April 19/09: The Jerusalem Post reports that Israels Air Force is reviewing Boeings new F-15 Silent Eagle (F-15SE, see March 17/09), as a potential alternative to Lockheed Martins F-35A, if export permission for a downgraded F-22 model is still refused. While the F-35s high cost remains an issue for the Israelis, expected delivery delays to 2014 and the inability to install Israeli-made systems appear to be bigger stumbling blocks.
In contrast, the F-15SE would be available by 2011; like an F-22EX model, some additional development will be required to finalize the design. The F-15SE offers considerably more range and payload than the F-35, for less than the F-22 would cost; possibly for less than early-model F-35s would cost. Electronics and equipment flexibility would be similar to the other F-15s Israel flies, and the potential option of upgrading Israels 25 F-15I Strike Eagles to a similar standard offers an additional consideration.
On the flip side, the resulting aircraft would offer significantly less stealth than the F-22, and less than the F-35A as well. This would make precision strike attacks against advanced air defense systems more difficult. It would also lack the suite of integrated, embedded multi-spectral sensors, which reach their modern apotheosis on the F-35A.
April 17/09: Haaretz reports that Israels F-35 negotiations are still bogged down, with cost and more so, technology transfer and control as the key issues.
March 19/09: The Jerusalem Post relays word from Israels Ministry of Defense, who said that Israeli systems have already been installed in the F-35
. We are holding further discussions to install further systems.
US-built models of the jet would incorporate Israeli-made data links, radios and other command and control equipment, but would reportedly exclude an Israeli-made electronic warfare suite due to the high cost of integrating the system into the plane.
March 17/09: Boeing unveils the F-15SE Silent Eagle variant. The aircraft has slightly canted vertical tails to improve aerodynamics and reduce weight, some minor radar shaping work, the addition of coatings to improve radar signature further, and a pair of conformal fuel tanks with cut-in chambers for 2 air-to-air missiles each, or air-to-ground weapons like the 500 pound JDAM and 250 pound GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb. The tanks would be swappable for traditional conformal tanks if desired, and weapons could also be carried externally. BAEs DEWS electronic self-protection system would be fitted, along with Raytheons AN/APG-63v3 radar that will equip all Singaporean F-15s and be retrofitted to the American fleet.
The intent appears to be to offer a budget Raptor in the $120 million range, with a basic radar signature thats competitive with newer fighters like the similarly-priced Eurofighter Typhoon. Advantages would include better radar signature when internal carriage is used for long combat air patrols or limited precision strikes, a superior and proven AESA radar, longer range, and more total carriage capacity if necessary. On the flip side, it would not provide the same maneuverability options as canard equipped contenders like EADS Eurofighter or Dassaults Rafale. The total package would come closer to parity with the SU-30MKI/M and subsequent versions of Sukhois offerings, but may or may not measure up against longer-term opponents like Sukhois PAK-FA or Chinas J-XX. From Boeings release:
Boeing has completed a conceptual prototype of the CFT internal-carriage concept, and plans to flight-test a prototype by the first quarter of 2010, including a live missile launch. The design, development, and test of this internal carriage system are available as a collaborative project with an international aerospace partner.
March 17/09: Reuters quotes Pentagon official Jon Schreiber, who heads the Joint Strike Fighters international program, concerning potential buys by Israel and Singapore:
I think our system will meet [Israels] requirements with some tweaking, and I think theyre starting to come around to that realization themselves. They have pretty tight budget constraints and were attempting to fit their requirements into their budget
. We expect to get a revised letter of request from (Israel) within the next month or so
March 14-15/09: Dave Majumdar of Examiner.com proposes sending Israel the USAs recently-decommissioned F-117A stealth attack aircraft, in order to meet Israels needs immediately and give them breathing room to buy the F-35 at a less expensive stage. That might be an interesting policy move for the USA, but its not in Lockheed Martins interest to do so. Part 1: The Problem | Part 2: The Solution.
Feb 25/09: Aviation Week quotes an Israeli Air Force general who says the F-35s price is the biggest issue, industrial participation industries is 2nd, and the tiff about replacing U.S. electronic warfare systems with local products is 3rd.
The report adds that Elta is expected to provide its own AESA radar to replace the APG-81, without U.S. complaint, but the price tag of more than $100 million remains the biggest problem.
Feb 10/09: Aviation Weeks Ares publishes JSF Secrets to Stay Secret:
After a long period of obtuse answers about whether foreign customers would be able to put their own systems in F-35 or customize the software themselves, the issue has been clarified.
No, says Maj. Gen. Charles Davis, program executive officers of the Joint Strike Fighter program
. They are going to buy aircraft that have basically the same capability as all the others, Davis says. They are trying to do a requirements analyses for future missions. Those mission [refinements] would be submitted through Lockheed Martin [and other contractors]. That [customization] is doable through software. It is not doable by Israelis sticking boxes in the airplane. [Elbit and Elta being involved] is not an option
The Jerusalem Post notes that this is a significant departure; Israeli F-15s and F-16s have all been modified to carry Israeli electronic warfare, radars, munitions, and command and control systems. Israel believes that electronic warfare in particular must be local and flexible, in order to counter local, evolving threats in a timely way, rather than suffering on someone elses schedule. Its weapons are another significant area of departure, and have become successful exports while offering their own form of insurance against both countermeasures and foreign diktat. In this case, however:
....the US refused to conduct the negotiations [on these issues] with the [Israeli] MOD until an announcement that it would procure the plane had been made. The announcement was made in October in an official request to the Pentagon.
A defense industry source familiar with the negotiations between Israel and the US said that the talks were tough but predicted that a deal would be reached in the coming months and that Israel would finally place an official order.
Feb 7/09: In a talk at the Brooking Institution, JSF program head USAF Maj.-Gen. Charles R. Davis has admitted that that the average cost of F-35 fighters will range from $80 90 million in current dollars, but IDF sources tell the Jerusalem Post that they believe the cost per aircraft will exceed $100 million, making it very difficult for Israel to follow through with its initial intention to purchase 75 aircraft. Jerusalem Post.
Nov 9/08: Israel remains relatively unaffected by the global financial crunch, has $3 billion per year in military aid dollars to spend within the United States, and faces growing regional threats to its existence. Lockheed Martin is seeking to finalize early orders for the F-35, in order to assure production. It seems like a natural fit. Israel is only an F-35 security cooperation partner, however, and its HMDS helmet-mounted display technology is its only contribution to date.
Israel traditionally incorporates an array of its technologies and weapons into American-bought fighters. A Reuters report adds that:
A Lockheed source said seven Israeli companies had already been contracted to contribute to the [Israeli F-35] project.
On the other hand, uncertainty over the breadth of and timing that integration, questions about F-35 delivery schedules, and pricing issues are all working against contract negotiations. There are even reports that Israel is considering a renewed request for the $180 million F-22A, which could be delivered by 2011, or for additional purchases of upgraded F-16s instead.
Reuters reports that CEO Robert Stevens visited Israel in early November to lobby for an early 2009 contract, and advanced the argument that an earlier buy would translate into greater participation. The argument is also being used that Israeli investment in technology inserts would become potential export options for other F-35 customers, as was the case with the F-16. On the other hand, Defense News quoted an official in the IDF General Staff as saying that
Its unbelievable, first it was $40 million to $50 million, and then they [the IAF] told us $70 million to $80 million. Now, were looking at nearly three times that amount, and whos to say it wont continue to climb?
Nov 10/08: Flight International reports that sticker shock over the proposed $200 million per plane price of F-35As, and a need for rapid delivery, may push Israel to renew its F-22EX request with the new Obama administration. An excerpt:
This aircraft can be delivered in two years if the deal is approved [DID: 2011, vs. 2012-14 for F-35s], and that is very important for the security of Israel, comments one Israeli source.
Oct 16/08: The Jerusalem Post reports that:
According to the officials, the IDF will likely hold off signing an official contract with the US Air Force to buy the jet, also known as the F-35, until the economic situation becomes clearer
. One official said it was possible that if orders dropped, the cost of the plane would increase and that as a result Israel would need to reconsider the number of planes it will buy.
Sept 26/08: the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] Israel official request to buy an initial 25 F-35A Joint Strike Fighters, with an option to purchase at a later date an additional 50 F-35A or F-35B Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft. The estimated cost is $15.2 billion if all options are exercised, or about $200 million per plane as the in-service cost.
While the notice states that the aircraft could contain either the Pratt and Whitney F-135 engine or General Electric/Rolls Royces F-136 engine, in practice, the F135s development and testing is far ahead of its rivals. The initial aircraft are almost certain to contain PWs F135 engines, which raises the odds that any option purchases will also use F135s for fleet commonality.
Israeli F-35s would also be equipped with unspecified Electronic Warfare Systems; Command, Control, Communication, Computers and Intelligence/ Communication, Navigational and Identification (C4I/CNI); Flight Mission Trainer; Weapons Employment Capability, and other Subsystems, Features, and Capabilities; F-35 unique infrared flares; and External Fuel Tanks. These new aircraft would also require: Flight test instrumentation; Unique systems or sovereign requirements; Reprogramming center to add new threats to the F-35 defensive systems; Software development/ integration; Hardware/ Software In-the-Loop Laboratory Capability. Finally, maintenance will involve F-35 Performance Based Logistics services including Autonomic Logistics Global Support System (ALGS); Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS); aircraft ferry and tanker support, support equipment, tools and test equipment, spares and repair parts, personnel training and training equipment, publications and technical documents, U.S. Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services, and other related elements of logistics and program support.
The prime contractors will be Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company in Fort Worth, TX, and either Pratt & Whitney Military Engines in East Hartford, CT (extremely likely) or General Electric Fighter Engine Team in Cincinnati, OH (very unlikely). Because these systems are so new, implementation of this proposed sale will require multiple trips to Israel involving U.S. Government and contractor representatives for technical reviews/support, program management, and training over a period of 15 years. U.S. contractor representatives will be required in Israel to conduct Contractor Engineering Technical Services (CETS) and Autonomic Logistics and Global Support (ALGS) for after-aircraft delivery.
Oct 25/07: Israel may begin taking deliveries of the F-35 in 2012, a couple years earlier than expected and only slightly after the USA begins receiving production aircraft of its own. The timing and technology agreements reportedly came in the wake of a Washington meeting between Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and may represent an attempt to deflect Israeli calls for an export version of the F-22A Raptor, which has more stealth and capability, and whose production line is currently scheduled to close in 2010.
June 21/06: Israels globes Online interviews Brigadier-General Zeev Snir, who confirms that the IAF is looking to replace its F-16s with the F-35, at a cost estimated at at least $5 billion for 100 aircraft, or about $50 million per. That figure was always very questionable, given the F-35 programs price increases and the additional costs associated with placing a new aircraft type in service.
The F-35 also fits into a broader modernization effort. Israel is also reportedly considering several near-term IAF procurements, including a possible buy of 6 C-130J Hercules transports plus associated support & equipment at a cost of about $500 million [requested July 2008, up to $1.9 billion], as well as a $100 million upgrade of Sikorsky CH-53 Super Stallion helicopters to extend their operational lifespan by 20 years. See full Globes Online article.
