadron(16) of these in the air can take down 100 or more Mig-21/29s before they need to land to refuel and rearm.

Thankfully the IAF does not think like you.

 

[Aung Zaya]

Su-34 would be nice compare to su-25 or JH-7.

too expensive to operate. we need realistic solution to support CAS and counter-insurgency mission.

 

[drunken-monke]

It will keep doing so, as we see with Myanmar and with India, BD is sandwiched between two hostile and unstable countries and so needs a strong military to defend itself.

India hostile and unstable??
I believe despite few issues between border guards of both nations, border between both the nations have been relatively calm and I pray it remains so for a very long period.
I agree with rest of your post.

 

[LKJ86]

Potential candidates are Su-25 or JH-7.

Is Su-25 a fighter bomber???

 

[drunken-monke]

Yes we have MIG 21 and MIG 29 in hundreds..... this is our strategy to win wars with numbers just like Soviets.....

Imagine Bangladesh goes for costly shiny Typhoons or Super Hornets and we blow them up on the ground itself by swarming their skies with dirt cheap 100s of MIG 21 fish beds....

You are nuts!!!
IAF wont do that..
IAF has plans and resources for the coordinated responses.
Meanwhile, we have cordial relations with BD, why need to attack them?? Its Myanmar which has been hostile and harbored terrorist from Northeast. I have went through several posts and surprise to see the Myanmar Air force being quite a large compared to Bangladesh Air force. Though there re several plans to acquire 16 multi-role fighter jets, I believe still BD air force need 2 squadron of good multi role fighters. Their plan for ground attack helos seems to be good..

 

[UKBengali]

You are nuts!!!
IAF wont do that..
IAF has plans and resources for the coordinated responses.
Meanwhile, we have cordial relations with BD, why need to attack them?? Its Myanmar which has been hostile and harbored terrorist from Northeast. I have went through several posts and surprise to see the Myanmar Air force being quite a large compared to Bangladesh Air force. Though there re several plans to acquire 16 multi-role fighter jets, I believe still BD air force need 2 squadron of good multi role fighters. Their plan for ground attack helos seems to be good..

Yes, IAF top-brass won't send dozens of pilots in Mig-21s/29s to be slaughtered by planes like Eurofighter.

As for BAF, yes you are right as negotiations are ongoing for 16 fighters, most probably from a Western country like UK or USA with France also trying to sell their Rafale as well to BD but I think they have almost zero chance of selling to BD.
Chinese J-10CE has an outside chance but I think this is unlikely as war with Myanmar is far more likely than any remote theoretical possibility of war with India.
As for attack helos, Boeing confirmed that BAF already selected Apache and BA are also looking at getting their own attack helicopters.

 

[Aung Zaya]

Is Su-25 a fighter bomber???

no. but potential candidate for CAS and COIN role. the price is also affordable.

 

[Indos]

I think Indonesia is right to not spend more on defence and no point even trying to compete too much with China.

So Indonesian defence budget as proportion of GDP will fall if it stays constant till 2024?

As regards BD my reply was to that countrywoman of yours who again slyly attacked BD with incorrect information that BD government is not investing in defence. As everyone is able to see now, BD defence spending grew 4x in the last decade - one of the highest proportionate increases in the world. It will keep doing so, as we see with Myanmar and with India, BD is sandwiched between two hostile and unstable countries and so needs a strong military to defend itself.

Ya, I think it will fall relatively to our GDP if we still can grow our economy. For your information, our Defense spending is growing into multiple times as well during Susilo Bambang Yudoyono administration (2004-2014), but during Jokowi administration it becomes stagnant.

Jokowi though spent more on our Police and double their budget during his first 5 years administration that is more related to wage and welfare increase. Our Police budget is not too different with our Armed Force budget though and we have huge paramilitary police that many of them are operating in Papua to combat the rebel and improve the security there.

Talking about Bangladesh defense budget, I think it is too much to spend more than 1 percent of its GDP. I dont see any threat from India that Bangladesh should worry for. I think the condition of Bangladesh with its worry on India is due to miscalculated analysis that is also found in Singapore defense strategy. Singapore spend too much on defense due to its worry on Indonesia. Some thing that should not be the case since Indonesia is not interested with Singapore due to several reasons. I think similar view is also hold by Indian strategist about Bangladesh.

Singapore has already been overpopulated with so few land while Indonesia still has one big land just near Singapore that is still relatively empty (Bintan Island). Unlike Singapore who rely water supply from Malaysia, Bintan island has its own water supply. We also have made our Singapore version in Batam island, an island next to Singapore. If Indonesia ever become so aggressive, we are more interested to grab Sabah and Serawak in Malaysia with its relatively few people with huge and fertile land in Borneo (Kalimantan) island.

Similar situation I believe will also happen with Bangladesh. Bangladesh has so many people while the land is not too large. It will be different if Bangladesh has land like Xin Jiang in China that can make India want to take some part of it for their own people. And occupying Bangladesh also means increasing their Muslim population, something that I think is not favorable for Hindu politicians and strategist in India.

So it is better to see Myanmar as the only possible adversary in any future military conflict.

 

[UKBengali]

Ya, I think it will fall relatively to our GDP if we still can grow our economy. For your information, our Defense spending is growing into multiple times as well during Susilo Bambang Yudoyono administration (2004-2014), but during Jokowi administration it becomes stagnant.

Jokowi though spent more on our Police and double their budget during his first 5 years administration that is more related to wage and welfare increase. Our Police budget is not too different with our Armed Force budget though and we have huge paramilitary police that many of them are operating in Papua to combat the rebel and improve the security there.

Talking about Bangladesh defense budget, I think it is too much to spend more than 1 percent of its GDP. I dont see any threat from India that Bangladesh should worry for. I think the condition of Bangladesh with its worry on India is due to miscalculated analysis that is also found in Singapore defense strategy. Singapore spend too much on defense due to its worry on Indonesia. Some thing that should not be the case since Indonesia is not interested with Singapore due to several reasons. I think similar view is also hold by Indian strategist about Bangladesh.

Singapore has already been overpopulated with so few land while Indonesia still has one big land just near Singapore that is still relatively empty (Bintan Island). Unlike Singapore who rely water supply from Malaysia, Bintan island has its own water supply. We also have made our Singapore version in Batam island, an island next to Singapore. If Indonesia ever become so aggressive, we are more interested to grab Sabah and Serawak in Malaysia with its relatively few people with huge and fertile land in Borneo (Kalimantan) island.

Similar situation I believe will also happen with Bangladesh. Bangladesh has so many people while the land is not too large. It will be different if Bangladesh has land like Xin Jiang in China that can make India want to take some part of it for their own people. And occupying Bangladesh also means increasing their Muslim population, something that I think is not favorable for Hindu politicians and strategist in India.

So it is better to see Myanmar as the only possible adversary in any future military conflict.

I do not agree that BD should not spend more than 1% of GDP on defence.
When you take arms imports which are separate to the defence budget it is maybe 1.5% of GDP in total.
BD's defence spending is no burden for a country that has a low 34% debt/gdp ratio.

As a comparison India spends 2.5% and Myanmar maybe 5-6% when you add in their hidden spending from military controlled businesses.

With even Myanmar spending so much they have become a real headache for BD and it will maybe take another 2-3 years of major procurements(especially 4+ gen fighters) before BD even equals their military, let alone gaining any advantage.

India has become a hostile state after Modi came into power and they are openly calling Indian Muslims as "illegal BD'shis" and they would like nothing better than to do a Myanmar and dump some millions of Muslims into BD.

BD needs to maintain the proportion of GDP it spends on defence if it is to preserve it's interests in the region. In fact I would like it to rise to 2% of GDP.

 

[vishwambhar]

Firstly India is no body to allow us anything . Secondly if even India has any problem , we do not care !

I never said India holding authority to decide on BD fighters..... if you read it was posts by other members who were talking India won't allow BD to go for F16 or Gripen..... my response was to that point....

Such members seem to believe that India won't allow BD to go for F16 but will not have a problem if it goes for Typhoon which is far superior even than block 72....

 

[drunken-monke]

I do not agree that BD should not spend more than 1% of GDP on defence.
When you take arms imports which are separate to the defence budget it is maybe 1.5% of GDP in total.
BD's defence spending is no burden for a country that has a low 34% debt/gdp ratio.

As a comparison India spends 2.5% and Myanmar maybe 5-6% when you add in their hidden spending from military controlled businesses.

With even Myanmar spending so much they have become a real headache for BD and it will maybe take another 2-3 years of major procurements(especially 4+ gen fighters) before BD even equals their military, let alone gaining any advantage.

India has become a hostile state after Modi came into power and they are openly calling Indian Muslims as "illegal BD'shis" and they would like nothing better than to do a Myanmar and dump some millions of Muslims into BD.

BD needs to maintain the proportion of GDP it spends on defense if it is to preserve it's interests in the region. In fact I would like it to rise to 2% of GDP.

I am from Mumbai (New Mumbai), and believe me lot of hawkers, auto-rikshaw drivers, chicken shopkeeper, house maids are Bangladeshis. My rough estimate is that, at-least 500,000 illegal Bangladeshis are living in Mumbai and suburbs. They themselves don't admit initially but after taking in to confidence they spill the beans. One thing for sure, they are paying hefty price to local police to allow them to live there. I am not lying mate. There are many illegal Bangladeshis.

 

[UKBengali]

I am from Mumbai (New Mumbai), and believe me lot of hawkers, auto-rikshaw drivers, chicken shopkeeper, house maids are Bangladeshis. My rough estimate is that, at-least 500,000 illegal Bangladeshis are living in Mumbai and suburbs. They themselves don't admit initially but after taking in to confidence they spill the beans. One thing for sure, they are paying hefty price to local police to allow them to live there. I am not lying mate. There are many illegal Bangladeshis.

OK, Just prove it and send them back then.

This whining is getting tiresome.


Now let us go back to the topic and that is whether BD should procure J-10CEs.

 

[drunken-monke]

OK, Just prove it and send them back then.

This whining is getting tiresome.


Now let us go back to the topic and that is whether BD should procure J-10CEs.

I believe BD should not go for F16 or J10C because potential for further development in these platforms is very less. Rather its better for them to evaluate Euro Fighter or Rafale. If they wanna have cheaper option then Su35 may be an option. Or if at all they want to pump a few more bucks then one squadron of F35 would surly create furor in Myanmar.

 

[Bilal9]

Is Su-25 a fighter bomber???

I thought Su-25 (and successor platforms) are ground attack variants mainly...

 

[LKJ86]

I thought Su-25 (and successor platforms) are ground attack variants mainly...

Su-25 is the same as A-10.
And Su-24 and Su-34 are fighter bombers.