Is Pakistani economy entering recession?

[Transformers]

1)Kick the US out
2) Get Kashmir and form strong relations with India give them srilanka as gift
3)Get rid of democracy and hang Bilawal just for sake of making a point


Do these and nothing can stop Pakistan from growing again.

 

[Pfpilot]

Oh man, another one of these threads. How can we enter a recession? What is this recession being judged against? We have never even had sustained growth, Pakistan's modern history is one of perpetual economic irrelevancy and recession. We have always been in recession, so unless the current growth is even less than the snail's pace we were growing at before the last phantom economic boom phase, it is actually a continuation of a highly stable economy...by stable I mean consistently terrible.
Pakistan owed its few years of growth to American aid and investment...we cant ever be successful because our government and public is too corrupt, and our institutions too inefficient and uninterested. How long would economic growth last once the US leaves when the law and order situation is terrible, local institutions virtually expect to be bribed and where banks are so reluctant to give out loans that they have virtually brought the country to a standstill. Im sorry, but if I have a business to start, this is nnnot the place I would do so...and that right there is the problem.

 

[Jade]

Oh man, another one of these threads. How can we enter a recession? What is this recession being judged against? We have never even had sustained growth, Pakistan's modern history is one of perpetual economic irrelevancy and recession. We have always been in recession, so unless the current growth is even less than the snail's pace we were growing at before the last phantom economic boom phase, it is actually a continuation of a highly stable economy...by stable I mean consistently terrible.
Pakistan owed its few years of growth to American aid and investment...we cant ever be successful because our government and public is too corrupt, and our institutions too inefficient and uninterested. How long would economic growth last once the US leaves when the law and order situation is terrible, local institutions virtually expect to be bribed and where banks are so reluctant to give out loans that they have virtually brought the country to a standstill. Im sorry, but if I have a business to start, this is nnnot the place I would do so...and that right there is the problem.

Well said. The key to economic growth is strong institutions and diligent political will. Sadly Pakistan doesn’t seem to have one.

 

[blain2]

I never heard Pakistanis sing this tune during the cold war days...so why the hurried reversal?

Because in the cold war days the Americans did not have boots on the ground in the region. After a while, even the most beloved of one's guests starts becoming a burden. There is "mehmaan nawazi" fatigue in Pakistan. ;-)

 

[z9-ec]

Oh man, another one of these threads. How can we enter a recession? What is this recession being judged against? We have never even had sustained growth, Pakistan's modern history is one of perpetual economic irrelevancy and recession. We have always been in recession, so unless the current growth is even less than the snail's pace we were growing at before the last phantom economic boom phase, it is actually a continuation of a highly stable economy...by stable I mean consistently terrible.
Pakistan owed its few years of growth to American aid and investment...we cant ever be successful because our government and public is too corrupt, and our institutions too inefficient and uninterested. How long would economic growth last once the US leaves when the law and order situation is terrible, local institutions virtually expect to be bribed and where banks are so reluctant to give out loans that they have virtually brought the country to a standstill. Im sorry, but if I have a business to start, this is nnnot the place I would do so...and that right there is the problem.

I disagree growth during Musharraf's tenure was not as you say as a result of aid. Sustained high levels of growth were achieved by creating an environment for sustainable growth by ensuring government credibility.

In accordance to your assessment, why has Zardari failed to achieve even higher levels of growth? after all, his government is the recipient of further 1.5 billion USD aid from the US. It all comes down to lack of government credibility, corruption and sheer incompetence. This eventually led to Pakistan being unable to sustain growth post Musharraf.

 

[Abhishek_]

Because in the cold war days the Americans did not have boots on the ground in the region. After a while, even the most beloved of one's guests starts becoming a burden. There is "mehmaan nawazi" fatigue in Pakistan. ;-)

lol well put

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Because in the cold war days the Americans did not have boots on the ground in the region. After a while, even the most beloved of one's guests starts becoming a burden. There is "mehmaan nawazi" fatigue in Pakistan. ;-)

As we've learned ourselves, keep the Americans close, but not too close.

 

[IND151]

As we've learned ourselves, keep the Americans close, but not too close.

i agree. this is why china balances relations between Russia and america.

i wonder why our friends (?)accuse us when we balance relation between Russia and america?

 

[Tshering22]

Regarding the topic, it really can't get worse than it is right now, isn't it? I mean you've hit the rock bottom at the moment. The focus and desire should be to go up from here.

 

[53fd]

Regarding the topic, it really can't get worse than it is right now, isn't it? I mean you've hit the rock bottom at the moment. The focus and desire should be to go up from here.

Even though it's hit rock bottom, & hitting billions of $ losses due to the WOT, the Pakistani economy is growing, instead of shrinking. What does that tell you?

 

[praful]

Inflation should be the biggest worry which is currently clocking 14%. That is huge. forget about growth concentrate on Inflation which is the real monster for any economy.

 

[Pfpilot]

I disagree growth during Musharraf's tenure was not as you say as a result of aid. Sustained high levels of growth were achieved by creating an environment for sustainable growth by ensuring government credibility.

In accordance to your assessment, why has Zardari failed to achieve even higher levels of growth? after all, his government is the recipient of further 1.5 billion USD aid from the US. It all comes down to lack of government credibility, corruption and sheer incompetence. This eventually led to Pakistan being unable to sustain growth post Musharraf.

There is truth to what you are saying but Musharraf didnt create a stable situation as much as he represented stability in himself. You are looking at it completely wrong, Musharraf, as a military leader inspired greater confidence than the civilian leadership before and after him that always operates at the whims of the military general of the time.
Also it was Musharrafs terrible policies and decision making in regards to America and the War on Terror that has landed us in this mess. Many of the most important economic indicators lag behind the real cause of problems. The actions of Musharraf were the precursor for the disaster today. The aid is no longer helpful in keeping the economy afloat because it did its part initially, as the economy has increased quite a bit since then...ofcourse, if you keep increasing the aid incrementally, which is what we seem to survive on, youll be shocked at how well Pakistan will begin to cope with its debt issues.
The problem remains, we have very few sources of revenue for the government, leaving it reliant on aid and remittances.

 

[Jihad]

Riaz should comment here.. Being a Pakistani I would expect him to be more in tune with Pakistan's issues than trying to find loopholes in the Indian economy numbers. But I may be wrong

btw, Pakistanis commenting about "we were oh so good before WOT" is a little similar to a con man commenting about how life was good before he got caught. Obviously every thing was good when Pakistan was able to oppress Afghanistan at will without anyone interfering. But once the bigger boys got involved, Pakistan wasnt able to make hay like before and the realities came in front.. Folks need to get used to the fact that the present situation is more real than the one before 2001 was..

What a useless post.
How and where did we get "caught".
What are you trying to imply?

Yes we were good before WOT, not that we are in shambles now, but the WOT is taking its toll and we pay a heave price for it.
Pakistan was oppressing Afghanistan? Are you kidding me.

So the Americans gatecrashed into our region to liberate Afghanistan from Pakistan?

Wait, I can't even give you a serious response on this.

 

[Jihad]

There is truth to what you are saying but Musharraf didnt create a stable situation as much as he represented stability in himself. You are looking at it completely wrong, Musharraf, as a military leader inspired greater confidence than the civilian leadership before and after him that always operates at the whims of the military general of the time.
Also it was Musharrafs terrible policies and decision making in regards to America and the War on Terror that has landed us in this mess. Many of the most important economic indicators lag behind the real cause of problems. The actions of Musharraf were the precursor for the disaster today. The aid is no longer helpful in keeping the economy afloat because it did its part initially, as the economy has increased quite a bit since then...ofcourse, if you keep increasing the aid incrementally, which is what we seem to survive on, youll be shocked at how well Pakistan will begin to cope with its debt issues.
The problem remains, we have very few sources of revenue for the government, leaving it reliant on aid and remittances.

Did we have any choice back then? Musharraf always wanted the best for his people. And I believe him when he says that. Because he is one of the few corrupt-free and honest people we have around in Pakistan.

Never have I heard or read anything about Musharraf being corrupt or on-going suspicions about his financial well being. That's SOMETHING. A clean slate, an example for the rest of our politicians.

Our economy was growing 7-9% during his tenure, you can't say that we managed that only because of U.S. aid and sanctions being lifted. That's doing injustice to his policies.

Musharraf himself has said he was busy rebuilding the nation untill the U.S. came along.
We still went along just fine, but the problem became even bigger when the war was stretching out and suicide attacks in our country became a daily thing.

I still say that we atleast had a stronger and more respectable image during Musharrafs era.
And we also had the 2nd fastest growing economy. That just to name 1 aspect. Let alone him tackling corruption which is a disease in our society.
I can go on and on.

Fact of the matter is that there was no capable leader during that time, and instead of putting Musharraf down for siding with the U.S.
One must realize that it was a matter of tightrope walking, and as Musharraf said so himself in his book, he mastered this art to perfection.

The entities that have been unmasked in our own country after the U.S. had come crashing down in Afghanistan, are dangerous entities and they need to be destroyed. It has to be now to safeguard the future of millions of Pakistanis and the world at large aswell.

Mixed feelings, had the U.S. not interfered, where would we have been now?
These extremists would still be around wandering in and out of Pakistan.
Though they'd be quiet, if you see how they attack our men, women and children, there's no doubt that if they had not struck us now, they would've done so in the future.

But then again, we'd have more stable progress since 2001 if we simply said NO to the Americans.

OR...we would've indeed been bombed back to the stone age, or get caught in a full fledged war with the U.S.

Who knows, who knows..

Musharraf put Pakistan first, I salute him for that.
Though he was not perfect, he is by far the best we've had so far.

 

[AmberDutt]

What a useless post.
How and where did we get "caught".
What are you trying to imply?

Yes we were good before WOT, not that we are in shambles now, but the WOT is taking its toll and we pay a heave price for it.
Pakistan was oppressing Afghanistan? Are you kidding me.

So the Americans gatecrashed into our region to liberate Afghanistan from Pakistan?

Wait, I can't even give you a serious response on this.

Yup.. you are right.. you were not able to give a serious response at all.. Mate, I am trying to imply that while the trouble fostered by Pakistan in Afghanistan was small enough to stay under the radar, every thing was ok and the taliban supported by Pakistan provided it with a vassal state and all the ill effects of that regime were insulated from Pakistan. But post 9/11 when big boys like NATO and USA got pulled in and started pressuring Taliban in Afghanistan, the logical spill of the taliban was back to its mother country i.e. Pakistan and hence the insulation got removed. As they say, what goes around, comes around. So while WOT is resulting in a lot of losses for Pakistan, its Pakistan only that is to be blamed for WOT. Even if USA was a partner in crime in creating the Mujahids, Pakistan can not run away from its role and hence the repercussions of that role...