IS THERE A CHANCE OF A LIMITED WAR BETWEEN INDIA & PAKISTAN

[IceCold]

Is there a chance of a limited war between India & Pakistan? Let’s take a look at the history of both the countries. The subcontinent under the British rule got partitioned into two independent countries India with Hindu majority and Pakistan with Muslim majority, based on the differences which lied in their culture, religion and society. The Hindu leaders, since the birth of Pakistan, have never accepted Pakistan as a separate country but as a part of united India, and have always tried to harm or destroy Pakistan in whatever way they can in order to materialize their dream of Akhand Bharat (united India). Both the countries have fought four wars. Three were on the still standing issue of Jammu & Kashmir while 1 was to cut Pakistan into half (the war of 1971). The Hindu leaders were so obsessed with their dream that they threw the region into a never ending arms race including nuclear weapons; the 1st test performed in 1974 followed by five more in 1998 when the terrorist extremist party BJP tested nuclear weapons and threatened the very existence of Pakistan, against which Pakistan had no answer but to test it’s own nuclear weapons resulting in a nuclear arms race in South Asia. The Indian government changed from time to time but one thing remained the same in their policy which was to harm Pakistan in any way possible sometimes by war and sometimes by insurgencies. Not only did they try to achieve their objectives by war but also by supporting terrorist organizations e.g. militants in Balochistan in order to weaken Pakistan internally, the massive troop deployment on the Pakistani border in 2002 attributing it to the so called accusation of bomb blast on the Indian parliament on December 13, 2001 although no evidence was ever found to conclude any Pakistani involvement in it and was a self created drama by RAW ( Indian secret agency designated with special assignments for doing terrorist activities in the neighboring countries ) just to pressurize Pakistan and sabotage the freedom struggle of the kashmiris and make it look like terrorists sponsored by Pakistan. The Indian leaders have had a natural tendency of blaming Pakistan for the on going freedom struggle in Kashmir. The Kargil conflict was between the Kashmiri freedom fighters and the occupied force i.e. the Indian army, and as usual the Indian government blamed Pakistan; threatened it with war; dragging Pakistan in the conflict and thus started a bloody skirmish between the two countries. A recent incident of Samjhauta express was also caused by the secret agency of India in which twenty-seven innocent Pakistanis lost their lives and the Indian government did not share any information of the so called on going investigation with there Pakistani counterparts, despite of repeated attempts made by Pakistan for the information exchange. The Farkhor base of the IAF in Tajikistan to surround Pakistan is just another example of what India’s ambitions about Pakistan really are. Pakistan’s president Pervez Musharraf has raised his concerns over this base with the Tajik government on the fact that Indian planes can reach Pakistan within minutes.

It has not just been Pakistan which has been dealing with these problems since existence, but India also has terrorized its smaller neighbors in the past e.g. by supporting the Tamil Tigers (A terrorist organization) which received a variety of support from the Indian government from time to time. The Indian government has been upset about PAF helping the Sri Lankan air force to bomb the positions of the Tamils. India is concerned about the influence of Pakistan extended to these countries and is trying to do everything to counter that influence either by putting pressure over the Sri Lankan government and by allowing the Tamils to smuggle weapons through the sea route which India has been supposedly guarding to protect against Tamils from smuggling weapons into the country.

India’s ambitions to project power in South Asia and for that reason expanding its current stock pile of weapons has put the region into instability while Pakistan on the other hand has to maintain the minimum deterrence to counter India’s growing military power in the region which has not only posed threats to Pakistan alone but to other nations too. The test of Agni 3 to strike China represents quite clearly how possessed the Indian leaders really are to project power in the region.

A peace process is now being going on between Indian & Pakistan. Since both countries are now nuclear powers and have come to an understanding to resolve there disputes by talks and therefore there have been several rounds of talks and back channel diplomacy between the two sides to help built confidence measures between the two countries and also enhance bilateral cooperation. The president of Pakistan has come forward with many suggestions to his Indian counterpart to help resolve the Kashmir issue which has been the route cause of conflicts between the two sides and now it’s the Indian side that needs to give a positive response. So in the light of what has happened in the past and what is going on between the two sides at present, what may then be the likely factors that may start a limited conflict or even a full scale war in the future between the two countries and may turn this war into a nuclear conflict?
I would request the senior members from both the sides to express their views and thoughts over this issue and my request to other members from both sides is to please post positive thoughts and criticism on the thread and not to turn it into a flame war as has happened with previous threads of this kind.

Regards
IceCold

 

[solid snake]

In recent years, both Pakistan and India have been registering impressive economic growth. They're becoming the fastest growing economies in Asia. At this moment in time, I don't think it is in the interests of either nation to be at war, even limited war. Pakistan has far too many internal issues to take care of, and we need to insure the establishment of lasting democracy. If there is a war, foreign investment in both countries will dry up like a tree in a desert. The world is afraid of a war between these two nuclear armed rivals, and limited war could easily escalate into full-fledged war.

Both countries have done their fair share of secret subversive activities. It is time to let the economic growth continue, neither country can afford to mess up this great chance of becoming Asian Tigers.

A much bigger prospect is war between the USA and Iran. In such a scenario, the US might ask Pakistan to help. If there is a full-fledged invasion, will Pakistan let the US use it's bases and even contribute troops for the invasion? If we say no, the US might slap sanctions on us again and our F-16s that we have paid for will become embargoed again. Our economy will have the life choked out of it while India will continue to roll on. If we say yes, mullah's will incite people to cause riots, they will spew the usual non-sense about America the evil and killings will start inside Pakistan. If we send troops, a lot of them will die in Iran. So let us hope there is no war between the US and Iran because that will serve to destabalize (relatively) the region very much.

 

[BATMAN]

War chances are always there but chances are better to win if circumstances are favorable.
I would start comparing possiblities and circumstances of previous wars.
1- There is no doubt India is awiating for the opportune moment to attack Pakistan. Many opinion reports from India can be made available and we have witnessed Indian politicians using this desire as a very effective tool in India to win popular public vote. Now if India don't go to war congress cannot win next election. I even remember many Indian members saying Indians wish destruction of Pakistan.
2- Pakistan is going through internal political crisis and being an Islamic state does not enjoy a popular western support as well.
Where as India hit jackpot and is been rewarded with WMD and other modern military hardware, for its hate record towards Islam and Muslims.
There were no obvious military threats to India which could be seen as a reason for the sudden and recent arms aqusitions and most of those arms are of offensive nature. Recent aqusitions involve almost every thing, Tanks, Strike role figther jets, various long range missiles.
3- Recently IA has suddenly found involved in many subsequent Military excercises one was conducted near Pakistan border and was a perfect rehersal for war.
4- Recent success of Pakistan defence industries in limited circumstances are being considered as a future threat. Assuming, if peace persist for another 10 years time and Pakistan defence industry continue to grow at least with the same pace, this may clearly sound an alarm bell to Indians. I think they have already analysed it.
At few occasions in past India has seeked foreign help to bomb the limited R&D labs of Pakistan, luckily it didn't materialised.
5-India wants to sell its defence products to third world countries but highly competitive Pakistani defence products can only be beated by bombing and all sales of Indiian defence products after the war will compensate India for the loss to national exchequre by DRDO.
6- Indian media is also driven by the popular anti-Pakistan sentiment has suddenly increased its anti-Pakistan reporting and RAW always has been very handy to providing some stories to raise this hate to next higher level.
7- Suddenly Indians have backed out of peace process with the usuall blame of Kashmir terroroism, actually they planned to give war a chance they are waiting for regime change in Pakistan.
8- Very recently for the first time India has sent hundereds of commandos in Afghanistan. which followed by recent increase of anti Musharraf political compaign, activities of hardliners and increased bomb blasts. They could be only bussy passing on intelligence information to al-qaeeda terrorists or raising an army of anti Pakistan mullahs.
9- Why India and Pakistan had no war in 3 decades the reason was the cold war and India suddenly was in the wrong block.
Now, the situation is changed and for the first time Indians feel that they enjoy the military support of US. India would like to exploit this opportunity it to its fullest. This is the single most compelling reason for Indians to go at war.
9- Any further wait for war would made Pakistan military even stronger hence making it difficult for Indians to realise there dreams of destruction of Pakistan.
10- What was on board the USS navy ship NIMITZ which remained on Indian shore for 3 days. It was not there for playing foot ball match with pretty girls of chennai. Only reason could be to unload the ship.
11- Pakistan's support to Iran over its neuclear enrichment and India's support against it also tells us a story of interests.
12- China is another common enemy to both India and US which also would ensure full US support to India agaist Pakistan in any war senario. So, Indians believe that if they don't find a reason for war than they can creat one.
13- India's interest to access the natural resources of central asia without involving Iran is another old Indian desire.

If in future I found more hints of war I will not hesitate to post on this thread.

 

[bhangra12345]

War chances are always there but chances are better to win if circumstances are favorable.
I would start comparing possiblities and circumstances of previous wars.
1- There is no doubt India is awiating for the opportune moment to attack Pakistan. Many opinion reports from India can be made available and we have witnessed Indian politicians using this desire as a very effective tool in India to win popular public vote. Now if India don't go to war congress cannot win next election. I even remember many Indian members saying Indians wish destruction of Pakistan.

Nah, the most opportune moment was from 1972 to 1985(before pakistan developed nuclear bomb). Why didnt we do it, then? We dont gain anything boss. Even now, the question is, is the war worth its costs??????? What are the strategic aims which we realize by "conducting" a war? Basically nothing. By "showing off" that we are ready for a war is completely different. Operation Parakram was not about conducting a war, it was about showing that we were ready for a war even in nuclear conditions. You have to say that we are ready for aar-paar ki ladai. Whether we want to do it, no. Get this difference.
It was about saying to Pakistan, dont think that now you have got a nuke, we wont fight you. Thats about what it wanted to say(apart from its aim on reducing terrorism).

2- Pakistan is going through internal political crisis and being an Islamic state does not enjoy a popular western support as well.
Where as India hit jackpot and is been rewarded with WMD and other modern military hardware, for its hate record towards Islam and Muslims.
There were no obvious military threats to India which could be seen as a reason for the sudden and recent arms aqusitions and most of those arms are of offensive nature. Recent aqusitions involve almost every thing, Tanks, Strike role figther jets, various long range missiles.

Yaa, Pakistan is not a big threat anymore. Popular western support will not be with us if we attack Pakistan, simply because west will not like interference in afghanistan. pcch...

3- Recently IA has suddenly found involved in many subsequent Military excercises one was conducted near Pakistan border and was a perfect rehersal for war.

Many more exercises were conducted in 80s, when actually I think the army chief and the defence minister had to rush to china to pacify them that we dont have the intention to attack.

4- Recent success of Pakistan defence industries in limited circumstances are being considered as a future threat. Assuming, if peace persist for another 10 years time and Pakistan defence industry continue to grow at least with the same pace, this may clearly sound an alarm bell to Indians. I think they have already analysed it.
At few occasions in past India has seeked foreign help to bomb the limited R&D labs of Pakistan, luckily it didn't materialised.

Our defence industries are growing faster than yours. So as years progress, the gap will become larger, why do we want attack when there is less gap? illogical isnt it. Foreign help for bombing Pakistan, we can ensure local superiority in any area of Pakistan, if we so wish. It was so since 70s. Why would we request foreign help?

5-India wants to sell its defence products to third world countries but highly competitive Pakistani defence products can only be beated by bombing and all sales of Indiian defence products after the war will compensate India for the loss to national exchequre by DRDO.

heard of goebell?

6- Indian media is also driven by the popular anti-Pakistan sentiment has suddenly increased its anti-Pakistan reporting and RAW always has been very handy to providing some stories to raise this hate to next higher level.

I will better not speak about ISI.

7- Suddenly Indians have backed out of peace process with the usuall blame of Kashmir terroroism, actually they planned to give war a chance they are waiting for regime change in Pakistan.

What will be the benefit of regime change in Pakistan to India, explain it in a specific sense.

8- Very recently for the first time India has sent hundereds of commandos in Afghanistan. which followed by recent increase of anti Musharraf political compaign, activities of hardliners and increased bomb blasts. They could be only bussy passing on intelligence information to al-qaeeda terrorists or raising an army of anti Pakistan mullahs.

Well upto now you have only pro pakistani mullahs, afraid that you might get competetion? not that I believe the above.

9- Why India and Pakistan had no war in 3 decades the reason was the cold war and India suddenly was in the wrong block.
Now, the situation is changed and for the first time Indians feel that they enjoy the military support of US. India would like to exploit this opportunity it to its fullest. This is the single most compelling reason for Indians to go at war.

We had wars when the cold war was at its peak. Even today, US defence cooperation is not treated as friendly by India. The lurking suspicion still persists.

9- Any further wait for war would made Pakistan military even stronger hence making it difficult for Indians to realise there dreams of destruction of Pakistan.

Nah, the gap between India and Pakistan is only growing wider. The future scenario is our advantage. Why do we wish not to use it?

10- What was on board the USS navy ship NIMITZ which remained on Indian shore for 3 days. It was not there for playing foot ball match with pretty girls of chennai. Only reason could be to unload the ship.

Instead of using these huge carriers which generate huge publicity, it is better to use commercial shipping for any kind of these activities. Hint: cover is higher. So Nimitz transferring something is not a very good scene, if you understand what I am saying

11- Pakistan's support to Iran over its neuclear enrichment and India's support against it also tells us a story of interests.

Sorry guyz, Pakistan also doesnt support Iran over that issue. Infact India is more closer to Iran than Pakistan.

12- China is another common enemy to both India and US which also would ensure full US support to India agaist Pakistan in any war senario. So, Indians believe that if they don't find a reason for war than they can creat one.

Yes, any one who wishes a war, can create one. There is no doubt. The thing is why should India fight now? Its future defence is rosier than Pakistan. WHen all it has to do is wait, why should it think to do it right now.

13- India's interest to access the natural resources of central asia without involving Iran is another old Indian desire.

without invoving Iran, is not right. without involving Pakistan is right.

 

[Chrome9]

Sorry guyz, Pakistan also doesnt support Iran over that issue. Infact India is more closer to Iran than Pakistan.

Where did you get that from? I always thought Pakista supported Iran's quest for "peaceful" nuclear technology. If you noticed India voted against Iran's favour. I wouldn't say India is all that close to Iran. Not to mention in History Iran has helped Pakistan fighting against India.

 

[HAIDER]

well Pak gave them all centrifuge tech and also plan..

 

[KashifAsrar]

The article right from top to bottom is nothing but sabre rattling against India. All propaganda stuff for domestic consumption.
Kashif

 

[IceCold]

The article right from top to bottom is nothing but sabre rattling against India. All propaganda stuff for domestic consumption.
Kashif

Really kashif!!!! I can agree that the facts written are very bitter but then again i havent made these facts, they are wht history tells us about if otherwise.

 

[niaz]

If one analyses the situation, war could have occurred when both armies were eye ball to eye during the last BJP stint. After that threat has diminished.

Reason is simple; India's conventional superiority is overwhelming both in quantity as well as quality in nearly all branches of the armed forces. A-symmetery is least in land forces and most in naval forces. In any war, Pakistani nuclear threshhold is likely to be reached earlier. India has openly said that she will not nuke first; thus even though Pakistan may suffer more from Indian retaliation; even one or two nuke strikes on any Indian city are likely to cause havoc.

Yes there is always a possibility but not the probablity.

 

[bhangra12345]

Where did you get that from? I always thought Pakista supported Iran's quest for "peaceful" nuclear technology. If you noticed India voted against Iran's favour. I wouldn't say India is all that close to Iran. Not to mention in History Iran has helped Pakistan fighting against India.

Look Chrome, think strategically. Look through the sugar coated words of babudom.

i) Is it in Pakistan's interest to have a neighbour as a nuclear state.- no
ii) Iran is Shia whereas Pakistan is sunni. Does Pakistan want a shia competitor - no
iii) Pakistan no.1 ally is Saudi, physiologically. Saudi's influence is unchallenged in sunni world. But who moulds shias aims, its iran. i.e. Iran stops saudi from being unchallenged in muslim world. would Saudi want iran to be nuclear- a clear cut no. Everyone knows that it was Saudi who funded the Pakistan nuclear aim. Would it allow Pakistan to throw this away? -No
iv)Is it in Pakistan's interest to lose the status of being the sole muslim nuclear power -no.

Pakistan did not take a clear public stand on the iran nuclear issue simply because it didnt had to. It was not a member of NSG. So an ambigious stand was enough. Where as India had to vote.

You can say Iran relations with respect to India is a sort of balance for Saudi and Pakistan's relation. The only thing the relationship between India and Iran is not so much deeper.

In the order of questions posted above, I would rank them as- i),iv),iii),ii).

 

[blitz]

Could there be a limited war ? Sure
Read up India's 'Cold Start' doctrine.

 

[bhangra12345]

Indias relation ship with Iran is on a much higher level than Pakistan.

For example, the honour of being the chief guest of Republic Day is given to either close friends or people with whom our strategic imperatives mean we want to be much more close to them. This was never given to a american president. But immediately after Bush went off, it was given to Putin. Similarly

In January 2003, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami was the chief guest at India's Republic Day Parade - an honor Delhi reserves for its closest friends.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GA12Df05.html

India and Iran have an general bilateral cooperation agreement while Pakistan has what should I say MOU for achieving the same in do you believe it, environmental cooperation. Iran's presidents visit to India and our primeminister's visits happen since around 1990 more than 6 times in total.

Another important turning point in Iran-Pakistan relations transpired with president Mohammad Khatami's visit to Pakistan in December 2002, the first by an Iranian president in 10 years.

This basically means almost immediately from Pakistan he visited India for republic day.

Relations with India are an important issue that affects Iranian-Pakistani relations. Pakistan is concerned about the North-South Corridor that Iran and India seek to establish together with Russia. In the light of Iran's good relations with India, Pakistan is concerned about the impact of those relations on its disputes with India - over the core issue of Kashmir as well as other regional and geopolitical issues.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HA13Df03.html

You forget one of the most important things. Which country wants to invade iran? - US.
From where will it invade?-any guesses, Hint:a country with sea ports and boundary attached to Iran. --------------------------Pakistan.

 

[PakForce Unlimited]

Let us just hope that the two countries get more economically dependent on each other and their economies will still flourish, so the people within the respective countries could get better living conditions. Its been almost 60 years now, south Asia has seen to much blood and suffering. Think where we could be now, if we coooperated from the first day!

 

[Cheetah786]

Indias relation ship with Iran is on a much higher level than Pakistan.

For example, the honour of being the chief guest of Republic Day is given to either close friends or people with whom our strategic imperatives mean we want to be much more close to them. This was never given to a american president. But immediately after Bush went off, it was given to Putin. Similarly


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GA12Df05.html

India and Iran have an general bilateral cooperation agreement while Pakistan has what should I say MOU for achieving the same in do you believe it, environmental cooperation. Iran's presidents visit to India and our primeminister's visits happen since around 1990 more than 6 times in total.

This basically means almost immediately from Pakistan he visited India for republic day.


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HA13Df03.html

You forget one of the most important things. Which country wants to invade iran? - US.
From where will it invade?-any guesses, Hint:a country with sea ports and boundary attached to Iran. --------------------------Pakistan.

which country changed its vote and voted against Iran to favor its new found friend hint----.
which country recently hosted American nuclear powered carrier.hint----.
which country is moving more and more closer to USA then any other country in the region.hint----.
and the last point which country wants to invade Iran.we can call it India's new best friend.common u no the name.
oh last i checked it was Pakistan that helped Iranians with there nuclear programme.
but you are right.India and Iran's are the best friend.what have India done for Iran lately.oh yes Iranian president was guest of Honor.
and we all no Iranians are stupid they don't see India going in bed with USA more and more.

you are remmebering yesterday when india was partners with russia and so was iran.but today is a different ball game.
india like it or not is moving towards usa''as a pakistani i coudnt be happier''.i doubt after all the help uncle sam is extending to india be a economic help or military what ever.they will allow india to be friends with russia at the same time.
india will have to keep uncle sams interest in mind when making her foreign policy.

As far as chances of war between 2 countries are concerned i think they are zero.
as in case of war chances of both sides glowing in the dark for 1000s of years is 2 real.for that reason i hope there is no war.and i doubt there is stupids sitting in dehli and islamabad iching to glow.

 

[Cheetah786]

Let us just hope that the two countries get more economically dependent on each other and their economies will still flourish, so the people within the respective countries could get better living conditions. Its been almost 60 years now, south Asia has seen to much blood and suffering. Think where we could be now, if we coooperated from the first day!

i remember last year standing at a spot in France.where Germans and French fought like cats and dogs.
today there isn't even a single soldier on there borders.there economies in some cases to much inner connected.
standing at that spot now u cant tell these 2 were ever at war.
Canada USA same story.
time changes every thing.i doubt this will happen for India and Pakistan in our life time.but iam hoping iam wrong.
trade between India and Pakistan if given the chance could easily reach a $billion or more a day.