Aspen
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Correct, they are trying to force Hamas into a surrender.
I think Hamas or PJI or both will make at least some kind of attempt to hit Tel Aviv tonight. Probably Hamas because I think they have a missile arsenal big enough to knock out Iron Dome for a few minutes while they reload.
If they go for a barrage of 100+ rockets like the 137-5 earlier, some of them will punch through Iron Dome and make it to Tel Aviv. If they do something really big, it will be like 300 rockets and probably 50 will make it through Iron Dome and hit something in Tel Aviv.