Is the moment of truth upon us?

[313ghazi]

Abbas Stanakzai went to the Indian embassy in Qatar to meet the Indian diplomats to allay their concerns vis a vis the use of Afghan soil against Indian interests. On the one hand, we have daily fire raids emanating from Afghan soil (3-4 in as many days) on our border posts resulting in casualties, while Taliban spokesperson tells us that TTP is our problem and that at a point in the future, once a political setup emerges, TTA would establish a mechanism (vague) whereby the Afghan border region would not be allowed to be used against Pakistan. The bottom line is that we face attrition daily, while India has not lost a single man until now due to the Afghan endgame. Chahbahar and ancillary infrastructure that linked land routes to the ports through Afghanistan into Iran were allowed to develop without any pressure from our side. Meanwhile, the highly securitized Gwadar has seen terrorist attacks. The regions at CPEC's Western alignment nodes see frequent terrorist attacks even after raising an entire division (SSD). Was it a strategic blunder to "allow" unimpeded development of Chahbahar port (and over the land connecting routes) during the Western presence in Afghanistan that could one day reduce Afghan dependence on Pakistan to access the world? How are we going to exert influence on the Afghan Taliban now to achieve our objectives? Most Western capitals are more than willing to work with TTA. Chahbahar has eroded our leverage as the transit state over Afghanistan as well.

This is the auqat of nations with chutiya leadership. If the idiots in our govt and our military were proactive people we wouldn't be looking at assurances from a ragtag bunch to guerilla forces who are suddenly tasked with governance.

We'd make the border a wall of fire. Smart city would be standard in all our large cities and towns. We'd be using the face recognition tech of the Chinese to track all people of interest, we'd have narrowed down the cash economy forcing people to transact in traceable ways. We'd be aggressively deporting anyone with dodgy paperwork - we'd have hung those responsible for selling NADRA cards, our security forces uniforms would not for sale in the bazaar, and in the nearly two decades of terrorist attacks and targeted killings - hundreds of anti state personalities would have been killed in "terrorist" attacks.

Unfortunately they all just scratch thier balls and sniff there fingers.

 

[Nasr]

Abbas Stanakzai went to the Indian embassy in Qatar to meet the Indian diplomats to allay their concerns vis a vis the use of Afghan soil against Indian interests. On the one hand, we have daily fire raids emanating from Afghan soil (3-4 in as many days) on our border posts resulting in casualties, while Taliban spokesperson tells us that TTP is our problem and that at a point in the future, once a political setup emerges, TTA would establish a mechanism (vague) whereby the Afghan border region would not be allowed to be used against Pakistan. The bottom line is that we face attrition daily, while India has not lost a single man until now due to the Afghan endgame. Chahbahar and ancillary infrastructure that linked land routes to the ports through Afghanistan into Iran were allowed to develop without any pressure from our side. Meanwhile, the highly securitized Gwadar has seen terrorist attacks. The regions at CPEC's Western alignment nodes see frequent terrorist attacks even after raising an entire division (SSD). Was it a strategic blunder to "allow" unimpeded development of Chahbahar port (and over the land connecting routes) during the Western presence in Afghanistan that could one day reduce Afghan dependence on Pakistan to access the world? How are we going to exert influence on the Afghan Taliban now to achieve our objectives? Most Western capitals are more than willing to work with TTA. Chahbahar has eroded our leverage as the transit state over Afghanistan as well.

You need to give this time and allow the Afghan Mujahideen to establish themselves with administrative set-up and governance of the country. They have been fighting for their freedom for 42 years, 20 of which was against the combined Western Military and Clandestine forces. The Afghan people need our help, not a rush up. For Pakistan it is important to first work with our neighbor, Iran to address the situation in Baluchistan. Better coordination, communication and understanding will bare fruit.

With Afghan Mujahideen Government established, we can coordinate with China, Russia and Iran to help reconstruct the country.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

They even expressed concerns about fencing in Hum Pushto interview recently. Are these signs positive?

you are thinking too much into this. They havent said anything concrete on this yet. They want to ease up on movement but only when it works well for both sides.

 

[TNT]

Incorrect premise. Nobody expects the talis to fight on our behalf with India. We can handle our Eastern neighbor. We just expect them to not allow TTP to use the Afghan territory as a launching pad for mischief across our Western border. We can focus on the Eastern front once the Western border is pacified. You missed the plot altogether. Indians have the habit of believing in their own lies, the biggest one going around these days is Pakistani grand design where talis are to fight for Pakistan in Kashmir. Furthest from the truth.

When would they be in the position to meet our demands? Secondly, do you believe expecting that a neighbor's soil not be used against you and using your influence towards that end is equivalent to making the regime there your puppet? Is it not a just demand? If it is, how come you reach the conclusion that we are trying to convert the talis into our puppets? I hope you have cogent responses to these questions since you carry the torch of rationality here.
A clarification:

When I talk about leverage over TTA/Afghanistan, that is only in the context of not allowing TTP to operate from Afghan territory. I must not be mistaken as someone who believes in interfering in the affairs/internal politics or power struggles in neighboring countries.

But in ur previous posts u suggested not to let them gain access to chabahar so they keep relying on us for sea route. What you suggest gives a vibe of you not wanting them to become an independent nation, which most of the afghans think abt Pakistan and hence the hatred. Afghanistan itself would want to develop and for that, it will need to have good working relations with its neighbors. We also cannot blame others for our TTP problem, if we secure our borders, we dont need to worry, the same way we dnt need to worry abt eastern border, as u mentioned. The main source for TTP is india, so better focus on them and not alienate another afghan regime that actually are our allies. Also its talib and taliban not talis, maybe u have a slip tongue or maybe it shows ur bias, in any case, it makes ur argument immature.

 

[313ghazi]

You need to give this time and allow the Afghan Mujahideen to establish themselves with administrative set-up and governance of the country. They have been fighting for their freedom for 42 years, 20 of which was against the combined Western Military and Clandestine forces. The Afghan people need our help, not a rush up. For Pakistan it is important to first work with our neighbor, Iran to address the situation in Baluchistan. Better coordination, communication and understanding will bare fruit.

With Afghan Mujahideen Government established, we can coordinate with China, Russia and Iran to help reconstruct the country.

Exactly. This is our govt trying to outsource its responsibilities for security.

 

[Vapnope]

@Pak Nationalist TTP is bit more than Indian funding yet our people (In power) continue to see TTP from Indian lense. The reality is that TTP has reached agreement with certain Taliban factions to live in Afghanistan while they continue to wage war against Pakistan. Pakistan should not make peace deal with TTP even when Talib boys would want that. Any peace deal with be short lived and it would only cause more complications with time. Our message to Kabul should be clear i.e. Hunt TTP down or let us do it inside Afghanistan. We cannot wait for talibs to settle down to decide about TTP.

 

[FCPX]

What the Taliban have clearly stated:
They will not allow transnational terrorism against any country by any group based in Afg.
They will not allow foreign troops in Afg nor any action by foreign troops in Afg.
They want friendly relations with all countries including India.
They will not take any action against TTP and Pakistan must directly talk to TTP to solve its issues with them.
They are against border fencing, they want open borders with Pak and free movement.

What Pak got from the Taliban victory:
Eliminated the source of overt support of anti Pak groups.
Vindicated its stand on the corrupt Afg Nat govt (Ghani et al) and the needless foreign invasions.
Have the possibility of a Pak friendly Afg govt but the extent of this has to be determined based on the final setup and conduct of the new Afg govt.
Some psychological effect on India implying hordes of Taliban descending in to Kashmir. This was never factually correct but mainly hyped by the Indian media and blindly accepted by some in Pak.
Some psychological and material effect of a sort of victory against India.

What the future may hold?
IS-K & AQ will be a growing threat to both Afg and Pak.
Pak should have good ties with Afg and trade and economic activities should increase but Pak also needs to be wary of Taliban hyper nationalism (regarding issues like Durand line recognition & fencing) and whether TTP is able to intensify its terror in Pak while using Afg as a R&R destination safe from Pak retribution.
India will try to have good economic ties with Afg and it has the economic clout to spend $$$ on aid plus has the backing of the West.
India will continue to try and destabilize Pak (BLA etc).
Any pipeline or serious investment in Afg will heavily depend on its political and social conditions, impossible to predict at this point.
The West will be looking at all possible means to make the Taliban fail and to pin some blame on Pak for the West's 2 decade long failure in Afg.

 

[Nasr]

Exactly. This is our govt trying to outsource its responsibilities for security.

Pakistan should also be coordinating with the Afghan Mujahideen Government to annihilate isis-k (or whatever these scum call themselves these days).

I recall warning Pakistanis and Afghans, that with Turkey wanting Kabul Airport's security and the Americans+NATO leaving, the snake which is ISIS will come into the spotlight. Last few months and a year, these snakes have been quiet or were put-down by the Afghan Mujahideen. The moment the occupying Western forces were leaving, the bomb attack and suicide attack took place.

I reiterate, ISIS is what Afghans, Pakistanis, Iranians, Chinese and Russians should be focused on. Obliterate ISIS, and the remnants of Western/Middle-Eastern Clandestine agencies will whither away into nothingness.

 

[Death Professor]

Can people stop calling the Taliban, TTA? They aren't a tehreek, their name is solely The Taliban. If you want to extend it then the most you could do is call them Afghan Taliban or AT. Wtf is this bs TTA, THEY ARE NOT TEHREEK-E-TALIBAN AFGHANISTAN. Anyways, too early to make any assumptions, Taliban already have a lot on their plate to handle right now. Governing people without money is an issue far greater than fighting a war. They could discipline themselves and their soldiers, but keeping the Afghan population not die of hunger is a humongous task.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

But in ur previous posts u suggested not to let them gain access to chabahar so they keep relying on us for sea route. What you suggest gives a vibe of you not wanting them to become an independent nation, which most of the afghans think abt Pakistan and hence the hatred. Afghanistan itself would want to develop and for that, it will need to have good working relations with its neighbors. We also cannot blame others for our TTP problem, if we secure our borders, we dont need to worry, the same way we dnt need to worry abt eastern border, as u mentioned. The main source for TTP is india, so better focus on them and not alienate another afghan regime that actually are our allies. Also its talib and taliban not talis, maybe u have a slip tongue or maybe it shows ur bias, in any case, it makes ur argument immature.

Context is important here. I made that comment in the context of TTA not complying with our very just demand and erosion of our leverage on Afghanistan with the availability of an alternative line of communication through Chahbahar. As for Chahbahar, Iranians saw Gwadar as a threat to shipping traffic to bandr abbas and chahbahar and supported insurgents at least initially to undermine developments in Gwadar. If a development made TTA less amenable to our demands, we should have attempted to slow it down at least. It is a historical reality that Afghan soil has been used against Pakistan, this predates TTP even. There is no shame in us looking out for our national interest.

What the Taliban have clearly stated:
They will not allow transnational terrorism against any country by any group based in Afg.
They will not allow foreign troops in Afg nor any action by foreign troops in Afg.
They want friendly relations with all countries including India.
They will not take any action against TTP and Pakistan must directly talk to TTP to solve its issues with them.
They are against border fencing, they want open borders with Pak and free movement.

What Pak got from the Taliban victory:
Eliminated the source of overt support of anti Pak groups.
Vindicated its stand on the corrupt Afg Nat govt (Ghani et al) and the needless foreign invasions.
Have the possibility of a Pak friendly Afg govt but the extent of this has to be determined based on the final setup and conduct of the new Afg govt.
Some psychological effect on India implying hordes of Taliban descending in to Kashmir. This was never factually correct but mainly hyped by the Indian media and blindly accepted by some in Pak.
Some psychological and material effect of a sort of victory against India.

What the future may hold?
IS-K & AQ will be a growing threat to both Afg and Pak.
Pak should have good ties with Afg and trade and economic activities should increase but Pak also needs to be wary of Taliban hyper nationalism (regarding issues like Durand line recognition & fencing) and whether TTP is able to intensify its terror in Pak while using Afg as a R&R destination safe from Pak retribution.
India will try to have good economic ties with Afg and it has the economic clout to spend $$$ on aid plus has the backing of the West.
India will continue to try and destabilize Pak (BLA etc).
Any pipeline or serious investment in Afg will heavily depend on its political and social conditions, impossible to predict at this point.
The West will be looking at all possible means to make the Taliban fail and to pin some blame on Pak for the West's 2 decade long failure in Afg.

Pakistan should resolve its differences with the Taliban (fight or broker deals/capitulate before traitors)? Meanwhile, TTA continues hosting TTP? How exactly would TTA be stopping use of Afghan soil against neighbors if they do not act against players that continue to wage wars from the Afghan territory? This is where the contradiction in TTA's stance lies. I hope I made my point clear here.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

What the Taliban have clearly stated:
They will not allow transnational terrorism against any country by any group based in Afg.
They will not allow foreign troops in Afg nor any action by foreign troops in Afg.
They want friendly relations with all countries including India.
They will not take any action against TTP and Pakistan must directly talk to TTP to solve its issues with them.
They are against border fencing, they want open borders with Pak and free movement.

What Pak got from the Taliban victory:
Eliminated the source of overt support of anti Pak groups.
Vindicated its stand on the corrupt Afg Nat govt (Ghani et al) and the needless foreign invasions.
Have the possibility of a Pak friendly Afg govt but the extent of this has to be determined based on the final setup and conduct of the new Afg govt.
Some psychological effect on India implying hordes of Taliban descending in to Kashmir. This was never factually correct but mainly hyped by the Indian media and blindly accepted by some in Pak.
Some psychological and material effect of a sort of victory against India.

What the future may hold?
IS-K & AQ will be a growing threat to both Afg and Pak.
Pak should have good ties with Afg and trade and economic activities should increase but Pak also needs to be wary of Taliban hyper nationalism (regarding issues like Durand line recognition & fencing) and whether TTP is able to intensify its terror in Pak while using Afg as a R&R destination safe from Pak retribution.
India will try to have good economic ties with Afg and it has the economic clout to spend $$$ on aid plus has the backing of the West.
India will continue to try and destabilize Pak (BLA etc).
Any pipeline or serious investment in Afg will heavily depend on its political and social conditions, impossible to predict at this point.
The West will be looking at all possible means to make the Taliban fail and to pin some blame on Pak for the West's 2 decade long failure in Afg.

Pakistan should resolve its differences with the Taliban (fight or broker deals/capitulate before traitors)? Meanwhile, TTA continues hosting TTP? How exactly would TTA be stopping use of Afghan soil against neighbors if they do not act against players that continue to wage wars from the Afghan territory? This is where the contradiction in TTA's stance lies. I hope I made my point clear here.

@Pak Nationalist TTP is bit more than Indian funding yet our people (In power) continue to see TTP from Indian lense. The reality is that TTP has reached agreement with certain Taliban factions to live in Afghanistan while they continue to wage war against Pakistan. Pakistan should not make peace deal with TTP even when Talib boys would want that. Any peace deal with be short lived and it would only cause more complications with time. Our message to Kabul should be clear i.e. Hunt TTP down or let us do it inside Afghanistan. We cannot wait for talibs to settle down to decide about TTP.

It has both elements, i.e., the ideologically committed fanatical traitors and the treasonous snakes as mercenaries for a bidder wearing religious garb. Inqilab e Mehsud is giving another direction to TTP terrorism. New TTP amir is trying to emulate TTA. He wants to morph TTP into a religious-nationalist outfit. There is talk about freeing tribal districts from Pakistan. TTP is hailing Baloch secessionist terrorists. TTA is dropping hints that it wants Pakistan to get to a negotiated settlement with TTP. It then says that TTP is not Afghanistan's problem (we would not fight them). If you would not fight them, how in the world will you stop them from using your soil against your neighbor that you repeatedly claim what you want? These points are not being grasped by many. There are strong hints of TTA playing a double game with Pakistan. This is why I say we should have had strong leverage over them as a transit state on which they rely for their survival/regime's longevity.

@Pak Nationalist TTP is bit more than Indian funding yet our people (In power) continue to see TTP from Indian lense. The reality is that TTP has reached agreement with certain Taliban factions to live in Afghanistan while they continue to wage war against Pakistan. Pakistan should not make peace deal with TTP even when Talib boys would want that. Any peace deal with be short lived and it would only cause more complications with time. Our message to Kabul should be clear i.e. Hunt TTP down or let us do it inside Afghanistan. We cannot wait for talibs to settle down to decide about TTP.

It has both elements, i.e., the ideologically committed religiously fanatical traitors and the treasonous snakes as mercenaries for a bidder wearing religious garb. Inqilab e Mehsud is giving another direction to TTP terrorism. New TTP amir is trying to emulate TTA. He wants to morph TTP into a religious-nationalist outfit. There is talk about freeing tribal districts from Pakistan. TTP is hailing Baloch secessionist terrorists. TTA is dropping hints that it wants Pakistan to get to a negotiated settlement with TTP. It then says that TTP is not Afghanistan's problem (we would not fight them). If you would not fight them, how in the world will you stop them from using your soil against your neighbor that you repeatedly claim what you want? These points are not being grasped by many. There are strong hints of TTA playing a double game with Pakistan. This is why I say we should have had strong leverage over them as a transit state on which they rely for their survival/regime's longevity.

 

[TNT]

Context is important here. I made that comment in the context of TTA not complying with our very just demand and erosion of our leverage on Afghanistan with the availability of an alternative line of communication through Chahbahar. As for Chahbahar, Iranians saw Gwadar as a threat to shipping traffic to bandr abbas and chahbahar and supported insurgents at least initially to undermine developments in Gwadar. If a development made TTA less amenable to our demands, we should have attempted to slow it down at least. It is a historical reality that Afghan soil has been used against Pakistan, this predates TTP even. There is no shame in us looking out for our national interest.

Pakistan should resolve its differences with the Taliban (fight or broker deals/capitulate before traitors)? Meanwhile, TTA continues hosting TTP? How exactly would TTA be stopping use of Afghan soil against neighbors if they do not act against players that continue to wage wars from the Afghan territory? This is where the contradiction in TTA's stance lies. I hope I made my point clear here.

The previous afghan govt didn't comply and openly supported baloch separatists and TTP, what did we do and how did we pressure them? What r we doing with the main country behind TTP, ie india??? Iran in reality was never much worried abt gawadar, indian aim was to destabilize Pakistan overall. My point is TTA govt is new and we should give thwm time, they will surely be way better than ghani regime and TTA alone cannot solve our TTP problem along with BLA and others.

 

[Arsalan345]

We should complete all objectives otherwise Taliban in power will be useless for us. TTP is a major threat. India is willing to buy commanders of Talibans. Money is magic. Pakistan should ask taliban to finish off TTP asap. We can't afford daily attacks from afghan soil. We don't have better infrastructure near afghan border. After solving this afghan issue,we should turn our attention towards iran. BLA is also a much bigger threat with safe havens in iran. Brotherly relations should go to hell. save the country first.

 

[FCPX]

Pakistan should resolve its differences with the Taliban (fight or broker deals/capitulate before traitors)? Meanwhile, TTA continues hosting TTP? How exactly would TTA be stopping use of Afghan soil against neighbors if they do not act against players that continue to wage wars from the Afghan territory? This is where the contradiction in TTA's stance lies. I hope I made my point clear here.

I think this is where the potential lies for some issues between IEA and Pak Govt.