Is dollar going to touch 180 PKR after IMF bailout?

[Zhukov]

Fiscal deficit drives state bank lending, which drives inflation, which drives interest rate and if not appropriately managed will drive current account deficit ... this is economy 101
The reason why IMF wants both...

1-You can never have Fiscal Surplus in Developing countries. You always have deficit to keep Higher Growth rate. Fiscal Policy is different
2-State bank printing money (Or Local Borrowing) is a must, But it must be coupled with Economic growth for development.UK have Printed more money then Pakistan( they have done more internal Borrowing)
3-Interest rates have nothing to do with Fiscal Deficits, Its monitory Policy Tool from State bank to control Lending Trends.
4-IMF want you to manage your Fiscal and Monitory Policy so that you achieve the desired Growth rates and other economic Goals so that at the time of maturity you are able to pay back their loans.
Any ways i am not here to class anyone on economics here or counter anyones concepts or beliefs on economics. Believe what you have studied or read i have no problem with it Brother.

Un till and Unless don't put breaks on Imports, Your Businessman don't start spending on Business development more then luxuries. Be it Quid e Azam Reincarnate Ruling Pakistan you will never get out of this S*** Show no metter how you abuse the rulers

 

[Afterburner]

If that happen , that will break Pakistani economy.... Dollar at 142 now , just go out and check how hard this hit common(150+ Million) Pakistanis ……… As soon as it hit 150 many small business will go bankrupt and if it hits 160 or below , that will be end for t least (100+ million) Pakistanis ..

May Allah Curse Pakistani elite (all types) , they destroyed Pakistani economy for their personal gains..

This is a very flawed way of thinking. The businesses that will be affected (at least affected the most) will be the ones that are based on imports. If you build an empire on a faulty business model (in this case, the heavy reliance on imports and close to nothing in exports), people will suffer, but in the long run it will stabilize the economy and make it more sustainable. Meaning that people will build businesses that actually create value in society, and not just buy cheap from abroad and sell it expensive here.

 

[Zhukov]

If the rupee has intentionally been devaluated to discourage imports (like Japan does) then it's good but I doubt it's just that.

We have a managed Exchange rate policy where we decide the rate of Rupee against Dollar. Its not Free Floating or Fixed/Pegged. Its exactly that.

 

[ziaulislam]

1-You can never have Fiscal Surplus in Developing countries. You always have deficit to keep Higher Growth rate. Fiscal Policy is different
2-State bank printing money (Or Local Borrowing) is a must, But it must be coupled with Economic growth for development.UK have Printed more money then Pakistan( they have done more internal Borrowing)
3-Interest rates have nothing to do with Fiscal Deficits, Its monitory Policy Tool from State bank to control Lending Trends.
4-IMF want you to manage your Fiscal and Monitory Policy so that you achieve the desired Growth rates and other economic Goals so that at the time of maturity you are able to pay back their loans.
Any ways i am not here to class anyone on economics here or counter anyones concepts or beliefs on economics. Believe what you have studied or read i have no problem with it Brother.

Un till and Unless don't put breaks on Imports, Your Businessman don't start spending on Business development more then luxuries. Be it Quid e Azam Reincarnate Ruling Pakistan you will never get out of this S*** Show no metter how you abuse the rulers

1. Ofcourse but you want ti run it at 3-4% rather than 7%
2.eh? You are saying rwo different things ..you wil print money if there is productivity ..i am talking about doing mr dar tactics printing money when you have no productivity
3. Interest rates are for inflation control(tightening moentry policy = less printing) ..inflation is from printing money..printing money is from fiscal deficit ..i am trying to make it simple..it much more complicated
4. Ofcouse but i will add IMF wants you to avoid default so member states don't lose markets or get in trouble

 

[CHACHA"G"]

I doubt it..the economy was destroyed by common man asking for corrupt govt..why blame elite for corruption when common man praise it and tolerates it

common man have nothing to do with any thing ……. they only trust …… Just like they trusted Quid-e-Azam(Fruit Pakistan) …. then they trusted Ayub Khan(Dams and Industrialization + Bhatto) , then Bhoto(71 , Nationalization Distraction of Bureaucracy and atom bomb) , then Zia(atom bomb , drug and AK-47 , Sectarian divide and Nawz),, then BB(Mr 10% , electricity from oil , no dam , no new industry , beginning of import base economy), then Nawaz(Beginning of systematic Corruption , More import base economy , beginning of Bureaucracy corruption " making it bu-ro-crazy") , and then comes Mushi (his list is to long ) after that lotters only lotters and they are all plundering Pakistan ..
Common man is suffering , but enough intelligent to not to turn Pakistan into Syria or Libya....

 

[AfrazulMandal]

Irrespective to what your government says, protect your lifetime of savings by buying more dollars or gold.

And destroy the Pakistani economy?

 

[ziaulislam]

common man have nothing to do with any thing ……. they only trust …… Just like they trusted Quid-e-Azam(Fruit Pakistan) …. then they trusted Ayub Khan(Dams and Industrialization + Bhatto) , then Bhoto(71 , Nationalization Distraction of Bureaucracy and atom bomb) , then Zia(atom bomb , drug and AK-47 , Sectarian divide and Nawz),, then BB(Mr 10% , electricity from oil , no dam , no new industry , beginning of import base economy), then Nawaz(Beginning of systematic Corruption , More import base economy , beginning of Bureaucracy corruption " making it bu-ro-crazy") , and then comes Mushi (his list is to long ) after that lotters only lotters and they are all plundering Pakistan ..
Common man is suffering , but enough intelligent to not to turn Pakistan into Syria or Libya....

Its not about trust its about right and wrong nobody blames them for trusting nawaz..i blame them for voting for a KNOWN THEIF۔۔the hillmetal hudaybaya are all 1990s cases..the surey palace is 1990 case

So why would you trust a thief again in 2008 and 2013? Why? Dont tell me they didnt know..i was teenager and i knew!

With respect to dictators ayub, zia and mushi each brought a curse because of what they were(dictators) but they were not theifs

Irrespective to what your government says, protect your lifetime of savings by buying more dollars or gold.

Stupid thought ..invest the money ..dollar itself has return of less than 0.5%

With most investment you can get 10-20% return..that's what i am getting even devaluation you will get more with a lag

 

[Zhukov]

1. Ofcourse but you want ti run it at 3-4% rather than 7%
2.eh? You are saying rwo different things ..you wil print money if there is productivity ..i am talking about doing mr dar tactics printing money when you have no productivity
3. Interest rates are for inflation control(tightening moentry policy = less printing) ..inflation is from printing money..printing money is from fiscal deficit ..i am trying to make it simple..it much more complicated
4. Ofcouse but i will add IMF wants you to avoid default so member states don't lose markets or get in trouble

1- I was talking about developing countries successfully moving forward and the norm the world follow. Not us Particular
2- That S*** Head simply ruined the economy. What you are saying is related to fiscal policy or internal economy. How our Government Earns much less from Public sector and Taxes/Duties, And Spends much more and to spend more they Print money. Is this what you are talking about right? Yes this is literally a crime.
But I was talking about balance of Trade and Balance of Payments specifically.

3-Printing money to Cover either of the two

1. Fiscal Deficit, Paying Salaries to Government servants, Financing Development projects etc
2. Circulating more money into money and capital markets

It was the second thing that was happening in early 2000s which our business community ruined by taking loans from money markets and spending on non productive spending. I believe i am clear now.
​

4-Agreed

My point was why are these People jumping so much on current Situation when it is crystal clear what happened in past 15 years. Why Government kept Dollar value low and kept imports cheaper when Trade Deficit was mounting and people themselves didn't cared as long as they were enjoying on borrowed money literally, when they kept taking foreign loan. And now they are talking doom and gloom?

 

[CHACHA"G"]

This is a very flawed way of thinking. The businesses that will be affected (at least affected the most) will be the ones that are based on imports. If you build an empire on a faulty business model (in this case, the heavy reliance on imports and close to nothing in exports), people will suffer, but in the long run it will stabilize the economy and make it more sustainable. Meaning that people will build businesses that actually create value in society, and not just buy cheap from abroad and sell it expensive here.

woow ,,,,,,,, do you have any idea how much Pakistan depends on imports ?????/ Do you even know how many Pakistanis will be jobless ????/ Do you even know how inflation will going to hit ????? One example Jut look at Drug(medicine) price hike in 6 months ….
lol how easy you talk..... just like Pakistani elite ::::::
First Govt have to Punish all those elite which build import base economy ….. then economical establishment (kill them all) and then start over again .,, start building things locally ….
Dear Sir common man (150+ million) did nothing wrong , they have to buy basic needs , it was and is Govt Job to make sure the get it cheap and good quality . Sir G we are importing Pampers and toys (common man have to buy them , now tell me Govt need Rocket tech to build them in house ?? )

So why would you trust a thief again in 2008 and 2013? Why?

Again , Ask Pakistani judicial system , Pakistani establishment and Pakistani media mafia ..
it is better if I keep my mouth shut …… They are too deep in our system … Now they don't need Pakistani common man and their votes and trust .. Story is long changed for these mafias .. If you can understand what I mean..

 

[Skull and Bones]

Stupid thought ..invest the money ..dollar itself has return of less than 0.5%

With most investment you can get 10-20% return..that's what i am getting even devaluation you will get more with a lag

With devaluation of local currencies, the valuation of domestic companies will also fall. Unless people are investing in S&P or similar index funds outside of Pakistan.

And destroy the Pakistani economy?

At least the family will have something left with after the whole ordeal.

 

[ziaulislam]

woow ,,,,,,,, do you have any idea how much Pakistan depends on imports ?????/ Do you even know how many Pakistanis will be jobless ????/ Do you even know how inflation will going to hit ????? One example Jut look at Drug(medicine) price hike in 6 months ….
lol how easy you talk..... just like Pakistani elite ::::::
First Govt have to Punish all those elite which build import base economy ….. then economical establishment (kill them all) and then start over again .,, start building things locally ….

Imports based upon a rupee that has no value..this is simply put is notging but taking a loan that will have to be returned at 7%(doubleing time 10years)


Now fine, we heard your cry and want to help imports ..and thus in 2016-2018 were exactly doing this but guess what.. who is going to lend you anymore? All banks have refused,Noone wants to?


Now do you have a work around ..to run your imports on fake rupee you needs loan but everyone has now refuse to lend..tell me magic to print dollars please apparently you have it..i am listening please tell us

Pakistanis are behaving like 2 years kid crying infront of poor parents to buy an expensive toy

 

[Dark-Destroyer]

Tough time requires tough decisions and unfortunately we need these because we are our own worst nightmare

 

[ziaulislam]

With devaluation of local currencies, the valuation of domestic companies will also fall. Unless people are investing in S&P or similar index funds outside of Pakistan.



At least the family will have something left with after the whole ordeal.

Nope inflation will take over and out run the devaluation ..this is what happens if rupee is overvalued but fundamentals are intact/real gdp growth happening

And destroy the Pakistani economy?

A poor advise

 

[CHACHA"G"]

Pakistanis are behaving like 2 years kid crying infront of poor parents to buy an expensive toy

buying medicine , pampers , basic life needs are "crying" for you ?????? this gave your mental level.....

Now fine, we heard your cry and want to help imports ..and thus in 2016-2018 were exactly doing this but guess what.. who is going to lend you anymore? All banks have refused,Noone wants to?

No you don't have to hear my cry …… My cry is why not build things locally !!! Why Govt allow 1.2+ B$$ mobile import ???? Who is the importer ?? who is the ;local Pakistani beneficiary ?? Answer this ??

Now do you have a work around ..to run your imports on fake rupee you needs loan but everyone has now refuse to lend..tell me magic to print dollars please apparently you have it..i am listening please tell us

Yes we have to work around , we have to change import base to local production base and export base economy …
And Yes I have the magic …. Hang all the elite , take all their wealth ….. kill them all.. Start over again..

 

[Afterburner]

1. I completely agree that Pakistani economy is heavily depend on imports ( not that it should be).

2. I agree that solutions to such complex problems that have brewed over last two decades would not be simple and one must not take a reductionist approach.

3. I agree that the elite class benefitted from this system.

4. However, I do not agree with the assertion that the common man is blameless in this situation. We, the common people, have also constructed our lives, businesses, employment around these flawed principles.

5. It is very easy to blame the "others" in every scenario, that's human nature. It helps us sleep at night. But in reality, all of us share the blame. And as long as we, personally do not take responsibility, chances of change are negligible.

6. I like giving examples so here is one. A family is sailing the seas on a boat and suddenly someone pokes a hole in the boat. What do you think is the most important thing to do at that moment. Debate on who poked the hole, or even if we know who did it, should we just tell that person to go fix it while the rest just sit on side. Absolutely no, everyone on board should be trying to plug the hole. And once the hole is plugged, then you can decide whose fault it was, and then even make him pay for the repairs when you reach land.

Pakistan is our boat, we need to plug the hole, all hands on deck. Once this temporizing measure is done, then we can decide who was responsible and tax them more, get them convicted, put them in jail. BUT FIRST WE PLUG THE HOLE

woow ,,,,,,,, do you have any idea how much Pakistan depends on imports ?????/ Do you even know how many Pakistanis will be jobless ????/ Do you even know how inflation will going to hit ????? One example Jut look at Drug(medicine) price hike in 6 months ….
lol how easy you talk..... just like Pakistani elite ::::::
First Govt have to Punish all those elite which build import base economy ….. then economical establishment (kill them all) and then start over again .,, start building things locally ….