Is the India growth story over?

[manofwar]

india growth for next year expected about 5%

pak growth close to 5%

so india/pak next year will grow almost the same

India growth for this year is 6.5%
Growth for next year is predicted to be 7.8%.....
In rupee terms, it is much more

 

[Jade]

No, the India growth story is not over. The abysmal growth of 6.5%, the lowest in last 10 years is mostly because of the government inaction. We are a continent size country and cannot afford to have a low growth rate. Growth is the only way India can reduce poverty. Growth is imperative than a luxury. Government it seems is pull up its socks now. Expect some tough measures from the government in coming days.

 

[UKBengali]

This recent article from the Economist, makes the point that India's GDP growth was only really "fast" during the short period from 2004-2007.

India's economy: A Bric hits the wall | The Economist

Only three years. Hardly enough to describe a trend, in fact for most of the past two decades India has been growing consistently at around 5-6%, which seems to be it's "natural" growth rate after their economic reforms.

The economist is a bit of a joke magazine to tell you the truth.

It had predicted in the 1990s that the Chinese economy would grow around 5% a year average in the 2000s. The actual rate was around 10% a year.

Let us look at India since 2003:

Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP Growth 6.9 7.6 9.0 9.5 10.0 6.2 6.6 10.0 7.2


We see an average growth rate of around 8% in the last 4 years and this has been when the West has been in the biggest recession for 80 years.

While the India economy may not be able to grow at 10% a year like the Chinese one, all data indicates that it's current long-term growth is in the 7-8% level.

 

[harpoon]

The Cinderella story is OVER !!!

Atleast we had a story..what about you?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The economist is a bit of a joke magazine to tell you the truth.

It had predicted in the 1990s that the Chinese economy would grow around 5% a year average in the 2000s. The actual rate was around 10% a year.

Fair enough, their "future predictions" obviously have their own bias.

However the point they made there, is simply an observation based on actual past GDP data.

The data clearly shows that India only really grew "fast" during the period between 2004-2007. (By fast I mean at a sustained rate that made them think they might possibly reach double-digit growth in the future).

Three years? Is that really enough to describe any kind of sustained trend?

Or it is just a "one-off blip" as the Economist says?

 

[Hafizzz]

India's growth slowdown: The problems are not in Greece
India's growth slowdown: The problems are not in Greece - The Economic Times

NEW DELHI: It had been another brutal day for the rupee on the foreign exchanges as India's economic crisis escalated and, travelling home from a visit to Myanmar last week, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh summoned journalists on his plane for a briefing.

The one statement he had prepared for the media that night, however, concerned allegations of corruption levelled against him and his cabinet ministers - not the economy.

Quizzed on the Indian currency's precipitous slide to record lows, Singh blamed the global economic slowdown and the euro zone's emergency, and he voiced hope that the G20 would sort these troubles out at a summit in Mexico later this month.

Two days later, when gross domestic product (GDP) data showed India's growth rate had plunged to its lowest level in nine years, Singh's finance minister likewise pointed a finger at "weak global sentiments", as well as the central bank for its tight monetary policy.

But as warning lights flash on India's economic dashboard - with manufacturing output and consumer demand now fading as well as corporate investment, fiscal and trade deficits ballooning and inflation stubbornly high - few buy the line that it's somehow not the government's fault.

"There is so much denial, but almost all of the problems in India are self-inflicted," said Rajeev Malik, senior economist at CLSA Singapore. "The Indian situation is ... an outcome of policy incoherence, a government that's asleep."

Economists say New Delhi's policy inertia and the absence of significant reforms to sustain growth have now turned India's slowdown from a cyclical one to something that is structural or systemic.

The country is now stuck with lower growth than its potential: not the "Hindu rate of growth" of about 3.5 percent that dogged the state-stifled economy before big-bang reforms two decades ago, but a 21st-century version of that, which Malik calls "growth with a government-incompetence discount".

India's growth slowdown: The problems are not in Greece
India's growth slowdown: The problems are not in Greece - The Economic Times

NEW DELHI: It had been another brutal day for the rupee on the foreign exchanges as India's economic crisis escalated and, travelling home from a visit to Myanmar last week, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh summoned journalists on his plane for a briefing.

The one statement he had prepared for the media that night, however, concerned allegations of corruption levelled against him and his cabinet ministers - not the economy.

Quizzed on the Indian currency's precipitous slide to record lows, Singh blamed the global economic slowdown and the euro zone's emergency, and he voiced hope that the G20 would sort these troubles out at a summit in Mexico later this month.

Two days later, when gross domestic product (GDP) data showed India's growth rate had plunged to its lowest level in nine years, Singh's finance minister likewise pointed a finger at "weak global sentiments", as well as the central bank for its tight monetary policy.

But as warning lights flash on India's economic dashboard - with manufacturing output and consumer demand now fading as well as corporate investment, fiscal and trade deficits ballooning and inflation stubbornly high - few buy the line that it's somehow not the government's fault.

"There is so much denial, but almost all of the problems in India are self-inflicted," said Rajeev Malik, senior economist at CLSA Singapore. "The Indian situation is ... an outcome of policy incoherence, a government that's asleep."

Economists say New Delhi's policy inertia and the absence of significant reforms to sustain growth have now turned India's slowdown from a cyclical one to something that is structural or systemic.

The country is now stuck with lower growth than its potential: not the "Hindu rate of growth" of about 3.5 percent that dogged the state-stifled economy before big-bang reforms two decades ago, but a 21st-century version of that, which Malik calls "growth with a government-incompetence discount".

 

[harpoon]

india growth for next year expected about 5%

pak growth close to 5%

so india/pak next year will grow almost the same

But we have a 1.6 trillion economy, while you have a 210 billion economy.

 

[xyxmt]

Superkaif, man, this was not expected from you..........
This is the 7th thread about the same topic.............Haven't people at PDF got anything better to do than argue over Indian Economy( A topic that is Banned by the way)??
If this keeps on going , I suggest another section by the name of Indian slowing Growth to be made.............this will save much time and energy and everyone can select a thread to have pointless discussions in, since no one seems to be in the mood of having constructive ones......

lol...comon man its fun reading it over and over and over
you can open another "Pakistan and terrorism" thread

 

[Hafizzz]

But we have a 1.6 trillion economy, while you have a 210 billion economy.

But you have FAR MORE poor people than Pakistan does.

 

[punjabimunda]

no its not. indian economy faces all the problems like all the economies of the world. and we gill get over it.

 

[UKBengali]

Fair enough, their "future predictions" obviously have their own bias.

However the point they made there, is simply an observation based on actual past GDP data.

The data clearly shows that India only really grew "fast" during the period between 2004-2007. (By fast I mean at a sustained rate that made them think they might possibly reach double-digit growth in the future).

Three years? Is that really enough to describe any kind of sustained trend?

Or it is just a "one-off blip" as the Economist says?

The last 10 years show an average growth rate of 8% a year.

I would think this is reasonable for the future. Not 6% like the Economist now says.

 

[punjabimunda]

But you have FAR MORE poor people than Pakistan does.

u know the more poor u have the faster growth u can have????poverty doesnt stop growth..

 

[KRAIT]

Just close this thread already...soon people will be chanting "Hungry India, Poor India".

 

[Talha Khan Abid]

Indian economy is a big ponzi scehem

 

[harpoon]

But you have FAR MORE poor people than Pakistan does.

Yeah whatever floats your boat.