Some observations I have read:
-Iran wants Israel to "know its place". They've taken 10 years of airstrikes and strikes on Iranian facilities and silently built up their arsenal. I do believe the moment is now, yes. The Saudis are talking to the Iranians, the Euros and US are heading back to a deal. Only Israel is still playing foil to this, and Iran is exerting military pressure now to tell Israel that you will go along with our domination of the Middle East or else.
-HZ won’t get in a war with Israel that they begin unless they are certain they are an existential threat and outcomes of that war would be in their favor once and for all. But the issue with Hezbollah is that a single provocation can lead to miscalculation. HZ will launch some sort of provocation if Gaza is invaded. They’ll see it as an opportunity, which they have been waiting over a year for. It's not that bad for Hezbollah. Political situation is a bad proxy to judge Hezbollah's stability. There is no point of HZ hiding weapons if they're not going to use them.
-Let's be real. If HZ attacks. There will be no prior warning. We will find out at the same time as any Israeli or Lebanese resident. Although the risk of it is huge with what's happening in Gaza.
-Israel isn’t going to respond to a potential Hezbollah provocation (in the event of a Gaza ground invasion) with mass strikes on Hezbollah’s PGM program. Israel is well aware that that is a red line for Hezbollah and would start a war. Yeah then it’s up to Israel to escalate or no other wise it will just be a skirmish, worst case scenario for Israel is a multiple front war. No matter how aggressive Israel is and try to build deterrence they would swallow a HZ provocation when the times come to prevent what comes next. Hezbollah and Iran have been planning to execute a multiple-front war for a decade now. This is also their now or never moment.
-Israel has to choose between war crimes and whether it is worth Iron Dome getting overwhelmed, because if HZ enters that would happen 100%. If Israel does go into Gaza, HZ will probably send a wave or two of rockets into Israel and say something like "this was our response to X and if you withdraw, we will not continue" type thing.
-Hamas would prefer for Israel to accept new rules of engagement, in fact they're betting on it. If Israel refuses the rules of engagement, then we might head to war. Hamas has definitely indicated that they are not the same Hamas of 7 years ago. Past Gazan wars have been Gazan miscalculations or Israel capitalizing on an 'excuse'. Today is neither of those two.
-Eventually IDF is going to run out of targets that they can hit from the air that have an acceptable collateral risk profile. A ground invasion runs the risk of soldiers being captured, necessitating serious ground ops. Israel will not launch a ground invasion unless they think they can win it. IDF will never report more than the bare minimum of their enemies capabilities.
-Ground operation sounds like puting troops in Gaza for intel/forward operators. Hamas wants IDF trying to occupy Gaza and a humanitarian crisis, I don't think Israel will give them that, just enough troops to hit targets they can't bomb in raids wile sticking to air strikes. A ground invasion cannot happen because then Israel would have to be completely merciless to Hamas & associated groups or it could get very bloody for Israeli soldiers taken captive etc. Israel wanting to enter Gaza will be one of the biggest mistakes, and the factions have been waiting for this moment since the start.
-Rumor at IDF is that an out of the box solution for Israel is seizing control of the southern Egypt-Gaza border, destruction of tunnels. It's a catch 22, a deadlock, valley on both sides scenario, the question is, is there anyone in Israeli defense establishment who knows a better out of the box solution?
