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Israel: The most isolated nation on earth
September 21st 2011.
Background
The Nation known to the world as the state of Israel was created in 1948 after much bloodshed on the occupied Palestinian land. Since then the Palestinian conflict has been a source of trouble in that region and has caused a number of wars and conflicts between Arab nations and Israel resulting in great loss of life and damage to the economies on both sides.
After decades of bloodshed Israel reached a peace agreement with Egypt in 1979 and few other neighboring Arab countries later on. Ousted dictator of Egypt Hosni Mubarik received continuous support in the form of annual military assistance and economic aid from the United States in return , essentially to keep a lid on the widespread anti Israel sentiment in Egypt for over 3 decades to ensure the security of the Jewish state.
Geopolitical impact of the Arab Spring
Events in the North African Arab states and in some parts of the Middle east have already changed the political landscape of the region , from Tunisia to Egypt , Yemen , Bahrain and Libya. People have stood up to their west supported dictators and in most cases have toppled them but not without great sacrifices.
Egypt being the most important country in North Africa is relevant to Israeli geopolitical scene more than any other country in the region. For over three decades the United States have supported & funded deposed Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarik just to make sure that the anti Zionist trends in Egypt could be oppressed.
But now the times have changed , and the western countries are rushing to cease the initiative & present themselves as the "champions of democracy" as well as present themselves as "leaders" to ensure the so called "democratic transition" takes place. Many Egyptians and Middle easterners believe that its too late and the move is just a gesture "face saving".
Very first priority for the United States is to ensure the security of Israel as the Arab Spring unfolds , be it at the cost of the will of the Egyptian people , yet again. The largest and arguably the most organized political force in Egypt today is the political party called "The Muslim Brotherhood" which was dealt with heavy handily in the Mubarik regime because of their "Islamist agenda" and their efforts to turn Egypt into an Islamic state.
Just recently Israeli soldiers shot dead two Egyptian border guards while chasing a group of Palestinian militants & it sparked a series of protests in Egypt. Egyptians brought down the Israeli embassy wall in Cairo , climbed the building , smashed windows and removed Israeli flag and tore it into pieces. The protesters were angry at the Israeli aggression in the Sinai desert and demanded apology from Israel which as usual was never provided.
These sort of protest movements against Israel in Egypt were unheard of in the Mubarik dictatorship. It truly reflects that the "winds of change" are blowing through N.Africa and the Middle east. People are rising up to their aspirations and express themselves and they would elect those leaders in the "New Egypt" who could fulfill their aspirations and draw up an independent foreign policy towards Israel. This scenario poses a great challenge , not only for the Jewish state which until now has found comfort in its assertive posture but also for the Washington and other Western countries which still are assessing the situation and how to position themselves to serve their interests in the new Middle east.
Collapse of the Israel Turkish relationship
Turkey was the first Muslim country to recognize Israel right after its creation & both countries have enjoyed good relations and great cooperation in the field of science & technology , military hardware , international politics and tourism. Turkey also served as a back channel communication line between Israel and many powerful Muslim countries with no diplomatic relations to Israel like Iran & Pakistan.
The ties between two countries have collapsed completely this year in the backdrop of Israel's commando raid on a Turkish flagged flotilla named "Mavi Marmara" bound for besieged Palestinian territory of Gaza in International waters on 31st May 2010 in which 9 Turkish activists were shot dead by Israeli Naval Commandos. In the first week of September 2011 , a UN inquiry into the attack was leaked and its controversial assessment was rejected both by Turkey and Israel , following the report Turkey suspended all diplomatic and military ties with Israel and now plans to take the matter to International Court of Human Rights.
Turkey today in the leadership of its Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is hugely popular in the Arab and wider Islamic block is now spreading its political influence not only through economic ties but also reviving it cultural ties with these countries , which some argue is an act of effective diplomacy. Recently when Turkish PM visited Bin Ghazi in Libya and met the leaders of NTC [National Transitional council] he also joined them in prayers which the leaders of Britain & France cant do , he also was the first foreign leader to visit Libya which was swiftly and hastily followed by a joint visit by PM Nicolas Sarkozi of France and PM David Cameron of Britain. The visit by two leaders was largely viewed as "half baked" & "with no substance" underneath the talk of democracy.
Turkey also is politically active in countries like Egypt , Iran , Syria and Pakistan , UAE , even Saudi Arabia and it also holds a valuable political leverage over these countries [ strategically important for Israel one way or the other ] , largely because of the popularity of the Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Most of these countries where Turkey holds a firm ground surround Israel geographically so the impact of relationship collapse with Turkey would not be without consequences.
Iran has an active civilian nuclear program which many suspect to also have a military application. Israel believes that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and it could end its domination in the Middle East as world's only "undeclared nuclear power" a view supported by Israel's western allies. On the other hand Iranian leader Mehmood Ahmadi Nijad is defiant , and argues that his country's nuclear program is only for peaceful means and Iran is not developing nuclear weapons. Israel disagrees as it also is fearful of ever growing Iranian ballistic missile program , specially a recently tested medium range ballistic missile Shahab III.
United States has funded an Israeli anti ballistic missile program called "Arrow " to provide deterrent against Iranian Missiles. Israel also have warned of a surgical strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if Iranian nuclear program is not stopped , for that matter it also has conducted air exercises to assess the requirements of such an attack , with the help of Greece it also has trained its pilots in electronic counter measures against a possible S-300 air defense threat it may face in Iran. These assertive maneuvers have not been welcomed in Iran at all as one would imagine and they are also beefing up their both offensive and defensive capabilities.
Israel practically cannot attack Iran as all routes that have been selected go through countries which won't allow Israeli Air Force to fly through their air space to carry out a surgical strike mission in Iran. So Israel is not only active on the political front but also very active in using its much successful Zionist lobby groups in the US to convince the Washington to attack Iranian nuclear facilities.
Israel is doing its best through all lobbyist organizations to prove that Iranian nuclear program is a threat to the US not only to Israel. This effort also includes mass propaganda campaign through print and electronic media ie films.Just to give an idea of the extent Israel is going to is to look at the Hollywood's star director Steven spielberg's new Transformers franchise. In the recently released third segment of the movie "Dark of the moon" Iranian nuclear facilities have been depicted as a "threat to global peace" and thus attacked and destroyed by "alien robots". on the side note Steven Spielberg happens to be a Jew.It remains to be seen how the Israeli Iranian conflict over Iran's nuclear program turns out , but at the moment Iran is defiant and is keeping Israel at the back foot.
Israel India nexus and Pakistan
Israel and Pakistan never have enjoyed diplomatic relations as Pakistan never recognized Israel as an independent state. Ex Israeli PM Ben Gurion famously warned the WZM [world zionist movement] of the dangers posed by Pakistan to Israel. Pakistan have participated against Israel in all Arab Israeli wars through deploying its combat pilots who inflicted some damages over Israeli air force.
When Pakistan started its nuclear weapons program , Israel saw it as a threat and hence lobbied to get it stopped. There were also plans drawn up to bomb Pakistan's nuclear facilities with the help of Pakistan's arch enemy India , but India fearing the consequences never tried to execute these blue prints with Israel against Pakistani nuclear facilities to stop the development of what was dubbed as "Islamic bomb".
Israel in the last decade and half has shifted its focus on India and have successfully established ties with India. Now Israel is the 2nd largest arms supplier to India behind Russia.Israel also sent its army officers to help combat Pakistani Army in the Kargil conflict in year 1999.
Israel and Pakistan always have been quiet about their hostilities , conflicts have largely been between the internationally feared Intelligence agencies of both nations the Mossad & the Inter Services Intelligence [ ISI ].Recent Intel reports coming from Pakistan consistently blame Israeli spy agency Mossad for carrying out joint operations with Indian Research and analysis wing [RAW] inside Pakistan which involve training the terrorist groups in Afghanistan and sending them to Pakistan to carry out suicide bombings.
The allegations were refreshed after a well secured Pakistani Naval base was attacked in a daring attempt. Pakistan alleged that the terrorists received training in Afghanistan and were brought to Pakistan to carry out this attack.
Though Pakistan fell short of blaming Israeli Indian nexus outrightly , it did hit that it suspected their involvement in the incident and many like it which happened before on Pakistani soil. Pakistan until recently held a leadership role in the Muslim world by being one of the founding members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation [OIC] and the only Nuclear power in the Islamic block of countries. Israeli activities with India against Pakistan are closely watched in Pakistan and it also has the potential to open another confrontation front for Israel in the future.
Israel at the odds with the United States
Israel has been sharply criticized by the United states recently for continuing to build Jewish settlements in the occupied west bank , which are considered illegal under international law. There are calls for cutting the multi billion dollar US aid to Israel as the US struggles to cut its 14.7 trillion dollar debt. Also there is a growing anti Israel movement being run by the surviving victims of USS Liberty which was attacked and heavily damaged by Israeli air force and Navy on June 8, 1967 , leaving 34 crewmen killed,171 crewmen wounded.
US also is unhappy about Israel's technology transfer to China , specially US funded jet fighter project IAI Lavi which was sold to China and was used to develop advance J-10A/B air crafts. Israel also transfered Nuclear technology to China and South Africa which didn't go well in Washington. Israel now is the 2nd biggest supplier of arms to China behind Russia which has put it on a collision course with the US.
Israel looking towards Cyprus and Greece
Considering the above situation it is not hard to understand that Israel has lost all of its friends in the region and is becoming unpopular by the day in the rest of the world. Now Israel has shifted its policy and is looking towards Cyprus and Greece for an alliance. Both countries are insignificant in terms of international politics , and Greece is almost bankrupt. One reason of the effort to make Israeli ties with Cyprus closer is to somehow keep Turkey in check which is in a conflict situation in this region not only on territorial disputes but also on gas resources. Israel is taking its chances to use proxies like Cyprus , Greece and Kurdish terrorist organization PKK to blackmail Turkey and strike a balance of influence in the region , that they could deal with Turkey on the equal footing.
Conclusion
Understanding the above situation it is not hard to figure out that Israel is the most isolated nation on earth today. If the situation maintains , Israel can soon find itself in a very difficult position not only politically but most importantly in the Economic theater as well. It relies on its allies for trade , tourism , arms and many more aspects of economics which could turn against Israel in the immediate future.
Times have gone past when Israel and its allies in the west could keep the dictators in power to keep people of those countries brutally suppressed both physically & economically. Now when the so called Arab spring becomes an Arab summer , Israel will find itself on a crossroads if it doesn't already , it would have to drop its assertive , uncompromising attitude as well as drop its so called "Mad Dog" diplomacy , designed by IDF General Moshe Dayan. Israel must realize that times have changed and it must change too , it would have to sincerely want peace and work to achieve it.
Israel as a "police state" wont be long lasting , if it has to last , it would have to co-exist with its Arab neighbors through a peaceful existence policy on both sides. If Israel stops being assertive and becomes more friendly and civilized as well as easy to deal with , it may find a few friends which it so badly needs.
Regards.
Strategic Watchman
The author can be reached at: strategicwatchman@hotmail.com
Strategic Watchman: Israel: The most isolated nation on earth
Another random blog being passed of as a "think tank".
