Is the moment of truth upon us?

[Pak Nationalist]

Abbas Stanakzai went to the Indian embassy in Qatar to meet the Indian diplomats to allay their concerns vis a vis the use of Afghan soil against Indian interests. On the one hand, we have daily fire raids emanating from Afghan soil (3-4 in as many days) on our border posts resulting in casualties, while Taliban spokesperson tells us that TTP is our problem and that at a point in the future, once a political setup emerges, TTA would establish a mechanism (vague) whereby the Afghan border region would not be allowed to be used against Pakistan. The bottom line is that we face attrition daily, while India has not lost a single man until now due to the Afghan endgame. Chahbahar and ancillary infrastructure that linked land routes to the ports through Afghanistan into Iran were allowed to develop without any pressure from our side. Meanwhile, the highly securitized Gwadar has seen terrorist attacks. The regions at CPEC's Western alignment nodes see frequent terrorist attacks even after raising an entire division (SSD). Was it a strategic blunder to "allow" unimpeded development of Chahbahar port (and over the land connecting routes) during the Western presence in Afghanistan that could one day reduce Afghan dependence on Pakistan to access the world? How are we going to exert influence on the Afghan Taliban now to achieve our objectives? Most Western capitals are more than willing to work with TTA. Chahbahar has eroded our leverage as the transit state over Afghanistan as well.

 

[Pappa Alpha]

The meeting with Stanakzai is India trying to find relevance after being kicked out. I would wait for the dust to settle before commenting on TTP situation.

And about hindering the development of Chahbahar, what do you propose that should have been done? Killing of innocent workers like they do on our side? I'm sorry but if your enemies are subhumans then you don't need to become subhuman yourself. That is not the way.

The only thing we need is that Afghan soil is not used against us (again wait for the dust to settle). TTA have repeatedly assured this.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

The meeting with Stanakzai is India trying to find relevance after being kicked out. I would wait for the dust to settle before commenting on TTP situation.

And about hindering the development of Chahbahar, what do you propose that should have been done? Killing of innocent workers like they do on our side? I'm sorry but if your enemies are subhumans then you don't need to become subhuman yourself. That is not the way.

The only thing we need is that Afghan soil is not used against us (again wait for the dust to settle). TTA have repeatedly assured this.

It hurts to say this, but realpolitik is not a slave to human ethics and morality. I wish it were, but it isn't. If your enemy plays dirty, you play dirtier; that's how you establish deterrence.

 

[SkyWolf]

Abbas Stanakzai went to the Indian embassy to meet the Indian diplomats to allay their concerns vis a vis use of Afghan soil against Indian interests. On the one hand, we have this happening; on the other, we have daily fire raids emanating from Afghan soil (3-4 in as many days) on our border posts resulting in casualties, while Taliban spokesperson tells us that TTP is our problem and that at a point in future once a political setup emerges, TTA would establish a mechanism (vague) whereby the border region would not be allowed to be used against Afghanistan. The bottom line is that we are facing attrition daily, while India has not lost a single man until now due to the Afghan endgame. Chahbahar and ancillary infrastructure that linked land routes to the ports through Afghanistan into Iran were allowed to develop without any pressure from our side. Meanwhile, the highly securitized Gwadar has seen terrorist attacks. The regions that sit at CPEC's Western alignment nodes see frequent terrorist attacks even after raising an entire division (SSD). Was it a strategic blunder to "allow" unimpeded development of Chahbahar port (and over the land connecting routes) during the Western presence in Afghanistan that could one day reduce Afghan dependence on Pakistan to access the world? How are we going to exert influence on the Afghan Taliban now to achieve our objectives? Most Western capitals are more than willing to work with TTA. Chahbahar has eroded our leverage as the transit state over Afghanistan as well.

Why think zero-sum? This idea of being the only option for afghanistan is the wrong way to look at it. We should strive to be the *better* option for afghanistan, iran, china etc.

I know i am talking to a bunch of Army/ISI fanboys but I am sorry -- they have multiple, catastrophic failures along with successes.

I'd rather go with options that put our country in disrepute.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Why think zero-sum? This idea of being the only option for afghanistan is the wrong way to look at it. We should strive to be the *better* option for afghanistan, iran, china etc.

I know i am talking to a bunch of Army/ISI fanboys but I am sorry -- they have multiple, catastrophic failures along with successes.

I'd rather go with options that put our country in disrepute.

I think you meant not to go with options that put the country in disrepute. If the national interest is protected at the expense of lofty ideals and reputations, pragmatism dictates the national interest be safeguarded. One can argue that India has managed to project itself as a benign state (keeping its reputation intact) despite orchestrating the most brutal terrorist violence in our country. You would most probably argue that the size of its economy forces usual defenders of human rights and upholders of international law to look the other way. My response to that is that we could not prosper economically until we have peace within our borders. Remittances and lackluster exports growth are insufficient to prevent us from defaulting in the face of ever-burgeoning import bill and debt reservicing. We need FDI to balance our external sector, for which a conducive law and order situation is one of the prerequisites (not the only one, though). Reduced dependence of Afghanistan on Pakistan undermines our leverage over the Taliban regime that would have otherwise relied on the Pakistani land routes to remain solvent and manage the local population. Our leverage is what could allow us to influence TTA policy toward TTP. Governing a country needs compromises. It is different than conquering territories and fighting. Our ability to force compromises on TTA is contingent upon our utility to that regime. In this scenario, we have no option but to consider zero-sum thinking.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

Abbas Stanakzai went to the Indian embassy in Qatar to meet the Indian diplomats to allay their concerns vis a vis the use of Afghan soil against Indian interests. On the one hand, we have this happening; on the other, we have daily fire raids emanating from Afghan soil (3-4 in as many days) on our border posts resulting in casualties, while Taliban spokesperson tells us that TTP is our problem and that at a point in future once a political setup emerges, TTA would establish a mechanism (vague) whereby the border region would not be allowed to be used against Afghanistan. The bottom line is that we face attrition daily, while India has not lost a single man until now due to the Afghan endgame. Chahbahar and ancillary infrastructure that linked land routes to the ports through Afghanistan into Iran were allowed to develop without any pressure from our side. Meanwhile, the highly securitized Gwadar has seen terrorist attacks. The regions at CPEC's Western alignment nodes see frequent terrorist attacks even after raising an entire division (SSD). Was it a strategic blunder to "allow" unimpeded development of Chahbahar port (and over the land connecting routes) during the Western presence in Afghanistan that could one day reduce Afghan dependence on Pakistan to access the world? How are we going to exert influence on the Afghan Taliban now to achieve our objectives? Most Western capitals are more than willing to work with TTA. Chahbahar has eroded our leverage as the transit state over Afghanistan as well.

Talban are right now meeting everyone. Meeting Indians in Qatar doesnt imply a special treatment esp. after multiple failed attempts by Indians to reach out for conlusive talks
Talban on their part want to make sure India doesn't fund their opponents in Afghanistan. They also need money, Indians will definitely jump in to provide them what they need.Afgan will have to soon choose between China and India. Pakistan has no money. Chances are they would go with a better bid and we know who wins there.This way they play fairly and also stop Indians from future antagonism.
Diplomacy is always better than barrel of a gun, your fears are illogical.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Talban are right now meeting everyone. Meeting Indians in Qatar doesnt imply a special treatment esp. after multiple failed attempts by Indians to reach out for conlusive talks
Talban on their part want to make sure India doesn't fund their opponents in Afghanistan. They also need money, Indians will definitely jump in to provide them what they need.Afgan will have to soon choose between China and India. Pakistan has no money. Chances are they would go with a better bid and we know who wins there.This way they play fairly and also stop Indians from future antagonism.
Diplomacy is always better than barrel of a gun, your fears are illogical.

Do you mean my fears concerning erosion of leverage over TTA, which would lead them to not stick to their promises on TTP not being allowed to use Afghanistan as the base to launch attacks into Afghanistan? Would you please show how this concern is illogical?

 

[airmarshal]

Just like TTP is not Taliban, the Afghan Taliban are TTA.

TTP was a terrorist group and it was named to confuse Taliban with terrorists.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

Do you mean my fears concerning erosion of leverage over TTA, which would lead them to not stick to their promises on TTP not being allowed to use Afghanistan as the base to launch attacks into Afghanistan? Would you please show how this concern is illogical?

Your concern is illogical because Afghanistan will always need BOTH Iran and Pakistan as its a landlocked country.
The leverage will only erode if WE want it to..It wont come from the other side.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

@airmarshal @blitzkriege, do you believe that the Taliban would, in time, tighten the screws on TTP in Afghanistan? What gives you the confidence to think that other than their statements? They also said we would not attack the cities or takeover by force as part of the Doha deal signed by multiple countries. Yet, we saw what they actually did. Should they be taken on their word on this, considering TTP has fought and bled alongside TTA in Afghanistan? Notice the choice of wording: TTP is Pakistan's problem, not Afghanistan's.

 

[Bouncer]

Abbas Stanakzai

This man was trained in Indian military academy in 80s or something like that. From what I have read, he approached the Indians on his own. Point being, one meeting does not mean anything.

IEA are playing smart for now. And they should--why openly antagonize India? Both IEA and India have no doubts about each other; they can't work together. IEA needs formal or informal recognition at this stage. IMHO, this is not a concern.

What can become a concern for Pak is IEA's laissez faire attitude towards TTP till date and their tendency to maybe maybe view TTP in their own image--that would be a mess. But we have to keep in mind our establishment has not applied any real pressure either and they have quite a few options to exert pressure. I think they might be waiting for things to settle down in Kabul i.e. who emerges in what position of power before moving forward.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

TTP is Pakistan's problem, not Afghanistan's.

I think there is no doubt about this statement that TTP causes problem in Pakistan not Afghanistan.
What he is saying in this interview is an answer to a question whether TTA ameer will ask TTP to stop its activity
His reply is, that they dont have control over these people. They should follow the afghan tta ameer if they say have taken bait on but if they dont there maybe some reasons they are revolting and its Pakistan that has to find and fix those on ground reasons (inside Pakistan not Afghanistan). We will make sure they dont operate from our side.
Its a perfect reply, imagine if TTA ameer asks TTP to stop and TTP stops altogether. This will damage repute of TTA among Pakistanis as it builds a thought that all this could have been done earlier and many lives could have been saved. But we know practically its not possible unless our enemy plays that way.So Pakistan having TTA ask TTP stop its activities is a bad move on our part.

as for Doha Deal, Americans violated it first by attacking Talban via B-52 so it crumbled,

 

[Pak Nationalist]

This man was trained in Indian military academy in 80s or something like that. From what I have read, he approached the Indians on his own. Point being, one meeting does not mean anything.

IEA are playing smart for now. And they should--why openly antagonize India? Both IEA and India have no doubts about each other; they can't work together. IEA needs formal or informal recognition at this stage. IMHO, this is not a concern.

What can become a concern for Pak is IEA's laissez faire attitude towards TTP till date and their tendency to maybe maybe view TTP in their own image--that would be a mess. But we have to keep in mind our establishment has not applied any real pressure either and they have quite a few options to exert pressure. I think they might be waiting for things to settle down in Kabul i.e. who emerges in what position of power before moving forward.

My concern is a reduction of TTA's reliance on us. If that happens, I do not think we could extract what we require from them. Their leadership most probably has moved out of Pakistan. We can't use the old pressure tactics.
Everyone here is quite optimistic and most willing to take the TTA on its word. I hope my concerns are unfounded. If these are not, well, this thread would be archived anyways, and maybe we could learn a thing or two then.

 

[SIPRA]

Too early to analyze the situation and make any comment. Wait and See.

 

[TNT]

My concern is a reduction of TTA's reliance on us. If that happens, I do not think we could extract what we require from them. Their leadership most probably has moved out of Pakistan. We can't use the old pressure tactics.
Everyone here is quite optimistic and most willing to take the TTA on its word. I hope my concerns are unfounded. If these are not, well, this thread would be archived anyways, and maybe we could learn a thing or two then.

U have to keep them relying on u to secure ur national interests? If that's true then ur national interests are childish and pathetic. Countries dont rely on a single port or single country. Pakistan itself has larger population than Afghanistan and whole central asian countries combined, so why so insecure? A chabahar port threatens u? Afghanistan link with india and iran threatens u? Thats the typical gangu mentality that we have in Pakistan too. Please dont talk about topics u have no idea about and stick to playing with toy planes.