@MastanKhan O yara MK.... good timing for the thread... good discussion going on here... here is my input!
Hybridwar 3.0 is in full swing...and
so far China has been reactive... I wouldn't say overwhelmed but reactive nevertheless.
Clinton second term speeches to
Bush Jr. declaring in clear terms
China to be Strategic Competitor...to
Obama acting tough and his
Asia Pivot ...bascially
Hillary...and
more basically Deepstate USA.
HongKong protests given so much coverage that the sky was falling down..nonstop...
that was/is a very successful Hybridwar Attack. 10/10.
Freedom of Navigation Patrols...
Concert of Democracies..
IndoPacificOceanRegion.... and more...
2008 Financial Crisis.....China, actually, played a very positive and supporting role for the US... of course, self interest was involved too... but it did.
All those attempts to create Pacific Prosperity Partnerships excluding China... and then there is
ASEAN ... the most productive region economically ...with enormus potential to grow... which the CominedWest led by the US wants to grow....
but excluding China...
at least that is the thought process and dowtailing actions or attempts.
ASEAN and China are rather deeply intertwined so separation is not that walk in the park!
Trump's
TwitterTradeWar didn't bring jobs to America but did help the Treasury and US exporters...
While the US was busy searching WMDs and playing hide and seek with Taliban in Kabulistan...
China built the Islands in South China Sea... developed its
Naval and Air Assets and Capabilities...
strengthened its hold on Nine Dash Line...
In the same time frame China did climb the
Critical Technology Curve and also the ValueChain of Production... it upgraded its Industrial Base...
BRI was/is more than just Infrastructre projects.... if you recall the US allies from Europe did join the AIIB over the strong US reaction...
Please, see that my view is that of a BemusedObserver... not pro US or pro China... this helps me to understand the situation better.
I believe it would be plain wrong to assume that the US is alone in trying to
ContainChina or clip its wings... the
CombinedWest is trying to do so...
under the US flag...
It is about the System!
The Wealth, Privilge and Power that the CombinedWest has enjoyed for past 200 years and post SecondWorldWar is unparalled in History. Almost Total Power.
Now the question is: Who will freely give away such Power and become less privilged?
No one will!
The US has one simple/clear National Policy: No regional power that can challenge the US anywhere.
EuropeanUnion is the US project and so is Euro... this has helped the US keep Russia practically out of Europe...
China with its landmass, population and upgraded Industrial Base is a huge Challenge to the CombinedWest and its System.
So far, China has played along with the CombinedWest and worked within the
System to its great benefit.... it
was/is No Free Lunch...
since, the Chinese worked for it... enabling the CombinedWest to enjoy good life!
Frankly, it was/is a Win-Win Deal.
China built world class infrastructure, got 700mln out of poverty, became world's biggest creditor..built/modernised its vast industrial based.... gained in Science and Technology and now competing with the CombinedWest in KeyTechnologies and spending vast amounts of money for Industry 3.0 ... Artificial Intelligence the driver.
This has created the Biggest Challenge for the CombinedWest led by the US.... unlike the
USSR... which was
a hollow Giant eating
gurkings behind the
IronWall!
The Way I see it...
the CombinedWest wants China to keep supporting the System and not asking for either
New Financial Architecture or New Industry Standards or
be challenging in any shape or form...
However, China sees itself as Civilisational State and the Middle Kingdom...and wishes to have equal say to its weight in the
Order of Things... in other words, China wishes to shape the world around it in a manner that benefits its National Interests...
logical from the Chinese Perspective...but dangerous for the System.
Weaponised Fiannce is now confronting China... and it doesn't have that leverage yet to deal with it...since Yuan is not globalised...
so it cann't live in a Parallel Universe other than the one created by the CombinedWest!
Now whether this Corona is Vegence of Nature or Man's Dark Folly.... it is making rounds... it has exposed the CombinedWest's unpreparedness and the loss of life is immense...so is the trauma... so ..someone needs to be blamed/framed....
typical politicoz - It-wasn't-me ....
For now I believe the
MediaCreated rhetoric is a pressure tool for China to accept the terms of the
CombinedWest and just be.... we must see
Freedom of Navigation Patrols as Negotiation Tactics.
Also, some manufacturing will move out of China in order to create more leverage against China...most likey to ASEAN and some to India.. Mexico can benefit too...
This process might take a couple of years or more...but how effective will it be is anyone's guess.... because
China is the Second Biggest Economy and 1.4Bln consumer base....
This brings us to the
OilWar... which needs to be seen in
totality.... Shale going belly up is short term thing... because it gives the US energy independence...so it will bounce back sooner or later...but for that the Oil needs to be $70 per barrel....
Where does China import its oil from?
What if all those Oil producing countries get marred into conflict or the supply of oil becomes precarious?
Hybridwar 3.0
I cann't see the CombinedWest going to DirectWar with China... neither will China....but from now on it is high gears in the Hybridwar.
The US plans to create India as a counter to China.... Will China prop up Pakistan against India?
In any case Russia is to benefit from all this .... in the short term that is!
If, I may simplify it....
we are now seeing the Struggle for the World Order i.e. The System trying keep its privilige!
And why not!
It is in the Nature of Power to try everything to remain potent...
The World Power Architecture is now in flux...and it is not going to be easy by either side to Play by the Rules...
Ripe tomato falls and splashes on the floor... one can see the seeds... organic ones do smell nice!
Mangus
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