Is Another Indo-Russian Defense Deal About to Falter?

[Lone Ranger]

India and Russia recently failed to agree on moving forward on a joint air transport project.

A joint Indo-Russian project to develop a new medium-airlift military transport aircraft, the UAC/HAL II-214 Multi-role Transport Aircraft (MTA), is “almost shelved,” according to an Indian Defense Ministry source interviewed by Defense News.

The recent December 23 meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to break the “stalemate” over the MTA program, a joint venture for which both countries have co-founded a new company, the Multi Role Transport Aircraft Ltd., established by Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL), both of which invested $300 million in the project.

The new transport plane was expected to enter service by 2019. India was planning to purchase 45 and Russia around 100 aircraft. However, as of now, even the detailed design phase has not been worked out between UAC and HAL, despite a signed May 2012 general contract for the development of the aircraft.

“The transport aircraft [project] may be shelved because of three reasons. One is engine and secondly there are some internal conflicts in Russia between various stakeholders which is not allowing the desired progress. Thirdly, life of the AN-32 has been extended and the aircraft (upgraded),” according to a senior Indian Air Force official speaking to Defense News on the condition of anonymity.

“The MTA program is as good as dead, and a global tendering will take place,” he succinctly added. The Indian Air Force is not happy with the selection of the PD-14M turbofan engines and other technical decisions taken by Russian engineers.(Most importantly, India wants the MTA to operate in higher altitudes than the current technical configuration would allow.) The Russian side also wants to increase the program development budget, something that India vehemently opposes.

The senior Indian Air Force official also noted that operational lifespan of the Indian Air Force’s fleet of Antonov AN-32 transport aircraft has been extended from 25 to 40 years.

In 2009, the Indian Air Force signed a contract with Ukrspetsexport Corporation, Ukraine’s state-owned arms trading company, to upgrade its 104 AN-32 transport aircraft and extend their service life. The $400 million upgrades included improved avionics, modernization of the cockpit, and a payload capacity increase from 6.7 to 7.5 ton

Forty aircraft were upgraded in Ukraine, according to IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly, whereas 64 planes were to be domestically overhauled at the Indian Air Force’s base repair depot at Kanpur through 2017.

However, as I reported in March 2015 (See: “Did Ukraine Just Lose 5 Indian Air Force Planes?”), work in Kanpur had to be discontinued due to missing spare parts and the premature departure of Ukrainian engineers. It remains unclear whether work on the aircraft was continued in the following months.

Additionally, India is seeking to replace its aging fleet of 56 Avro transport planes. So far no contract has been awarded to defense firms bidding for the estimated $3.5 billion tender.

The Indian Air Force operates a host of different transport planes including five C-130 J Super Hercules, 17 Iljushin II-76s, a number of Dornier Do 228s, and more than a dozen Boeing C-17 Globemaster IIIs.

During the annual India-Russia summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also failed to resolve an ongoing disagreement between the two countries over the future of a joint fifth generation fighter program (See: “India and Russia Fail to Resolve Dispute Over Fifth Generation Fighter Jet”).

Is Another Indo-Russian Defense Deal About to Falter? | The Diplomat

 

[Abingdonboy]

The chips are falling

@PARIKRAMA @Parul @anant_s @Levina

 

[Beast]

From a logical position. India shall go for Ukarine An-70 and ask for technology transfer.

 

[anant_s]

The chips are falling

@PARIKRAMA @Parul @anant_s @Levina

Frankly its hard to see, what this platform offers that is different from C130J (both have similar 20-22 Ton payload capacity).
with US open to sale of more C130 and the platform having proven its worth in Indian conditions, future of MTA is not looking particularly bright.
In lower end C295 will fulfill role of An 32 et al and in very heavy lift capacity C17 will be the future (hopefully we will still get the required numbers from US reserves).
As harsh it may sound, but Russia is slowly losing out from IAF Transport scene (Airbus is slated to get both Tanker and next generation AWACS platforms) and rest of market is being captured by US.

 

[GreenApple]

...so, we will not see any more Russian new platform in IAF for decade to come...
..Hope IAF and MOD take full advantage of this boon in disguise.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Frankly its hard to see, what this platform offers that is different from C130J (both have similar 20-22 Ton payload capacity).

Well it wasn't purely about the platform but the industrial benefits which, yes, are going to be missed (somewhat) but maybe offset to a degree if India can snatch a C-130 production line for itself.

As harsh it may sound, but Russia is slowly losing out from IAF Transport scene (

There's nothing harsh about it- the Russians have put themselves in this position:

-MRTT- Russian's offered the IL-78MKI at a far higher LCC than the A330
-AWACS (India)- pretty much as above, the A-50 just can't compete with the efficiency, servicability and practicality of the A330
-MTRA- by failing to take on board the user's (IAF) requests (for an engine with FADEC) they left the Indian side with no incentive to progress this project

...so, we will not see any more Russian new platform in IAF for decade to come...
..Hope IAF and MOD take full advantage of this boon in disguise.

Game over for the Russians and they have only themselves to blame.

 

[Grevion]

India does not have much experience in building military cargo planes. This project would have provided a fantastic opportunity for design and development of such military planes in India and that is why this project is so important.
I hope India and Russia will sort out all the differences and the MTA project will be a success in the coming future.
One possible solution is to develop a basic prototype and then customize it for both Russian and Indian demand. But that is easier said then done or else IAF would have thought about it.
Its very important to have multiple source of supply for the defense equipment purchases we cannot just rely on the US for everything and even though France is a trusted partner it wouldn't be a good choice to buy everything from the west.

 

[anant_s]

Game over for the Russians and they have only themselves to blame.

Unfortunately that looks how it is going to be.
Russia has had a very poor track record in after sales services, which had a bad impact on availability of these planes. Further to this the old habit of increasing prices arbitrarily, won't amuse many customers (remember China too had to face this trouble for its own AWACS program).
Since US entered Indian market and India's purchasing capability and options having been increased, its very unlikely that India would approach Russia in this sector anytime soon.
Both Boeing and Airbus are increasing their presence in India in a big way (creation of design centers, maintenance hubs etc) and while this might be aimed right now at civil aviation market, sooner or later owing to commonality of components, Defence aviation sector will benefit as well. this explains why both Boeing and Airbus are winning a lot of contracts.
Maybe its time for Russia to introspect.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

C130xj if india does some smart planning..
And HAL side by side plans for our own MTA.

I see around 75 c130xj and a MII part with assembling in India. It's upto policy makers of USA and India to grab on this unique opportunity and go for the kill..

HAL should go ahead and build a MTA plane and see if we can use say either an updated kaveri engine in 120Kn or how about 4 kaveri engines instead of 2..

@Abingdonboy @anant_s
how about a MTA with either 4 kaveri engines or say 5. You think that may do the trick?
The pd14m is a boosted model at 153kn so 2engines totally 306kn whereas
4 kaveri engines can give us 210kn + thrust and with 5 we can get 260kn +.. May be load factor may decrease by 15%- 20% but we may end up getting a 18-20tonne capabilities jet.. And HAL can take sweet 15 years and have a full fledged indigenous development tag in that with more than 70% from India's own design and manufacturing...
Moreover we can have far more surety with our own altitude tests and results to fine tune the end product.

You think such a idea is feasible..

 

[anant_s]

C130xj if india does some smart planning..
And HAL side by side plans for our own MTA.

I see around 75 c130xj and a MII part with assembling in India. It's upto policy makers of USA and India to grab on this unique opportunity and go for the kill..

HAL should go ahead and build a MTA plane and see if we can use say either an updated kaveri engine in 120Kn or how about 4 kaveri engines instead of 2..

@Abingdonboy @anant_s
how about a MTA with either 4 kaveri engines or say 5. You think that may do the trick?
The pd14m is a boosted model at 153kn so 2engines totally 306kn whereas
4 kaveri engines can give us 210kn + thrust and with 5 we can get 260kn +.. May be load factor may decrease by 15%- 20% but we may end up getting a 18-20tonne capabilities jet.. And HAL can take sweet 15 years and have a full fledged indigenous development tag in that with more than 70% from India's own design and manufacturing...
Moreover we can have far more surety with our own altitude tests and results to fine tune the end product.

You think such a idea is feasible..

A lot would depend on how Kaveri GT program proceeds.
By the looks of it, its seems to be on the backburner for quite some time now and that could mean two things
1. Either the program has altogether been abandoned
2. We are looking for some collaboration. Maybe Massive investment in Rafale program could have some assurances from Snecma to help out fledging Kaveri program as well.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Russia has had a very poor track record in after sales services, which had a bad impact on availability of these planes.

Indeed, India took the unprecedented step of going to third party vendors (as opposed to OEMs) for a number of spares of Russian-orgin aircraft in IAF service things got THAT bad

Since US entered Indian market and India's purchasing capability and options having been increased, its very unlikely that India would approach Russia in this sector anytime soon.
Both Boeing and Airbus are increasing their presence in India in a big way (creation of design centers, maintenance hubs etc) and while this might be aimed right now at civil aviation market, sooner or later owing to commonality of components, Defence aviation sector will benefit as well. this explains why both Boeing and Airbus are winning a lot of contracts.
Maybe its time for Russia to introspect.

An nice analysis, it is a combination of factors that have put India into a very different postion today and Russia's inability to respond effectviely is going to cost them BIG.

+ I would say that it is interesting that you mention Boeing and Airbus. These two entites have massive commercial aircraft fleets aroud the world and in India which they are able to leverage to clinch Indian deals (P-8, MRTT, BBJ, C-17 etc). Russian defence products are very niche in nature and there i almost no scope for them to utilise such competitive advantadges. Russia has slipped behind.

C130xj if india does some smart planning..
And HAL side by side plans for our own MTA.

I see around 75 c130xj and a MII part with assembling in India. It's upto policy makers of USA and India to grab on this unique opportunity and go for the kill..

By far the most attractive substitute I can think of at this point IF India can get a production line of its own for C-130s, that would eb a HUGE leap foreward for the aviation industry in India. I think there is scope within the Indo-US relationship to pursue this option also.

HAL should go ahead and build a MTA plane and see if we can use say either an updated kaveri engine in 120Kn or how about 4 kaveri engines instead of 2..

how about a MTA with either 4 kaveri engines or say 5. You think that may do the trick?
The pd14m is a boosted model at 153kn so 2engines totally 306kn whereas
4 kaveri engines can give us 210kn + thrust and with 5 we can get 260kn +.. May be load factor may decrease by 15%- 20% but we may end up getting a 18-20tonne capabilities jet.. And HAL can take sweet 15 years and have a full fledged indigenous development tag in that with more than 70% from India's own design and manufacturing...
Moreover we can have far more surety with our own altitude tests and results to fine tune the end product.

Didn't the K10 eventually demonstrate 80KN dry thrust on the FTB?

That said, it is still massively insufficent and whilst it may (MAY) be possible to mount 4 Kaveri on the MTA as opposed to 2 PD14M, further devlopment still needs to be given to upthrust the Kaveri and here I think @anant_s is right- SNEMCA's help can/should be sought.

80KN may be sufficent for the AURA but not for larger/manned aircraft.


But the entire idea of continuing this deal in parrelel to going for the XJ seems a little optimistic- it would be the optimal solution though.

 

[Ahimsa]

Good riddance from this project---Russian were shoving their old engine with new name which could need replacement every few 100's hours.

Time is ripe for India/HAL/DRDO to tie up with Ukraine and develop 100+ seater military jet!

 

[Mirza Jatt]

- Price hikes
- Delayed delivery of assets
- Bad after sales services
- Arm twisting to bundle one project with another
- Greedy for money from India into projects

Cant blame IAF.. Russia themselves to be blamed here. I think we should congratulate current Govt. of India for being very assertive about things it wants an how they want it.

 

[T-72M1]

what a sad state of affairs, can anyone even imagine the US letting us in on programs like the F-22 or 35 when even Israel and Japan got thumbed down wrt the 22 ? With options on the table now for IAF, though, going with proven tech superiority and after sales seems in India's best interest.

India still needs Russia more than the other way around, hope the FGFA happens, and may the Akula lease sail through.

 

[Ahimsa]

what a sad state of affairs, can anyone even imagine the US letting us in on programs like the F-22 or 35 when even Israel and Japan got thumbed down wrt the 22 ? With options on the table now for IAF, though, going with proven tech superiority and after sales seems in India's best interest.

India still needs Russia more than the other way around, hope the FGFA happens, and may the Akula lease sail through.

Lets learn to accept some ground reality that china is closer to russia than India

1. India doesnt need another akula which requires us to invest 1 billion$.
We need to copy akula and make our own SSN with whatever limited capability we have!
Lets ask France to help in exchange for Areva reactors
Russian wont share yassen class with us--
In return, russian wants us to buy 3 frigates for 3 bill$ while we can make similar frigates at 50% prices

2. Russian engine are crap---We will indeed buy Pak-Fa but after tough negotiation