Hassan Al-Somal
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 18, 2015
- Messages
- 6,825
- Reaction score
- -37
- Country
- Location
Exactly. If Hezbollah attacks from Labennon then it will drag whole Labennon population into israeli bombing raids and would have a backlash later. Also israel-usa wants to disarm or roll back Hezbollah weapons build up to reduce future threats. Even they can tell usa to bomb Labennon to degrade Hezbollah with the excuse of damaging ceasefire efforts if there is not a cause that stands high enough in the escalation scale to finish the previous 2006 ceasefire and enter a new war.
It doesnt mean Hezbollah, Pmu or others can't attack israel. They can make it fit into certain legal issues that noone can say anything including usa. For example Golan heights are under israeli occupation. A joint operation with Syrian military and pmu to clean out Golan from israeli occupation can be a possible future operation. Also they reserve the right to strike back at israel when israel strikes them with airplanes for example precision rounds like fateh-110 against their airbases or similar targets. Hezbollah may not claim responsibility or can claim a self defense response against its operations in Golan heights for example. putin wont be saying anything against this if he does not want to contradict his previous stance against israeli aggression. He should stay aside as he did for Azerbaijani reclaim of Karabagh region or openly say he is pro-israel.
However without air defense that needs to be transferred from Iran that would become very costly as well and Syrian Buk batteries cannot cover too much if not repositioned for a Golan operation. Even if Buk batteries are positioned they need shorad vehicles against israeli anti radar ops. Shorad vehicles(crotale variants) are small and can be transferred to Syria easily. Buk can be supplied by Syrian army and later Iran can transfer its sams. These should be planned beforehand and with an escalation ladder can be put into use within a totally legitimate framework that includes responding back against israeli aerial attacks with tactical missiles. If ceasefire is not reached and escalations continue israel would be surrounded from multiple fronts without Hezbollah initiating an attack from Labennon.
What if any of Israel's adversary who joins this war focuses on taking out Israel's airbases? Israel (Occupied Palestine), being a small country, doesn't have big mountains or hardened areas, as far as I can see, that can withstand powerful ballistic or cruise missiles. They're just being too lucky that Palestinians in Gaza don't have the kind of powerful weapons that can take out those air bases. So my question is, if a powerful adversary deploys such a powerful assault and take out those airbases, shouldn't Israel be brought to its knees? They don't have an aircraft carrier, so once those airbases are taken out, those fighter jets would've been useless.
They still have the Jericho missile; but that itself can be deterred as well if an adversary, with tens of thousands of powerful ballistic and cruise missiles, just focusing on taking them out.
Another thing that I can see, Israelis don't look to be the kind of people who could put up with a prolonged war that can cause huge devastation. So any powerful adversary can really turn the tables on them.