Is China's rise unstoppable?

[ChinaToday]

A clear majority of Brits, Germans, Spaniards, Canadians, French people, Poles, Australians and South Koreans believe China will supplant America as the world's leading superpower (and quite a few of those think it's already happened).

However, for all the African land and minerals that China has gobbled up, only a minority of Africans believe China will become more powerful, in a political and economic sense, than the US.

And there is similar scepticism about the sustainability of China's rise in much of the middle east and parts of South America.

As for Russians, well they are split down the middle - which may tell you something about Russia's complicated and uneasy historical relationship with both the US and China.

These are among the intriguing results of a poll conducted by Pew Research of almost 38,000 people in 39 countries between March and May this year.

And when it comes to the economic aspect of power, there are some equally striking results.

For example, 44% of Americans named China as the world's most powerful economy, rather more than the 39% who picked out the US as No 1 in this narrower sense.

And a clear majority in the UK, Germany, France, Spain, the Czech Republic and Australia describe China as "the world's leading economic power".

So who is right - the Europeans who already doff their caps at China's might, or the Africans who see the Chinese buying up their assets but are doubtful that America will ever be knocked off the apex of power?

Well right now, and as I implied last month, African mild scepticism about the seemingly unstoppable rise of China looks quite smart.

For two reasons: there is a gentle economic recovery taking hold in the US, that could and should accelerate.

But more germanely, and as I've said before, there are reasons to believe that China's much more rapid growth could slow down sharply and even judder to a halt.

That kind of hard landing (to use the ghastly economists' cliche) is not what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it expects in its so-called Article IV consultation on the People's Republic of China.

The IMF still expects China's economy to expand 7.75% this year - although it acknowledges downside risks.

What is striking is that IMF data confirms earlier unofficial estimates of the rapid - and many would say dangerous - pace of lending since the global financial crisis of 2008.

In four years, what the IMF calls "social financing" - loans that aren't on the government's official balance sheet, so more or less what we would call private sector lending - rose by more than 70% of Chinese GDP to almost 200% of GDP in total.

And big contributors to this credit explosion were relatively unregulated "shadow banks", which makes it more likely that corners were cut when the lenders assessed whether the borrowers would ever be able to repay.

To put this into some kind of context, the IMF also shows that net domestic credit in China as a percentage of GDP is high for a country with its relatively low GDP per head.

So its private sector indebtedness is higher than in the US and Germany - where income per head is between eight and nine times greater.

Chinese indebtedness is much higher than for other fast-growing economies, such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Brazil, Russia and India.

Which implies that in recent years China became too dependent on credit-fuelled growth.

And there has been evidence that China's government and central bank have recognised that this lending binge has become dangerous, and is taking steps to curb it.

But if in a low growth world, if credit creation in China is no longer going to generate growth, what will?

Of course, China's credit boom has been very different from what undermined the foundations of our economy in the binge years before the 2008 crash.

In our case, it was households that borrowed too much.

The structural flaw in China's economy has been a surge in credit-fuelled investment of unprecedented proportions.

Again, as IMF data shows, investment represents almost 50% of GDP, massively more than any developed or developing economy. There are no examples in history that I can find where this kind of boom hasn't ultimately led to a crash - although it is never possible to scientifically predict the timing of the reckoning.

What China needs to do (to state the blinkin' obvious) is to boost consumption - which is also at record lows as a share of GDP compared with both advanced economies and emerging ones.

Managing that shift from excessive investment to sustainable consumption in China represents one of the economic challenges of our age - and, since China has recently been the world's engine of growth, it matters almost as much to us as it does to the Chinese.

BBC News - Is China's rise unstoppable?

 

[ChinaToday]

U.S. Seen Losing to China as World Leader

SHANGHAI—People in the U.S. and China view each other with increasing suspicion, and many others around the world see the U.S. losing its place to China as the leading economic and political power, a new public opinion poll shows.

According to a survey of around 38,000 people in 39 countries released on Thursday by the Washington-based Pew Research Center, majorities or pluralities in 23 of the nations surveyed said China either has replaced or eventually will oust the U.S. as the world's top superpower. The Chinese don't question their nation's eventual dominance, but Americans are split on the question, the poll found.

The Pew survey is the latest indication that the global impact of China's economic expansion over the past three decades and the 2008 U.S. economic stumble are reordering perceptions about China—the world's most populous nation—and the U.S.—its biggest economy.

"China's economic power is on the rise, and many think it will eventually supplant the United States as the world's dominant superpower," the report concludes.

The new data show a shrinking number of Americans, 47%, believing the U.S. will continue to hold its lead over China, compared with 54% in 2008. By contrast, about two-thirds of Chinese say their country has overtaken the U.S., or eventually will, and 56% say China deserves more respect, Pew found.

The data also suggest deepening mutual suspicion. Only 37% of people in the U.S. view China favorably, similar to the 40% of Chinese who hold a positive view of the U.S. For both countries, the percentages for favorable views have declined since Pew asked the questions in 2008.

Less than a third of the Chinese surveyed described their nation's relationship with the U.S. as cooperative, down sharply from 68%, figures that hew closely to plummeting opinions in China about U.S. President Barack Obama.

Some 23% of Chinese describe the U.S. relationship as hostile. Pew said China is the only non-Islamic country where more than half the people, 54%, hold an unfavorable opinion of Americans.

Still, China has work to do on its own reputation, the survey found. The U.S. commands a 63% favorable rating around the world, and the survey found it is far more often considered by other nations as a partner compared with China, which gets a favorable rating from only half those surveyed elsewhere.

Where China holds positive images is in areas such as science and technology. Such so-called "soft power" influences on others are a particularly strong aspect of the generally positive international image the U.S. holds. "Science and technology are China's most popular soft power," Pew concludes. It found the biggest positive impact across Africa and Latin America. About 59% of Africans appreciate China's business methods, Pew said.

Achievements don't necessarily make China popular. Pew detected widespread distaste for China's military and human rights policies and little interest in its cultural exports.

Still, outright anti-Chinese sentiment is limited around the world, according to Pew. The country is least popular among Japanese, 5% of whom hold a favorable view, with most doubting China will emerge the dominant superpower. While Japanese sentiment follows tension with China over territorial issues, Germans too have grown less positive about China, despite strong exports to the country.

Beijing's strongest supporters include Malaysia, Pakistan, Kenya, Senegal and Nigeria, along with Venezuela, Brazil and Chile. In pockets of Asia, Africa and South America, China is considered a partner, though to most countries China is neither a partner nor an enemy.

In more and more areas, China generates similar sentiment as the U.S. Neither gets good marks for considering how their policy affects citizens elsewhere, for example.

Younger and better-educated people tend to be more positive about both nations. "China's greatest global asset in the future may be its appeal among young adults around the world," Pew found.

China is already the world's leading economic power, say many citizens of nations the U.S. considers its closest allies, including both the U.K. and Germany. People living closer to China, including Japan and South Korea, say the U.S. is at the top; those nations report growing suspicion about China's military ambition. "One of the major challenges for China's global image is that few," only 11 countries surveyed, "believe the Chinese government respects the personal freedoms of its people," the survey found.

More People Think China Will Eclipse U.S., New Pew Poll Shows - WSJ.com

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

For example, 44% of Americans named China as the world's most powerful economy, rather more than the 39% who picked out the US as No 1 in this narrower sense.

And a clear majority in the UK, Germany, France, Spain, the Czech Republic and Australia describe China as "the world's leading economic power".

So who is right - the Europeans who already doff their caps at China's might, or the Africans who see the Chinese buying up their assets but are doubtful that America will ever be knocked off the apex of power?

Well right now, and as I implied last month, African mild scepticism about the seemingly unstoppable rise of China looks quite smart.

I agree with this.

It it interesting that while all the Western countries WRONGLY say that China has the largest economy in the world... the Africans are being a lot more pragmatic and thoughtful concerning China's rise.

We should also be more pragmatic and thoughtful when it comes to managing our rise. And avoid all the sensationalism and exaggeration whenever possible.

 

[Developereo]

There is a darker interpretation: the poll results reflect hidden fears and jealousies.

The dominant West fears and exaggerates the threat to its domination.

The rest of the world is silently jealous and hopes China doesn't make it, for it would make their own failure all the more stark, and would make it harder to keep believing that the West is keeping everybody else down. In other words, misery loves company.

 

[jhungary]

It's not the matter that China growth/rise is unstoppable. Rather in order for China to stay healthy (As a country) they HAVE TO Continue to grow and cannot stop. It will be very hard to imagine what kind of thing will happen if China are going to level out now.

One of the Mechanism China is using is part of the growth (eg money generated) in the Eastern Seaboard or developed city were to supplement the not so outstanding province and city. Where the central government take money out from taxes made thru the richer province and develop the poorer. Or in Chinese own word 拉上補下. Without those money throwing in, people from the poorer province will be flocking into richer province enmasse.

With the economic growth now, there are still more city under than line than above the line, it will have an unthinkable consequence if China's growth would be levelling out, then there will be no to little money going directly to the poor province.

There is a darker interpretation: the poll results reflect hidden fears and jealousies.

The dominant West fears and exaggerates the threat to its domination.

The rest of the world is silently jealous and hopes China doesn't make it, for it would make their own failure all the more stark, and would make it harder to keep believing that the West is keeping everybody else down. In other words, misery loves company.

Actually, it is stupid to say the west don't want China make it......

If China fail (I am saying if) you are talking about the MOST POPULATED country fail, who is going to take care of the crap afterward, think of refugee and debt and where are they gonna go if China do fail.

Also if China fail, I don't see how the west will still be unaffected. Yes we will be better off but we will still take the toll, and to say we want China fail is the same as I want to hit your head with my head. Strike you at the same time striking me.

 

[kena]

It's not the matter that China growth/rise is unstoppable. Rather in order for China to stay healthy (As a country) they HAVE TO Continue to grow and cannot stop. It will be very hard to imagine what kind of thing will happen if China are going to level out now.

One of the Mechanism China is using is part of the growth (eg money generated) in the Eastern Seaboard or developed city were to supplement the not so outstanding province and city. Where the central government take money out from taxes made thru the richer province and develop the poorer. Or in Chinese own word 拉上補下. Without those money throwing in, people from the poorer province will be flocking into richer province enmasse.

With the economic growth now, there are still more city under than line than above the line, it will have an unthinkable consequence if China's growth would be levelling out, then there will be no to little money going directly to the poor province.



Actually, it is stupid to say the west don't want China make it......

If China fail (I am saying if) you are talking about the MOST POPULATED country fail, who is going to take care of the crap afterward, think of refugee and debt and where are they gonna go if China do fail.

Also if China fail, I don't see how the west will still be unaffected. Yes we will be better off but we will still take the toll, and to say we want China fail is the same as I want to hit your head with my head. Strike you at the same time striking me.

Limit less growth is called cancer.... you know what it leads to....

To dream of infinite growth on a finite Earth is a sign of madness...

 

[Genesis]

Who wants to Stop China? To what end?

how can Chinese growth level out now, we are no where near developed. We are not even semi developed.

Also look at the great depression. If China falls, that will happen. China at this moment is the one pushing and dragging the world economy forward, now if we stop pulling, instead, we fall put our weight on the problem. How could that be anything but bad.

One thing to remember is we have stock in Western markets, just as the West have interests in China. If all walmart in China closes or starbucks, you think they would go unaffected.

We are connected, we are not the Soviets, we are not isolated from the world, we are right in the thick of things.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Limit less growth is called cancer.... you know what it leads to....

To dream of infinite growth on a finite Earth is a sign of madness...

Countries are actually growing non-stop. Even if you account for all the financial collapses, the overall trend is constant forward growth.

Some countries grow faster than others. China's economic growth seems fast, but considering our massive population and low base, our growth is actually just OK.

Smaller countries like South Korea can become developed after only a few decades of 7-8% growth.

But China, our population is so massive that even after 3 decades of 10%+ growth, we are still a developing country.

 

[thesolar65]

O.K why no body asked me about my opinion?
@Topic. No body will stop China for sure. But if it will be stopped at any time it will be because of its own weight and deeds. We know what happened to all those might empires/Emperors from the history, be it Alexander, chengizh khan, France, British, Spanish then Soviets, then USA and now China and the next ones will also follow the same trend. In modern times we have seen mighty business house/ Banks to collapse. At some point of time if the successors or the next generation of rulers are not worthy then down fall happen Dinosaurs did get extinct. But that should not make us happy. We must strive to do well without getting in to competition and in our own way not imitating others and try not to get greedy or putting others into difficult. We also have a goddess named Laxmi (Goddess of wealth). And She is also called Chanchalla(Unstable) i.e she can move from one place to another in a short time. When a nation or person gets rich enough they get complacent, and that's what is happening to USA right now and they take everything for granted.

 

[Okemos]

China is unstoppable if foreigners don't mess with us just like Mongols and Manchus invaded and stopped our natural historical development. Chinese people are very industrious and resourceful and will succeed all over the world.

No more opium wars, no more foreign invasion, no more imported ideology, be it communism from Germany or democracy from Greece (lol), just let China grow on its own and develop its own political system.

 

[kena]

I agree with this.

It it interesting that while all the Western countries WRONGLY say that China has the largest economy in the world... the Africans are being a lot more pragmatic and thoughtful concerning China's rise.

We should also be more pragmatic and thoughtful when it comes to managing our rise. And avoid all the sensationalism and exaggeration whenever possible.

It is very disheartening that China has completely lost it in its mindless pursuit of Western style growth.

The Chinese civilization's place in the world is irreplaceable. While Indian spirituality was more focused on the abstract and was somewhat other worldly, the Chinese had always combined it with an earthy practicality. The Middle Kingdom was to be the axis of stability and wisdom.Somewhere, along the path of experimenting -- first with the Great Leap and the Cultural Revolution, and now in the mad pursuit of the capitalistic growth model, the Chinese seem to have kicked out their ancient culture from their lives and the entire world is much poorer for it. Chinese cities, and the people living in them, look like clones of a western city. While in India, with all the poverty and squalor, our past and culture is always with us.

Even if China succeeds in reaching its growth goals - which is doubtful in a largely resource depleted, post peak oil world, they may just find themselves as joyless, consumerist robots like the citizens of the western nations they so desperately want to emulate.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

It is very disheartening that China has completely lost it in its mindless pursuit of Western style growth.

The Chinese civilization's place in the world is irreplaceable. While Indian spirituality was more focused on the abstract and was somewhat other worldly, the Chinese had always combined it with an earthy practicality. The Middle Kingdom was to be the axis of stability and wisdom.Somewhere, along the path of experimenting -- first with the Great Leap and the Cultural Revolution, and now in the mad pursuit of the capitalistic growth model, the Chinese seem to have kicked out their ancient culture from their lives and the entire world is much poorer for it. Chinese cities, and the people living in them, look like clones of a western city. While in India, with all the poverty and squalor, our past and culture is always with us.

Even if China succeeds in reaching its growth goals - which is doubtful in a largely resource depleted, post peak oil world, they may just find themselves as joyless, consumerist robots like the citizens of the western nations they so desperately want to emulate.

Lost culture?

Listen, every year during the Qingming Festival, I visit the graves of my ancestors to pay my respects, the same as my ancestors did thousands of years ago.

Today, I write in the same Chinese script in which Sun Tzu used to write the Art of War over 2500 years ago.

Who else can make that claim? How can I have lost touch with my roots and my culture if I can pick up a book written by Sun Tzu or Confucius and read it in the same characters that I am using to write today?

 

[Developereo]

Actually, it is stupid to say the west don't want China make it......

Read my post again: I didn't say the West doesn't want China to make it. I said it is apprehensive about dilution of its domination.

It is the non-dominant countries, as shown in the poll, who don't think China will make it, and that's partly due to jealousy and schadenfreude. Thirty years ago, they were all in the same boat. If China rises to the top, these other countries will have to ask themselves tough questions as to why they are still lagging. It won't be easy to blame it all on The (White) Man.

 

[kena]

Lost culture?

Listen, every year during the Qingming Festival, I visit the graves of my ancestors to pay my respects, the same as my ancestors did thousands of years ago.

Today, I write in the same Chinese script in which Sun Tzu used to write the Art of War over 2500 years ago.

Who else can make that claim? How can I have lost touch with my roots and my culture if I can pick up a book written by Sun Tzu or Confucius and read it in the same characters that I am using to write today?

Please feel happy if you think that script and a few random festivals is all there is to culture. I understand that you can never realize what has been lost because you have never seen it in the first place.

But Chinese cities and its people look to be a complete clone of Western countries to an outsider. Hardly a shred of Chinese element is found there.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Please feel happy if you think that script and a few random festivals is all there is to culture. I understand that you can never realize what has been lost because you have never seen it in the first place.

But Chinese cities and its people look to be a complete clone of Western countries to an outsider. Hardly a shred of Chinese element is found there.

You've obviously never been to China then. My favourite city outside of HK is Beijing, and there is culture to be found there in every single street corner, buildings that have existed for thousands of years.

Also, the national language of China is Chinese.

Whereas the de facto official language of India is English.

How does the Government of West Bengal communicate with the state of Tamil Nadu? They use English.

When Manmohan Singh addressed the nation after the Mumbai attacks, he spoke in English.

Hu Jintao on the other hand never spoke English in public. Or even in private, as far as I know.

Let's not forget, the most powerful person in India is a white European Catholic. Is your ancient culture characterized by European Catholic rulers?