Islamist terrorism may end by 2030; hello economic and financial terrorism

[sachin@india]

WASHINGTON: A landmark US intelligence report released on Monday says the "current Islamist phase of terrorism" might end by 2030, but violent terrorism itself is unlikely to die completely and might evolve into bloodless forms of economic and financial terrorism.

Many states might continue to use terrorist group out of a strong sense of insecurity, although the costs to a regime of directly supporting terrorists looks set to become even greater as international cooperation increase, according to the report Global Trends 2030.

But with more widespread access to lethal and disruptive technologies, individuals who are experts in such niche areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest bidder, including terrorists who would focus less on causing mass casualties and more on creating widespread economic and financial disruptions, it warned.

The report has a dismal prognosis for Pakistan, widely considered the epicenter of terrorism, ranking the country 12th among 15 countries that have a high risk of failure in a list that is topped by Somalia and includes Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Bangladesh, which was ranked 11th in the last such report issued in 2008, is now considered stable and has been moved out of the list.

Although the report said South Asia would continue to face internal and external shocks during the next 15-20 years, including tensions between India and Pakistan over resources, it saw New Delhi's "power advantage" relative to Islamabad growing rapidly. India's economy is already nearly eight times as large as Pakistan's; by 2030 that ratio could easily be more than 16-to-1, it said.

In fact, to the likely dismay of Indian planners who factor in Pakistan's economic growth and stability for peace-making prospects, the country does not even find mention as a second level economy such as Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, Mexico, Turkey, that the report countsin a list of middle tier that will also rise by 2030.

"Low growth, rising food prices, and energy shortages will pose stiff challenges to governance in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghanistan's and Pakistan's youth bulges are large -- similar in size to those found in many African countries. When these youth bulges are combined with a slow-growing economy, they portend increased instability," the report warns.

India, the report says, is in a better position, benefiting from higher growth, but it will still be challenged to find jobs for its large youth population. Inequality, lack of infrastructure, and education deficiencies are key weaknesses in India.

"The neighborhood has always had a profound influence on internal developments, increasing the sense of insecurity and bolstering military outlays. Conflict could erupt and spread under numerous scenarios," the report warns, adding that conflicting strategic goals, widespread distrust, and hedging strategies by all the parties will make it difficult for them to develop a strong regional security framework.


Islamist terrorism may end by 2030; hello economic and financial terrorism - The Times of India

 

[Hasbara Buster]

There is already economic and financial terrorism.

 

[Thorough Pro]

Economic terrorism arrived some 50/60 years ago. Read "Confessions of an economic hitman".

 

[T-Rex]

WASHINGTON: A landmark US intelligence report released on Monday says the "current Islamist phase of terrorism" might end by 2030, but violent terrorism itself is unlikely to die completely and might evolve into bloodless forms of economic and financial terrorism.

Many states might continue to use terrorist group out of a strong sense of insecurity, although the costs to a regime of directly supporting terrorists looks set to become even greater as international cooperation increase, according to the report Global Trends 2030.

But with more widespread access to lethal and disruptive technologies, individuals who are experts in such niche areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest bidder, including terrorists who would focus less on causing mass casualties and more on creating widespread economic and financial disruptions, it warned.

The report has a dismal prognosis for Pakistan, widely considered the epicenter of terrorism, ranking the country 12th among 15 countries that have a high risk of failure in a list that is topped by Somalia and includes Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Bangladesh, which was ranked 11th in the last such report issued in 2008, is now considered stable and has been moved out of the list.

Although the report said South Asia would continue to face internal and external shocks during the next 15-20 years, including tensions between India and Pakistan over resources, it saw New Delhi's "power advantage" relative to Islamabad growing rapidly. India's economy is already nearly eight times as large as Pakistan's; by 2030 that ratio could easily be more than 16-to-1, it said.

In fact, to the likely dismay of Indian planners who factor in Pakistan's economic growth and stability for peace-making prospects, the country does not even find mention as a second level economy such as Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, Mexico, Turkey, that the report countsin a list of middle tier that will also rise by 2030.

"Low growth, rising food prices, and energy shortages will pose stiff challenges to governance in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghanistan's and Pakistan's youth bulges are large -- similar in size to those found in many African countries. When these youth bulges are combined with a slow-growing economy, they portend increased instability," the report warns.

India, the report says, is in a better position, benefiting from higher growth, but it will still be challenged to find jobs for its large youth population. Inequality, lack of infrastructure, and education deficiencies are key weaknesses in India.

"The neighborhood has always had a profound influence on internal developments, increasing the sense of insecurity and bolstering military outlays. Conflict could erupt and spread under numerous scenarios," the report warns, adding that conflicting strategic goals, widespread distrust, and hedging strategies by all the parties will make it difficult for them to develop a strong regional security framework.


Islamist terrorism may end by 2030; hello economic and financial terrorism - The Times of India

Do you know when the Hindu terrorism of the RSS type terror outfits will end? How about the zionazi terrorism of israel, is it going to end at the same period?

 

[Hasbara Buster]

"Islamic terrorism" is a western/zionist myth. Non-Muslim terrorism is the biggest problem

Here, see for yourself:

Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Soil by Group, From 1980 to 2005, According to FBI Database

Read more: All Terrorists are Muslims...Except the 94% that Aren't | loonwatch.com

And mind you, we aren't even talking about state terrorism.. just compare western state terrorism to "Islamic" state terrorism and see the difference. Again the West wins hands down, no competition.

 

[Hasbara Buster]

The myth of Muslim support for terror

WASHINGTON
Those who think that Muslim countries and pro-terrorist attitudes go hand-in-hand might be shocked by new polling research: Americans are more approving of terrorist attacks against civilians than any major Muslim country except for Nigeria.

The survey, conducted in December 2006 by the University of Maryland's prestigious Program on International Public Attitudes, shows that only 46 percent of Americans think that "bombing and other attacks intentionally aimed at civilians" are "never justified," while 24 percent believe these attacks are "often or sometimes justified."

Contrast those numbers with 2006 polling results from the world's most-populous Muslim countries – Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria. Terror Free Tomorrow, the organization I lead, found that 74 percent of respondents in Indonesia agreed that terrorist attacks are "never justified"; in Pakistan, that figure was 86 percent; in Bangladesh, 81 percent.

Do these findings mean that Americans are closet terrorist sympathizers?

Hardly. Yet, far too often, Americans and other Westerners seem willing to draw that conclusion about Muslims. Public opinion surveys in the United States and Europe show that nearly half of Westerners associate Islam with violence and Muslims with terrorists. Given the many radicals who commit violence in the name of Islam around the world, that's an understandable polling result.

But these stereotypes, affirmed by simplistic media coverage and many radicals themselves, are not supported by the facts – and they are detrimental to the war on terror. When the West wrongly attributes radical views to all of the world's 1.5 billion Muslims, it perpetuates a myth that has the very real effect of marginalizing critical allies in the war on terror.

Indeed, the far-too-frequent stereotyping of Muslims serves only to reinforce the radical appeal of the small minority of Muslims who peddle hatred of the West and others as authentic religious practice.

Terror Free Tomorrow's 20-plus surveys of Muslim countries in the past two years reveal another surprise: Even among the minority who indicated support for terrorist attacks and Osama bin Laden, most overwhelmingly approved of specific American actions in their own countries. For example, 71 percent of bin Laden supporters in Indonesia and 79 percent in Pakistan said they thought more favorably of the United States as a result of American humanitarian assistance in their countries – not exactly the profile of hard-core terrorist sympathizers. For most people, their professed support of terrorism/bin Laden can be more accurately characterized as a kind of "protest vote" against current US foreign policies, not as a deeply held religious conviction or even an inherently anti- American or anti-Western view.

In truth, the common enemy is violence and terrorism, not Muslims any more than Christians or Jews. Whether recruits to violent causes join gangs in Los Angeles or terrorist cells in Lahore, the enemy is the violence they exalt.

Our surveys show that not only do Muslims reject terrorism as much if not more than Americans, but even those who are sympathetic to radical ideology can be won over by positive American actions that promote goodwill and offer real hope.

America's goal, in partnership with Muslim public opinion, should be to defeat terrorists by isolating them from their own societies. The most effective policies to achieve that goal are the ones that build on our common humanity. And we can start by recognizing that Muslims throughout the world want peace as much as Americans do

The myth of Muslim support for terror / The Christian Science Monitor - CSMonitor.com